Wales & Borders Franchise Consultation

Dai Corner said:

Does anyone in Welsh politics have significantly different priorities? Except those who want Aberystwyth-Carmarthen reopened.

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Jane Dodds the new Welsh Lib Dem has stood a couple of time in Montgomeryshire my local RUG has tried to engage her get her to meetings she hasn't a clue about transport full stop. might be able to spell it but.....

Chester1 said:

Sorry to clarify I was suggesting that 1tph to Bridgend, 2tph to 2tph to Barry Island and 2tph to Penarth and 1tph terminating in Cardiff from Treherbert/Aberdare/Merthyr as part of a bi mode service. I didn't mean them being the only services on the southern section. I think it is important to launch a metro brand and introduce partially electric valleys services as the foundation for further electrification and a wider metro style service. Unless several hundred million is spent quickly a full system is not going to happen in one step.

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Thanks for clarifying that. The reason for my post was to point out that the Cardiff Central - Cogan - Barry and Central - Cogan Jn - Penarth stretches of the current network have one of the highest frequencies at 8tph along the busiest Central - Cogan stretch (plus any freight paths), yet because this section is south rather than north of Cardiff Central it's not part of the 'Core Valleys' proposals and so isn't planned to have any upgrades or electrification! It's crazy.

Gareth Marston said:

A fleet 11 four car DMU's with a small First Class Section are enough to cover an hourly Swansea to Manchester service it would allow the 158 fleet to be concentrated on ex CT routes and the 175's can cover Manchester Airport-North Wales, Halton Curve, stopping services on the Marches and Cardiff to Cheltenham.

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Thanks for the clarification, I see what you are getting at now; new trains on the one route to release stock for the others.

Chester1 said:

The W&B franchise needs more stock not new stock. I am a regular passenger of the North Wales services and there is nothing wrong with the 158s and 175s apart from a lack of sockets or USB ports, worn out seat covers and occasional overcrowding.

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I agree there's nothing wrong with 158s and 175s that a good refurbishment wouldn't fix (apart perhaps from the lack of unit end genagways on the 175s), but the problem is there are no more 175s and there are no 158s off-lease that the new W&B TOC can take on to increase capacity and allow replacement of the mark 3 rakes with their slam doors.

Chester1 said:

Back in the real world... I expect that WG is pushing for idiotically ambitious plans so that Labour AMs can stand next to brand new trains or trams.

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When was the last franchise award (excluding direct-award franchise extensions) that did not include a single new train? If the Welsh Government hope for another 'mass extinction' like the new Anglia franchise then they are being far too ambitious, I agree. If they've asked for a small fleet of new long-distance trains to supplement the 175s and 158s though then I think that's realistic given that little capacity will have been added to the fleet over the past 15 years. Perhaps a diesel version of the class 397 in shorter formations with the gangwayed cabs from the new West Midlands DMU order, assembled at CAF's new Newport plant. I hope the bidders are busy trying to drive down the lease costs on something like the 458s for use on the ValleyLines in the hope that the ROSCO will be desperate not to have to pay to store them.

Chester1 said:

Wiring Cardiff to Pontypridd and using 769s would be a pragmatic solution to the current electrification and DMU problems. The finances should stack up to wire a section of track with 6tph! More than the planned 5 units would be neccessary especially to run services through Cardiff.

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Chester1 said:

769s are bi modes. There is not a chance of getting long 2tph sections wired in the current climate.

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I thought the Metro was supposed to be bringing 4tph to the heads of the valleys. I'll believe that when I see it but even without I don't think leaving ALL the heads of the valleys unwired is sensible. Yes, 769s (or 230s with pantograph and battery modes) mean you can leave out some of the routes, but I think the best solution is to aim to wire the entire network, slowly. That last word is key.

Bletchleyite said:

Re 769s I think it would be a good idea to replace the entire Valleys fleet with them, and then start a programme of rolling electrification (25kV) over 10-15 years. When complete, bin them (they'll be knackered by then) and buy a fleet of brand-new modern EMUs.

