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General Election 2015 - Thoughts/Predictions/Results

How are you voting in the General Election

  • Conservative

    Votes: 25 18.0%
  • Green Party

    Votes: 15 10.8%
  • Labour

    Votes: 45 32.4%
  • Liberal Democrats

    Votes: 16 11.5%
  • Plaid Cymru

    Votes: 3 2.2%
  • Scottish National Party

    Votes: 9 6.5%
  • UK Independence Party

    Votes: 13 9.4%
  • Other: Right Leaning Party

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Other: Left Leaning Party

    Votes: 1 0.7%
  • Other: Centrist Party

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Other: Other

    Votes: 2 1.4%
  • Not Voting

    Votes: 7 5.0%
  • Spoiling Ballot

    Votes: 3 2.2%

  • Total voters
    139
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47802

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Well, in 24 hours the booths will be open, after what has surely been just about the longest campaign ever. But in the whole of that time no-one has canvassed me, even though here we are voting for both an MP and the local council. Each of the parties has sent out a couple of leaflets, and that is the extent of the information. But then this is regarded as a safe seat, so my views and my vote don't really count for anything. If this were a one-off, it might just be one of those things. But in the whole of my 50-year "voting life" I have never been canvassed, probably because I have always lived in safe seats (where the result of the elections has meant that I have never felt myself represented).

Whatever we wake up to on Friday morning, will this election mark the point where there is enough public pressure to ensure that we really do have to move to an electoral system where every vote counts rather than just those in marginal seats and perhaps of multi-member constituencies, so that many more of us might be able to feel that we do have a representative in the nation's parliament (whatever the nation may turn out to be in the not-too-distant future)?
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---


No-one would dispute that Scotland is a country in its own right, a nation. If an overwhelming majority (say the classic two thirds) of voters voted SNP, could anyone deny the SNP the right to make a unilateral declaration to turn that clearly-defined nation into a nation-state? They won't because they'd lose too much English money!

Well as far as the voting system goes, right wingers traditionally wanted the first past the post system but now some have gone to a minority party ie. the UKIP clowns they are now moaning about the system, we had a vote about changing the electoral system not that long ago and it got massively rejected.

SNP well did we not just have an independence vote and it was rejected end of.
 
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TheNewNo2

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For what it's worth, my prediction is for a Tory plurality, and them trying to form a minority government, which would be swiftly no-confidenced out the door. Labour minority I think will be the end result, possibly in coalition with Lib Dems, but short of a majority.
 

Senex

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.... we had a vote about changing the electoral system not that long ago and it got massively rejected.

SNP well did we not just have an independence vote and it was rejected end of.

What we had a vote on was changing from FPTP to AV, because that was what the party politicians wanted to foist on us even though most experts don't see AV as an acceptable or proper proportional system. The electorate, seeing that this was an attempt to palm them off with something, rightly massively rejected the AV proposal.

The SNP situation is much more interesting, in that the party's main plank was independence, but since getting that rejected in the referendum it just seems to have gone from strength to strength -- maybe in part because of a very justifiable loathing of the political establishment, represented in the case of Scotland by a deeply-entrenched Labour Party.
 

WelshBluebird

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What we had a vote on was changing from FPTP to AV, because that was what the party politicians wanted to foist on us even though most experts don't see AV as an acceptable or proper proportional system. The electorate, seeing that this was an attempt to palm them off with something, rightly massively rejected the AV proposal.

Of course the problem is that the politicians have taken the no vote to be a no for electoral reform. And can use the "but we offered you change" line in argument. Totally missing the point I agree, but a lot of people will listen to that line and agree with it.

The SNP situation is much more interesting, in that the party's main plank was independence, but since getting that rejected in the referendum it just seems to have gone from strength to strength -- maybe in part because of a very justifiable loathing of the political establishment, represented in the case of Scotland by a deeply-entrenched Labour Party.

And they will just continue to get stronger IMO. Especially now we are seeing this anti scotish / anti SNP rhetoric from the right. After promising "better together" and that they would give Scotland more of what it wants, the government has now spent the last few weeks essentially saying the opposite and that Scotland is somehow dangerous and its will (to have SNP MPs represent it) should be ignored.
 

St Rollox

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Well as far as the voting system goes, right wingers traditionally wanted the first past the post system but now some have gone to a minority party ie. the UKIP clowns they are now moaning about the system, we had a vote about changing the electoral system not that long ago and it got massively rejected.

SNP well did we not just have an independence vote and it was rejected end of.

