Metropolitan Line Extension (MLX/Croxley Rail Link)

All Line Rover · 21 Mar 2017

yorkie said:
The existing Met branch is a waste of capacity as it goes to a part of Watford not many people want to go to!

In what sense does it waste capacity if it is only served by all-stations and semi-fast services and the line between Moor Park and Baker Street is at capacity? Would filling the trains by Moor Park be of benefit to those boarding at Northwood, etc? I'm not entirely convinced by the merits of this proposed project.

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yorkie · 21 Mar 2017

All Line Rover said:
In what sense does it waste capacity if it is only served by all-stations and semi-fast services and the line between Moor Park and Baker Street is at capacity? Would filling the trains by Moor Park be of benefit to those boarding at Northwood, etc? I'm not entirely convinced by the merits of this proposed project.

This has all been answered numerous times before, and the information is available on their website. A lot of people would use the line for stations between Harrow & Watford Jn. Not everyone wants to go directly to central London and nowhere else.

For example, how many people are going to cross Watford to head North from Watford Jn after an event at Wembley Stadium? Almost no-one. With this link, all sorts of journeys become viable without the need to go via London.

If anyone believes the BCR figure is incorrect, perhaps the flaws in their methodology could be revealed, and an alternative methodology provided?

All Line Rover · 21 Mar 2017

But would an improved service not increase the number of journeys into central London from north of Moor Park, perhaps considerably more so than the number of new journeys in the northern suburbs? This would not affect the BCR, but having to stand for 40+ minutes when formerly there were seats available on certain trains is not an attractive thought. The Northern Line extension, by comparison, does not raise this concern.

MikeWh · 21 Mar 2017

yorkie said:
For example, how many people are going to cross Watford to head North from Watford Jn after an event at Wembley Stadium? Almost no-one.

I think most people in this category would walk first to Wembley Central rather than Wembley Park.

DynamicSpirit · 21 Mar 2017

All Line Rover said:
But would an improved service not increase the number of journeys into central London from north of Moor Park, perhaps considerably more so than the number of new journeys in the northern suburbs? This would not affect the BCR, but having to stand for 40+ minutes when formerly there were seats available on certain trains is not an attractive thought. The Northern Line extension, by comparison, does not raise this concern.

Why would it increase journeys to central London from north of Moor Park? You have a possible increase from people living near to the new stations - Ascot Road and Watford General Hospital, but balanced by the fact that people living near the Watford end of the met line who currently travel to central London on the Met will now have the alternative option of going to Watford Junction and changing to a London Midland fast train - which may be quicker for some parts of central London. That would suggest on balance not much net impact on passengers going right into central London.

As Yorkie and others have pointed out, the main increase in passenger numbers is likely to be from passengers not going as far as central London, who will be able to connect to a much wider variety of destinations (Aylesbury to Watford Junction, Hemel Hempstead to Moor Park, Milton Keynes to Harrow-on-the-Hill, Hatch End to Watford General Hospital, etc.)

All Line Rover · 21 Mar 2017

Bearing in mind that travelling via Watford Junction is considerably more expensive, I wouldn't anticipate many passengers for whom this would be convenient (Euston area, Oxford Circus, Tottenham Court Road, Bank, etc) taking this option.

Hemel Hempstead to Moor Park doesn't seem to have quite the level of untapped demand as Oxford to Bedford, unless I am missing something.

More frustrating issues for journeys in west London include the absence of WCML platforms at Willesden Junction and Met line trains at West Hampstead.

Taunton · 21 Mar 2017

All Line Rover said:
More frustrating issues for journeys in west London include the absence of WCML platforms at Willesden Junction and Met line trains at West Hampstead.

There was a vague plan in the 1970s, reported in rail magazines at the time, to build an interconnecting station at West Hampstead, with platforms on the Midland Main Line, North London Overground, Marylebone Line, Jubilee, and Met (the latter replacing Finchley Road).

Given the loads at the likes of Clapham Junction, an interesting thought.

