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EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

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AM9

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HSTEd said:
GDP will fall by a few percent, and that will be made good by normal economic growth within a few years.
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So GDP will fall even lower by a few percent, whilst the rest of the developed world continues to pull away from us. All this rubbish about "normal economic growth" ingores the fact that the UK's economic growth will follow a normal path downwards.
HSTEd said:
Some sacrifices are clearly justified otherwise all policies would be set solely to optimise GDP growth, but that is not a world I would want to live in.
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Presumably these sacrifices won't really affect your life adversely, so it's "clearly justified". Tough luck on the less fortunate who were led along a path of deceit by the leave campaign by the mainly wealthy pushers of those lies. If anything other than a soft exit or no departure results, those who were duped will be pretty angry as they scratch a living in the brave new UK, land of the free.
It wouldn't materially affect me much but I still feel for those who would be trampled on in the rush of the hardliners to wrap themselves in the union flag.
 
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Senex

Senex

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AM9 said:
So GDP will fall even lower by a few percent, whilst the rest of the developed world continues to pull away from us. All this rubbish about "normal economic growth" ingores the fact that the UK's economic growth will follow a normal path downwards.
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Exactly so. And when it comes to the next investment round for major industries, what chance that Airbus will stay if we are out on WTO terms? And now Japan has its excellent free-trade agreement with the EU and so no duties on cars in only a few years' time, why should they invest to build cars in Britain to go into the EU on WTO terms? And how long will it be before the Eurozone countries will be very unhappy about having their major financial centre not just outside the Eurozone but outside the EU itself and will set about doing their very best to rectify the situation?
(And then there are the non-directly-economic things. How will Britain's diplomatic clout be affected when our people speak just for a medium-sized power with delusions of grandeur rather than as members of a major economic bloc? When the question of membership of the UN Security Council next comes into question, as it surely will, who will support Britain's claim to remain a permanent member? The EU naturally enough will concentrate all its efforts on trying to make sure that France stays put, and if that means no speaking up for us, so be it.)
 
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47802

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AM9 said:
So GDP will fall even lower by a few percent, whilst the rest of the developed world continues to pull away from us. All this rubbish about "normal economic growth" ingores the fact that the UK's economic growth will follow a normal path downwards.

Presumably these sacrifices won't really affect your life adversely, so it's "clearly justified". Tough luck on the less fortunate who were led along a path of deceit by the leave campaign by the mainly wealthy pushers of those lies. If anything other than a soft exit or no departure results, those who were duped will be pretty angry as they scratch a living in the brave new UK, land of the free.
It wouldn't materially affect me much but I still feel for those who would be trampled on in the rush of the hardliners to wrap themselves in the union flag.
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Ahh but you've got Blue Passports without the EU on it, and I'm sure there will be many Airbus and Car Employees willing to sacrifice there well paid jobs for some basic Minimum Wage job.
 
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furnessvale

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Puffing Devil said:
And what exactly are the growth projections for that, other than locally increased profits for ABP
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The UK ports industry is far more than ABP.

Once again you demand precise figures about Brexit whilst apparently happy to accept the far fetched projections by remainers, the vast majority of which could only be proved by the passage of time. The few projections with regard to immediate consequences have sadly (for remainers) failed to materialise.

I can only suggest that you look to the various statements by UK port companies and look (in vain) for any supporting the "beneficial" effects of the Ports Directive.
 
Puffing Devil

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furnessvale said:
The UK ports industry is far more than ABP.

Once again you demand precise figures about Brexit whilst apparently happy to accept the far fetched projections by remainers, the vast majority of which could only be proved by the passage of time. The few projections with regard to immediate consequences have sadly (for remainers) failed to materialise.

I can only suggest that you look to the various statements by UK port companies and look (in vain) for any supporting the "beneficial" effects of the Ports Directive.
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Point me to any independent source that supports your assertion.
 
cactustwirly

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furnessvale said:
Which assertion would that be? The assertion that remainer assertions have yet to be proved or the assertion that UK port owners are against the Ports Directive?
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That exemption from the Ports directive will provide huge economic growth...
BTW stop using 'remainers' as an excuse, remainers don't need to prove as much since remaining kept the status quo.
We haven't left yet so we don't know whether the economic forecast are correct yet.
We're still waiting to see where all these free trade deals are...
 
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furnessvale

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cactustwirly said:
That exemption from the Ports directive will provide huge economic growth...
BTW stop using 'remainers' as an excuse, remainers don't need to prove as much since remaining kept the status quo.
We haven't left yet so we don't know whether the economic forecast are correct yet.
We're still waiting to see where all these free trade deals are...
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Thanks for that confirmation.

