In the 2014 vote that was the case, and maybe it still is. But a lot has changed since then.
As I said, I don't know if my vote would be the same.
-
Our booking engine at tickets.railforums.co.uk (powered by TrainSplit) helps support the running of the forum with every ticket purchase! Find out more and ask any questions/give us feedback in this thread!
Second Scottish Independence Referendum
- Thread starter ainsworth74
- Start date
- Status
As I said, I don't know if my vote would be the same.
Sponsor Post - registered members do not see these adverts; click here to register, or click here to log in
R
RailUK Forums
TheEscapist_
Member
- Joined
- 18 Nov 2011
- Messages
- 150
Why do people always bring up the 'Westminster never kept any of its promises' ? But if Scotland voted yes would there be a referendum to join the UK when people realised the SNPs white paper was a load of rubbish?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
RichmondCommu
Established Member
What I've posted is based on the latest opinion polls which show things to be pretty much neck and neck at the moment so the gap has certainly narrowed since 2014. So based on the most recent polls 50% of Scots would be very disappointed if there was a vote to leave today.
What we learned from the 2014 Scottish Referendum was that binary Yes/No campaigns can produce horribly divisive effects. The "winners" of that vote claimed a clear margin, but in truth 55;45 is not clear enough, with a very substantial frustrated minority.
Having been through all that, David Cameron led us all down the same path, with an even worse result in terms of clarity of outcome. The bitterness felt by the 48% of our population who voted to remain, and now see the dismantling of a way of life, as Europeans, is stoked by the Daily Mail's (and others) use of the nasty term "Remoaner".
I have no axe to grind either way on the question of Scottish Independence, but I view another 2-year campaign leading to another horribly divisive binary vote with a heavy heart.
Having been through all that, David Cameron led us all down the same path, with an even worse result in terms of clarity of outcome. The bitterness felt by the 48% of our population who voted to remain, and now see the dismantling of a way of life, as Europeans, is stoked by the Daily Mail's (and others) use of the nasty term "Remoaner".
I have no axe to grind either way on the question of Scottish Independence, but I view another 2-year campaign leading to another horribly divisive binary vote with a heavy heart.
Last edited:
I know. But as posted above at the moment we don't know what Brexit looks/feels like. The final shape will have a big impact on any referendum result.
The importance = percentage argument doesn't wash in the context of UK voting habits. Getting a vote over 60/40 for anything is rare in national ballots. Trying for 2:1 would condemn the country to a permanent status quo on any issue a referendum is likely to be offered on. Remember, referendums provide politicians with a vehicle to settle issues that are too volatile for party politics. If the outcome could be confidently predicted we wouldn't have a referendum, government would be covering itself in glory for having conceived of the idea. We get a referendum when there's a political penalty for making a decision. Cameron gambled, lost and immediately resigned, he had no intention of seeing through the will of the people on the question he'd posed them. For him the question wasn't real, it was a political expedient means of closing down doubters for a generation, and it blew up in his face.
DarloRich
Veteran Member
I was against Scottish independence at the last referendum as I did not think Scotland could survive alone. I still think that but also think that "brexit" is a disaster waiting to happen so they may as well have a crack on their own. How bad could it be?
interesting that Tory/Kipper hatred of one institution ( Europe) will quite possibly lead to the destruction of one institution they like ( the Union). Madness.
interesting that Tory/Kipper hatred of one institution ( Europe) will quite possibly lead to the destruction of one institution they like ( the Union). Madness.
Last edited:
PaulLothian
Member
Possibly more accurate to state that "However roughly 50% of Scots appear to be keen to be part of a United Kingdom, or are still anxious about the risks of independence , or yet to be convinced of its benefits"...
Indeed. From discussions at work, etc. a lot of people are in 'rock v hard place' mode at the moment.
Just so!
Rover
Member
Referendums are often portrayed as the people having a voice. Unfortunately if the people say the wrong thing then those that do the listening tell them to try again until they get it right! Referendums are abused.
Scotland had a referendum and they chose to remain part of the UK. The SNP did not accept the result (you wouldn't expect them to of course) so they are now having another go and have found a reason to support this.
