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Metropolitan line to Watford junction cancelled

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matt_world2004

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http://diamondgeezer.blogspot.co.uk/2017/11/mayoral-decision-metropolitan-line.html

Diamond Geezer said:
Short version: The Metropolitan Line Extension is doomed because costs have increased and there is no money.

Slightly longer version: Since taking over the MLX project, TfL has worked with the supply chain and Network Rail to progress the design and obtain market prices for delivery. The outturn cost of the project will be significantly in excess of £284.4m. The increased project costs weaken the MLX business case. The deteriorating business case and loss of its operating grant mean that TfL is no longer able to bear cost risk above the current £284.4m funding package.
 
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Bletchleyite

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TBH I'm not really convinced it was a good idea, anyway, based on how the WCML/LO vs Met Line are used and are likely to be used and what parts of Watford they serve/were planning to serve. Or rather, it wasn't a good use of funds, I don't think it would have been harmful (though it would have left those living just north and south of Cassiobury Park quite a bit further from a station than before).

FWIW there is decent interchange Met <-> LO at Kenton (that I had never noticed before - should it perhaps be shown on the London Connections map? It's about 250 yards...)
 

matt_world2004

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TBH I'm not really convinced it was a good idea, anyway, based on how the WCML/LO vs Met Line are used and are likely to be used and what parts of Watford they serve/were planning to serve.

FWIW there is decent interchange Met <-> LO at Kenton (that I had never noticed before - should it perhaps be shown on the London Connections map? It's about 250 yards...)

It didnt offer much benefit to Londoners with Harrow, wembley , hampsted and Euston already served by quicker services , Northwood would have benefited and stations west of moor park but you cannot justify spending £284 million of london taxpayers to provide an enhanced service to Northwood. Maybe it would have survived more with it being a joint chiltern/met project.
 

Bletchleyite

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It didnt offer much benefit to Londoners with Harrow, wembley , hampsted and Euston already served by quicker services , Northwood would have benefited and stations west of moor park but you cannot justify spending £284 million of london taxpayers to provide an enhanced service to Northwood. Maybe it would have survived more with it being a joint chiltern/met project.

It would have improved South WCML <-> Chiltern interchange, sure - but East West Rail will too.
 

Sebastian O

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I don’t think that’s quite what the DG article states.

It says unless no work to fund the efforts in the next two months, it’ll then be potentially cancelled as TWAO runs out next August.
 

PR1Berske

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It has been on the cards as a potential mothballed project for some time.

A quote from the article in the first post is below


I hope this is the right place to put this quote...

7.1 TfL’s programme for delivering the works will be revised if additional funding for the MLX is committed.

7.2 Unless and until such additional funding for the MLX is committed, TfL will close-out its activities in respect of the project. In particular, the stage 1 design works, being completed through the Design & Build Contract and the Network Rail GRIP3 option selection works will be completed to provide a baseline design for the scheme from which the MLX could be taken forward in the future, subject to the relevant powers and a suitable funding package being made available to secure the delivery of the project.

7.3 Were arrangements to be put in place by DfT and/or local funding partners to provide additional funding for the MLX for costs above the current £284.4m funding package, TfL could consider safeguarding the ability to deliver the scheme beyond the August 2018 deadline. This would involve LUL discharging the pre-commencement planning conditions and exercising compulsory purchase powers (under the TWAO) to enable a discrete package of works to be procured and delivered before that date to demonstrate the scheme had been implemented. However, for TfL to be assured that the programme included a prudent level of contingency to cater for delay (bearing in mind this deadline is absolute), the additional funding would need to be secured by 31 December 2017


From this source:. http://diamondgeezer.blogspot.co.uk/2017/11/mayoral-decision-metropolitan-line.html
 

Bletchleyite

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Are they going to re-extend the Bakerloo line to Watford Junction instead?

I'm not sure they really need to do anything - it by and large works as it is.

Nobody is going to spend an hour and a half getting the Tube from central London to Watford when they can take the Tube to Euston and then LM in half the time.

The Met does have the advantage of (a) not being quite as slow and (b) going to the City (well, Moorgate and Aldgate), but they can still go there, just not from Junction. While everyone already on LM/VT trains will stay on them to Euston and change to it there.

The only real case for this line was connecting the Chiltern line to the WCML, really, for which demand must be quite low, and East West Rail will do it further north in time.
 

Elecman

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FWIW there is decent interchange Met <-> LO at Kenton (that I had never noticed before - should it perhaps be shown on the London Connections map? It's about 250 yards...)

Actually it's 560 yards from Kenton station to Northwick Park station according to google maps.
 

Mojo

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Its a good 10 -15 minute walk between the stations though due it it being through residential streets
No it isn’t! Google Maps says 6 Min walk and having done it myself it’s no more than 5 Min.
 

PeterC

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I'm not sure they really need to do anything - it by and large works as it is.
Really? Just try driving into Watford from any direction at 9AM. This isn't about travelling to or from Central London it is about travelling to and fron Watford as a destination in its own right from a large slice of the north west suburbs.

TfL only got the short straw because Herts were making a dogs breakfast of the project.
 

Bletchleyite

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Really? Just try driving into Watford from any direction at 9AM. This isn't about travelling to or from Central London it is about travelling to and fron Watford as a destination in its own right from a large slice of the north west suburbs.

Is it?

Watford Met is about the same distance from the centre as Junction is. So I don't see how it can really be that, unless you live in Croxley. Or was Watford High St the main target?
 

