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Will Train Orders Slow Down?

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whhistle

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Just having a think about all the new trains we've had.
Will they slow down shortly?

So apart from the next few years when I expect all 15x and below (or older) units to be replaced, will there ever be a slow down? I guess by the time the Sprinters are retired, the 16x and even 17x units will be looking at being replaced - and that's only diesel!
 
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The bonanza at the moment is due to non-PRM-capable trains being replaced, plus finance houses have woken up to the profits ROSCOs have traditionally made.
Once the Pacers etc have been replaced and the financiers realise that the reason ROSCOs historically made such awesome profits is that they were leasing fully-amortised ex-BR stock for huge money, it will dry up again.

Most of the Sprinters will end up with Northern/ATW.
Northern's franchise will last until 2025, when the Sprinters will be ~38-40. Replacing those will be a franchise commitment for the next incumbent i.e. around 2027 allowing for lead times. No way Arriva will commit to replace 120+ sprinters with only a few years left on the franchise.

The 16x and 17x units have another 15 years on them at least. They won't be replaced early.
 

pemma

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I do wonder if the 130+ (already) elderly DMUs that will need replacing asap might put off a lot of bidders for the next Northern franchise, quite probably including Arriva.

It's too early to say. At the moment it's a possibility that the franchise doesn't last until it's expected 2025 expiry date. There's also a possibility DfT will do like with the current GWR franchise and extend the franchise and allow the franchise to acquire brand new trains, undertake internal cascades and release the oldest and worst trains. Doing the latter could mean new trains being introduced in 2025, opposed to an order for new trains being placed in 2025 or cascaded trains being taken on starting in 2025.
 

Dave1987

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I would not bet on the orders slowing down. DFT/MPs/RDG etc have made a big song and dance about the number of new carriages on order so any line not getting new trains would be seen as getting “cast offs” from other areas and that will not sit well with MPs from that region. I doubt any trains will last 35-40 years any more. New train orders are good PR and potential vote winners. Problem is is that leasing companies will want more money so they can get their pound of flesh from their expensive assets.
 

pemma

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I would not bet on the orders slowing down. DFT/MPs/RDG etc have made a big song and dance about the number of new carriages on order so any line not getting new trains would be seen as getting “cast offs” from other areas and that will not sit well with MPs from that region.

Apart from Anglia, Merseyrail, LO and TPE* there's some routes in each franchise which are getting 'cast-offs' whether it's cascaded 150s to replace Pacers and/or 153s or D-Trains to replace 150s. Even SWR are reintroducing 442s, rather than only introducing brand new trains to the franchise. People will be asking questions about why the most lightly loaded branch lines in Anglia can get new trains, while commuter routes in to some of the biggest cities in the England are stuck with 150s for the forseeable future.

* That may change if Liverpool to Nottingham gets moved to the TPE franchise.
 
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It's too early to say. At the moment it's a possibility that the franchise doesn't last until it's expected 2025 expiry date. There's also a possibility DfT will do like with the current GWR franchise and extend the franchise and allow the franchise to acquire brand new trains, undertake internal cascades and release the oldest and worst trains. Doing the latter could mean new trains being introduced in 2025, opposed to an order for new trains being placed in 2025 or cascaded trains being taken on starting in 2025.
Problem is that Northern has so many Sprinters of the same vintage that they'll all be life-expired at about the same time. Releasing "the oldest and worst trains" - there's about 130 of them. Northern are one small step up from a scrapyard at the moment.
They may be able to scrape up some additional 16x's, 17x's & 185's but that will only cover about a third. The rest will need replacing with new (in number anyway, it'll be the usual internal cascading rather than direct replacement of a 150 with a new DMU).

Dave1987's comment about MPs kicking up a fuss about old trains - it'll depend who's in power.
Labour, they'll probably be listened to.
Conservative, just see how much the current Govt listens to MPs from the North...
 

