Lack of rolling stock orders in the early 2020s

Dave1987 said:

The expensive bits are imported. And I have not heard a single mention of the bodyshells being manufactured at NA since it being built. If Hitachi were to start building the bodyshells at NA I would be confident of NA’s future long term. But because the expensive bits are all imported and with Brexit tariffs on the horizon potentially I’m very sceptical about NA’s long term future. I have read that Hitachi are looking at modifying their 80x to make it better on diesel by adding a another engine under one end of a 5 car. At the end of the day with two enormous orders for UK stock being built in Europe and other orders also being built in Europe that is a huge amount of brand new rolling stock that will be in service for decades that will take work away from UK plants. But those boats have sailed now. The Government are going to have some very uncomfortable headlines in the next few years. That’s on top of the Brexit turmoil!

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The body shells are made in Japan not Europe. There is no indication that brexit will lead to trade barriers between Japan and the UK. I doubt there are many (if any) parts that have to be made in Europe. Hitachi can have a significant share of the UK market for the long term and support their home facilities so it is very much in their interests to keep Newton Aycliffe open.

Dave1987 said:

Have you accepted the DFT’s demands that TOCs and manufacturers break the laws of physics? Last I read there were not currently any suitable trains on the market for what the DFT are demanding.

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The government has indicated that St Pancras to Bedford wires will be upgraded for 125mph by the time new stock arrives, probably in 2022 or 2023, which would mean 800s would be fine.

Chester1 said:

There is no indication that brexit will lead to trade barriers between Japan and the UK.

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Really? Once we are out of the EU then any trade deals negotiated by the EU cease to apply, so unless something else is negotiated in the interim then WTO terms apply.

43096 said:

Really? Once we are out of the EU then any trade deals negotiated by the EU cease to apply, so unless something else is negotiated in the interim then WTO terms apply.

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The EU has just concluded neogiations with Japan but the trade agreement has not been ratified yet. The UK trades with most of the world (including USA, China and Japan) more or less on WTO terms. Don't mistake me for a brexiteer because I think reverting to WTO rules for trade with Europe would be very damaging. Japanese manufacturers who export from UK to Europe e.g. Nissan will lose out because of brexit but not those who don't. The harder brexit is the more equal the playing field for Japanese and European exports to the UK will be. Hitachi have a great opportunity to secure a big slice of the UK train market because their supply chain can cut out Europe if necessary and if its not then they can also use their factory in Italy alongside NA. Its win win for them.

Chester1 said:

Hitachi have a great opportunity to secure a big slice of the UK train market because their supply chain can cut out Europe if necessary and if its not then they can also use their factory in Italy alongside NA. Its win win for them.

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They do, but the British train building industry has been on a boom/bust cycle for decades. Currently it's a boom, but the next downturn won't be far away. I cannot see three or more assembly plants being sustainable in that scenario.

43096 said:

They do, but the British train building industry has been on a boom/bust cycle for decades. Currently it's a boom, but the next downturn won't be far away. I cannot see three or more assembly plants being sustainable in that scenario.

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If we never export then it won't be sustainable and frankly any industry entirely reliant on domestic demand staying steady is unlikely to be sustainable. When the bust comes it is upto the owners to provide alternative work or close their sites and risk repeatedly losing tenders that will be bias to UK based manufacturers. Bombardier, Hitachi and CAF are all very capable of finding sufficient export orders to keep their UK factories open and if they decide to then the premise of this thread is irrelevant. Bombardier Derby will soon be producing 1000 coaches per year. That is not sustainable unless they are given a monopoly on EMUs, HS2 and tube trains, they need to start exporting to make that level of production viable in the 2020s. Obviously the Aventra won't be sold abroad but Bombardier has non UK trains it could build in Derby.

Chester1 said:

The body shells are made in Japan not Europe. There is no indication that brexit will lead to trade barriers between Japan and the UK. I doubt there are many (if any) parts that have to be made in Europe. Hitachi can have a significant share of the UK market for the long term and support their home facilities so it is very much in their interests to keep Newton Aycliffe open.



The government has indicated that St Pancras to Bedford wires will be upgraded for 125mph by the time new stock arrives, probably in 2022 or 2023, which would mean 800s would be fine.

