West Coast Franchise speculation

LNW-GW Joint · 31 Jul 2017

daikilo said:
Yes, whilst I am aware that the intent appears to be for HS2 stock not to have tilt, no-one I am aware of is planning to straighten the WCML so tilt will continue to bring time-savings, and we know that rail travel is time-sensitive.

Also, do not write-off "beyond Crewe" for anything that does not start at Euston, there is a life outside London and it also likes to travel north, including Manchester and Liverpool. Maybe open access?

Yes, but the only tilting trains today north of Crewe (well, Weaver Jn) are the two VT Euston-Scotland services.
Once these run via HS2 and are on non-tilt stock, there is no point in optimising the line for non-existent tilting trains.
TPE will not be running with tilt.
I agree NR will need to improve the non-tilt speeds where feasible, but there won't be any TOCs wanting tilt north of Crewe.

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daikilo · 31 Jul 2017

LNW-GW Joint said:
Yes, but the only tilting trains today north of Crewe (well, Weaver Jn) are the two VT Euston-Scotland services.
Once these run via HS2 and are on non-tilt stock, there is no point in optimising the line for non-existent tilting trains.
TPE will not be running with tilt.
I agree NR will need to improve the non-tilt speeds where feasible, but there won't be any TOCs wanting tilt north of Crewe.

If tilt stock is available (390) why would NR spend anything to improve the track alignment instead? Also, what if TPE decided to use possibly cheap 390s on their Scotland routes, maybe starting back from say Crewe or Birmingham as say open access? We (and the ROSCOs) need to get out of the box and think about how we can best use what we/they have.

LNW-GW Joint · 31 Jul 2017

Well the HS2 paradox is that its 360km/h stock has the prospect of being stuck at 110mph north of Crewe.
Passengers have the prospect of extended journey times compared to now, say 15 minutes over a 390.
I think the DfT will want to improve the northern WCML for CC trains, but what is affordable is for WCP and NR to work out.
The business case increases when Edinburgh trains run via HS2 and the WCML.
TPE had the chance of buying tilting trains last year, and plumped for bargain non-tilt EMUs instead.

Bletchleyite · 31 Jul 2017

LNW-GW Joint said:
TPE had the chance of buying tilting trains last year, and plumped for bargain non-tilt EMUs instead.

"superior"

"spacious"

?

daikilo · 31 Jul 2017

LNW-GW Joint said:
TPE had the chance of buying tilting trains last year, and plumped for bargain non-tilt EMUs instead.

Unless I missed something, TPE didn't buy anything, they agreed a lease with a ROSCO or Bank/s who bought them. Leasing a few 390s should not be a problem if other work can be found for said trains.

KashmireHawker · 27 Aug 2017

As mentioned on another thread, Trenitalia have pulled out of SouthEastern to focus on there bid for WCP.

Also and this just a thought, with TrainGate being fully exposed this week, could this be an opportunity to punish Branson - for now can be seen to be as a monumental lie?

Strangely too, I last night drempt that MTR won the franchise, which was partly down to the above!

Finally, it seems more than likely that the Voyagers are probs of the way out within the 1st few years of the franchise, as they aren't getting VTWC's new livery

Agent_Squash · 27 Aug 2017

KashmireHawker said:
As mentioned on another thread, Trenitalia have pulled out of SouthEastern to focus on there bid for WCP.

Also and this just a thought, with TrainGate being fully exposed this week, could this be an opportunity to punish Branson - for now can be seen to be as a monumental lie?

Strangely too, I last night drempt that MTR won the franchise, which was partly down to the above!

Finally, it seems more than likely that the Voyagers are probs of the way out within the 1st few years of the franchise, as they aren't getting VTWC's new livery

After the fiasco a few years ago, franchise awards are made purely on the bid. And besides, Virgin releasing the CCTV probably would have made it in better favour with the DfT as it made a mockery of the leader of the opposition.

Bletchleyite · 27 Aug 2017

KashmireHawker said:
Finally, it seems more than likely that the Voyagers are probs of the way out within the 1st few years of the franchise, as they aren't getting VTWC's new livery

The livery has nowt to do with it. The Pendolinos are scheduled a repaint, and as such are getting a generic one. The Voyagers are not, and so are not being repainted.

LNW-GW Joint · 27 Aug 2017

KashmireHawker said:
Also and this just a thought, with TrainGate being fully exposed this week, could this be an opportunity to punish Branson - for now can be seen to be as a monumental lie?

I haven't kept up with TrainGate, but it is irrelevant in WCP franchise terms.
The "Virgin" bid is actually only 30% Virgin, with 50% Stagecoach and 20% SNCF.
The DfT has more to worry about that a local PR spat about a VTEC service.
The WCP franchisee will not be choosing the rolling stock for HS2 services in any case, that's down to HS2 Ltd/DfT.
WCP's services will be pretty much determined by that choice.

cle · 28 Aug 2017

Aren't the 390s only really useful on the WCML?

I'd assume after HS2, some could switch to run out of Birmingham and Manchester to Scotland - and they'd run at higher speeds than the HS2 London trains north of Preston!

That said, I think due to MKC demand etc - I imagine most Pendo services will remain, but just add a few more stops and become the semi-fasts.

Gadget88 · 29 Aug 2017

I thought the Virgin trains are quite modern surely they won't be replaced? Virgin East coast have 40 year old carriages running all be it they are being replaced next year.

Scotrail will have older trains from 2018 on long distance routes.

absolutelymilk · 20 Nov 2017

Are we still expecting the ITT to be released by the end of November?

Lrd · 20 Nov 2017

absolutelymilk said:
Are we still expecting the ITT to be released by the end of November?

For what?

LNW-GW Joint · 20 Nov 2017

absolutelymilk said:
Are we still expecting the ITT to be released by the end of November?