Maybe Scotland will never get independence but i'd take a good guess they will reach Home Rule within the next decade.
I also predict the Labour Party in Scotland will go it's own way and also go for full Home Rule.
 

me123

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Lots of things have happened in Scotland. As you've mentioned, I think we're all sick of the political establishment. Labour in particular being so deeply entrenched as you've stated, are going to bear the brunt of it. They've had a particularly poor showing in recent years, and I really struggle to remember the last time I've heard anything positive from them. Only today, I've already had yet another scaremongering election leaflet pop through the post threatening that if we don't vote for them we'll get Mr Cameron back. No positive messages on there at all, just another "vote us or else". And I think the Scottish population is getting tired of it. It's also been very difficult to see Labour joining with the other parties purely to stop the SNP. Labour and the SNP are generally quite close in their overall political viewpoint, and to see Labour working so fervently with the Tories has only really served to show them in a negative light.

It's also worthwhile remembering that independence wasn't overwhelmingly rejected. It was a close tough contest, with 45% of the population supporting it, and it appears that the 45% haven't wavered since September. Since then, support for the SNP hasn't really dipped much below 45% of the electorate.

There's been a few reasons for this. "Yes voters" are concentrating their support behind the SNP, ignoring the other pro-independence parties (Scottish Greens and Scottish Socialists for example - who have both been extremely quiet in this campaign). I would be cautious of saying the SNP support equates to support for independence, and the two are not necessarily the same, but I think it's highly unlikely that those who support independence would support any other party. With such strong support, people are realising that a vote for the SNP isn't a wasted vote, and as an SNP supporter tomorrow I'm confident we'll see a record number of SNP MPs returned to parliament which will prove the point. I think there's definitely an anti-Labour and anti-Westminster protest vote as well, which I think is not necessarily the same as anti-Union sentiment. The thought of the SNP shaking up Westminster political elite only encourages me to vote for them, and I'm not the only one. The threats from other quarters about the "danger" of the SNP only serve to reassure me that I'm going to vote for the right party tomorrow.

I think that if the SNP do take >50 seats tomorrow (which I think is certainly possible looking at the polls), suddenly the main parties in Westminster will show a renewed passion for electoral reform, now that they've got something to gain from it. Now that the two party system is well on its way out the door, FPTP is becoming utterly ludicrous.
 

Oswyntail

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....And they will just continue to get stronger IMO. Especially now we are seeing this anti scotish / anti SNP rhetoric from the right. After promising "better together" and that they would give Scotland more of what it wants, the government has now spent the last few weeks essentially saying the opposite and that Scotland is somehow dangerous and its will (to have SNP MPs represent it) should be ignored.
I think you have slightly missed the point. The rhetoric is far from anti-Scottish, and not even anti-SNP (though that is part of the rough and tumble of elections, surely). The "danger" comes when you have a UK government that relies for its position on another party - much smaller in number - whose raison d'etre is to break up the UK. The end result could be a stump of a tail wagging the dog over a high cliff.
 

DynamicSpirit

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What we had a vote on was changing from FPTP to AV, because that was what the party politicians wanted to foist on us even though most experts don't see AV as an acceptable or proper proportional system. The electorate, seeing that this was an attempt to palm them off with something, rightly massively rejected the AV proposal.

To be fair, I don't think the AV was 'politicians wanted to foist on us' - it was more a case of, the LibDems wanted a referendum on full PR, the Conservatives wanted no change, and AV was was the only system that the Conservatives were prepared to offer the LibDems a referendum on as part of the coalition deal.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Well, in 24 hours the booths will be open, after what has surely been just about the longest campaign ever. But in the whole of that time no-one has canvassed me, even though here we are voting for both an MP and the local council. Each of the parties has sent out a couple of leaflets, and that is the extent of the information. But then this is regarded as a safe seat, so my views and my vote don't really count for anything. If this were a one-off, it might just be one of those things. But in the whole of my 50-year "voting life" I have never been canvassed, probably because I have always lived in safe seats (where the result of the elections has meant that I have never felt myself represented).

That is somewhat sad, and you're right that it is a sad reflection on our electoral system.

Having said that, it's possible that not having been canvassed isn't just because of being in a safe seat, but is down to lack of volunteers on the part of all parties. Personally, I've just spent several hours this morning delivering leaflets (for Labour) in a very safe Labour seat, and during the last month I've canvassed and seen other people putting in a huge effort canvassing. But in the end, membership of most parties is not high. Most campaigning locally is done by volunteers who are giving up their free time to do it, and I would guess that in huge numbers of constituencies there would be no more than 30-40 people for each party willing to volunteer to a significant extent in that way - often, fewer. Somehow those people between them have to get round an electorate of - typically - 70 000. And in the space of two months that's clearly not possible. It's possible that's also the reason for the non-response to Ainsworth's letters that Ainsworth mentioned here.

