Party leaders in 2020 election

We're in a somewhat unusual situation where there is a relatively high probability that the current leaders of England's two main parties won't be contesting the 2020 election as leader.

Cameron is almost certain to step down prior to the next election, and it seems the race for leadership is a two horse race between Osborne and Boris Johnson. I see the outcome of the leadership contest as dependent on the path of the global economy in the next five years. Osborne offers continuity, but if there was another global recession prior to 2020, it would invariably discredit Osborne and make the "continuity" less appealing. Thus I could see the "charisma"/bluster of Johnson leading him to victory, however at present my money is firmly on Osborne.

There are also doubts as to whether Corbyn will 'make it' to 2020, I'm unsure as to whether he actually wants to lead the party into the next election, especially given his age. My view is at Corbyn will try and establish his "new politics" over the next couple of years and then stand aside for a successor who will carry the party along roughly the same path. Lisa Nandy (shadow Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change) who incidentally gave an excellent account of herself on Question Time yesterday, seems a likely successor, touted as someone able to present a more " acceptable" face of socialism.

Very interested to see other people's predictions.

Who will lead the Lib Dems (if anyone will)? :P

I think that in 2020, the leaders of the major parties will be as follows:

* Tories - Soo
* Labour - Sweep
* Lib Dems - Sooty

I guess Richard gets to be SNP or something.

Nah, I'd have it:

Labour - Sooty
Tories - Soo
Lib Dems - Sweep
SNP - Scampi

I think Corbyn will lead a 2020 election if given the chance and I think it depends on how Labour party do in the polls and elections going forward, you would expect them to do badly now they have deserted the centre ground but he does seem to have some sort of appeal, although certainly not to me that's for sure.

The Tory party I think its more complex, first of all there is the EU referendum, if we vote to stay would you want a Euro Sceptic Leader and vice versa, do the Tories go for the centre ground that now seems to have been vacated by Labour, or do they go more to the right to try and counteract UKIP.

Will UKIP be a spent force if the country votes to stay in the EU, that didn't seem to happen with the SNP, will the issue be put to bed if we stay in or will the anti's be like the SNP and try and get a new vote every 5 to 10 years .

Lots of variables as yet, certainly I would see Johnson as much more of a vote winner than Osbourne, one problem for Osbourne is that comes across as being very Public School/Posh, and while Cameron may be just as Public School /Posh he doesn't come across as such, and of course as has already been said how the economy does will likely impact on Osbourne.

Then there is the North South divide, is Boris too much of LSE man, while Osbourne is at east making some attempt with the North.

47802 said:

Will UKIP be a spent force if the country votes to stay in the EU, that didn't seem to happen with the SNP, will the issue be put to bed if we stay in or will the anti's be like the SNP and try and get a new vote every 5 to 10 years .

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Yes, you make a very intriguing comparison. Following the independence referendum it seems that the SNP vote increased precisely because there was seen to be no imminent threat of another referendum. Thus unionists began to disassociate the SNP with independence, and instead saw relatively left wing policies which they agreed with, but more significantly they were viewed as a party able to give Scotland a voice in Westminster, in a way in which Labour could not. A similar thing could happen with UKIP if we vote to stay in the EU - people may look towards other policies, which would presumably focus on a drastically reducing immigration. Again, if UKIP becomes increasingly disassociated with the idea of leaving the EU, would pro European voters be attracted to their other policies - perhaps UKIP will see a swell of votes like the SNP. Conversely, would a vote to leave the EU produce drastically different effects, they would have essentially achieved their main aim - would they now be seen as a party lacking in identity and policy?

Though given that Farage is likely to be the biggest voice of the 'out of the EU' campaign, a vote to stay in the EU would likely lead to the end of his leadership of UKIP. The effect of this in the election is unclear, and much would depend on who is chosen to replace him. Is Farage a vote winner? Well, he's a divisive character, so arguably his 'charisma' loses as many votes as it gains him.

TheNewNo2 said:

I think that in 2020, the leaders of the major parties will be as follows:

* Tories - Soo
* Labour - Sweep
* Lib Dems - Sooty

I guess Richard gets to be SNP or something.

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Rupert Murdoch is Matthew

All of them puppets for the bankers and oligarchs who really control the country

As others have said depends what happens in EU referendum and which sides of the fence various leaders come down on in the run up to it. Johnson and Corbyn have both made eurosceptic voices - if both actually campaign to come out and the vote goes that way - Cameron will be forced to resign, Johnson will come leader and Corbyn will probably stay on. If UK votes to stay in then Osbourne's hand is strengthened and is likley to become leader and Corbyn may step down nearer the election to let someone younger have a go.

The 2016 Scottish, London Mayoral and council elections will be a big pointer to how things might pan out. I can see Labour and the Lib Dems recovering slightly in Scotland (from their general election positions), Zac Goldmith winning the London election and the Tories losing ground to Labour in the council elections - so all sides will say they are making progress. I see the Lib Dems are slowly recovering their position as the party of the protest vote in council bi-elections albeit from a low level and not actually winning many seats.

backontrack said:

Nah, I'd have it:

Labour - Sooty
Tories - Soo
Lib Dems - Sweep
SNP - Scampi

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I guess it's a bit racist, but I went with Sooty as the Lib Dem because he's already the right colour.