What they are saying to the Scottish people is we will keep asking you until we get the answer we want and then we won't have any more referendums.
The SNP's whole raison d'etre is to be an independent country, so they will keep on having a referendum until their aim is achieved.
Mrs May of course wants Scotland to remain so she will never grant them a referendum until the UK is out of the EU. And what about all those Scots that voted to leave the EU? The next Scottish referendum is not a foregone conclusion.
I say this as an Englishman who wants Scotland to remain part of the UK, but if I were a Scot I too would vote for independence.
Scotland had a referendum and they chose to remain part of the UK. The SNP did not accept the result (you wouldn't expect them to of course) so they are now having another go and have found a reason to support this.
What they are saying to the Scottish people is we will keep asking you until we get the answer we want and then we won't have any more referendums.
The SNP's whole raison d'etre is to be an independent country, so they will keep on having a referendum until their aim is achieved.
Mrs May of course wants Scotland to remain so she will never grant them a referendum until the UK is out of the EU. And what about all those Scots that voted to leave the EU? The next Scottish referendum is not a foregone conclusion.
I say this as an Englishman who wants Scotland to remain part of the UK, but if I were a Scot I too would vote for independence.
Precisely. If the SNP were a genuinely multi-issue party, they would lobby for a referendum and promise not to raise the subject for a generation, and get on with governing the country. They don't because the SNP have one agenda that overrides all others, and will seek every opportunity to foreground it no matter how dubious the reason. Do people really believe that another referendum with the same result as 2014 would see Scottish independence as a dead issue?
Last edited by a moderator:
No reasonable government would make such a commitment, and I wouldn't support one that did.
The world changes and governments need to respond to those changes.
chris11256
Member
- Joined
- 27 Dec 2012
- Messages
- 734
Apparently the PM has said she will not agree to the Scottish Parliament's Section 30 order request, while brexit negotiations are ongoing.
But a vote after Brexit has happened has not been ruled out.
This popped up on the Sky news app.
But a vote after Brexit has happened has not been ruled out.
This popped up on the Sky news app.
Last edited:
Which begs the question - what happens if the Scottish Parliament presses the issue? Could this be our South Carolina moment?
PaulLothian
Member
The SNP is a slightly left-of-centre multi-issue party, with a commitment to grow the Scottish economy and to improve the well-being of the people of Scotland in many ways.
Nine months on from the EU referendum, the Westminster Government has not satisfactorily explained how Brexit could conceivably help Scotland (or any part of the UK) achieve those aims. I would be very surprised if they ever develop a convincing explanation and even more surprised if they can follow through on it.
Nicola Sturgeon's day job, which her opponents keep urging her to get on with, is not simply to 'run the country' (she has quite a lot of people to help her do that!), but to try to improve the lot of Scottish citizens.
If a further referendum is the means of doing this, many Scots, by no means all of whom are SNP members or SNP supporters, will support her right to push for one. The fact that a small number of politicians and other people in Scotland may have spoken in 2014 about 'once in a generation' does not make that the established and unbreakable view of the Scottish Government or Scotland's people.
I, for one, would feel aggrieved if, by doing nothing, Nicola Sturgeon consigned Scotland to the likely consequences of Brexit. And I do feel extreme sorrow for my English family and friends, who fear there is little possibility of a better future for themselves, their children or grandchildren.
overthewater
Established Member
- Joined
- 16 Apr 2012
- Messages
- 8,171
I think this is what Nicola wanted, she know May would reject this request at this moment in time. I dont often agree with the Tory PM but May is right, I don't know what I'm voting on, How can May promise the people Scotland there can stay in the single market? nothing has been discussed...
I wouldn't go as far as saying this is the outcome she wanted, but caling for a referendum was definitely a Xanatos gambit on her part.
PaulLothian
Member
I don't know at present what I would be voting on either. By the suggested time of the referendum (current thinking appears to be in not less than 18 months time), there will be three options for Brexit.
- I may know what is planned and approve (which I admit is vanishingly unlikely);
- I may know what is planned and disapprove;
- I may well be extremely worried that our negotiators have demonstrated they could not negotiate their way out of a paper bag, and will have to draw my own conclusions, which are unlikely to be pro-Brexit.
