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Future Network Rail Investment

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Olaf

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WatcherZero said:
You didnt account for the £1.8bn underspend in CP5 (funds paud by government to NR but not spent) ...
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That is covered by the 2.6 and 3.9 Billion figures above.

WatcherZero said:
and the CP5 determination of £38bn was made up of £20bn network grant and the rest from fixed and variable track access fees (£4.3bn per annum) and borrowing (leverage of assets increase by 7%).
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Thanks. That I will check; the source I used stated that direct grant was the 38.7 Billion figure.

WatcherZero said:
The CP6 determination and network grant is therefore not a cut as you incorrectly assume but actually a £14bn increase before inflation.
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The CP5 Direct Grant was increased with supplementary Grant payments as CP5 progressed, so the final figure is higher than the published final determination.

Using the GBP 19.6 Billion (from the PR13 Statement) as the Direct Grant for CP5, that comes out at GBP 12.91 Billion increase for the CP6 Direct Grant to cover in part funding sources that were previously sourced by borrowing which is projected by Network Rail to turn out at GBP 30.5 Billion by the end of CP5.
 
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IanXC

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Chris Grayling appeared before the Transport Select Committee on Monday, and had the following to say on this subject:

Q105Chair: What is budgeted for trans-Pennine enhancements as part of the CP6 formula?

Chris Grayling: The overall envelope is about £47 billion. It is weighted more towards renewals than towards enhancements, because the condition of the infrastructure in some places is such that we really need to step up the process of renewals. We are also not setting aside now all the enhancement money that we will put in place over the next five years. We have taken the decision that we will start with the initial total of around £9 billion, but we expect to provide money for other projects as time goes by.

Q106Chair: Have you set out what enhancements that £9 billion is meant to pay for? Is it for things carried over from CP5, or for something else?

Chris Grayling: We have not set it out in great detail yet. The two things I have confirmed are that we will do the Ely junction and the trans-Pennine modernisation.

Q107Chair: When can we expect to see more detail on what that money is intended to be used for?

Chris Grayling: In due course. On the trans-Pennine route, we will have to wait and see what the Network Rail proposal is. We are doing the work on Ely junction at the moment. The other area that will get investment is around Bristol. Those are probably the three decisions that we have taken. They are not the only decisions that we have, but they are the three things I have set out very clearly that we will do.

Q108Chair: When can we expect further clarity on the detail?

Chris Grayling: I will set it out in the coming weeks.
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http://data.parliament.uk/writtenev...-the-department-for-transport/oral/71474.html

Not quite sure how that fits in with the numbers above?
 
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snowball

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GRALISTAIR said:
investment around Bristol suggests Fulton’s and some minor electrification
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Is Fulton a typo for Filton?
Requadrification of Filton Bank is happening now in CP5. Investment around Bristol in CP6 could mean the MetroWest proposals, though they're turning out very expensive, or it might mean the deferred wiring to Bristol via Filton and/or via Bath. I doubt it would mean any different electrification.
 
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Chester1

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snowball said:
Is Fulton a typo for Filton?
Requadrification of Filton Bank is happening now in CP5. Investment around Bristol in CP6 could mean the MetroWest proposals, though they're turning out very expensive, or it might mean the deferred wiring to Bristol via Filton and/or via Bath. I doubt it would mean any different electrification.
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It could include electrification to Temple Meads but the rest must be some or all of the MetroWest plan.
 
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HowardGWR

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Chester1 said:
It could include electrification to Temple Meads but the rest must be some or all of the MetroWest plan.
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You'd think it would be daft not to put the extra two tracks in, with all that entails in civils, without at the same time installing OHLE mast bases and all the signalling, wouldn't you, er, wouldn't you?
 
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One would hope they've provided the necessary clearances for OLE and space for bases, but trying to do the bases and the masts at the same time might just delay things with more contractors to get in the way of each other. Once the four-tracking is complete it should be relatively easy to get possessions of the outer tracks for bases, and although I find the arrangements of twin-track cantilevers facing each other incredibly ugly it does at least mean two tracks can remain open during installation of the booms.
 
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HowardGWR

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^^^ Fair point. I think that 4 track portals are going to be difficult as there are quite big gaps between the two sets at various points, due to piecemeal development of the South Wales Railway over 170 odd years, starting from single track broad gauge right through to what is now being reinstated, except the 4 platform stations which mostly aren't, if you follow me.
 
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edwin_m

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Thinking about it some more, I think NR's preference would be to install pairs of two-track cantilevers because they can do this with two tracks open to traffic. But on a recent Padd-Cardiff journey I noticed quite a lot of four-track portals and there must be a reason for that (apart from them looking much tidier in my opinion!). Is it that where the tracks are close together they need to have adjacent lines shut so the advantage of keeping two lines open no longer applies?
 
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Olaf

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IanXC said:
Chris Grayling appeared before the Transport Select Committee on Monday, and had the following to say on this subject:



http://data.parliament.uk/writtenev...-the-department-for-transport/oral/71474.html

Not quite sure how that fits in with the numbers above?
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The enhancements fund will depend on the outcome of PR18, the financial state of Network Rail at the end of CP5, and the treatment of over-spends/under-delivery at the end of the period. The DfT will also particular aspirations in mind, with NPR at the top of the list, but the scale and potential cost of that has not been made public. I wondering if the GBP 47.9 Billion is fully inclusive of the GBP 9 Billion figure that is quoted.
 