By the way, the UK does not have an exemption from the Ports Directive if it remains in the EU. The only way the Ports Directive will not apply to the UK is when we leave.
 
Puffing Devil

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furnessvale said:
Thanks for that confirmation.

By the way, the UK does not have an exemption from the Ports Directive if it remains in the EU. The only way the Ports Directive will not apply to the UK is when we leave.
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So show me the positive impact of not implementing the ports directive. You wanted to leave, you seem that there will be some positive impact of not implementing the directive. Just show me some evidence that it will be a benefit. One published line. Not much to ask?
 
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furnessvale

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Puffing Devil said:
So show me the positive impact of not implementing the ports directive. You wanted to leave, you seem that there will be some positive impact of not implementing the directive. Just show me some evidence that it will be a benefit. One published line. Not much to ask?
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EVERY port operator in the UK believes that the Ports Directive will be bad for UK ports. If that is not good enough for you, tough.

Just like all remainers negative assumptions about leaving, we will not know the truth until we leave.
 
Puffing Devil

Puffing Devil

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furnessvale said:
EVERY port operator in the UK believes that the Ports Directive will be bad for UK ports. If that is not good enough for you, tough.

Just like all remainers negative assumptions about leaving, we will not know the truth until we leave.
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Bad for the ports business, not bad for the economy. Please, just one article that supports this? You can't find one because there isn't one.

It's not for me to show why what we have now is better, it's for those that have pushed for massive disruption to show that the change would be better. You dragged me out of a good place, show me how the new place would be better.
 
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furnessvale

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Puffing Devil said:
Bad for the ports business, not bad for the economy. Please, just one article that supports this? You can't find one because there isn't one.

It's not for me to show why what we have now is better, it's for those that have pushed for massive disruption to show that the change would be better. You dragged me out of a good place, show me how the new place would be better.
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What a strange outlook. Something that is universally accepted as being bad for a major industry within the UK but it will not be bad for the economy as a whole.

On that basis, the Remain mantra that leaving the EU will be bad for UK business must be hogwash. The UK economy will be unaffected.
 
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SilentGrade

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Puffing Devil said:
Bad for the ports business, not bad for the economy. Please, just one article that supports this?
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Pretty sure I can remember reading a FT article about how it could harm investment in British Ports. I don't know much about the directive but it does appear that it is universally opposed by British Port operators who are successful private enterprises hoping to retain access to the single market.
 
Bromley boy

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Puffing Devil said:
And many are happy for that to continue, which is why we voted to remain.

And your point is ?
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The point being that a vote to remain in a union that has changed, and will continue to change, cannot accurately be described as a vote for the status quo, as the previous poster did.
 
EM2

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furnessvale said:
What a strange outlook. Something that is universally accepted as being bad for a major industry within the UK but it will not be bad for the economy as a whole.
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Universally accepted by that industry. Just like Brexit has been universally accepted as being bad for the motor industry.
On that basis, the Remain mantra that leaving the EU will be bad for UK business must be hogwash. The UK economy will be unaffected.
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You've found one industry that says it will be badly affected if we remain. There are hundreds (including ones that are much bigger than the port industry) that say they will be badly affected if we leave.
 
EM2

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Bromley boy said:
The point being that a vote to remain in a union that has changed, and will continue to change, cannot accurately be described as a vote for the status quo, as the previous poster did.
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The status quo means 'the existing state or condition'. Knowing that the EU will change in the future and having influence on that is part of the status quo.
 
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furnessvale

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EM2 said:
Universally accepted by that industry. Just like Brexit has been universally accepted as being bad for the motor industry.

You've found one industry that says it will be badly affected if we remain. There are hundreds (including ones that are much bigger than the port industry) that say they will be badly affected if we leave.
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I was asked to give ONE example and I gave ONE example. No doubt if I gave TWO I would be asked for THREE ad infinitum.
 
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furnessvale

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EM2 said:
Yes, I'm well aware of that. My point is your extrapolation of that to cover the entire economy being adversely affected by remaining.
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If you are referring to #10217 that most definitely was irony.

I am sure some UK business would be better off remaining in the EU, including one featured on TV some time ago where the only UK input to the whole operation was putting EU made items into pretty boxes and sending them to various shops!
 
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nidave

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furnessvale said:
EVERY port operator in the UK believes that the Ports Directive will be bad for UK ports. If that is not good enough for you, tough.

