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EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

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Senex

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It is a border by definition it has two sides, and whatever the future arrangements are they will need to be agreed by both the UK and the EU/Irish Republic. So anyone saying that the UK must sort it out on its own is an idiot.

Happy to be an idiot then!
 
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AlterEgo

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It is a border by definition it has two sides, and whatever the future arrangements are they will need to be agreed by both the UK and the EU/Irish Republic. So anyone saying that the UK must sort it out on its own is an idiot.

Indeed, most of the frustration on the Irish side is that they realise there is work they have to do, but are hamstrung by not knowing what arrangements the British will seek during Brexit negotiations.

As an aside, the name of the country is Ireland, or the Republic of Ireland.

The Irish Republic was something quite different.
 

Tetchytyke

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It is a border by definition it has two sides, and whatever the future arrangements are they will need to be agreed by both the UK and the EU/Irish Republic.

Well not really, each side can unilaterally impose (or remove) border restrictions if they want. Spain prove that on a regular basis with the border into Gibraltar.

The current arrangement works. But the rhetoric from Westminster is that they want to toughen up border controls into the UK, and Eire is not part of the UK. It is for the UK government to hurry up and decide whether they are including the Irish border as part of this or not.
 

Barn

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It's the UK that is creating the problem and so should be the one to come up with a practical solution that does not require the Irish government to change the arrangements it has with the rest of an EU of which it will continue to be a member.

The trouble with this type of thinking is that the only practical solution one country can impose unilaterally is the hardest one available. The only sure-fire way to deal with the border is to put hard customs checks there. Similarly, the only type of withdrawal that the British can unilaterally demand is a 'hard Brexit'.

Anything 'softer' than this requires co-operation and partnership working, which starts with all parties agreeing on the overall aim - i.e. what outcome would represent a success.

In the case of Ireland, that outcome has to be something as close to a transparent, invisible border as possible. I'm sure everyone is at least sensitive to that, and we'll have a powerful advocate in the EU council for that outcome in the shape of Ireland.
 
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Barn

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The current arrangement works. But the rhetoric from Westminster is that they want to toughen up border controls into the UK, and Eire is not part of the UK. It is for the UK government to hurry up and decide whether they are including the Irish border as part of this or not.

People are fairly easy. Remember, even if you focus on the immigration aspect of Brexit, the goal isn't so much about stopping people physically entering the country (and especially not EU citizens). We of course want people to come on holiday and to attend business events.

The goal is to reduce net migration. We can deal with that through information sharing, and through effectively outsourcing immigration control to landlords, universities and employers, as we have done over recent years. Ireland and the UK are beginning to develop close immigration information sharing already, including joint Ireland-UK visas for Chinese and Indian citizens.

Goods and customs checks are harder, not least because they are within the remit of the EU rather than being a bilateral matter between friends. However, I'm sure a technological solution can be found.
 

EM2

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David Davis Says He Doesn’t Know The Economic Cost Of Leaving The EU Without A Deal
The government hasn’t done an assessment of the costs to Britain’s economy of crashing out of the European Union in two years without a new deal, the Brexit minister David Davis told MPs today.

Testifying before the Commons Brexit committee, Davis said the government’s policy of “no deal is better than a bad deal” wasn’t underpinned by a detailed economic study.

“I have a fairly clear view of how it will work out, but I just haven’t quantified it yet,” Davis told the MPs.

In January, setting out her priorities for the Brexit negotiations, Theresa May warned Brussels that Britain is willing to leave the EU in 2019 without agreeing a new economic relationship if the other member states don’t give the UK a fast-tracked “bold and ambitious free-trade agreement”.

Asked whether the government had undertaken an economic assessment of no deal before it reached this conclusion, Davis said: “Under my time? No.”
 

Tetchytyke

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Goods and customs checks are harder

The same principle applies to both goods and people: one country can unilaterally impose or take away restrictions.

If we go down the import tariff route then that border is going to be the weak link, isn't it, even if we don't have passport control.
 

me123

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A lot of goods going to and from the RoI will likely cross the UK (arriving from Ireland on the West Coast by ferry and driving to the East Coast to be shipped to the EU by ferry, and of course vice versa). It will be interesting to see how this is affected by our withdrawal. Will the introduction of import tariffs cause problems for our Irish neighbours? Will trade between Ireland and the EU be exempt from any tariffs that are imposed, and if so how will this be regulated? Will we simply see more travel on the direct routes to France and less via the UK?

A lot will depend on exactly what deal we'll see, but I would imagine that Irish hauliers and their customers will be watching with interest.
 

Barn

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The same principle applies to both goods and people: one country can unilaterally impose or take away restrictions.

If we go down the import tariff route then that border is going to be the weak link, isn't it, even if we don't have passport control.