Additionally, we may well have a clearer idea of how Scotland would be treated by the EU. This is because the EU has already identified Scottish concerns about potential exit as a weapon to use against the PM when she tries to emphasise the depth of UK resources that she can bring to the negotiating table.
Short of the Tories losing their majority as a result of alleged electoral malpractice, it will be one of those three options that affect my voting decision!
The only thing that will still the SNP's demand for nationhood is a booming Scottish economy. If we had that, nationalists would be marginal ideologues and no one would care about the issue. As there is no sign of an economic boom for Scotland inside or outside the UK, the SNP have seen their chance of marshalling discontent into nationalist fervour. I'd welcome more honesty from their supporters and less fatuous rationalisation over their manifest ambition. A straw poll in the pub this week suggested the quickest way of achieving Scottish independence would be a UK wide vote on the issue.
PaulLothian
Member
Leaving aside the other assertions you make, as far as the last one is concerned ...
...I suspect you're right!
It would be the only way of achieving independence the SNP wouldn't accept.
Trog
Established Member
Surely it would be ideal for them, the independence they have always wanted and it is the English's fault if anything goes wrong.
Trog
Established Member
Given the likely timescales of Brexit and how long it would take to arrange a vote and Scottish independence, I would think it was already too late to avoid Brexit taking Scotland out of the EU when the referendum result was announced.
So Theresa May has now pretty much denied Nicola Sturgeons request for a second independence referendum in 2018 -2019 .
Now I dont have any particularly passionate feeling on this alone , I am not Scottish and apart from enjoying it as a country to visit I have no ties there .
However what does frustrate me is that I saw Nicola Sturgeon on TV this morning explaining why she passionately believes that late 2018 to early 2019 is the right time for an independence referendum and she then went on to factually explain how she feels like Theresa May is excluding Scotland from the discussion around what we are actually going to negotiate for in leaving the EU . Nicola Sturgeon to me seemed perfectly reasonable and even refused to get drawn into using emotive language like refering to anybody as traitors instead she relied on a factual reasoned argument .
We have seen no Response to this accusation that Scotland is being excluded from the government . We keep hearing Theresa May saying that we all need to unite for a stronger Brexit but if you are not going to put one of the member of the unions concerns to bed around their exclusion from the discussion then do not be surprised when the first minister of Scotland who is elected to serve the interests of Scotland alone instead argues to no longer be a part of that union .
Now I dont have any particularly passionate feeling on this alone , I am not Scottish and apart from enjoying it as a country to visit I have no ties there .
However what does frustrate me is that I saw Nicola Sturgeon on TV this morning explaining why she passionately believes that late 2018 to early 2019 is the right time for an independence referendum and she then went on to factually explain how she feels like Theresa May is excluding Scotland from the discussion around what we are actually going to negotiate for in leaving the EU . Nicola Sturgeon to me seemed perfectly reasonable and even refused to get drawn into using emotive language like refering to anybody as traitors instead she relied on a factual reasoned argument .
We have seen no Response to this accusation that Scotland is being excluded from the government . We keep hearing Theresa May saying that we all need to unite for a stronger Brexit but if you are not going to put one of the member of the unions concerns to bed around their exclusion from the discussion then do not be surprised when the first minister of Scotland who is elected to serve the interests of Scotland alone instead argues to no longer be a part of that union .
Busaholic
Veteran Member
- Joined
- 7 Jun 2014
- Messages
- 14,088
Aided by Toyota's pronouncements on the subject today, which Theresa May would be bone-headed to ignore, so ignored they almost certainly will be.
Theresa May's idea of uniting is being shewn very clearly to be quite simply everyone else joining her in going for the hard Brexit that will please her Tory right wing. She talks of working together, but that too involves others just doing what she wants. There is no concern for national unity or unity of the nations at all.
Completely agree , she is actually paying more attention to the voices of the backbenchers in her own party than the first minister of an important part of the union . I feel even more sorry for Wales and NI who are not even being given airtime in this whole debate
To be fair, when has the UK national stage ever really given Wales or Northern Ireland much airtime?
- Status