ChiefPlanner · 21 Mar 2017

Taunton said:
There was a vague plan in the 1970s, reported in rail magazines at the time, to build an interconnecting station at West Hampstead, with platforms on the Midland Main Line, North London Overground, Marylebone Line, Jubilee, and Met (the latter replacing Finchley Road).

Given the loads at the likes of Clapham Junction, an interesting thought.

Most of the under used ex railway goods yards (including the link from the Met to the Midland) around Finchley Road and West Hampstead) have now been built on , and indeed construction of £500,000+ apartments continues on every sliver of land. Overground sation though is getting a new ticket hall / entrance - something that the JLE station could desparately do with.

Tetchytyke · 21 Mar 2017

yorkie said:
To suggest this adds "virtually nothing to network connectivity" is absurd.

I don't think it does, and the BCE was based on the original estimated cost of the project. The original estimated cost was about half what TfL now believe the project will actually cost. That has a huge impact on whether the project is worthwhile.

The existing Met branch is a waste of capacity as it goes to a part of Watford not many people want to go to!

That assumes that people want to go to Watford in the first place.

The extension would help connectivity for Aylesbury, Amersham, Rickmansworth and Chesham into Watford, definitely. But, unfortunately, that again isn't TfL's problem. That's a problem for Herts and Bucks councils. For people within Greater London the extension wouldn't really create any new links that aren't dealt with by Overground and London Midland services from Harrow and Wealdstone and Wembley Central. At its furthest the Met is about two miles from the WCML- it's less than 1.5 miles from Pinner to Hatch End, for instance- and that really isn't far enough to claim "new links".

I'm very disappointed that it's looking like the link will never be built. But I don't see how we can blame TfL for it. TfL were given a hospital pass by DafT and Herts CC, and now because London voted for a Labour mayor the Conservative government won't assist any further. I don't see how TfL can justify spending London taxpayer cash on a project that primarily benefits the people of Herts and Bucks.

rebmcr · 21 Mar 2017

It also benefits Londoners along the Met line accessing locations further north on the WCML (and the reverse).

Joe Paxton · 21 Mar 2017

Arctic Troll said:
I don't think it does, and the BCR was based on the original estimated cost of the project. The original estimated cost was about half what TfL now believe the project will actually cost. That has a huge impact on whether the project is worthwhile. ...

That is the crucial point, I think.

Did Herts CC, who originally led the scheme, simply make a hash of it? (e.g. By being far too optimistic on the costs?)

Seems like unless DfT provides some extra funding, it ain't happening. (And TfL gets to be the whipping boy for its cancellation.)

Perhaps the whole project goes on freeze until the next general election? (Watford used to be a three-way marginal constituency, though less so now in the one-party state of England.)

Busaholic · 21 Mar 2017

Arctic Troll said:
I don't think it does, and the BCE was based on the original estimated cost of the project. The original estimated cost was about half what TfL now believe the project will actually cost. That has a huge impact on whether the project is worthwhile.

That assumes that people want to go to Watford in the first place.

The extension would help connectivity for Aylesbury, Amersham, Rickmansworth and Chesham into Watford, definitely. But, unfortunately, that again isn't TfL's problem. That's a problem for Herts and Bucks councils. For people within Greater London the extension wouldn't really create any new links that aren't dealt with by Overground and London Midland services from Harrow and Wealdstone and Wembley Central. At its furthest the Met is about two miles from the WCML- it's less than 1.5 miles from Pinner to Hatch End, for instance- and that really isn't far enough to claim "new links".

I'm very disappointed that it's looking like the link will never be built. But I don't see how we can blame TfL for it. TfL were given a hospital pass by DafT and Herts CC, and now because London voted for a Labour mayor the Conservative government won't assist any further. I don't see how TfL can justify spending London taxpayer cash on a project that primarily benefits the people of Herts and Bucks.