Yes, as I said, the unilateral option is always there but it is usually worse than a mutually agreed option. It's a warning to Senex et all to be careful what they wish for when they seek to place entire responsibility on the UK for finding a solution.
 

najaB

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Will trade between Ireland and the EU be exempt from any tariffs that are imposed, and if so how will this be regulated?
If so, the Irish equivalent to Companies House needs to start recruiting!
Will we simply see more travel on the direct routes to France and less via the UK?
I rather suspect this will be the case.
 

Tetchytyke

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It's a warning to Senex et all to be careful what they wish for when they seek to place entire responsibility on the UK for finding a solution.

You misunderstand my point. The status quo works, it is the UK which is wanting to change the status quo, and it is therefore the UK that needs to share most of the responsibility in sorting out an agreement. So far they are showing no desire to do so, with all the rhetoric being of tough borders and "taking back control".

If the UK decide to go all Donald Trump on the border, there isn't much that the ROI can do to stop them. They don't control what the UK does.

It would be relatively straightforward for the UK to say "we're not changing the common travel area".
 

AlterEgo

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It would be relatively straightforward for the UK to say "we're not changing the common travel area".

This would be straightforward, and my understanding is the UK have stated they wish the CTA to remain. The bigger problem is the customs border as far as I see it.
 

Barn

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You misunderstand my point. The status quo works, it is the UK which is wanting to change the status quo, and it is therefore the UK that needs to share most of the responsibility in sorting out an agreement. So far they are showing no desire to do so, with all the rhetoric being of tough borders and "taking back control".

If the UK decide to go all Donald Trump on the border, there isn't much that the ROI can do to stop them. They don't control what the UK does.

It would be relatively straightforward for the UK to say "we're not changing the common travel area".

I haven't heard anything from the UK Government which has suggested that they wish to place border checks on the border with Ireland, or that they wish to introduce tariffs on goods crossing borders with Ireland, or that they wish to disrupt the common travel area with Ireland or the special rights of Irish citizens in the UK.

Quite the opposite in fact.
 

radamfi

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This would be straightforward, and my understanding is the UK have stated they wish the CTA to remain. The bigger problem is the customs border as far as I see it.

Switzerland is part of Schengen but not in the customs union. So you can walk/drive across the border without checks but there are places where you can declare goods.
 

najaB

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This would be straightforward, and my understanding is the UK have stated they wish the CTA to remain. The bigger problem is the customs border as far as I see it.
Indeed. If there are no tariffs between the ROI and EU but tariffs between the UK and EU then there needs to be some kind of border customs controls between the UK and ROI. I suppose one option would be for the UK to pay for the customs border between the ROI and EU?
 

Howardh

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I haven't heard anything from the UK Government which has suggested that they wish to place border checks on the border with Ireland, or that they wish to introduce tariffs on goods crossing borders with Ireland, or that they wish to disrupt the common travel area with Ireland or the special rights of Irish citizens in the UK.

Quite the opposite in fact.

It's out of the UK's hands. If the EU insist that the Irish have checks, then that's what the Irish will have to do. However it's grossly unfair for them to have to fund something which is not of their making, so it likes the EU will fund any border control. I assume the UK will fund their part of the border.
 

AlterEgo

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Indeed. If there are no tariffs between the ROI and EU but tariffs between the UK and EU then there needs to be some kind of border customs controls between the UK and ROI. I suppose one option would be for the UK to pay for the customs border between the ROI and EU?

That is one option.

Problem is, nobody *really* wants a visible customs border. It is so politically undesirable it is difficult to see the UK or Irish Governments seeing this as a practical solution. Therefore, any border must remain invisible to the naked eye, but enforced using other means.
 

Barn

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Indeed. If there are no tariffs between the ROI and EU but tariffs between the UK and EU then there needs to be some kind of border customs controls between the UK and ROI. I suppose one option would be for the UK to pay for the customs border between the ROI and EU?

Personally I think we'll end up with no tariffs at all.

However, if there are tariffs, I suspect Ireland might end up in customs union with both the UK and EU. There might be no tariffs on goods imported for domestic Irish consumption but tariffs imposed if those goods leave Ireland bound for the rest of the EU.

This would require the UK to sponsor some customs facilities for this purpose at Irish ports but with electronic manifests and the occasional spot-checks, it shouldn't be impossible to arrive at a 'good enough' solution. The vast majority of dealers wouldn't bother with the "via Ireland" route because the extra costs of transit plus the risk of getting caught would make it unworthwhile.
 
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Barn

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It's out of the UK's hands. If the EU insist that the Irish have checks, then that's what the Irish will have to do. However it's grossly unfair for them to have to fund something which is not of their making, so it likes the EU will fund any border control. I assume the UK will fund their part of the border.

If the EU forces Ireland to check people that Ireland considers* its own citizens at a frontier sited on what Ireland considers* to be its own territory, then you'll end up with a furious Ireland and even potential calls for an Irexit.