Indeed, that's the best scheme I can think of for the Valleys both in terms of getting improvement now (319s are better than Pacers and have more capacity, and are equivalent to 150s in terms of the interior) and in terms of a longer-term but affordable gain.

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That is similar to what I would suggest, except that following the decision to lease five 769s from next summer I'm now working on the assumption that 36 PRM-compliant 150s will be available to the new TOC, so rather than the whole ValleyLines fleet being 769s let's surmise that the new TOC will replace the Pacers with 24 class 769s. All further references to 769s in this topic also apply to something even better (like 4-car 458s with a pantograph and battery mode) if that is possible. For a quick capacity gain (and improved comfort elsewhere on the franchise) bring in every 156 W&B can lay their hands on to shift as many 150s to the valleys as possible, perhaps getting to the point when most trains are 4-car (either to 150s or a 769). If 4-car isn't needed off peak, detach a 150 from each double set and park it in Canton until the evening peak. Next, I hope the TOC would do something like this:

1. close the line through Llandaf and Cathays (diverting services via the City line) for a month or two to electrify it, giving the bi-modes some under-wires running
2. close the Barry Island branch for a while to lengthen the platform to 6-car and electrify it
3. close the line between Cogan and Barry to electrify and lengthen the platforms at Eastbrook (both platforms) and Cogan (up line) to 6-car length
   
4. electrify the remaining two sections to bring Barry Island - Treherbert fully under the wires and giving the 769s plenty of running in electric mode on Merthyr and Aberdare services
   
5. introduce 3-car EMUs similar to Electrostars (if cascaded 379s, 350s or 458s are available at less-than-new lease prices then use them reformed into 3-car sets) on Barry Island - Treherbert, running as 6-car sets in the peak, with 769s doing Aberdare and Merthyr to Bridgend via Barry (2tph) and Penarth
   
6. cascade 150s onto the Rhymney line to provide 6-car services or off the valleys entirely (eg. to plug the 2hr gaps in the Cardiff-Cheltenham service and/or introduce the proposed Metro extra services to Chepstow)
7. electrify the Rhymney line as far as Bargoed, and the Penarth line, introducing more of the 3-car EMUs on the Penarth-Bargoed services, with the services through to Rhymney being 769s
   
8. cascade 150s off the ValleyLines for Cardiff-Swansea/Hereford/Cheltenham/Chepstow stoppers (all to be hourly) or off the franchise entirely if there already are enough to do all those services hourly
9. start electrifying the remaining sections of the core valleys network, plus the Ebbw Vale Line one by one and introducing more of the Electrostar-equivelent EMUs as this progresses (4-car ones for the Bridgend-Barry-Merthyr/Aberdare routes)
10. cascade the 769s onto the Cardiff-Chepstow/Cheltenham/Hereford/Swansea stoppers to do away with some 150s
11. do something to significantly increase the capacity of the GWML between Cardiff and Bridgend, whether that is full quadrupling, loops at the stations for stoppers to be overtaken or a whole new double-track 'high-speed' (100mph) line
12. introduce an hourly express DMU service (probably using 175s) between Cardiff and Carmarthen with just two stops (Port Talbot and Llanelli)
    
13. electrify Cardiff to Maesteg, bring in a few more EMUs, double the frequency to half-hourly if not done already and send the rest of the 150s packing
    
14. hope the UK government has jolly well got on and done the Chippenham-Bristol-Patchway electrification by now
15. electrify the line from Bridgend to Swansea, with Electrostar-like EMUs being used to introduce a Swansea-Bristol electric service replacing the Cardiff-Taunton east of Cardiff and calling at Bridgend, Pyle, Port Talbot and Neath to the west of Cardiff (769s would probably stay on the stoppers, which could then run through to Cheltenham). There would at this point be 4tph from Swansea (1x SWA-MAN, 1x SWA-PAD, 1x SWA-BRI and 1x SWA-Cheltenham stopper)

gareth950 said:

Thanks for clarifying that. The reason for my post was to point out that the Cardiff Central - Cogan - Barry and Central - Cogan Jn - Penarth stretches of the current network have one of the highest frequencies at 8tph along the busiest Central - Cogan stretch (plus any freight paths), yet because this section is south rather than north of Cardiff Central it's not part of the 'Core Valleys' proposals and so isn't planned to have any upgrades or electrification! It's crazy.