Being marginal does of course make a huge difference to the resources that the national parties put into seat, and it probably makes some difference at local level (I imagine that if I lived in a seat that Labour stood the slightest chance of losing, I'd have put in a bit more time than I have done, although it wouldn't have been massively more. But that's not a lack of caring or anything - it's a question of there only being so many hours in the day to divide up between work, family, leisure and other activities).
 
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St Rollox

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Leaflets from each party at my house

Labour 10
SNP 0
Tories 0
LibDems 0

Since every seat in Scotland is now a marginal i'm not sure what that tells me.
 

TheKnightWho

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I have received a grand total of nothing from anybody, although the fact that I live in an extremely safe Labour seat (Oxford East) and in large university accommodation it's probably fair to say that it was unlikely I'd come into contact with flyers directly.

EDIT: Apparently not quite so safe as it used to be, but hardly a key marginal.
 
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pemma

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I have received a grand total of nothing from anybody, although the fact that I live in an extremely safe Labour seat (Oxford East) and in large university accommodation it's probably fair to say that it was unlikely I'd come into contact with flyers directly.

When I was at University (between 2003 and 2006) the Green party were actively targeting students but none of the main parties targeted students.

On the local council the ward with the most students living in it missed out on getting Green Councillors by just 1% of the vote. The ward with the second most students in it was represented by Green Councillors. So you can see why they were targeting students who might have thought the Greens have no chance of getting elected.

I'm surprised that Labour aren't trying to get student votes in your area given a lot of students traditionally supported the Lib Dems but since the Coalition increased tuition fees the Lib Dems have lost a lot of their student support.
 
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Buttsy

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I have received a grand total of nothing from anybody, although the fact that I live in an extremely safe Labour seat (Oxford East) and in large university accommodation it's probably fair to say that it was unlikely I'd come into contact with flyers directly.

EDIT: Apparently not quite so safe as it used to be, but hardly a key marginal.

I live in the adjacent Oxford seat and have had flyers from all parties standing, though here the seat was taken by Conservative from Lib Dem with a 176 majority last time round, but this time it's likely to stay Con as the Lib Dem vote will probably collapse.
 

TheKnightWho

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When I was at University (between 2003 and 2006) the Green party were actively targeting students but none of the main parties targeted students.

On the local council the ward with the most students living in it missed out on getting Green Councillors by just 1% of the vote. The ward with the second most students in it was represented by Green Councillors. So you can see why they were targeting students who might have thought the Greens have no chance of getting elected.

In the county council wards the Greens do well in Oxford city, what with a large number of Oxford colleges being in some wards. In 2013 I happened to be on the south side of the High Street, which meant I was in Isis which ended up with Labour getting 52% of the vote. If I'd been living on the main college site on the north side of the High Street I'd've been in University Parks ward where the Greens got 43%. It's funny how things change so much in such small geographical areas.

Incidentally my favourite result in that election was Witney South & Central, which went Labour for the first time in probably forever as the Tories and UKIP split the vote almost 50/50 between themselves and allowed the Labour candidate in by 10 votes. My only thought was "I bet you wish you'd voted for AV now!"

--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
I live in the adjacent Oxford seat and have had flyers from all parties standing, though here the seat was taken by Conservative from Lib Dem with a 176 majority last time round, but this time it's likely to stay Con as the Lib Dem vote will probably collapse.

I've now just moved into Oxford West & Abingdon, but I'm still regsitered to vote in Oxford East because I moved after voting registration ended. Very frustrating.
 
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WelshBluebird

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I think you have slightly missed the point. The rhetoric is far from anti-Scottish, and not even anti-SNP (though that is part of the rough and tumble of elections, surely). The "danger" comes when you have a UK government that relies for its position on another party - much smaller in number - whose raison d'etre is to break up the UK. The end result could be a stump of a tail wagging the dog over a high cliff.

If you don't think there has been an anti-Scottish rehtoeric then I question where you have been looking. It very much has been anti-Scottish. Talk of "tartan barmy", talk of a government that included representatives voted for by Scotland being somehow undemocratic.
At the end of the day Scotland is currently part of the UK. If the Scots vote for SNP MP's to represent them in Parliament, then there it would be undemocratic for them NOT to be allowed to have some kind of influence on government if elected in enough numbers.

I have no doubt all of this has furthered the "them and us" position in Scotland and has driven even more people into potentially voting SNP.