There is the very real possibility that the Evening Standard (editor-in-waiting George Osborne) will weigh in on this, omitting to mention that the then Chancellor of the Exchequer (the very same G.Osborne) signed off the amount of dosh that the Mayor, and hence TfL, are getting for transport in the next few years. The situation could become even more interesting should Mr Osborne consider offering his 'talents' in the Conservative cause to be the next London Mayor, as is being whispered in the Tea Room.

RT4038 · 21 Mar 2017

rebmcr said:
It also benefits Londoners along the Met line accessing locations further north on the WCML (and the reverse).

But these stations are quite close to stations on the Euston-Watford Junction Overground line.
Yes it would benefit passengers travelling from Aylesbury and intermediate stations travelling to and from Watford, but the East West link will cater for passengers travelling to Milton Keynes.
I accept that some people will benefit, but it seems an awful lot of money to spend when there must be projects benefitting far more people in the London area that the money could be spent on.

PR1Berske · 21 Mar 2017

Would it be remiss of me to suggest that the question mark at the end of this thread's title be removed given recent events?

Tetchytyke · 22 Mar 2017

rebmcr said:
It also benefits Londoners along the Met line accessing locations further north on the WCML (and the reverse).

Not really, given that most long-distance trains on the WCML don't stop at Watford Junction.

The Met and the WCML really are very close together.

Busaholic said:
There is the very real possibility that the Evening Standard (editor-in-waiting George Osborne) will weigh in on this, omitting to mention that the then Chancellor of the Exchequer (the very same G.Osborne) signed off the amount of dosh that the Mayor, and hence TfL, are getting for transport in the next few years

Oh, there's no doubt that they will dine out on the fact that a Labour mayor has kicked a Conservative-instigated project into the long grass.

I think if Goldsmith had won the election then the extra money would have been found down the back of the sofa at Horseferry Road.

Busaholic · 22 Mar 2017

Arctic Troll said:
I think if Goldsmith had won the election then the extra money would have been found down the back of the sofa at Horseferry Road.

With Goldsmith's grasp of London's geography he wouldn't even be aware that Watford isn't in London.

sk688 · 23 Mar 2017

RT4038 said:
I accept that some people will benefit, but it seems an awful lot of money to spend when there must be projects benefitting far more people in the London area that the money could be spent on.

But this part of North West London , has seen pretty much nothing for a while now , at least in the 15 years since I was born and lived here , I dont think we have got anything compared to the scale of the projects in South and East London . I do think this project is genuinely useful , and believe it needs to go ahead

Also , hasnt some of the work already begun on it , like ground clearing etc ? , so isnt it too late to back out now ?

Joe Paxton · 23 Mar 2017

sk688 said:
...
Also , hasnt some of the work already begun on it , like ground clearing etc ? , so isnt it too late to back out now ?

Definitely not too late to back out.

edwin_m · 24 Mar 2017

If a big contract had been signed then whoever cancelled would face some sort of penalty payment. However no public body would be allowed to sign a contract without the funding in place to pay for it, which TfL evidently don't have or at least aren't prepared to spend on this project.

De-vegging is typically done on a small "enabling works" contract as it is needed to allow access to the site for detailed surveys. It can't be done during the bird nesting season so often a small contract will be signed to get it done beforehand and avoid several months delay.

deltic · 22 Jun 2017

Update from TfL this week says the cost has increased by £50m to £334.4m and they dont have the money. They have basically passed the ball back to DfT and Hertfordshire to solve the funding shortage.

At around £100m a mile the scheme makes HS2 look cheap.

rebmcr · 22 Jun 2017

I wonder whether that includes the cost of the already-bought extra S7+1?

PR1Berske · 2 Nov 2017

I hope this is the right place to put this quote...

7.1 TfL’s programme for delivering the works will be revised if additional funding for the MLX is committed.

7.2 Unless and until such additional funding for the MLX is committed, TfL will close-out its activities in respect of the project. In particular, the stage 1 design works, being completed through the Design & Build Contract and the Network Rail GRIP3 option selection works will be completed to provide a baseline design for the scheme from which the MLX could be taken forward in the future, subject to the relevant powers and a suitable funding package being made available to secure the delivery of the project.