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I thought the go-ahead for ValleyLines electrification, back in the day when the wires were going to Swansea, included the Vale Of Glamorgan. The 'Core Valleys' refers to the transfer of ownership away from Network Rail and possible convertion to light rail and as far as I know has no effect on the prior announcment that the Vale Of Glamorgan would be electrified.

You'd better suggest the electrification of the line between Bridgend and Swansea to Grayling.

Rhydgaled said:

I thought the go-ahead for ValleyLines electrification, back in the day when the wires were going to Swansea, included the Vale Of Glamorgan. The 'Core Valleys' refers to the transfer of ownership away from Network Rail and possible convertion to light rail and as far as I know has no effect on the prior announcment that the Vale Of Glamorgan would be electrified.

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-34519119

It was first noticed 2 years ago that as soon as the Welsh Govt started talking about the 'Core Valley lines' upgrades, rather than just the 'Valley lines', that significant sections of what is now classed as the 'Valley lines' network by ATW (so the Vale of Glamorgan, Ebbw Vale, Maesteg lines) are not planned to get any infrastructure upgrades or electrification.
As these lines will remain under Network Rail control, it'll be up to Westminster whether electrification of these lines get the go-ahead. Unless the Welsh Govt volunteers to pay for it entirely of course.

For new EMUs for the Valleys a follow-on from the Merseyrail order with pantographs would seem a good bet to me - level boarding would be a real bonus, and they are more "metro-like" than typical Electrostars.

Regarding DMUs it might not be a bad idea to reform the 175s into 2s and 4s, and use the 4s (8 could be formed as there are presently 16 3-car sets), upgraded with new seats (ideally Grammers, but opinions obviously vary), about half a coach of First Class, better luggage provision etc on one of the InterCity type routes, promoted with a higher quality brand (be that "InterCity" or something else). ATW does suffer a bit, Gerald aside, from everything just being a "train", with a bit of "random unit generator" action having a habit of going on.

2-car sets could run doubled up but on less InterCity-style routes/services, or be tacked onto the back of 4-car sets on the few *particularly* busy services.

Rhydgaled said:

Thanks for the clarification, I see what you are getting at now; new trains on the one route to release stock for the others.

I agree there's nothing wrong with 158s and 175s that a good refurbishment wouldn't fix (apart perhaps from the lack of unit end genagways on the 175s), but the problem is there are no more 175s and there are no 158s off-lease that the new W&B TOC can take on to increase capacity and allow replacement of the mark 3 rakes with their slam doors.

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Yes that the general idea - pick a set of services as the intial metro using 769s and pick one long distance service to obtain new or second hand stock for. There are enough units in the current franchise with the addition of 12 x 769s and 12 mini HSTs or 4 coach DMUs.

Rhydgaled said:

When was the last franchise award (excluding direct-award franchise extensions) that did not include a single new train? If the Welsh Government hope for another 'mass extinction' like the new Anglia franchise then they are being far too ambitious, I agree. If they've asked for a small fleet of new long-distance trains to supplement the 175s and 158s though then I think that's realistic given that little capacity will have been added to the fleet over the past 15 years. Perhaps a diesel version of the class 397 in shorter formations with the gangwayed cabs from the new West Midlands DMU order, assembled at CAF's new Newport plant. I hope the bidders are busy trying to drive down the lease costs on something like the 458s for use on the ValleyLines in the hope that the ROSCO will be desperate not to have to pay to store them.

