It might be useful to compare a short surviving branch line to nowhere big with this proposal. St Erth to St Ives?
Another Cotswold town that has doubled in size since the 1970s - Witney - also has a campaign for rail reinstatement, because the A40 and B4044 into Oxford are now choked with traffic. People drive to Hanborough for an eight-minute train ride into Oxford because the congestion and resulting road journey times are now so bad.
Let's try and keep the statistics using a consistent metric shall we? So 305,000 p.a = about 900 / day.
Then let's look at what the other factors might be - could it perhaps be Witney (popn 20,000) close by?
Now, like you say, technically there are stations closer to Witney than Charlbury, however Finstock (the closest station) gets 1 train / day (as do Coombe, Ascott Under Wychwood and Shipton), weekdays only. The alternative would be Hanborough - but that doesn't look much closer and means travelling towards Oxford.
Of course the other place which might be giving custom to Charlbury is Chipping Norton - about the same distance from Chipping to either Charlbury or Kingham but Charlbury would mean less time on the train.
Add together Chipping, Witney and Charlbury and you're looking at a population of about 30,000.
I'm not saying there is a single % of population will use local rail station figure, because there isn't. It will vary depending on the area - for example in London it will be *much* higher. Which is why I used Long Buckby as an example - it's a rural station with major destinations each way, it gets most of its custom from a local non-rail connected town and there are decent road connections.
But to pretend that Cirencester can justify or sustain a viable rail link, given there is reasonably good local access to the rail network seems somewhat improbable.
i would have thought from an engineering point of view it should be fairly easy to do. The whole route is fairly flat.
Then combine it all together. Cirencester is all but 8 miles from the former "end of the line" at Fairford.
High-Speed (60mph) tram is the way to go with this. Start at Kemble, bit of street running through Cirencester, then onwards to Fairford, Carterton, Witney and Oxford. Use legacy formations where suitable, new formations where not.
The Cirencester-Lechlade section would potentially be a touch passenger light, but this would be mitigated by having a single depot at RAF Fairford.
Reliable public transport does drive growth though, and with a potential journey time of around 45 minutes from Cirencester to Oxford and house prices in Cirencester quite cheap by comparison - it would be a quite attractive commute.
Of course the other place which might be giving custom to Charlbury is Chipping Norton - about the same distance from Chipping to either Charlbury or Kingham but Charlbury would mean less time on the train.
Add together Chipping, Witney and Charlbury and you're looking at a population of about 30,000.
In case anyone is interesting, here are some recent pictures of Kemble Station.
This. That was something I was wondering myself. Fairford itself seemed an unlikely terminus for the branch from Witney and Yarnton Junction / Oxford. Had it continued via Cirencester to somewhere else eg Kemble or Cheltenham, would it have survived Beeching.
I don't know the history why it didn't continue to Cirencester at least, but to my mind it would be far more useful as a through route. If you're going to open from Kemble why not make the missing link to Carterton, Witney, Oxford that probably should have existed years ago? I don't see that the terrain would be particularly difficult for new build. And it would be far more useful than say extending the new Borders line between Tweedbank and ultimately Carlisle.
This is another good rail revival proposal and like all reopening schemes that have come to fruition there's no doubt it would be popular and well used. It's unlikely to get very far though without a fundamental rethink in government about future transport policy when the DfT's default mode is still to back road improvements over public transport projects - witness the knocking back today of the Leeds trolleybus scheme. Good luck to the Cirencester revivalists though.
Alternatively, perhaps you could build a triangle junction near Kemble and have Swindon-Cheltenham trains reverse at Cirencester, but that has obvious implications for journey times for those trains.
If the Witney-Oxford line was reopened as well as the Cirencester-Kemble line, then it naturally falls as a potential to reopen to Fairford.
Problem is there has never been a railway line between Fairford and Cirencester.
How would a railway be built from Cirencester to Fairford, especially with the road layouts around Cirencester?
If the Witney-Oxford line was reopened as well as the Cirencester-Kemble line, then it naturally falls as a potential to reopen to Fairford.
Problem is there has never been a railway line between Fairford and Cirencester.
How would a railway be built from Cirencester to Fairford, especially with the road layouts around Cirencester?
Cirencester's public transport provision is more limited. Could a faster public transport link that continued to Swindon tap unmet demand? Perhaps, but it would need to be frequent, and properly linked to the town. But realistically I can't see where the demand would come to make the service sufficiently frequent for it to work.
Fairford is not really part of the Oxford travel to work area, nor is Cirencester, where most people commuting for work go to Swindon, Gloucester and Cheltenham.
I believe I'm quite interesting, though I say so myself...
What on earth is natural about reopening to Fairford? There was nothing natural about the line in the first place, as Witney-Fairford (more accurately a field a mile outside Fairford) was, as noted above, the only bit to be built of a scheme that was otherwise stillborn. And it may be a town, but the population is all of 4,000.
Going west of Witney to Carterton/Brize Norton would make sense to serve another town with a fast-growing population and the RAF's largest base but Fairford is not really part of the Oxford travel to work area, nor is Cirencester, where most people commuting for work go to Swindon, Gloucester and Cheltenham.
I think that has to be right. As things stand, Cirencester has a half hourly bus to Swindon (the second bus is a recent addition, and when that was tried before a few years ago it didn't last very long), and an hourly bus to Cheltenham. There are also less frequent buses to Stroud, Gloucester, and Kemble Station.
That "miserable" service to Kemble Station is currently six buses a day, and it's never been substantially more. The small operator which runs that service might not be in a position to put on a bus in connection with every train even if it wanted to - but Stagecoach certainly could if it wished.
Stagecoach doesn't miss many tricks, and they'd have tried it if they thought it even might work. Doesn't that rather reinforce the idea that the demand does not and will not exist?
Ergo my suggestion of resurrecting the Golden Valley service, extended to Cirencester, wthout reversal at Kemble, due to my new 'Ambergate' suggestion at Kemble.
Probably because the roads are awful.
It's why I once turned down a decent pay increase to work in Dunfermline. Whilst it's "only" 22 miles or so from Bridge of Allan - the reality is around an hour by car.
If West Oxfordshire & East Gloucestershire were opened up by public transport, it's likely that more people would consider commuting and it would drive a massive home-building programme.
For Wiltshire, hundreds of BMW staff do the 420 daily as it is far better lifestyle to buy a house in Swindon and drive it than to live in a rented room for at least £600 a month in Oxford.
I was going to make a similar point. A bus connection between Kemble station and Cirencester will never be of much interest to Stagecoach as it would leech revenue from their services to Swindon and make more money for First Group. Surely First should be more interested in providing a regular link - do they have any services/infrastructure in the area?
I'm not sure about that logic. It could just be that the initial investment (and initial running at a loss) is not something Stagecoach is willing to risk, perhaps sensibly as they are a commercial organisation, even if in the long run you could build a profitable route out of it.Stagecoach doesn't miss many tricks, and they'd have tried it if they thought it even might work. Doesn't that rather reinforce the idea that the demand does not and will not exist?
Yawn - add it to your crayonista pipe-dream list of other unrealistic schemes you keep championing along with Northampton - Peterborough.