Kneedown
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Not forgetting the 121/122 bubble cars, only recently retired.
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Will Train Orders Slow Down?
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D9009Spotter
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I've heard Bombardier have developed a 125mph variant of their Aventra product as a push into the intercity market. Remains to be seen whether or not it could be modified to tilt or not though
EE Andy b1
Established Member
Bombardier supposedly have plans for a Bi-mode Aventra unit.
Would this be 125mph on electric and diesel, or would the diesel side fall well short like the 800s on top speed and acceleration.
Does anybody know for sure?
Would this be 125mph on electric and diesel, or would the diesel side fall well short like the 800s on top speed and acceleration.
Does anybody know for sure?
D9009Spotter
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Reading back through a Railway Mag from a couple months back, it suggested the Aventra would be 125 on diesel and electric as it is designed to do what the 800s weren't designed for... To run 125mph away from wires for extended periods of time.
Wivenswold
Established Member
Will train orders slow down? Yes. Will they increase again after that at some point? Yes.
It's been the natural order through my life. Economic conditions change, legislation changes, the profile of passenger numbers is permanently shifting as is Government Policy. I find that, while fun, predicting too far ahead is pointless. Life is a state of constant impermanence and railways are a part of that.
Sit down and work out new stock orders for the next ten years if you like but you'll have to take a guess on a number of variables outside of the railway industry's control. Brexit may cause a collapse of British Industry (the financial sector is already moving out) or it may cause so many trading restrictions that the only option is to buy British, which may or may not push the price of new stock up. With the Conservative Party in a state of rapid decline at the moment and Labour failing to grasp the mantle who's to say there won't be a new greener political class who want to eradicate all diesels by 2030 instead. Or an alt-right wing party surge to power and it's Beaching all over again, or not.
New rolling stock itself comes in peaks and troughs and we're certainly at what appears to be a peak, but then that was said about the housing market for each of the last 20 years, so what does anyone know?
It's been the natural order through my life. Economic conditions change, legislation changes, the profile of passenger numbers is permanently shifting as is Government Policy. I find that, while fun, predicting too far ahead is pointless. Life is a state of constant impermanence and railways are a part of that.
Sit down and work out new stock orders for the next ten years if you like but you'll have to take a guess on a number of variables outside of the railway industry's control. Brexit may cause a collapse of British Industry (the financial sector is already moving out) or it may cause so many trading restrictions that the only option is to buy British, which may or may not push the price of new stock up. With the Conservative Party in a state of rapid decline at the moment and Labour failing to grasp the mantle who's to say there won't be a new greener political class who want to eradicate all diesels by 2030 instead. Or an alt-right wing party surge to power and it's Beaching all over again, or not.
New rolling stock itself comes in peaks and troughs and we're certainly at what appears to be a peak, but then that was said about the housing market for each of the last 20 years, so what does anyone know?
route:oxford
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If Labour nationalise the railways, as they have regularly promised, there'll be no money for new trains - they will have created a massive debt to pay the owners/shareholders of the ROSCOs the full and fair market value of current stock.
EE Andy b1
Established Member
Is that not half the fun..... Not knowing for sure and what chaos may ensue!
Wivenswold
Established Member
I think that view is a little simplistic. The bigger issue would be taking back ownership of Franchises, which they will probably defer until those franchises run out. Nor is there any need to buy ROSCO-held stock, simply lease it just like before or, do as other TOCS are doing, lease new trains from elsewhere.
I'm generally in favour of Nationalisation, essential public services and private profit should never meet but neither do I think it's the paneca for some of the network's biggest challenges but to say Nationalisation equates to no money for new trains sounds like the sort of low-brow attention-grabbing headline on a tabloid newspaper or something Bonkers Boris would say.
D9009Spotter
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If the railways do get renationalised, the ROSCOs will obviously need to give their stock over. However there will still be a mass revamp of the nation's locos, rolling stock and multiple units especially those that are getting old. I reckon projects like the 230s will be sidelined in favour of newer stock as by that point you'll have Hitachi's Newton Aycliffe works, CAFs Newport works and the proposed Siemens works that are apparently on the drawing board so I reckon they'll be trying for the nationwide image of Britain's railways. It would be interesting to see a nationwide livery, or at least regional liveries.
D365
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Why sidelined? 15 year lifespan is almost long enough for two franchise periods.