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By idiotic I was mainly refering to new infrastructure to justify new trains or trams or concentrating new long distance units on Holyhead-Cardiff. 397s are 125mph EMUs and 195s are 100mph DMUs. 4 coach 195s would be fine for all W&B long distance services. Perhaps Stadler bi modes (100mph) for Manchester to South Wales to take advantage of wires between Manchester-Crewe and Newport-Cardiff.

Chester1 said:

Yes that the general idea - pick a set of services as the intial metro using 769s and pick one long distance service to obtain new or second hand stock for. There are enough units in the current franchise with the addition of 12 x 769s and 12 mini HSTs or 4 coach DMUs.



By idiotic I was mainly refering to new infrastructure to justify new trains or trams or concentrating new long distance units on Holyhead-Cardiff. 397s are 125mph EMUs and 195s are 100mph DMUs. 4 coach 195s would be fine for all W&B long distance services. Perhaps Stadler bi modes (100mph) for Manchester to South Wales to take advantage of wires between Manchester-Crewe and Newport-Cardiff.

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If it hadn't been for Network Rail and Grayling aprox 40% the distance from Manchester to Swansea would have been under wires - the Stadler Bi Modes would have been a good option.

daikilo said:

A number of us have surmised that and posted. An issue is that an extension may anyway require a negotiation and Arriva may not want to do the two in parallel! We may be wrong, and others suggest that WG may consider any deal as being better than none.

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Another issue is that it's simply not the case. WG are pushing on with the competition.

Arriva runs CrossCountry, Chiltern, Northern, Grand Central and London Overground. Id guess that it has had enough of the messing about and decided its making enough money elsewhere.

Interesting article on Wales Online,
How Arriva wanted to develop Wales' railways (but were stopped by the UK Government)

The additional subsidy which Arriva would have needed is redacted. Consequently, we don’t know how much funding the UK Government decided was not justified by the future needs of the Welsh population and economy, and we can’t compare that funding with the amount the public purse has provided through ad hoc agreements with ATW for additional capacity.

Also redacted are the “monetised benefits” of Arriva’s initial proposals. Those benefits would arise from reduced “noise, vibration, pollution and accidents caused by the transfer of car journeys to rail, together with significantly reduced overcrowding”.

Arriva also predicted: “Non-monetised benefits will arise from improved journey ambience and from increased levels of economic activity and the associated job creation.”

Highlights of Arriva’s original plans
Proposed: At least 22 new Turbostar trains, to enter service in 2004 and 2005. Outcome: Rejected.

Proposed: Standard Pattern Timetable to make better use of existing train fleet and make timetables easier to remember. Outcome: Delivered in 2005.

Proposed: 31% increase in Valley Lines seating capacity. Outcome: Some increase delivered with Standard Pattern Timetable. No increased capacity from new trains.

Proposed: Hourly Aberystwyth-Shrewsbury trains. Outcome: Rejected by UK Government but introduced at peak commuting times in 2015 with Welsh Government funding.

Proposed: Hourly trains between Llandudno, Betws-y-coed and Blaenau Ffestiniog trains. Outcome: Rejected.

Proposed: Bus services as integral elements of the franchise for Aberystwyth-Carmarthen, Bangor-Porthmadog, and Port Talbot to Heads of the Valleys stations and Abergavenny. Outcome: Rejected.

Proposed: Trains between Wales and Manchester Airport, although Arriva did not see “any realistic prospect of through services for many years, if ever”. Outcome: ATW launched regular services between north Wales and Manchester Airport in 2015 after overcoming opposition from the UK Government and other train operators.

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http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/how-arriva-wanted-develop-wales-13855134

*Hourly* proposed for the Conwy Valley? Crikey. Presumably that would require 3 units/crews and all passing loops used for passing.

Two hourly clockface is probably a more useful target.

Two Contrasting Story's

Western Mail says it woz Tony Blair's fault
http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/how-arriva-wanted-develop-wales-13855134

However, Arriva’s initial proposals for the existing franchise back in 2002 reveal that the root of many of today’s problems is a decision by the Labour Government, under Tony Blair, not to increase the franchise’s subsidy.