Just like all remainers negative assumptions about leaving, we will not know the truth until we leave.
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How about the extra work 100's of thousands of companies will have, completing customs declarations which they have never had to do before - especially SME businesses. Who is going to pay for all the extra work needed? Prices will have to rise or companies will move.
"In 2015, there were around 55 million customs declarations, a figure which is set to increase to 255 million after Brexit. However, CDS was originally designed to handle 150 million declarations each year."
https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/...l_tax_plans_in_favour_of_pressing_customs_it/

"If the UK stays in the customs union, many businesses won't need to declare; in a no-deal situation they will, which would nearly double traders from 150,000 to 295,000 with no transition period."
https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/07/12/hmrc_bosses_outline_chief_concerns_for_customs_it/
 
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Jonny

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nidave said:
How about the extra work 100's of thousands of companies will have, completing customs declarations which they have never had to do before - especially SME businesses. Who is going to pay for all the extra work needed? Prices will have to rise or companies will move.
"In 2015, there were around 55 million customs declarations, a figure which is set to increase to 255 million after Brexit. However, CDS was originally designed to handle 150 million declarations each year."
https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/...l_tax_plans_in_favour_of_pressing_customs_it/

"If the UK stays in the customs union, many businesses won't need to declare; in a no-deal situation they will, which would nearly double traders from 150,000 to 295,000 with no transition period."
https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/07/12/hmrc_bosses_outline_chief_concerns_for_customs_it/
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Up-scaling of IT is a lot easier these days, sure you might need more capacity but that is quite easily done.
 
EM2

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Did anyone know that new Brexit secretary Dominic Raab was willing to ignore the will of the people if Remain had won?
https://www.politicshome.com/news/u...ain-are-getting-jittery-–-were-winning-debate

Assuming the bookies are right and there is a (probably narrow) vote to Remain, the Tory MP for Esher and Walton reckons we could get a couple of years of relative peace and quiet before it cranks up all over again.

The catalyst next time, he says, will be when David Cameron announces he is standing down as prime minister and Conservative leader some time between now and 2019.

“You would be naïve to suggest that it wouldn’t become a factor and one element in that,” says Raab. “I think the sensible thing, if it’s very close – within a couple of points – would be to take pause, respect the verdict of the British people and effectively shelve this debate until that point, which I hope is going to be as close to the 2020 election as possible.
I think that’s the pragmatic, sensible approach. Then we can all get on with delivering the business of government.”

This “pause for breath” would give the public the chance to see if membership of the EU was as good for the country as the Remain camp are currently claiming.

Raab adds: “I think the public would expect us to accept their verdict, but of course things change. I’m just realistic and I’d like people to acknowledge that whenever the Tory leadership election is, I think it’s obvious that it will be part of that.

“If the verdict is to stay in the EU, and it’s close, I think those that do want to revisit it should just pause for a few years and shelve it.”
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nidave

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Jonny said:
Up-scaling of IT is a lot easier these days, sure you might need more capacity but that is quite easily done.
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You have totally missed the point.
1. the Current IT system is not easy to update its based on outdated tech and already struggles with the number of transactions.
2. the new system is untested and already facing delays plus needs to be scaled up
3. 1000's of thousands of companies are going to have to create customs delerations for the first time placing extra administritive burden on the companies
4. All 3 of the above is going to create an adminitirive nightmatre - how good are goverment IT projects.
The fallback is to move to a paper based system with paper ledgers. Plus the UK want to collect customs fees for the EU - we are gong to struggle to do our own custom declerations never mind for the rest of the EU.

Saying upscaling is easily done shows a shocking lack of understanding how goverment IT projects work. Its going to be a massic clusterf*ck
 
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furnessvale

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nidave said:
How about the extra work 100's of thousands of companies will have, completing customs declarations which they have never had to do before - especially SME businesses. Who is going to pay for all the extra work needed? Prices will have to rise or companies will move.
"In 2015, there were around 55 million customs declarations, a figure which is set to increase to 255 million after Brexit. However, CDS was originally designed to handle 150 million declarations each year."
https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/...l_tax_plans_in_favour_of_pressing_customs_it/

"If the UK stays in the customs union, many businesses won't need to declare; in a no-deal situation they will, which would nearly double traders from 150,000 to 295,000 with no transition period."
https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/07/12/hmrc_bosses_outline_chief_concerns_for_customs_it/
Click to expand...
None of which has anything to do with the Ports Directive.

I was asked to give ONE example where remaining in the EU would be bad for the UK. I have done so. If you choose to give counter examples of where leaving the EU will be bad for the UK (in your opinion), that is your perogative.
 
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