It does appear that performance during the process is far less of a factor with the new investment/business partnership prize than it was when the prize was a job in one of Sugar's companies. Looking over the Wiki pages of the previous series, the stats are pretty telling...
Robinson's Apprentice Stat Attack
Considering only series 1-6 (prize was a job):
None of the 6 winners had an inferior track record to the runner-up they beat in the final, in terms of overall wins/losses.
None of the winners had the worst track record out of all the Final Five.
Only Simon Ambrose finished with fewer wins than one or more candidates who didn't actually get to the Final Five stage.
All 6 winners won as PM at least as many times as they lost. Saira Khan is the only runner-up from the same period to have lost more than she won.
Saira, Ansell Henry and James McQuillan are the only 3 candidates from all the first 6 series to have made the Final Five without winning as PM.
All 6 winners stepped up (or were appointed) as PM more than once; Kate Walsh is the only runner-up from the same period who failed to do so.
Considering only the winners from series 7 onwards (the business partner winners):
Joseph Valente is the only one of the 5 winners thus far who has at least equalled the track record of their respective runner-up.
Joseph and Ricky Martin are the only 2 from the 5 who didn't have the worst overall track record from the Final Five.
Ricky is the only winner to finish with at least as many wins overall as every single candidate who didn't get to the Final Five stage. Of the current crop, Frances, Grainne and Jessica can mathematically no longer do so this time around, whilst Alana and Trishna can still do so, but only if they win the next task and Courtney avoids dismissal.
Joseph and Leah Totton are the only 2 who got at least as many wins as PM as losses, not including the final (and even then, in Leah's case it was 1 win from her only shot at the job, having been appointed by Sugar rather than actually volunteering herself). (Interestingly enough, Vana Koutsomitis is the only runner-up from the same period to have finished with a losing record as PM, and one of the runners-up, Helen Milligan, managed a record-equalling 3-0 winning record.)
Every series from series 7 onwards has so far seen someone make it to the Final Five without winning as PM (indeed, in series 7, there were 2 candidates who managed that). This series will also do so unless either Grainne or Jessica gets a win as PM in the 1 remaining task and the other one gets fired.
Winners Tom Pellereau, Leah and Mark Wright and runners-up Bianca Miller and Vana all only had 1 shot as PM - again, not including the final.
Bottom line: I haven't watched a single episode this series but my guess is probably as good as yours as to who wins!