I get the worries about the fact the SNP want to break up the UK, but that worry has almost played second fiddle to the OTT headlines and front pages.
Now you can argue that having them as part of the government would be bad (because of the policy of wanting Scotland to leave the UK), but I can just as easily argue that having the Tories as part of the government is bad because of the majority of what has happened in the last 5 years. That is part of what politics is about. Agreeing or disagreeing with policies and outcomes.
 
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47802

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If you don't think there has been an anti-Scottish rehtoeric then I question where you have been looking. It very much has been anti-Scottish. Talk of "tartan barmy", talk of a government that included representatives voted for by Scotland being somehow undemocratic.
At the end of the day Scotland is currently part of the UK. If the Scots vote for SNP MP's to represent them in Parliament, then there it would be undemocratic for them NOT to be allowed to have some kind of influence on government if elected in enough numbers.

I have no doubt all of this has furthered the "them and us" position in Scotland and has driven even more people into potentially voting SNP.

I get the worries about the fact the SNP want to break up the UK, but that worry has almost played second fiddle to the OTT headlines and front pages.
Now you can argue that having them as part of the government would be bad (because of the policy of wanting Scotland to leave the UK), but I can just as easily argue that having the Tories as part of the government is bad because of the majority of what has happened in the last 5 years. That is part of what politics is about. Agreeing or disagreeing with policies and outcomes.

Clearly you cannot say that any involvement of the SNP is undemocratic, however I personally don't want to see them form part of government because of the fact that they don't believe in the very existence of a UK government, and of course the Scottish Parliament has significantly more power than the rest of the UK and will no doubt get more power going forward.
 
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St Rollox

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If you don't think there has been an anti-Scottish rehtoeric then I question where you have been looking. It very much has been anti-Scottish. Talk of "tartan barmy", talk of a government that included representatives voted for by Scotland being somehow undemocratic.
At the end of the day Scotland is currently part of the UK. If the Scots vote for SNP MP's to represent them in Parliament, then there it would be undemocratic for them NOT to be allowed to have some kind of influence on government if elected in enough numbers.

I have no doubt all of this has furthered the "them and us" position in Scotland and has driven even more people into potentially voting SNP.

I get the worries about the fact the SNP want to break up the UK, but that worry has almost played second fiddle to the OTT headlines and front pages.
Now you can argue that having them as part of the government would be bad (because of the policy of wanting Scotland to leave the UK), but I can just as easily argue that having the Tories as part of the government is bad because of the majority of what has happened in the last 5 years. That is part of what politics is about. Agreeing or disagreeing with policies and outcomes.

We'd like you stay, better together and all that.
We just don't want you anywhere near the levers of power.

Would that be about right?
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Clearly you cannot say that any involvement of the SNP is undemocratic, however I personally don't want to see them form part of government because of the fact that they don't believe in the very existence of a UK government

And how exactly would the SNP break up the UK by supporting a non Tory government?
 

47802

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We'd like you stay, better together and all that.
We just don't want you anywhere near the levers of power.

Would that be about right?
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---


And how exactly would the SNP break up the UK by supporting a non Tory government?

Am I actually saying that I think not, as I said I don't think the SNP should form part of a UK government as a point of principle because they don't believe in its existence.
 

cb a1

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Am I actually saying that I think not, as I said I don't think the SNP should form part of a UK government as a point of principle because they don't believe in its existence.
Given the SNP refuse to form any coalition with the Conservative party and the Labour party have refused to form any coalition with the SNP, I don't think you need to worry that the SNP will be part of the UK government.

I hope you don't believe though that they should not be allowed to form part of the UK parliament?
 

47802

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Given the SNP refuse to form any coalition with the Conservative party and the Labour party have refused to form any coalition with the SNP, I don't think you need to worry that the SNP will be part of the UK government.

I hope you don't believe though that they should not be allowed to form part of the UK parliament?

Of course not. and if do end up with the SNP waging the Labour tail I hope we don't end up with yet another referendum for at least 5 years i.e. not in this parliament, otherwise its just going to get ridiculous, although I have no doubt the SNP will be pushing for virtual independence in all but name which gets around the pound problem, but having to accept such as UK defence policy and Trident.

At time of the referendum vote I was of the view that the UK should stay as is, but I now think the Scots should just P** **f, and that comes from someone who had a Scottish mother.
 
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WelshBluebird

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Clearly you cannot say that any involvement of the SNP is undemocratic, however I personally don't want to see them form part of government because of the fact that they don't believe in the very existence of a UK government, and of course the Scottish Parliament has significantly more power than the rest of the UK and will no doubt get more power going forward.

And I have no problem with that. I disagree (because I think devolution is good for all of the UK), but people are entitled to their opinions.

My problem is with the Tory and ring wing rhetoric about a government supported by the SNP being undemocratic or a constitutional crisis etc etc.