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So that is a yes you have accepted the DFT PR nonsense. Like I said Hitachi have reportedly been exploring options to put an extra engine under their 80x. Even if the wires were upgraded, and that is an if, the 80x still doesn’t have enough power on Diesel currently for the MML so no 80x would not be fine at this current time. The 80x is a very under powered diesel train at the moment in its current design. And a very heavy electric train.

The Government and the DFT have once again attempted to use the all fabled bi-mode as a get out of jail free card on the MML believing once again that they can defy the laws of physics if they say it needs to happen. But I’m certain that they will be very aware that the NA assembly plant is distinctly lacking in orders post 2020 and certainly won’t want the plant to close on their watch. I think the contract for the tube stock is pretty certain to be heading in for a UK plant. Political suicide if it didn’t.

Dave1987 said:

So that is a yes you have accepted the DFT PR nonsense. Like I said Hitachi have reportedly been exploring options to put an extra engine under their 80x. Even if the wires were upgraded, and that is an if, the 80x still doesn’t have enough power on Diesel currently for the MML so no 80x would not be fine at this current time. The 80x is a very under powered diesel train at the moment in its current design. And a very heavy electric train.

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I haven't accepted PR nonsense, I think the demands for MML times will be reduced to what an 800 or 802 can manage and very few stops will be made south of Kettering. The DfT has no real choice over upgrading the wires to 125mph because it neccessary to salvage the project. It is clearly a fudge but one that will work.

Chester1 said:

If we never export then it won't be sustainable and frankly any industry entirely reliant on domestic demand staying steady is unlikely to be sustainable. When the bust comes it is upto the owners to provide alternative work or close their sites and risk repeatedly losing tenders that will be bias to UK based manufacturers. Bombardier, Hitachi and CAF are all very capable of finding sufficient export orders to keep their UK factories open and if they decide to then the premise of this thread is irrelevant. Bombardier Derby will soon be producing 1000 coaches per year. That is not sustainable unless they are given a monopoly on EMUs, HS2 and tube trains, they need to start exporting to make that level of production viable in the 2020s. Obviously the Aventra won't be sold abroad but Bombardier has non UK trains it could build in Derby.

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But Bombardier has capacity elsewhere, and capacity that is within both the EU and the Euro zone.

In the past when Derby has not been full, it has done very little export business: Electrostars for South Africa and some trams for Strasbourg, but not much else.

CAF and Hitachi also have Euro zone sites, so why get into exchange rate and import tariff risk when they don’t need to?

History shows we don’t export much rolling stock these days and I think you are being naïve if you believe this will miraculously change. Easier for them to shut the assembly plant if there’s no orders.

Something tells me SouthEastern may go with Aventras. They are perfect for the sort of role 465s play. That would keep Bombardier in business without a doubt.

43096 said:

But Bombardier has capacity elsewhere, and capacity that is within both the EU and the Euro zone.

In the past when Derby has not been full, it has done very little export business: Electrostars for South Africa and some trams for Strasbourg, but not much else.

CAF and Hitachi also have Euro zone sites, so why get into exchange rate and import tariff risk when they don’t need to?

History shows we don’t export much rolling stock these days and I think you are being naïve if you believe this will miraculously change. Easier for them to shut the assembly plant if there’s no orders.

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Maybe but I won't shed a tear if we lose an industry that is incapable of exporting. It is a pretty basic requirement to survive and doesn't say much if non European countries always buy trains from Japan, China or Europe over the UK.

Could a viable DMU be made out of either Siemen's Desiro City platform or Bombardier's Aventra platform or would one or either of them be too small to accommodate an engine of a decent rating and house all the required emissions equipment?

43096 said:

But Bombardier has capacity elsewhere, and capacity that is within both the EU and the Euro zone.

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We should also expect that for their EU customers, the prospect of rolling stock being built outside the EU (In this case post-Brexit UK) would be as politically sensitive as it is for UK stock to be built outside the UK

SpacePhoenix said:

Could a viable DMU be made out of either Siemen's Desiro City platform or Bombardier's Aventra platform or would one or either of them be too small to accommodate an engine of a decent rating and house all the required emissions equipment?

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Rolling stock design falls under intellectual property, why are you asking us?

