Potential disruption from storm Brian 21/10 & 22/10

gavin · 20 Oct 2017

Storm Brian is forecast to arrive tomorrow for parts of the UK gusts for 50mph to 70mph are expected in parts of the south and west

Warnings here: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2017-10-21

A spell of strong winds is expected. Western and southern coastal transport routes and communities are likely to be affected by large waves and spray, with potential for flooding of properties. Some transport disruption is likely across the whole warning area, with delays to road, rail, air and ferry transport. Short term loss of power and other services is also possible, as well as damage to trees

RailUK Forums

221129 · 20 Oct 2017

Amended train plan in the South West this evening through Dawlish.

Clip · 20 Oct 2017

how did we jump from O to B?

SamYeager · 20 Oct 2017

Clip said:
how did we jump from O to B?

Ophelia was the name of the ex-hurricane rather than an official storm name.

Domh245 · 20 Oct 2017

Clip said:
how did we jump from O to B?

This is only the second one named by the Met Office/Met Éireann. Ophelia was named by the US National Hurricane Centre having been born mid Atlantic and so fell under their scheme

tsr · 20 Oct 2017

Network Rail will be imposing 50mph speed restrictions on Southern's East & West Coastway routes, as well as Hurst Green - Uckfield and Redhill - Tonbridge, from 1000hrs - 2200hrs tomorrow.

Unless anything falls or blows onto the track, in which case obviously it will get messier, I would initially expect minor delays of around 5-10mins per service, depending on the maximum speeds usually reached.

PHILIPE · 20 Oct 2017

ATW slashing services tomorrow according to Journey Check:-

[50% reductions on Cardiff Valleys, but doubling up carriiages
Pembroke Dock services only running west of Carmarthen
Marches services to Manchester turning round at Crewe
Birmingham Intl services turning back at Wolverhampton
No services between Cardiff and Cheltenham, XC calling additionally as required,]

Cletus · 20 Oct 2017

Southeastern have made some changes for tomorrow.

Speed restrictions in place on some Southeastern routes between 10:00 and 22:00 on Saturday 21 October

Because of forecast high winds on Saturday 21 October, a 50mph speed restriction will be in place on the following routes, from 10:00 to 22:00:

Tunbridge Wells to Hastings

Ashford International to Ramsgate via Canterbury West

Ashford - Folkestone - Dover Priory - Deal - Ramsgate

Canterbury East to Dover Priory

Ramsgate to Margate

Trains may be delayed or revised, particularly on these routes.

The following service alterations will also apply:

Some High Speed services from Ramsgate to London St Pancras International will run fast from Margate to Faversham.

Some High Speed services between London St Pancras International and Margate will be terminate at, and started back from Ramsgate, not running between Ramsgate and Margate.

gavin · 20 Oct 2017

Clip said:
how did we jump from O to B?

Only storms which were not formally Hurricanes are named by the Met Office/Met Éireann Ex-Hurricanes like Ophelia will remain the same name

PHILIPE · 20 Oct 2017

PHILIPE said:
ATW slashing services tomorrow:-

50% reductions on Cardiff Valleys, but doubling up carriiages
Pembroke Dock services only running west of Carmarthen
Marches services to Manchester turning round at Crewe
Birmingham Intl services turning back at Wolverhampton
No services between Cardiff and Cheltenham, XC calling additionally as required,

Further to this, no ATW trains to Manchester Airport, turning back at Piccadilly and many Cardiff to Holyhead services have had chunks taken out. Several West Wales to Manchesters (already cancelled beyond Crewe) being split at Cardiff Cen.

PHILIPE · 20 Oct 2017

All GWR have done is impose a 50mph restriction between Bridgend and Gloucester (Paddington trains diverted due Engineering work closing Severn Tunnel)

M!T · 20 Oct 2017

221129 said:
Amended train plan in the South West this evening through Dawlish.

Some interesting seas on the Dawlish webcam tonight. Interesting to note that the 18:35 Paddington-Plymouth and the 19:03 Paddington-Plymouth services, both due to pass though imminently, have swapped positions. I think the latter must have overtaken the former at Westbury, the former seemingly running quite slowly for some reason.

PHILIPE · 20 Oct 2017

M!T said:
Some interesting seas on the Dawlish webcam tonight. Interesting to note that the 18:35 Paddington-Plymouth and the 19:03 Paddington-Plymouth services, both due to pass though imminently, have swapped positions. I think the latter must have overtaken the former at Westbury, the former seemingly running quite slowly for some reason.

XC Voyagers suspended from Sea Wall from 1915 until 2300 tinight

6Gman · 20 Oct 2017

PHILIPE said:
XC Voyagers suspended from Sea Wall from 1915 until 2300 tinight

Thought they were supposed to have sorted that?

221129 · 20 Oct 2017

6Gman said:
Thought they were supposed to have sorted that?

No?