D9009Spotter
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It's just a gut feeling. Seeing that's the trend. However at this point in this scenario, the franchise system would be no more in a nationalised system, I wouldn't think? Correct me if I'm wrong though.
I have my doubts as to the likelihood of any of the ROSCOs handing their stock over without a fight. They'll be asking for a pretty penny to allow the Government to take control of them, so you'd either be looking at the ROSCO being bought out, or (much like the oft proposed way of renationalising) simply letting contracts run out (or trains come to natural end of life) and then replace with new build.
All very hypothetical of course, I don't think there's much chance of this being on the agenda particularly soon.
Mikey C
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If Corbyn wanted the nationalise all the unwanted 319s, 321s etc, the ROSCOs would be ecstatic
adrock1976
Established Member
Was (or is) one of the ROSCOs part of the Royal Bank of Scotland?
Bearing in mind that RBS was bailed out during the global economic crisis, the New Labour government (they were not new, and were certainly not Labour) missed a trick there by directly taking ownership of the ROSCO as a condition for the bailout.
PS Although off topic, the Icelandic government had the right idea at the time of the global economic crisis: they put the bankers who caused the crisis on trial and sent them to jail. Something that should have happened here in the UK.
Bearing in mind that RBS was bailed out during the global economic crisis, the New Labour government (they were not new, and were certainly not Labour) missed a trick there by directly taking ownership of the ROSCO as a condition for the bailout.
PS Although off topic, the Icelandic government had the right idea at the time of the global economic crisis: they put the bankers who caused the crisis on trial and sent them to jail. Something that should have happened here in the UK.
LNW-GW Joint
Veteran Member
Labour haven't enlightened us on how they would organise a nationalised railway.
Instead of 18 franchises leasing trains from ROSCOs there will probably be 18 public TOCs leasing trains from ROSCOs, all vying for limited government money for new trains.
The Welsh (Labour) Government recently had the chance to buy the new stock for Wales & Borders itself, but in the end went with a cheaper ROSCO deal.
Merseytravel will own its new Stadler fleet, but it is being financed commercially.
An increasing number of train fleets are owned and maintained by the manufacturer on long-term DfT-negotiated contracts (eg Hitachi's IEP).
It's very unlikely any future DfT would want to unpick those contracts.
HS2 stock is going the same way (not to mention HS2 itself not being part of Network Rail).
Instead of 18 franchises leasing trains from ROSCOs there will probably be 18 public TOCs leasing trains from ROSCOs, all vying for limited government money for new trains.
The Welsh (Labour) Government recently had the chance to buy the new stock for Wales & Borders itself, but in the end went with a cheaper ROSCO deal.
Merseytravel will own its new Stadler fleet, but it is being financed commercially.
An increasing number of train fleets are owned and maintained by the manufacturer on long-term DfT-negotiated contracts (eg Hitachi's IEP).
It's very unlikely any future DfT would want to unpick those contracts.
HS2 stock is going the same way (not to mention HS2 itself not being part of Network Rail).
Although couldn't the government allow the contracts on the rolling stock run out, then say to the ROSCO that they need to sell them back to the government at scrap value?
The government could just get new trains and the ROSCO would be stuck paying storage costs for trains that will never turn a wheel again, so they'd be interested in selling back, even if for scrap value as by that time, they're probably paid off anyway.
The government could just get new trains and the ROSCO would be stuck paying storage costs for trains that will never turn a wheel again, so they'd be interested in selling back, even if for scrap value as by that time, they're probably paid off anyway.
LNW-GW Joint
Veteran Member
Ex-BR stock is already at least 25 years old and is nearing end of life.
Most of it will be off the books over the next decade (eg after expiry of the current franchises).
Privatisation stock is significantly newer and generally has a real commercial book value and a much longer forward life (with notable exceptions).
"Rosco" is a woolly term for the range of today's leasing companies.
It is much more than the 3 original ex-BR operations (Porterbrook, Eversholt and Angel).
Much new stock is now in manufacturer's hands, or belongs to one-off finance companies (eg for Voyagers, or the Scotrail 385s).
The treatment of the ex-BR stock is likely to be neither here nor there (old, expensive to maintain, not up to spec), as it will soon be gone.
The worldwide rolling stock market model is now leasing, as it has been for decades for ships and aircraft.
I doubt very much that we will go back to the era where all rolling stock is bought outright by the government (ie by BR).