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HowardGWR

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I apologise for being parochial about Filton Bank, as we have a thread for that subject but I meant it as an example of how, if budgetary considerations take over, even more extra expense could be eventually incurred, if we are not careful. One hopes common sense will prevail in the spending decisions for 2019-2024.:oops::oops:
 
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Olaf

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CP5 funding for renewals has been increased by GBP 200 Million in the 2017 Autumn Budget so as to see NR through to the end of the current Control Period (apparently this is not coming out of the CP6 allocation).

However, the industry is suggesting that there is still another GBP 300 Million of expenditure under threat between now and March 2019.

It also seems that NR is having difficulty putting together an acceptable Business Plan for CP6 with a consequent impact on the PR timetable.
 
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WatcherZero

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Hmm interestingly Scotland now has to fund the full cost of NR projects upfront, previously they only had to service interest payments while Westminster essentially was left to hold the balance of the debt. England and Wales BTP costs are seperate wheras they are included in the Scottish SoFA. Otherwise its just a load of accounting stuff on how to value the companies revenue and borrowing.
 
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WatcherZero said:
Hmm interestingly Scotland now has to fund the full cost of NR projects upfront, previously they only had to service interest payments while Westminster essentially was left to hold the balance of the debt. England and Wales BTP costs are seperate wheras they are included in the Scottish SoFA. Otherwise its just a load of accounting stuff on how to value the companies revenue and borrowing.
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A cynic might think that DafT were trying to ensure less spend in Scotland on Rail to mask the problems in England and Wales with the enhancement programme.......
 
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clc

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WatcherZero said:
Hmm interestingly Scotland now has to fund the full cost of NR projects upfront, previously they only had to service interest payments while Westminster essentially was left to hold the balance of the debt. England and Wales BTP costs are seperate wheras they are included in the Scottish SoFA. Otherwise its just a load of accounting stuff on how to value the companies revenue and borrowing.
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Was it just interest and not the capital which the Scottish Govt paid? The Treasury is taking on responsibility for debt repayments from 2019 so the Scottish Govt will save around £100 million in interest every year (2% of £5 billion?). That should work out roughly the same as the cut to it’s rail infrastructure funding in CP6.
 
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WatcherZero

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It was just the interest payments yes, the capital of the loans wasn't separated from the other NR debt and the Regulatory Asset Base repayment method (a good analogy would be parents signing as the guarantor of their childs credit card in the case they failed a interest payment) so the Scots would be servicing the debt in perpetuity but not repaying it. Going forward however the NR Scottish assets are separated from the English/Wales ones and NR is barred from borrowing against its RAB.
 
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WatcherZero said:
Hmm interestingly Scotland now has to fund the full cost of NR projects upfront, previously they only had to service interest payments while Westminster essentially was left to hold the balance of the debt. England and Wales BTP costs are seperate wheras they are included in the Scottish SoFA. Otherwise its just a load of accounting stuff on how to value the companies revenue and borrowing.
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I think Wales, if not already, is to get the same treatment - as will TfN down the road and other devolved authorities in the future.

It is odd though that they have stopped the depreciation mechanism as this will still be required when they get to selling the infrastructure to the operators.

What it does is it pushes responsibilities along with authority around expenditures onto the devolved authorities. Thus if things go wrong, it is they that take the political hit. The devolved authority also has to address issues such where-else within their budgets they will make cuts if they find the need to increase funding of Transport for whatever reason - such as non-delivery.

Most important though is that by default all future enhancement work is taken away from Network Rail, with it potentially competing against other providers for delivery contracts on major enhancement projects.
 
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Olaf

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mcmad said:
A cynic might think that DafT were trying to ensure less spend in Scotland on Rail to mask the problems in England and Wales with the enhancement programme.......
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There is a significant over-funding of rail in Scotland from tax revenues; Any action to reduce this is welcome, however the cuts made to funding in Scotland are in line with the 18+% cuts elsewhere.
 
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IanXC

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Olaf said:
There is a significant over-funding of rail in Scotland from tax revenues; Any action to reduce this is welcome, however the cuts made to funding in Scotland are in line with the 18+% cuts elsewhere.
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Over funding in whose opinion?

Action to reduce this is welcomed by who?
 
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IanXC

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Olaf said:
Details are available in the reports published by the ORR.
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So the Scottish Government are wrong to use their devolved powers to do what they feel benefits their voters?

I can't see how a political decision can be wrong!

Can you provide a link to your claimed ORR documents?
 
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gareth950

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IanXC said:
Over funding in whose opinion?

Action to reduce this is welcomed by who?
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Over funding in Olaf's opinion, with any action to reduce this being welcomed by Olaf. ;)

As for any funding for Network Rail investment on enhancement projects in Wales, no one needs to worry about that, because at present there is none and for the forseeable future, nothing is planned. :frown:<(
 
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Olaf

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IanXC said:
Over funding in whose opinion?
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A topic covered several times in these forums, acknowledged by DfT and various Governments, and illustrated in data provided by NR and ORR.

IanXC said:
Action to reduce this is welcomed by who?
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Those backing investment in English and Welsh regions including the South West and and North of England.
 
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Olaf

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gareth950 said:
Over funding in Olaf's opinion ...
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Not my opinion, fact demonstrated by the numbers along with analysis and reports by ORR etc.

gareth950 said:
... with any action to reduce this being welcomed by Olaf. ;)
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Those that wish to see an uplift in investment in the English and Welsh regions.

gareth950 said:
As for any funding for Network Rail investment on enhancement projects in Wales, no one needs to worry about that, because at present there is none and for the forseeable future, nothing is planned. :frown:<(
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You conveniently forget the works that are ongoing in CP5, the completion of electrification work, work just completed on north coast route, plus announced commitment to upgrade of the line from Swansea to Pembroke, and the draft CP6 scope of work.
 
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