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Shropshire Tory MP thinks improvements will happen now Arriva are gone.
https://www.shropshirestar.com/news...1/06/franchise-bidding-needs-to-be-more-open/

Mr Kawczynski said he would not mourn the passing of the Arriva service, which he said had continually fallen short of what people were entitled to expect.

He said that the company's trains were dirty and overcrowded and that he once witnessed a woman collapse to the ground and be taken off the train after being packed in 'like sardines'.
"I have continuously, for many years, sought to explain to Arriva the concerns of local constituents on a number of fronts including the upkeep of the station, the condition of the carriages, the overcrowding and the lack of punctuality," he said.
"I even brought the chief executive of Arriva up to see the situation for himself but they knew he was coming and he was given a very different experience to that of other people. I am not surprised that Arriva Trains Wales have pulled out of the process. They would not have been able to stand up to getting the franchise again.
"I use Virgin trains every week and they are superb. There has been a lot of investment there. Now we will have to wait and see who the new company will be for Shropshire and work closely with them so that the needs of rail users within the county are taken in to consideration.
"This has to be a blessing in disguise for Shrewsbury and Shropshire. Opinions on the service have fallen on deaf ears for years.
"Sometimes, when I have been on the train it has been like sardines in a tin. I was on a train where a lady collapsed because of the conditions and had to be taken off for treatment.
"Anything will be better than the service that Arriva Trains Wales is currently offering."
Read more at https://www.shropshirestar.com/news...ng-needs-to-be-more-open/#UrdVYItsTb5vDZCo.99

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416GSi said:

Interesting article on Wales Online,
How Arriva wanted to develop Wales' railways (but were stopped by the UK Government)

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/how-arriva-wanted-develop-wales-13855134

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nothing new I sat through all 9 original bidders given presentations to RPC Wales back in 02- Arriva were rated in the bottom 3 by us. As I recall the top 3 all went for Pacer cull back then.

Bletchleyite said:

*Hourly* proposed for the Conwy Valley? Crikey. Presumably that would require 3 units/crews and all passing loops used for passing.

Two hourly clockface is probably a more useful target.

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There is only a single passing loop on that line at North Llanrwst. An hourly service will be overkill & would require tight turnarounds at Blaenau Ffestiniog [looking at a date in the future it takes 34 minutes to cover the distance so unless 5 (or more) minutes can be gained each way it will require additional loops.

Kite159 said:

There is only a single passing loop on that line at North Llanrwst. An hourly service will be overkill & would require tight turnarounds at Blaenau Ffestiniog [looking at a date in the future it takes 34 minutes to cover the distance so unless 5 (or more) minutes can be gained each way it will require additional loops.

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It was probably a typo of two-hourly, which (while it would require more subsidy for a second unit and crew) would no doubt increase custom.

gareth950 said:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-34519119

It was first noticed 2 years ago that as soon as the Welsh Govt started talking about the 'Core Valley lines' upgrades, rather than just the 'Valley lines', that significant sections of what is now classed as the 'Valley lines' network by ATW (so the Vale of Glamorgan, Ebbw Vale, Maesteg lines) are not planned to get any infrastructure upgrades or electrification.
As these lines will remain under Network Rail control, it'll be up to Westminster whether electrification of these lines get the go-ahead. Unless the Welsh Govt volunteers to pay for it entirely of course.

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That does sound worrying regarding the future of Vale Of Glamorgan electrification, but it still reads more like "we really don't know" than "Vale Of Glamorgan electrification is definately cancelled" to me. Even when the go-ahead was given the Welsh Govt was responsible for aranging most of funding, the only part of Metro that would have been paid for in full by the UK government was Bridgend to Cardiff electrification (as part of the GW to Swansea and now therefore in much doubt). The UK government also put a sum (£125m or in that order if I recall correctly) 'in the pot' for electrification of the rest of the ValleyLines network, including Vale Of Glamorgan, and as far as I know that hasn't changed. The rest of the funding was to come from various sources via the Welsh Government (for example the Cardiff City Deal and a bid for EU funding, which I hope the Welsh Government have submitted or are not far off doing so).