Derby apart, all the UK factory sites are in reality finishing plants, dependent on key components coming from elsewhere.
Even Derby imports a significant proportion of its components.
Much of the UK-originated componentry is UK-specific. Not much demand abroad for (eg) BR TPWS electronics.
UK plants face the issue of the delivery of finished trains by rail being difficult because of the restricted gauge to Channel Tunnel/ports.
All of Hitachi, Alstom, CAF and Talgo (if they come) have major manufacturing plants in Europe which will take priority in their plans.
I would not bank on exports coming to the rescue.
Labour might also have other train supply ideas if they get in, but they haven't thought it through yet.

What about exporting to outside of Europe? This debate seems to assume the EU is the only option for exports when Bombardier, Hitachi and CAFs European factory makes it less likely. Its pretty pathetic if the UK can't export 10-20% of the trains it makes especially when there is huge rail investment worldwide. China will pressumably dominate the lower end of the market but there should be some demand for higher end trains.

Chester1 said:

Maybe but I won't shed a tear if we lose an industry that is incapable of exporting. It is a pretty basic requirement to survive and doesn't say much if non European countries always buy trains from Japan, China or Europe over the UK.

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But the train builders are either global (Bombardier, Hitachi and Alstom/Siemens) or European (CAF) and will make capacity decisions on that basis. A small country on the outer fringes of Europe that is hell bent on walking away from its European trading partners is not in a strong position when such decisions are made.

Japan seems to be an internal market in itself and difficult to break into whilst Donald Trump is going on about America first

It is strongly suggested that the South Eastern franchise ITT will encourage bidders to propose new trains, at least to replace the Networkers and maybe more. If I were Hitachi I'd make a huge effort to win that order. I'd point out that SE are already running 395s and that class 465 have been re-equipped with Hitachi traction equipment. I'd be thinking about an offer that would make replacing classes 375 and 376 very attractive as well. If that happened, and if Bombardier and Hitachi jointly win the new tube order, it would strengthen the likelihood, as pointed out by others, that Derby and Newton Ayliffe will survive. And I'll let you all know when Hitachi offer me a job as a consultant!

Class 170101 said:

Japan seems to be an internal market in itself and difficult to break into whilst Donald Trump is going on about America first

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Before Hitachi were allowed into the European market, there should have been a reciprocal deal giving European manufacturers access to the Japanese market.

As for the US, there are the "buy American" rules that specify a certain proportion of products being US built. Siemens have got past this as they have a plant in Sacramento that is building ACS64 electric locos and Charger diesel locos, so it can be done.

3141 said:

It is strongly suggested that the South Eastern franchise ITT will encourage bidders to propose new trains, at least to replace the Networkers and maybe more. If I were Hitachi I'd make a huge effort to win that order. I'd point out that SE are already running 395s and that class 465 have been re-equipped with Hitachi traction equipment. I'd be thinking about an offer that would make replacing classes 375 and 376 very attractive as well. If that happened, and if Bombardier and Hitachi jointly win the new tube order, it would strengthen the likelihood, as pointed out by others, that Derby and Newton Ayliffe will survive. And I'll let you all know when Hitachi offer me a job as a consultant!

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Bombardier / Hitachi will most likely win the tube order. They will probably offer a price that means having a very low profit to provide work for their factories and try to make bigger profits on higher value orders e.g. HS2.

Hitachi is the only realistic manufacturer for bi modes for the proposed London to Hastings service via HS1. I very much doubt another manufacturer will design an 140mph bi mode. The 395 is no longer produced so I would guess they will propose some sort of variants of the 385 for Southeastern and East Midlands (Corby).

NA apparently produces 250 coaches a year with 1000 staff so lets assume CAF Newport with 300 staff will have 30% of the capacity - 75 coaches. Bombardier Derby can produce 1000 coaches a year. CAF Newport must be safe for several years with 195s providing regular work with some EMUs and possibly Mark Vs on top. The biggest risk to Bombardier and Hitachi would be Alstom winning a big tube order.

*Edited after checking Roger Fords estimates in Decembers Modern Railways.

absolutelymilk said:

there don't seem to be many possible orders for the early 2020s - will a lot of manufacturers come unstuck?