I agree that capital costs of any new system will need to be funded principally by the UK.

* = in a friendly, peaceful sense, I mean
 
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Trog

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What happens if the EU want to impose tariffs between the UK and Southern Ireland, but the UK says we are happy for UK/SI trade to be tariff free?

The EU or at least Southern Ireland could then get lumbered with all the costs and the ill will.
 

najaB

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What happens if the EU want to impose tariffs between the UK and Southern Ireland, but the UK says we are happy for UK/SI trade to be tariff free?
First off, there's no country called Southern Ireland, and secondly the UK trade arrangements will be negotiated with the EU as a whole. One of the reasons given for Brexit is the inability for member nations to negotiate bespoke deals.
 

meridian2

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First off, there's no country called Southern Ireland
I'll wager 100% of readers knew what the poster meant. Northern/North of Ireland, The South/Southern Ireland, Westminster, Stormont, Dublin and other synecdoche are easily understood without scoring political points.
 

Trog

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I said southern Ireland to differentiate from Northern Ireland I suppose I should have used a small s to underline to the pedants that I was using the word geographically rather than as a name.

As for trade deals if we end up with a hard Brexit, rather than a negotiated settlement. Which is the sort of situation most likely to cause problems on the border. There would then be nothing to stop the UK from saying we are not going to charge any tariffs on trade between the UK and the other country to the south of the northern bit on the island of Ireland. Leaving it up to the EU side of the border to collect any tariffs they wanted to charge.
 

EM2

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Some more 'highlights' from David Davis appearing at the Select Comittee:
During the evidence session, with the committee shadowing his Department for Exiting the European Union, Mr Davis also:

* Said it was “probably right” that holidaying Britons will lose EHIC cards, which provide free or subsidized healthcare across the EU, but added: “I have not looked at that one.”

* Admitted he did not know the implications of leaving with no deal on the transfer of personal data, which is crucial issue for the booming tech industry.

* Acknowledged UK producers of dairy and meat would face tariffs of up to 40 per cent under World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules – “the numbers in agriculture are high”.

* Described the argument that the UK could walk away without paying a penny to the EU, if no deal is reached, as “interesting” – “a very good start in this exercise”.

* Said he expected Northern Ireland would end up with a “very light border, not a hard border” with the Republic.

* Said he “assumed” the ‘Open Skies’ agreement – which has slashed airfares across the EU - will be lost, although he would fight for a successor.

* Confirmed financial services firms are poised to lose ‘passporting rights’ to trade in the EU, saying: “I would expect that to be the case, that’s an area of uncertainty.”

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-leave-no-deal-select-committee-a7630626.html
 

meridian2

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Some more 'highlights' from David Davis appearing at the Select Comittee:
As EU spokesmen insisted there can be no negotiations before Article 50 is invoked, how would David Davis know the answer to such questions?
 

Barn

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As EU spokesmen insisted there can be no negotiations before Article 50 is invoked, how would David Davis know the answer to such questions?

Indeed: the same people who criticise him for answering honestly would be accusing him of lying if he did answer definitively. No win situation.
 

EM2

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As EU spokesmen insisted there can be no negotiations before Article 50 is invoked, how would David Davis know the answer to such questions?
This isn't about negotiation, it's about doing some basic research.
He's had nine months since the referendum and hasn't looked at the question of EHIC?
There's a lot of 'don't know' and 'assuming' going on there.

Edit - how difficult would it be to call the Department Of Health and ask 'Are we likely to lose EHIC when we leave the EU? We are? Oh, maybe I'd better make some plans in case that happens'.
And then do the same for the DfT about 'Open Skies'. And the same for DEFRA about tariffs.
 
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Howardh

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This isn't about negotiation, it's about doing some basic research.
He's had nine months since the referendum and hasn't looked at the question of EHIC?
There's a lot of 'don't know' and 'assuming' going on there.

You would have thought that he would already have had a peep at the effect of Brexit on the majority of the population - those that travel r/e passports, EHIC, open skies etc? How many are expected to travel to the EU in the next few years??
If I were Davis I would have replied would be "The EHIC card has to be negotiated BUT I aim to keep it as it is now".
Scrap that, If I were Davis I would say "sod this for a game, I'm off and you can stuff Brexit where the sun don't shine" although why Lancashire should get it is beyond me....<D
 

meridian2

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This isn't about negotiation, it's about doing some basic research.
He's had nine months since the referendum and hasn't looked at the question of EHIC?
There's a lot of 'don't know' and 'assuming' going on there.
The government are following the lead of the British public, a majority of whose voters wanted Brexit. You can blame Cameron for offering a referendum, and you can certainly blame him for resigning the day after the vote, but you can hardly blame David Davis for nor having all the answers on tap.
 
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