BananaRepublic
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- Joined
- 9 Jul 2011
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- 777
Constructed 1992-1996 so 24 - 28 years.
The 319s being cascaded to Northern are about the same age. (Constructed 1987-1990)
Your maths is a out by a little bit.
The Class 373's are already 18 - 22 years old and would be between 30 and 35 years old by the time the first phase of HS2 opens (London - Birmingham) in 2026/27. That's when they are due to be finally retired anyway.
They would be 35 to 40+ years old (if still in existence) when phase two is due to open.
I'm doubtful there can be a comparison with stock like the 319's, as high speed trains appear to generally have a shorter expected working life.
There's no Holy Grail in achieving very long lives for trains. If they achieve their designed and economic life expectancy, job done. It doesn't matter if that is 30 years or 30 weeks. Realistically, it's usually between 25 and 35 years.
There's no magical need for them to be kept running for longer periods of time and quite frankly, if you have to base the economics of a new build fleet on more than 30 years use, then something is drastically wrong in the cost of the trains and in the thinking behind the economic model employed.