Mollman

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I think Chiltern may hold the key to a lot of this. The Franchise is up for renewal in 2021 meaning that if they were to go for a wholesale replacement of the fleet there would be some 168s dating from early to mid 2000s available to replace Sprinters at Northern in 2025. Chiltern's method of making up 4+ coach trains out of 2, 3 and 4 coach units is no longer in fashion and therefor it would be unsurprising if whoever wins the franchised ordered 4, 6 and 8 coach DMUs. Of course a plan to electrify the Chiltern lines would be great but I can't see this happening (and it would be most likely 2030 by the time EMUs started replacing 165s and 168s).
 

pemma

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I think Chiltern may hold the key to a lot of this. The Franchise is up for renewal in 2021 meaning that if they were to go for a wholesale replacement of the fleet there would be some 168s dating from early to mid 2000s available to replace Sprinters at Northern in 2025. Chiltern's method of making up 4+ coach trains out of 2, 3 and 4 coach units is no longer in fashion and therefor it would be unsurprising if whoever wins the franchised ordered 4, 6 and 8 coach DMUs. Of course a plan to electrify the Chiltern lines would be great but I can't see this happening (and it would be most likely 2030 by the time EMUs started replacing 165s and 168s).

Doubt over whether or not lines will be electrified would likely prevent a new DMU order. There aren't that many 168s and they are compatible with 165s and 166s not 170s, so it might make more sense for them to go to GWR and then GWR will have all the 16xs and be able to withdraw all their Sprinters, with the small number of 172s going to West Midlands for fleet consistency if Chiltern went for complete fleet replacement.
 

LNW-GW Joint

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South Eastern is next, followed by West Coast Partnership (classic stock) and then East Midlands and XC in 2019.
Plenty of scope for new trains in all these, but maybe not so much at WCP (waiting for HS2 stock to be resolved).
Bi-modes should figure strongly, also Networker replacement at SE. Will we see new 3rd rail bi-modes?
Believe it or not, ICGW is next, despite the torrent of new stock it is getting over the next couple of years (not to mention 769s).
Time to rationalise the rag bag of ex-BR DMUs at GWR.
Northern and TPE will have to wait till the next franchise round for another bite at the cherry.
 

D2007wsm

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South Eastern is next, followed by West Coast Partnership (classic stock) and then East Midlands and XC in 2019.
Plenty of scope for new trains in all these, but maybe not so much at WCP (waiting for HS2 stock to be resolved).
Bi-modes should figure strongly, also Networker replacement at SE. Will we see new 3rd rail bi-modes?
Believe it or not, ICGW is next, despite the torrent of new stock it is getting over the next couple of years (not to mention 769s).
Time to rationalise the rag bag of ex-BR DMUs at GWR.
Northern and TPE will have to wait till the next franchise round for another bite at the cherry.
Exactly, GWR may be getting or have got new trains for the long distance 'Intercity' services and the commuter services in the Thames Valley, but I'm the West we don't get that. All of the DMUs are ex BR, no by and new DMUS in the area since the 158s. Some investment needs to be made on the 'West' services giving new DMUs, rather than refurbished 150, 158s, Mini HSTs and 165/166 cast offs from the Thames Valley which haven't even been touched yet inside.
 

The Ham

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One thing to bear in mind is that there's a lot more trains then there was under BR, as such just to replace those that are getting old will require a lot of new trains. Add in that there's a desire for more and longer trains and although it may slow down, there's unlikely to be a drought any time soon.

Just to pick up on SWR (none metro) getting cast offs rather than a new fleet I would expect that part of the reason for this is that there's a lot of uncertainty about what may happen (Southern Approach to Heathrow, Crossrail 2, etc.). As such a new fleet now may not be big enough in 10 years time and so it's better to hold on for a bit longer and then replace with a big upgrade/increase in capacity all at once.
 

D9009Spotter

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Reading through the Railway Mag I got this morning, it seems the Wales and vorders franchise is following in the footsteps of the Greater Anglia franchise is a complete fleet overhaul. It says everything will go. The Mk3s replaced by Mk4s seemed to be just about the only remaining handed down element of stock not being brand new.