Chester1 said:

Yes that the general idea - pick a set of services as the intial metro using 769s and pick one long distance service to obtain new or second hand stock for. There are enough units in the current franchise with the addition of 12 x 769s and 12 mini HSTs or 4 coach DMUs.

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12+5 = 17x 769s, and I'm not sure that'd be enough to completely see off the Pacers, but the general idea is sound. Also, rather than throwing money at mark 3 coaches to fit 2020 compliant doors and retention toilets if you aren't going down the new units route I would suggest using mark 4 coaches either behind a 68 or, if possible, between class 43 power cars.

Chester1 said:

By idiotic I was mainly refering to new infrastructure to justify new trains or trams or concentrating new long distance units on Holyhead-Cardiff. 397s are 125mph EMUs and 195s are 100mph DMUs. 4 coach 195s would be fine for all W&B long distance services. Perhaps Stadler bi modes (100mph) for Manchester to South Wales to take advantage of wires between Manchester-Crewe and Newport-Cardiff.

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I used 397s as an example because they are the only train currently in production for the UK that has the entry/exit doors at the vehicle ends (at least on the initial designs, the more-recent shots sadly show the driving vehicles with one door moved 1 section towards the middle of the coach) AND belongs to a family that includes 100mph DMUs and Unit End Gangways. As I see it, the long-distance fleet either needs around 15 sets of five mark 4 coaches (four TSOs and a RFB which might be missing from some sets, leaving 4-car rakes) or new DMUs in a mixture of 2-car and 3-car formations with the following features:

1. unit end gangways
2. (plug-type) doors at the vehicle ends, suburban door layout NOT allowed
   
3. top-speed of 100-110mph
4. seats chosen based on a passenger feedback roadshow
   
5. lots of legroom
   
6. nice big windows with all the seats aligned with them
7. bi-mode if it is possible to have that as well as all of the above

With the mark 4 option, the stock would be primarily for Swansea-Cardiff-Manchester but also for three daily express trains each way between Holyhead and Cardiff (all other Cardiff-Holyhead services should be withdrawn to free paths for more-useful routes). With the DMU option, you could either form up a mix of 4-car and 5-car formations on Swansea-Manchester or take Bletchleyite's suggestion above of forming 8x 4-car class 175s for that route supplimenting them with some 5-car formations of new DMUs and leaving a few of the new DMUs for Birmingham/Manchester - North Wales services splitting at Llandundo Junction. The only problem with the DMU option is that you would lose the buffet facility and there would be nothing to work the 3 remaining Holyhead-Cardiff services.

Bletchleyite said:

It was probably a typo of two-hourly, which (while it would require more subsidy for a second unit and crew) would no doubt increase custom.

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Every two hours, clockface, is how I think Llandudno - Blaenau Ffestiniog should be. It would use two units, which I think should be 175/0s (2-car units) unless those can be fitted with unit end gangways to make them more-useful elsewhere. 100mph is way overkill for the Conwy Valley, but the routes that need 100mph need more than two coaches* and I doubt the new TOC can find enough 156s to have them work the Conwy Valley and still rid Pembrokeshire and the HOWL of the woefully inappropriate class 150s. Another point in favour of 175/0s working the Conwy Valley is that it is remote from Landore depot, which I think would be a sensible base for 156s, and closer to Chester depot.

* an exception might be the Cardiff-Carmarthen/Pembrokeshire express service I hope to see, with only one intermediate stop east of Llanelli.

The view from a Radnorshire gentleman i spoke to this morning is that the consensus down there is that Arriva couldn't see a way to make it worthwhile for them £ wise hence they pulled out. He agreed that buying shiny new trains for Minister, concentrating on running non commercial services for the Minister combined with a profit cap was not ideal.

Rhydgaled said:

12+5 = 17x 769s, and I'm not sure that'd be enough to completely see off the Pacers, but the general idea is sound. Also, rather than throwing money at mark 3 coaches to fit 2020 compliant doors and retention toilets if you aren't going down the new units route I would suggest using mark 4 coaches either behind a 68 or, if possible, between class 43 power cars.