Bletchleyite

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I really can't see any point in extending the Bakerloo to Watford, to be honest. The existing setup seems to work quite well as it is, and people just aren't going to sit on a Tube train for well over an hour at the same fare as popping over to Euston and taking 20 minutes.
 

PeterC

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Is it?

Watford Met is about the same distance from the centre as Junction is. So I don't see how it can really be that, unless you live in Croxley. Or was Watford High St the main target?
My bad - I gave up trainspotting when I was 14 so I have this silly habit of thinking like a real fare paying passenger.
 

Bald Rick

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Is it?

Watford Met is about the same distance from the centre as Junction is. So I don't see how it can really be that, unless you live in Croxley. Or was Watford High St the main target?

High St, and the hospital. Traffic (and parking) at the latter can be horrific, but there's not much option. I had the misfortune to have to visit the hospital twice a day for a week or so last year, had the met been there I would have used it. But it wasn't, so I drove, sometimes waiting half an hour for a parking space to come free.
 

matt_world2004

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I really can't see any point in extending the Bakerloo to Watford, to be honest. The existing setup seems to work quite well as it is, and people just aren't going to sit on a Tube train for well over an hour at the same fare as popping over to Euston and taking 20 minutes.
It would be highly beneficial for passengers coming from west of Northwood especially if chiltern railways has western rail access( no reason why not) however is that really tfls problem
 

Starmill

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I really can't see any point in extending the Bakerloo to Watford, to be honest. The existing setup seems to work quite well as it is, and people just aren't going to sit on a Tube train for well over an hour at the same fare as popping over to Euston and taking 20 minutes.

I notice you've mentioned this several times now.

What made you think that this was relevant to the aims of the project?
 

MatthewRead

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I notice you've mentioned this several times now.

What made you think that this was relevant to the aims of the project?
It was meant to be a cheaper alternative although it wouldn't be happening until the new tube for London entered service in 2028.
 

pdeaves

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They have been talking about this line for the last 20 years! Get it built!

More than that. Branch Line News for December 1968 said "It is expected that a new proposal for the closure of the Watford-Croxley Green branch will be announced soon, as the proposed connection at Croxley with the Met line has been found to be too costly." So it has been 'talked about' (in one form or another) for 50 years!
 

edwin_m

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I notice you've mentioned this several times now.

What made you think that this was relevant to the aims of the project?

It was meant to be a cheaper alternative although it wouldn't be happening until the new tube for London entered service in 2028.
It's not really an alternative as it doesn't solve the same problems.

Bakerloo extension would allow level boarding on the DC line stations and might allow removal of the DC lines service from Euston (I recognise that people squeal in protest whenever that is mentioned - the benefits or otherwise aren't relevant to this discussion). It wouldn't provide any extra links to Watford that aren't possible today.

Metropolitan extension makes accessing Watford easier from the area between Harrow and Moor Park, although parts of this already have good access via the WCML. It also provides connections between Watford and the Aylesbury line.

So these do different things, which may or may not be worthwhile in their own right, but aren't really alternatives to each other except in the sense of perhaps being different ways of spending a pot of money. Pots of money are few and far between, and if someone finds one spending it is unlikely to be difficult.
 

Malcolmffc

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Hard to see any point to extending the Bakerloo to Watford given there are no capacity issues with the current Overground service and there is an easy interchange at any of the existing Bakerloo services between Harrow and Queens Park

In any case the age of the stock firmly rules it out.
 

MatthewRead

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Hard to see any point to extending the Bakerloo to Watford given there are no capacity issues with the current Overground service and there is an easy interchange at any of the existing Bakerloo services between Harrow and Queens Park

In any case the age of the stock firmly rules it out.
Which is why they said they would wait for the new trains to arrive but that's not till 2028 isn't it?
 

Taunton

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This was always an idea that appealed more to the "join the dots crayonistas" than any serious demand analysis.

The fact that, yet again, the supposedly professional cost estimates looked likely to be woefully short once works started, and that any overrun was being heaped on the local authority whose area it is NOT in, makes it look even more of a poor idea.

What demand would it serve? The Met runs quite close to the Watford Junction Overground line anyway, and quite a number of the stations have overlapping catchment areas.

One upside would be increased access to Watford shopping. Quite why London taxpayers should pay for something that therefore knocks the equivalent (which they very much are) shops at Harrow, within London, taxpayers there, and right on the Met, is not explained.

Another would have once been useful access to the WCML Expresses. However, ever since Virgin decided to dump most of the Watford Junction express stops, to considerable inconvenience of NW London/adjacent Herts and Bucks, this doesn't apply any more.
 

LU_timetabler

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Hard to see any point to extending the Bakerloo to Watford given there are no capacity issues with the current Overground service and there is an easy interchange at any of the existing Bakerloo services between Harrow and Queens Park

In any case the age of the stock firmly rules it out.
How can you say there are no capacity issues - I live on the Overground section north of Harrow & Wealdstone and peak evening services are overfull when they arrive at Harrow. And the Overground going south in the morning peak is standing room only by Wembley. There are capacity issues, but only in the peak. Reasons: 1. London Midland is not forced to make all but its longest distance services call at all stations - Harrow, Bushey, Watford Jcn. 2. Overground service is not boosted in the peak and it should be, either by Bakerloo peak extension to Watford or Overground peak boost.
 
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