All new CAF DMUs feature highly on the list with Stadler also winning contracts for Bi and Tri mode 3 and 4 car units. So where next for all the 175s and 158s? And even the 170s that are being brought through as an interim measure? All perfectly good units designed for work that's no longer there just like the FL 70s inder G&W. And with someone earlier mentioning the franchises that are up for grabs in the near future I'd expect more Hitachi orders and maybe even a few more CAF and Bombardier Intercity Aventras.
 

The Ham

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Reading through the Railway Mag I got this morning, it seems the Wales and vorders franchise is following in the footsteps of the Greater Anglia franchise is a complete fleet overhaul. It says everything will go. The Mk3s replaced by Mk4s seemed to be just about the only remaining handed down element of stock not being brand new.

All new CAF DMUs feature highly on the list with Stadler also winning contracts for Bi and Tri mode 3 and 4 car units. So where next for all the 175s and 158s? And even the 170s that are being brought through as an interim measure? All perfectly good units designed for work that's no longer there just like the FL 70s inder G&W. And with someone earlier mentioning the franchises that are up for grabs in the near future I'd expect more Hitachi orders and maybe even a few more CAF and Bombardier Intercity Aventras.

Given that the full fleet replacement isn't until 2022/2023 it is likely that many could well end up at Northern, likewise TPE.

Depending on the next SWR franchise they could be benefit from some extra 158's.
 

urpert

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Reading through the Railway Mag I got this morning, it seems the Wales and vorders franchise is following in the footsteps of the Greater Anglia franchise is a complete fleet overhaul. It says everything will go. The Mk3s replaced by Mk4s seemed to be just about the only remaining handed down element of stock not being brand new.

All new CAF DMUs feature highly on the list with Stadler also winning contracts for Bi and Tri mode 3 and 4 car units. So where next for all the 175s and 158s? And even the 170s that are being brought through as an interim measure? All perfectly good units designed for work that's no longer there just like the FL 70s inder G&W. And with someone earlier mentioning the franchises that are up for grabs in the near future I'd expect more Hitachi orders and maybe even a few more CAF and Bombardier Intercity Aventras.

Southeastern is either going to be Alstom (if Stagecoach win) or Hitachi (if one of the others win).
 

ainsworth74

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Problem is is that leasing companies will want more money so they can get their pound of flesh from their expensive assets.

I would broadly agree (though maybe not using quite the same language ;) ) but I'm not sure that it's true in every case. Among the reasons that the 707s from SWT are going barely before they've entered service is because buying another new fleet is actually cheaper overall due to the deal that you can for orders now compared to when they were ordered a few years ago.
 

Mikey C

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I think Chiltern may hold the key to a lot of this. The Franchise is up for renewal in 2021 meaning that if they were to go for a wholesale replacement of the fleet there would be some 168s dating from early to mid 2000s available to replace Sprinters at Northern in 2025. Chiltern's method of making up 4+ coach trains out of 2, 3 and 4 coach units is no longer in fashion and therefor it would be unsurprising if whoever wins the franchised ordered 4, 6 and 8 coach DMUs. Of course a plan to electrify the Chiltern lines would be great but I can't see this happening (and it would be most likely 2030 by the time EMUs started replacing 165s and 168s).

There's no way that a replacement fleet of pure DMUs will be ordered, effectively ensuring diesels running into Marylebone for the next 30 years.

Unless hydrogen trains arrive, I don't know how it will be done, but some form of electrification will surely have to happen at the London end to remove DMUs from the approach into London. I doubt they will be politically acceptable by 2030, by which time diesel road vehicles within Central London will be heavily restricted

East West rail will need some stock, displaced 168s would be an option.
 