7.3 Were arrangements to be put in place by DfT and/or local funding partners to provide additional funding for the MLX for costs above the current £284.4m funding package, TfL could consider safeguarding the ability to deliver the scheme beyond the August 2018 deadline. This would involve LUL discharging the pre-commencement planning conditions and exercising compulsory purchase powers (under the TWAO) to enable a discrete package of works to be procured and delivered before that date to demonstrate the scheme had been implemented. However, for TfL to be assured that the programme included a prudent level of contingency to cater for delay (bearing in mind this deadline is absolute), the additional funding would need to be secured by 31 December 2017

From this source:. http://diamondgeezer.blogspot.co.uk/2017/11/mayoral-decision-metropolitan-line.html

edwin_m · 2 Jan 2018

London Reconnections has published a summary (obituary?) of the project now it is almost certainly too late for it to go ahead.
https://www.londonreconnections.com/2017/the-metropolitan-line-extension-deadline-day/

On 26 March 2015, outgoing London Mayor and current Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson issued Mayoral Decision MD1478. Based on a cost estimate only 50% likely to be correct, London agreed to fund a transport project, with no cost ceiling, that primarily benefitted a Conservative marginal seat outside of the capital.

The 4th Rail · 15 Jan 2018

Random question thats vaguely related. Does anyone know if the S stocks got given the announcements for the extension?

WAB · 15 Jan 2018

There are certainly images somewhere on the interwebs with Watford Junction as a destination on the front DMI - I'd therefore assume that announcements for the extension are on the DVA.

Dstock7080 · 15 Jan 2018

The 4th Rail said:
Random question thats vaguely related. Does anyone know if the S stocks got given the announcements for the extension?

LatymerKing said:
There are certainly images somewhere on the interwebs with Watford Junction as a destination on the front DMI - I'd therefore assume that announcements for the extension are on the DVA.

yes, all S Stock are capable of displaying Watford Junction and the CIS will announce the correct destination.

DynamicSpirit · 15 Jan 2018

Presumably it's particularly important anyway, as one would've thought a modern train would be designed so that new destinations could relatively easily be added if required, by modifying some software data store somewhere?

rebmcr · 16 Jan 2018

DynamicSpirit said:
Presumably it's particularly important anyway, as one would've thought a modern train would be designed so that new destinations could relatively easily be added if required, by modifying some software data store somewhere?

Unfortunately such systems are often locked behind proprietary interfaces, or hardcoded as part of the train design. Even if the PIS has been produced as an independent reprogrammable unit, there's still the issue of missing voice recordings for which the original artist might no longer be available, or for which the commercial cost is too high.

bramling · 16 Jan 2018

DynamicSpirit said:
Presumably it's particularly important anyway, as one would've thought a modern train would be designed so that new destinations could relatively easily be added if required, by modifying some software data store somewhere?

Yes very easy to do on something like an S stock. The biggest problem is getting the voice to match. LU recently went to quite a lot of trouble to achieve this when updating the 95 stock, with mixed success. Hence presumably why the Watford Junction announcements were done early -- obviously with the hope that the station names don't get changed in the interim.

Of course, virtually everything on LU will need re-doing to some extent for Crossrail.

mr_jrt · 25 Jan 2018

Apparently the £73m shortfall funding has been secured, but Sadiq Kahn has put the kibosh on the project and suggested a guided bus instead.

http://www.watfordobserver.co.uk/ne...n-says-tfl-will-not-pay-for-met-line/?ref=rss

Transport for London will not deliver a Metropolitan line extension, says the MP for Watford.

Richard Harrington offered the £73million shortfall needed to make the project work to Mayor of London Sadiq Khan, who has ultimately said "no".

The money would have covered the shortfall needed to start the building work, as well as control over the tracks and and air space, allowing for development in the property above the stations. ...

Very disappointing, to say the least.

Moderators note: for further discussion on guided busways, please use other threads, as appropriate.

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