I am also not convinced by the arguments that the SNP could blackmail Labour. Have the Lib Dems blackmailed the Tories? Not really. Sure some Tory policies haven't got through, but by and large the Lib Dems have realised that being able to influence policy is better than saying "not unless we get x".

We'd like you stay, better together and all that.
We just don't want you anywhere near the levers of power.

Would that be about right?

Sounds exactly like what we have been hearing.
And remember, this is coming from a Welsh person living in England and who has benefited a great deal from the fact we are a united country. So imagine how a die hard Scot who either voted for or was almost convinced to vote for independence feels?
 
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Starmill

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Got a 'begging letter' from John Leech, the Liberal Democrat at Manchester Withington last week. He said in his time in office he had taken on just over 37000 cases to try to assist his constituents and claimed that was a lot more than most MPs. He said he understood the disillusionment with the party nationally, but that he had always tried to stand up for his constituency even if it were against party policy, highlighting that he voted against Vince Cable's Bill to increase tuition fees. I'm perfectly prepared to believe him, and I have more faith in him that the Labour candidate who looks likely to win (and who, Mr Leech claims, as a Manchester City Councillor has always been 'good' and never stood up to his party).

I know that I align most closely with the Lib Dems, and that I support almost all of their own polices.

All the same, as a student, I will not vote for the lying ******** and don't believe a word Nick Clegg says. I reject the explanation that it was the 'responsible' thing to do in some way. Maybe I'll go back to voting Lib Dem once Nick Clegg and Vince Cable have departed.
 
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I am also not convinced by the arguments that the SNP could blackmail Labour..

Neither am I.

Which is why I find David Cameron and Boris Johnson's attitude to the SNP unsettling.

Just before the independence referendum vote, Westminster politicians went to Scotland and campaigned for Scotland to stay in the Union. Some of those same Westminster politicians are now suggesting that the SNP lacks the legitimacy to participate in any UK government. And other politicians are proposing "English votes for English laws", which would exclude Scottish MPs from taking part in some UK parliamentary votes. If we have a UK parliament for the Union, shouldn't the SNP and Scottish MPs be allowed to participate on an equal basis ?

In the coming parliamentary session, Anglo-Scottish political relations will be paramount. In 2016, Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP will be looking to the renew their mandate in the Scottish parliamentary elections. Let's not irritate them any further. It may give the SNP the motive and excuse to hold a 2nd independence referendum.
 
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90sWereBetter

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Can someone explain to me why the right wing media think Ed Miliband eating a bacon sandwich is A) important and B) funny? Because for some reason, I don't think either category fits it. I guess they must be running scared at the thought of a potential Labour government this weekend.

I do hope News International gets the kicking it deserves.
 

Starmill

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Can someone explain to me why the right wing media think Ed Miliband eating a bacon sandwich is A) important and B) funny? Because for some reason, I don't think either category fits it. I guess they must be running scared at the thought of a potential Labour government this weekend.

I do hope News International gets the kicking it deserves.

Because we should totally choose who we vote for based on who eats with 'elegance' shouldn't we?
 

ExRes

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Can someone explain to me why the right wing media think Ed Miliband eating a bacon sandwich is A) important and B) funny? Because for some reason, I don't think either category fits it. I guess they must be running scared at the thought of a potential Labour government this weekend.

I do hope News International gets the kicking it deserves.

Why pick the 'right wing media' and the Miliband bacon sandwich ?, are you saying that this type of schoolboy 'humour' is not shared by the left wing media and any other type of media you can think of ?
 

table38

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Can someone explain to me why the right wing media think Ed Miliband eating a bacon sandwich is A) important and B) funny? Because for some reason, I don't think either category fits it. I guess they must be running scared at the thought of a potential Labour government this weekend.

Because this is a man who could, potentially, be representing the country on the world stage. And a man who (despite pretending that he hasn't), has, like every other politician, courted the media for countless photo opportunities.

If the future leader of this country becomes a laughing stock, that reflects on us as a country. It shouldn't, but it's no use ignoring the reality!
 

radamfi

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Does anyone in Scotland complain about the voting system for the Scottish Parliament and wish they had FPTP?
 

DarloRich

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Because this is a man who could, potentially, be representing the country on the world stage. And a man who (despite pretending that he hasn't), has, like every other politician, courted the media for countless photo opportunities.

If the future leader of this country becomes a laughing stock, that reflects on us as a country. It shouldn't, but it's no use ignoring the reality!

This may come as a shock but Dave is considered a plummy Tory pasty faced doughboy laughing stock amongst large sections of the community but it hasn't done him any harm ;)
 
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