Maybe people don't remember how difficult it was for BR to get approval to buy new rolling stock.
It's what gave us "2 coaches for every 3", smaller builds of HSTs, and Pacers.
BR had to lease its last tranche of new rolling stock, the class 365 fleet, because the Treasury would not release funds for purchase.
Buying out the Roscos (which are specialised banks, really) would also be seen as anti-business and anti-competitive (they are trying to build global leasing operations).
Most of it will be off the books over the next decade (eg after expiry of the current franchises).
Privatisation stock is significantly newer and generally has a real commercial book value and a much longer forward life (with notable exceptions).
"Rosco" is a woolly term for the range of today's leasing companies.
It is much more than the 3 original ex-BR operations (Porterbrook, Eversholt and Angel).
Much new stock is now in manufacturer's hands, or belongs to one-off finance companies (eg for Voyagers, or the Scotrail 385s).
The treatment of the ex-BR stock is likely to be neither here nor there (old, expensive to maintain, not up to spec), as it will soon be gone.
The worldwide rolling stock market model is now leasing, as it has been for decades for ships and aircraft.
I doubt very much that we will go back to the era where all rolling stock is bought outright by the government (ie by BR).
Maybe people don't remember how difficult it was for BR to get approval to buy new rolling stock.
It's what gave us "2 coaches for every 3", smaller builds of HSTs, and Pacers.
BR had to lease its last tranche of new rolling stock, the class 365 fleet, because the Treasury would not release funds for purchase.
Buying out the Roscos (which are specialised banks, really) would also be seen as anti-business and anti-competitive (they are trying to build global leasing operations).
route:oxford
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Why simplistic? The Labour Party has promised to renationalise "the railway", not renationalise "bits of the railway"
So that means buying all the rolling stock at a fair markert price, a return of "Traveller's Fare" and "Casey Jones", and an end of the shocking treatment of historic railway buildings like Ayr Station Hotel.
There's far more to nationalisation than putting a Union Flag on every coach and calling it "British Railways".
EE Andy b1
Established Member
"Casey Jones" yes please, best of all fast food!
Had many in my time and it shows.
Sorry, back to train orders!
Had many in my time and it shows.
Sorry, back to train orders!
Doctor Fegg
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Nope. Labour has expressly said it won't nationalise the ROSCOs (see 'Rail' passim). Future rolling stock would be procured by Government... but arguably that's already happening with the IETs.
EE Andy b1
Established Member
Also Class 700, and look how great they both are for passengers.
Government have one agenda and that's to do it as cheap as possible.
LNW-GW Joint
Veteran Member
It has also said it will keep private open access and freight operation, which means keeping all the regulatory machinery to ensure fair access to NR infrastructure for all operators.
I would expect them to keep the separate TOC structure as well, as one single rail operation would be considered too unwieldy and unaccountable.
The big question is whether they would maintain the TOC/NR commercial split or try to integrate them somehow.
People forget that BR ended as multiple operators (Intercity, NSE and Regional Railways), divided into separate business units which became the current TOCs.
This was before the privatisation drive after 1991, and the separation of Railtrack/Network Rail from BR in 1993.
Some TOC contracts already extend to 2033 (eg Keolis Amey in Wales), and IEP is contracted to Hitachi/Agility until 2044.
Rail Blues
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Not a lot wrong with IETs and nothing wrong with the 700s as far as a basic metro train goes.
I suppose the private sector, rather than doing things as cheaply as possible are altruistic bodies set up by philanthropists who only care about the passenger? No they do it as cheaply as possible and cream a profit off the top to keep the shareholders happy.
EE Andy b1
Established Member
IETs, great interiors, cheap 1st class, over powering lighting, nice firm seating, seating with no windows whatsoever, sloping floors, not a big issue really. Great trolley service, if your lucky. Under powered, diesel wise. Too many short sets for an Intercity service.
I suppose most of that is subjective though.
700s, basic is right. A modern day cattle truck. No back seat tables, more importantly to commuters no cup holders! But at least you can cram 1200+ people in them now if need be, which i suppose is what there for.
Well that's the privatised railway for you i'm afraid.
From what I've seen though up to now with forthcoming new builds those that are being ordered by TOCs themselves certainly look much more passenger orientated, but the proof will be in the pudding. None of them are perfect that's for sure.
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