Lrd said:
For what?

It's November according to the DfT franchise schedule.
I think they would have announced something by now if the date had slipped.
That's for the combined ICWC/HS2 franchise (WCP) over about 10 years to 2029-ish.

Lrd · 21 Nov 2017

Thanks, for some reason I thought this the new LM franchise thread, whoops!

Mollman · 22 Nov 2017

LNW-GW Joint said:
It's November according to the DfT franchise schedule.
I think they would have announced something by now if the date had slipped.

Except this is the DfT! South Eastern was meant to be September and I have seen nothing about that yet.

DenmarkRail · 22 Nov 2017

I wonder if the West Coast Partnership will ask some of the CC trains to join the old WCML at Stafford (Is stafford where the interchange will be?) and continue onwards on old WCML to Scotland?

superalbs · 22 Nov 2017

George Moore said:
I wonder if the West Coast Partnership will ask some of the CC trains to join the old WCML at Stafford (Is stafford where the interchange will be?) and continue onwards on old WCML to Scotland?

What's CC, it can't be c2c, so what? :P

DenmarkRail · 22 Nov 2017

superalbs said:
What's CC, it can't be c2c, so what? :P

Classic compatible - HS2 trains which will also work on WCML

LNW-GW Joint · 22 Nov 2017

George Moore said:
I wonder if the West Coast Partnership will ask some of the CC trains to join the old WCML at Stafford (Is stafford where the interchange will be?) and continue onwards on old WCML to Scotland?

I think that's the whole idea of the initial CC procurement!
The HS2/WCML junction will be north of Lichfield* in 2026, so HS2 trains can continue to run via Stafford or Stoke.
The main junction will move to just south of Crewe in 2027.
The WCP is the franchisee of both HS2 and ICWC - they will control services on both lines.

* actually just south of Armitage, at the northern end of the new 4-track section of the WCML.

LOL The Irony · 22 Nov 2017

The only builder that has offered a CC train that can use existing infrastructure is Alstom as far as I'm concerned.

The Planner · 22 Nov 2017

They will all have to offer a train that can use existing infrastructure.

LOL The Irony · 22 Nov 2017

The Planner said:
They will all have to offer a train that can use existing infrastructure.

By that I meant use its full potential

absolutelymilk · 14 Dec 2017

According to the Express and Star, Virgin is trying to negotiate a direct award with the DfT to run from April 2018.

https://www.expressandstar.com/news...n-rail-on-track-for-new-west-coast-franchise/

"Virgin Rail Group is making good progress towards agreeing a new direct award contract with the Department for Transport to run from April 2018. We are hopeful that this will be concluded shortly."

I thought the franchise would run until 2019 anyway?

daikilo · 15 Dec 2017

absolutelymilk said:
According to the Express and Star, Virgin is trying to negotiate a direct award with the DfT to run from April 2018.

https://www.expressandstar.com/news...n-rail-on-track-for-new-west-coast-franchise/

I thought the franchise would run until 2019 anyway?

In the first paragraph it says April 2019 but later does say April 2018. The words on the VTEC franchise re renegotion until 2020 are also interesting.

Bletchleyite · 15 Dec 2017

I hope it includes the right to stick a bit more red vinyl on that pig-ugly monochrome livery.

LNW-GW Joint · 15 Dec 2017

absolutelymilk said:
According to the Express and Star, Virgin is trying to negotiate a direct award with the DfT to run from April 2018.

I think it's rather the other way round.
The DfT decided to delay the WCP competition so need a deal with Virgin for the year from April 2018 to April 2019.
I can't believe VT will not get the extension, the alternatives are unthinkable at this stage.
The only service change is likely to be the introduction of Pendolino services to Blackpool.
DfT is already running late issuing the WCP ITT on the revised schedule.

KashmireHawker · 29 Jan 2018

I note a post on an East Coast Partnership thread suggesting Virgin are on track to lose it. Any truth whatsoever? Got to be far too early to say surely!

LNW-GW Joint · 29 Jan 2018

KashmireHawker said:
I note a post on an East Coast Partnership thread suggesting Virgin are on track to lose it. Any truth whatsoever? Got to be far too early to say surely!

More from the "Anybody but Virgin" camp, I think.
There are 3 short-listed bidders (all consortia): First/Trenitalia, MTR/Guangshen, and Stagecoach/Virgin/SNCF.
They all have realistic chances, but it all depends on the ITT, the contract terms and the bids.
DfT will be desperate not to lose any of these bidders, as less than 3 bids is not enough for a full competition.

But firms might withdraw if they lose interest or can't fund the bid.
Things have deteriorated at Stagecoach, and might be affected by the East Coast situation (depending how the fallout goes, and the ECP renegotiation).
First/MTR have recently won SWR, First still has a lot of work to do at GWR and TPE, and MTR has Crossrail, so they are all very busy.
Who can tell how keen the high-speed partners are? Do you want Italian, Chinese or French high-speed expertise with your HS2 services?
None of the bidders will be choosing the trains for HS2, that's down to HS2 Ltd and DfT (like IEP).

Posts just asserting that Virgin has lost, or "doesn't deserve to win" are well wide of the mark.
Somebody wanted Chiltern to win - well their owners Arriva (including all DB's high-speed experience!) didn't even make the short list.

DenmarkRail · 29 Jan 2018

KashmireHawker said:
I note a post on an East Coast Partnership thread suggesting Virgin are on track to lose it. Any truth whatsoever? Got to be far too early to say surely!

-It is far too early to call, even to the point for East Coast, we don't even know who will bid.
-West Coast is possibly in Virgin's favour, given the vast improvements they have delivered in the past franchise
-That being said, nothing is certain, and is still to early

#VIRGIN2019!

West Coast Franchise speculation

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