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I was suggesting just 12 x 769s to run the services I mentioned. If every 150 was put on South Wales Metro services and boosted by attached 153s (replacing non compliant toilet with bike rack or luggage storage) there should be enough to replace the pacers. 156/158s/175s could be used on the HoW line and South East Wales.

I suspect that some 185s will be leased simply because they are DDA compliant and go off lease on 31/12/2019. 6 could run Llandudno - Manchester + 1 replace the second ATW loco + 1 spare. That would help to resolve the 31/12/2019 problem and would be a viable long term solution or a short term fix until new stock enters service.

Rhydgaled said:

I used 397s as an example because they are the only train currently in production for the UK that has the entry/exit doors at the vehicle ends (at least on the initial designs, the more-recent shots sadly show the driving vehicles with one door moved 1 section towards the middle of the coach) AND belongs to a family that includes 100mph DMUs and Unit End Gangways. As I see it, the long-distance fleet either needs around 15 sets of five mark 4 coaches (four TSOs and a RFB which might be missing from some sets, leaving 4-car rakes) or new DMUs in a mixture of 2-car and 3-car formations with the following features:

1. unit end gangways
2. (plug-type) doors at the vehicle ends, suburban door layout NOT allowed
   
3. top-speed of 100-110mph
4. seats chosen based on a passenger feedback roadshow
   
5. lots of legroom
   
6. nice big windows with all the seats aligned with them
7. bi-mode if it is possible to have that as well as all of the above

With the mark 4 option, the stock would be primarily for Swansea-Cardiff-Manchester but also for three daily express trains each way between Holyhead and Cardiff (all other Cardiff-Holyhead services should be withdrawn to free paths for more-useful routes). With the DMU option, you could either form up a mix of 4-car and 5-car formations on Swansea-Manchester or take Bletchleyite's suggestion above of forming 8x 4-car class 175s for that route supplimenting them with some 5-car formations of new DMUs and leaving a few of the new DMUs for Birmingham/Manchester - North Wales services splitting at Llandundo Junction. The only problem with the DMU option is that you would lose the buffet facility and there would be nothing to work the 3 remaining Holyhead-Cardiff services.

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Mark IVs are unlikely. They would need rewiring to use a DVT compatible with a diesel loco and running a loco around isn't viable for any service through Chester or to Piccadilly or Cardiff. There are two designs to make Mark IIIs compliant and sufficient carriages are in good condition. None of CAFs new MUs have UEGs. A 4 coach version of the 195 would be fine for W&B if new stock is the preferred option.

Chester1 said:

Mark IVs are unlikely. They would need rewiring to use a DVT compatible with a diesel loco and running a loco around isn't viable for any service through Chester or to Piccadilly or Cardiff. There are two designs to make Mark IIIs compliant and sufficient carriages are in good condition. None of CAFs new MUs have UEGs. A 4 coach version of the 195 would be fine for W&B if new stock is the preferred option.

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I'd just go for new stock (and reformed 175s) in 4-car 23-24m formations (or a FLIRT equivalent, I guess that'd be 6-section plus 2 drive modules). Very little need for UEGs then. In the odd cases where you'd want to add 2 to a 4 it'd be key commuter services (e.g. out of Manchester) where people won't mind the inability to walk through and most will be on season tickets so not checking tickets isn't disastrous.

For me doors at 1/4 and 3/4 per the Class 185 and Aventra would be best ('tis a shame Bombardier no longer have any interest in making DMUs or bi-modes), or in the case of FLIRTs roughly central doors on each vehicle. It just makes boarding so much easier, and is better suited to the kind of long-distance regional express that the W&B "IC" services really are.

Bi-mode best to future-proof them (and because you could replace the diesel engine with anything else that provides electricity or spins the generator if it is felt best to do so later).

Chester1 said:

None of CAFs new MUs have UEGs

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The render released to accompany the news that they'd won the tender for the West Midlands DMUs included gangways.