M!T · 20 Oct 2017

XC Voyager was due to pass through Dawlish at 22:20 but, according to Realtime Trains "This service was cancelled between Exeter St Davids and Plymouth due to the emergency alarm having been called (VH)."

Same seems to be the case for one that was due to pass at 21:55, so I guess it's not the emergency alarm at all, more the weather along the sea wall.

221129 · 20 Oct 2017

The code is wrong.

Busaholic · 20 Oct 2017

M!T said:
XC Voyager was due to pass through Dawlish at 22:20 but, according to Realtime Trains "This service was cancelled between Exeter St Davids and Plymouth due to the emergency alarm having been called (VH)."

Same seems to be the case for one that was due to pass at 21:55, so I guess it's not the emergency alarm at all, more the weather along the sea wall.

BBC News website for Devon and Cornwall posted at 17.03 that rail services through Dawlish would be affected this evening; this always seems to mean that no Cross Country trains will run westbound: as far as I know none are scheduled eastbound during this period, but then it has the knock-on effect that the Saturday morning starters from Penzance don't run.

aar0 · 20 Oct 2017

PHILIPE said:
All GWR have done is impose a 50mph restriction between Bridgend and Gloucester (Paddington trains diverted due Engineering work closing Severn Tunnel)

Is that not the usual speed along that line? Always feels like an absolute crawl along there.

M!T · 20 Oct 2017

Well, another XC Voyager (Edinburgh-Plymouth) is en-route due through at 22.52 (22:58 with delay taken into account). Currently passing Tiverton Loop. They're going to run out of room for them at Exeter St Davids if they keep cancelling them there!

221129 · 20 Oct 2017

M!T said:
Well, another XC Voyager (Edinburgh-Plymouth) is en-route due through at 22.52 (22:58 with delay taken into account). Currently passing Tiverton Loop. They're going to run out of room for them at Exeter St Davids if they keep cancelling them there!

Hardly... 6 platforms and only 1 Voyager there.

Busaholic · 20 Oct 2017

M!T said:
Well, another XC Voyager (Edinburgh-Plymouth) is en-route due through at 22.52 (22:58 with delay taken into account). Currently passing Tiverton Loop. They're going to run out of room for them at Exeter St Davids if they keep cancelling them there!

I don't know the tide times for Dawlish, but it could well be that the receding tide may allow this to proceed. We had high tide at 17'00 ish in Penzance when the Promenade was closed to traffic because of the wind/high tide combination.

221129 · 20 Oct 2017

1V68 is to run through

M!T · 20 Oct 2017

221129 said:
Hardly... 6 platforms and only 1 Voyager there.

Two cancelled there so far, though yes, you're right - plenty of room.

Busaholic said:
I don't know the tide times for Dawlish, but it could well be that the receding tide may allow this to proceed.

Most likely - it's looking a lot calmer now.

221129 · 20 Oct 2017

M!T said:
Two cancelled there so far, though yes, you're right - plenty of room.

Most likely - it's looking a lot calmer now.

More than 2 have been cancelled. But only one set is still there and will attach to 1V68. And 1V68 WILL run through.

M!T · 20 Oct 2017

Yep. 1V68 and cancelled 1V66 both on P6 at Exeter.

bussnapperwm · 20 Oct 2017

M!T said:
Most likely - it's looking a lot calmer now.

Just watching the footage from the Blenheim and it does look calm, but you know what they say about the calm and storms...

Wivenswold · 21 Oct 2017

Got to say that I think this storm has been rather over-egged. It's not unusual for Atlantic systems to undergo rapid cyclogenesis especially in the Autumn. The "Weather bomb" phrase has been adopted by the media to basically describe a pretty normal Autumnal Atlantic storm. There will be heavy rain, gusty winds, a few branches down but that's at least an annual event somewhere in the British Isles.

As usual the Met Office's more sober predictions will be on or close to the money and in a few days one of the rags will be banging on about our upcoming "Worst Ever Winter", even though the most expert meteorologist would struggle to correctly forecast the weather for the second week in November, let alone the next 5 months.

Edit: Just checked the most reliable short term weather model, maximum gusts on exposed Western coasts around 50mph, 40mph inland. Not in any way unusual, that's not to say somewhere on the network will be unlucky and cop a bit of debris.

aar0 · 21 Oct 2017

aar0 said:
Is that not the usual speed along that line? Always feels like an absolute crawl along there.

On 1L42, Swansea - Paddington, which has lost 6 minutes in the last 20... I take it back. They can indeed go slower.

PHILIPE · 21 Oct 2017

aar0 said:
On 1L42, Swansea - Paddington, which has lost 6 minutes in the last 20... I take it back. They can indeed go slower.

What stretch is this ? There is a weather related 50mph restriction between Bridgend and Gloucester and over the Golden Valley

Potential disruption from storm Brian 21/10 & 22/10

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