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There's certainly an argument that the UK market won't be large enough to sustain the number of companies rushing to build facilities here (and, if we're being realistic, it probably shouldn't be large enough to sustain that many factories etc - it just wouldn't be sustainable in the long term).

But maybe that's private companies taking risks with their own money, giving us a competitive market (if the alternative is a monopoly where we have to give each new contract to an unimaginative company who feel they have an automatic right to win every tender because they are the only "British" firm bidding).

However, I would point out that, just over a year ago, there was an expectation that the GEML would become a dumping ground for the BR-era EMUs cascaded from the Great Northern - there'd be a hundred 321s running out of Liverpool Street (plus best part of a hundred 317s etc)... then Abellio win the franchise with an order for over a thousand brand new carriages (and all the BR EMUs may be lucky to find a home).

Then, in the last few months, we've seen First/MTR order seven hundred and fifty carriages for SWR - which seemed to surprise a lot of people (given that it means replacing box fresh EMUs).

So, I wouldn't make any predictions about the state of orders in five years time - orders may have fried up by then but equally we may be seeing the final BR-era EMUs being scrapped as the economics make it cheaper to buy brand new everything than to try to patch up 1980s trains - who knows. If the new South Eastern franchise goes the way of GA/ SWR then there could be hundreds of new coaches required. Maybe the Scottish HSTs won't last in squadron service for a decade so replacement will be on the cards (once the electrification programme has settled down, allowing focus on the unnelectrified lines). Maybe the East Midlands/ Wales & Borders franchise bidders will find it's cheaper/ simpler to order a big fleet of new DMUs than trying to muddle along with 150/ 153/ 156/ 158s etc? Maybe a reintroduced Wessex will have a brand new fleet bestowed upon it? The 195 production line is staying open after Northern get theirs - the GA bi-modes will be bedded in too.

The only thing I will predict is that people will find any excuse to moan about IET, even on threads that have little to do with them!

The DLR is having all its stock completely replaced, of the "UK" plants, I imagine CAF's is the only one which might be used?

Mikey C said:

The DLR is having all its stock completely replaced, of the "UK" plants, I imagine CAF's is the only one which might be used?

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Delivery for the fleet would be 2022 to 2024 so Bombardier Derby has sufficient capacity too. Alstom is also short listed but I doubt they would start production in Widness for 43 DLR trains of approximately 87m length. Siemens and Stadler are bidding together. Bombardier needs the order the most and will probably bid accordingly. 1000 coaches per year is far too much capacity will envitably drop during the 2020s. CAF doesn't need to win much to make its Newport site a success and it currently has a monopoly on new build UK DMUs.

With the HS2 order I guess you would expect the UK factories for Bombardier, Hitachi and the new Alstom plant to have some involvement in the build, Talgo have said they will build a UK factory which will allegidly be more than an assembly/finishing plant although expect the others think that's a bit more competition they could do without.

There's also the new Glasgow Subway and T&W Metro fleet contracts up for grabs. Would be good for CAF, they build good Metro trains.

LeeLivery said:

There's also the new Glasgow Subway and T&W Metro fleet contracts up for grabs. Would be good for CAF, they build good Metro trains.

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The new Glasgow Subway trains are being built by Stadler.
http://www.spt.co.uk/2016/03/new-subway-trains-unveiled/

nicholaswood said:

The new Glasgow Subway trains are being built by Stadler.
http://www.spt.co.uk/2016/03/new-subway-trains-unveiled/

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Thanks! I totally missed that. I thought the picture was a generic artists impression.

I've just seen that the GWR franchise is likely to be extended to March 2022 - this is probably quite helpful for the topic of this thread because it would be good timing for the franchise winner to replace the remaining DMUs.

Chester1 said:

I doubt there are many (if any) parts that have to be made in Europe.

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The 80x diesel power packs are from Europe (MTU - Rolls Royce Germany).
80x ETCS kit is also European (Hitachi bought Ansaldo STS in Italy, as well as the Pistoia plant).
Seating is also European I think.

Full list of European parts (UK/EU): http://www.hitachirail-eu.com/sites...rary/2015/12/08/75d9d8d3/IEPEUSupplyChain.jpg
UK only: http://www.hitachirail-eu.com/sites...rary/2015/12/08/8505fb80/IEPUKSupplyChain.jpg