D9009Spotter

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East West rail will need some stock, displaced 168s would be an optio


I don't see the east west Cambridge to Oxford line receiving 2nd hand stock. I've got nothing against the 168s, I think they're quality units. But I see that line getting fresh stock and diesel units running into Marylebone for the foreseeable future as I reckon electrification through the Chilterns will bring another meltdown of locals saying eyesore this and that, which they have every right to.

Seeing how well Stadler, Hitachi and Bombarier are doing with bulk orders for new stock, it wouldn't surprise me if it were one of those 3 getting yet another bulk order. As for the XC franchise mentioned earlier. I heard someone a few weeks back speculating a west coast partnership bidder was looking to get rid of the voyagers? If that was the case you it would make sense, in my opinion, to move the voyagers into a unified fleet.
 

Mikey C

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I don't see the east west Cambridge to Oxford line receiving 2nd hand stock. I've got nothing against the 168s, I think they're quality units. But I see that line getting fresh stock and diesel units running into Marylebone for the foreseeable future as I reckon electrification through the Chilterns will bring another meltdown of locals saying eyesore this and that, which they have every right to.

Seeing how well Stadler, Hitachi and Bombarier are doing with bulk orders for new stock, it wouldn't surprise me if it were one of those 3 getting yet another bulk order. As for the XC franchise mentioned earlier. I heard someone a few weeks back speculating a west coast partnership bidder was looking to get rid of the voyagers? If that was the case you it would make sense, in my opinion, to move the voyagers into a unified fleet.
I wasn't suggesting all of the Chiltern line being electrified, that may be too much to hope for, but sections being electrified to remove diesels from critical areas. With East Rail, the timing may be critical in deciding whether it gets new or second stock.
Bimodes would make sense as a replacement for WC Voyagers, reducing diesel under wire running, and removing the last DMUs from Euston.
 

D9009Spotter

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I wasn't suggesting all of the Chiltern line being electrified, that may be too much to hope for, but sections being electrified to remove diesels from critical areas. With East Rail, the timing may be critical in deciding whether it gets new or second stock.
Bimodes would make sense as a replacement for WC Voyagers, reducing diesel under wire running, and removing the last DMUs from Euston.

I could not agree more with your statement of reducing Diesel running under the wires. Great job being done so far by LNER and GWR franchises and it would make sense to do that. That being said I will now point to the EMT franchise. I was looking through the invitation to tender not long back and that said that new stock can be brought whether factory fresh or not. Will that see a whole new fleet in as well? In which case where will the Meridians go? I'd like to see them move the TPE 185s over to Northern. That would create a leap in terms of capacity without the need for 2 new fleets if you see where Im getting.

It remains to be seen though, while it's in my head, if any new locos are ordered in the near future to replace Class 86 and 90 fleets and Freightliner and DB Cargo? I've not heard anything but seeing as how this seems to be a trend I would not be surprised in the slightest.
 

Rail Blues

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doubt any trains will last 35-40 years any more.

Which if any of the 1st generation DMUs saw large numbers of their class reach 40 years of service? I can't think of any off hand, but plenty had quite short service lives.
 

DanNCL

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Which if any of the 1st generation DMUs saw large numbers of their class reach 40 years of service? I can't think of any off hand, but plenty had quite short service lives.
Pretty certain the 101s lasted until the early 2000s...
 

EE Andy b1

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Bimodes would make sense as a replacement for WC Voyagers, reducing diesel under wire running, and removing the last DMUs from Euston.

This would make complete sense and as i was told under West Coast Franchise thread, RENFE in Spain have a Bi-mode Unit made by TALGO which tilts as well, which if made to fit our loading gauge and updated with today's technology would perhaps fit the bill.
TALGO are bidding for HS2 classic compatible rolling stock, but could be an idea to replace 221s and unify that fleet elsewhere, especially if Tilt is removed.
 

The Ham

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The 22x's could be an interesting one to guess where there going to end up. If someone comes up with a 125mph plus (on diesel) bimodal, then even XC may not be a safe haven for them.

22x's could be the next thread filler like the 442's have been.
 
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