Bletchleyite said:

I'd just go for new stock (and reformed 175s) in 4-car 23-24m formations (or a FLIRT equivalent, I guess that'd be 6-section plus 2 drive modules). Very little need for UEGs then. In the odd cases where you'd want to add 2 to a 4 it'd be key commuter services (e.g. out of Manchester) where people won't mind the inability to walk through and most will be on season tickets so not checking tickets isn't disastrous.

For me doors at 1/4 and 3/4 per the Class 185 and Aventra would be best ('tis a shame Bombardier no longer have any interest in making DMUs or bi-modes), or in the case of FLIRTs roughly central doors on each vehicle. It just makes boarding so much easier, and is better suited to the kind of long-distance regional express that the W&B "IC" services really are.

Bi-mode best to future-proof them (and because you could replace the diesel engine with anything else that provides electricity or spins the generator if it is felt best to do so later).

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Running 175's out of Manchester toward Chester in non gangwayed formations is probably the best option for them. Airport, Piccadilly, Oxford Rd, Warrington and Chester are barrier-ed and possibly Northern have plans for some of the other stations. You could run them as Llandudno/Wrexham portions for instance giving max capacity east of Chester.

Some political postering from Westminster with some alleged dates

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/new-wales-borders-service-replacing-13869698

A new Wales and Borders service replacing Arriva Trains Wales is 'on track' to launch in October
The UK Government was warned the process is in danger of 'collapse'

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Transport Minister Paul Maynard said he expected the order which would give the Welsh Government the necessary powers will be laid in Parliament “early next year”.

He anticipates bids will be evaluated over January and February, with the Welsh Government awarding the contract between March and June – with a formal signing of the new franchise deal on June 13

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Gareth Marston said:

Some political postering from Westminster with some alleged dates

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/new-wales-borders-service-replacing-13869698

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That's a delay of 7 months! Originally a decision was going to be made before Christmas. With every press release I see the date for confirmation keeps slipping back. Just last week the winner was going to be announced 'in the Spring'. Now we're into mid-Summer!

Sorry to digress a bit, but staff on Arriva Trains Wales received their survey today, i could not answer the questions as they mostly talked about the future of the company! I put 'Sorry i could answer the questions as Arriva Trains Wales has no future and within a year they would cease to exist'.

Rumours that Carwyn Jones is going to resign tomorrow after the death of Carl Sargeant. Could shake things up

Bwlch y Groes said:

Rumours that Carwyn Jones is going to resign tomorrow after the death of Carl Sargeant. Could shake things up

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It will not be a bad thing for transport and the economy if he goes. His record on transport is very poor and road capacity increase centric. It's clear that the current obsession with an M4 Relief Rd is being largely driven by the First Minister despite internal disquiet and this and dualing the Heads of the Valleys Road has crowded out other projects.

He became First Minister in 2008 and under his tenure he has been happy to allow the Wales and Border Franchise with all its flaws which were evident then just to continue and its still unclear what will replace it. The man has had nearly a decade to make his mark and has just sat there allowing the creaking rail services in Wales to continue (bar some minor improvements in rural Wales the suspicious extra trains to Fishguard announced just before the 2016 Assembly elections, the Wrexham partial redouble that hasn't seen an extra service roll in revenue operating service, the botch up extra trains on the Heart of Wales line that made things worse, ok the Cambrian extra 4 trains a day has been successful to a degree but the lack of extra rolling stock allocated to it has blunted its effect somewhat). The warning about the looming PRM deadline was ignored by Welsh Government despite it being flagged up 5 years ago and of course the lack of transparency in the replacement franchise process are all black marks.

The man appears to have been happier playing politics with the Conservatives in Westminister rather than dealing with real problems.

Is there any indication as to service improvements at Wrexham General since the redoubling?

algytaylor said:

Is there any indication as to service improvements at Wrexham General since the redoubling?

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None. The same trains are running in the same times.
Unlikely to change before the new franchise.