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Economic Case for the Far North Line

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47802

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FelixtheCat said:
That would be a single class 158 unit. It really won't cost that much money.
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Really so what's the actual cost? I presume you've fully costed out the extra cost of the 158 plus Crew costs etc, against the projected extra revenue it would bring in and the actual extra subsidy required, and that the subsidy would be better spent on this as opposed to something else?
 
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Esker-pades

Esker-pades

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47802 said:
You may think so but in terms of additional cost to benefit it may not be.
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Benefit: More passengers. Wick has declined from over 25k in 2010 down to 16, due to longer journey times and a less reliable service. Not to mention the additional passengers on top of that who would use the train if it was more competitive with the road journey time. An additional unit would also be able to be used between Georgemas-Wick shuttles. Thurso-Halkirk-Wick is a useful link, one that would attract passengers.

Cost: An additional 158 unit with crew.
 
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47802

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FelixtheCat said:
Benefit: More passengers. Wick has declined from over 25k in 2010 down to 16, due to longer journey times and a less reliable service. Not to mention the additional passengers on top of that who would use the train if it was more competitive with the road journey time. An additional unit would also be able to be used between Georgemas-Wick shuttles. Thurso-Halkirk-Wick is a useful link, one that would attract passengers.

Cost: An additional 158 unit with crew.
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So what that doesn't nessesarly warrant the extra expenditure, even with your plan it still takes nearly 4 hours to get to Wick by train, as opposed to 3 hours by Bus and 2.5 hours by Car, for a Town with a population of about 7000. The town nearest to where live has a bigger population, doesn't even have a station but we seem to manage.

The bottom line is the top end of the route cannot compete with the journey time of Road transport, without massive infrastructure improvements which likely do not have sufficient cost benefit, so you either close it or maintain it at minimum cost possible and expect it will be the latter for at least the medium term.
 
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Bletchleyite

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InOban said:
A viable public transport service depends on frequency as much as speed. The bus also stops at the supermarket in each town, the hospital in each town, the technical college, etc. And remember that every Scot 60+ travels free.
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There is scope to extend that to rail on this kind of line, it was done on the Conwy Valley, much to the whines of the owner of the cowboy bus company involved which has now folded.
 
yorksrob

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47802 said:
So what that doesn't nessesarly warrant the extra expenditure, even with your plan it still takes nearly 4 hours to get to Wick by train, as opposed to 3 hours by Bus and 2.5 hours by Car, for a Town with a population of about 7000. The town nearest to where live has a bigger population, doesn't even have a station but we seem to manage.

The bottom line is the top end of the route cannot compete with the journey time of Road transport, without massive infrastructure improvements which likely do not have sufficient cost benefit, so you either close it or maintain it at minimum cost possible and expect it will be the latter for at least the medium term.
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The problem is that they haven't been maintaining the service in terms of reliability, which has led to a loss of passengers. Maintaining a steady state doesn't mean just starving the route of money.
 
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FelixtheCat said:
That would be a single class 158 unit. It really won't cost that much money.
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Between £400 and £500k per annum for a 158 , 2 sets of crews (+ spare cover) , fuel , track and station access , cleaning and maintenance (presumably cycled via Inverness once a week or so) ......

Rough estimate of course.
 
Esker-pades

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ChiefPlanner said:
Between £400 and £500k per annum for a 158 , 2 sets of crews (+ spare cover) , fuel , track and station access , cleaning and maintenance (presumably cycled via Inverness once a week or so) ......

Rough estimate of course.
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Given that 2 158s are already stabled at Wick overnight, one can just switch 158s around so that one unit isn't stuck there for more than a day.
 
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FelixtheCat said:
Given that 2 158s are already stabled at Wick overnight, one can just switch 158s around so that one unit isn't stuck there for more than a day.
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They would obviously inter work to balance the mileage and fuel requirements out ...

£6.80 a single - so you would need a few paying passengers (or subsidy)
 
Esker-pades

Esker-pades

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ChiefPlanner said:
They would obviously inter work to balance the mileage and fuel requirements out ...

£6.80 a single - so you would need a few paying passengers (or subsidy)
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That's ~73,500 journeys per year if we work to your £500k a year figure.
Those 73,500 would be any station to Wick and also local journeys to Thurso and Halkirk. The conservative estimates for any station to Wick (minus any journeys from Thurso and Halkirk) would be 30,000. I have absolutely no idea what the local journey numbers would add up to.
 
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FelixtheCat said:
That's ~73,500 journeys per year if we work to your £500k a year figure.
Those 73,500 would be any station to Wick and also local journeys to Thurso and Halkirk. The conservative estimates for any station to Wick (minus any journeys from Thurso and Halkirk) would be 30,000. I have absolutely no idea what the local journey numbers would add up to.
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If you believe passenger flow modelling , then an answer / estimate can be got.

No service will appear , anywhere, without proper origin and destination flow data ,and a supporting business case which will investigate economic and non economic benefits. It is what transport professionals and planners do.
 
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AndrewE

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ChiefPlanner said:
They would obviously inter work to balance the mileage and fuel requirements out ...

£6.80 a single - so you would need a few paying passengers
Click to expand...
that's not an outrageous amount for a reasonable quality journey
(or subsidy)
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...fair enough, that's what public transport does very well - if it hasn't been split up into tiny bits so that someone can try to make (and keep) the profit on a small proportion of routes or even journeys, leaving cash-strapped councils to pay for the others that they recognise are really needed.
 
DynamicSpirit

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47802 said:
even with your plan it still takes nearly 4 hours to get to Wick by train, as opposed to 3 hours by Bus and 2.5 hours by Car, for a Town with a population of about 7000. The town nearest to where live has a bigger population, doesn't even have a station but we seem to manage.
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As one of the people who suggested a shuttle to speed journey times, perhaps I should clarify that I suggested it as part of a raft of measures to get the Wick-Inverness journey time down below 3 hours. By itself, I wouldn't regard it as top priority - that would seem to be the Lentran loop, probably followed by the Dornoch link, both of which would benefit many more people.

But since several flaws with the idea have emerged from this discussion. Thinking along a different tack... Suppose the Halkirk chord was built and Georgemas Junction closed. How much time would that knock off the Wick journey times? (That would have the advantage of reducing Thurso-Inverness times too, something that a shuttle wouldn't achieve).

Looking at the current timetable, for journeys to Wick, the 29 minutes delay due to going via Thurso comprises:
  • 4 minutes waiting a Georgemas Junction
  • 10 minutes to Thurso
  • 3 minutes waiting at Thurso
  • 10 minutes to Georgemas Junction
  • 2 minutes waiting at Georgemas junction (why???? - there's no reverse this time)
So by not waiting/reversing at Georgemas, you immediately lose 6 minutes of waiting (minus 30 seconds of waiting at Halkirk). Also, Georgemas to Thurso is just over 6 miles. and 10 minutes seems a long time for that distance. Could you knock a few minutes off that in both directions with linespeed improvements? Plus saving a few minutes by not having to slow/down speed up for Georgemas because Thurso-Wick becomes non-stop.

How much time could you realistically save? If you could save 6-8 minutes between Inverness and Thurso, and another 6-8 minutes between Thurso and Wick, I'm guessing that would be very significant.
 
Esker-pades

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najaB said:
The train has to be at a stand to release the Thurso token and receive the Wick token.
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Possibly a stupid question, but why is there not such a long wait at all passing loops? (Even the ones where one passes a train, the 2nd arrival has only a 1 minute wait most of the time.) Also, they time 10 minutes Thurso back to Georgemas, which is 1 extra than the opposite direction. That really means the dwell is 3 minutes.
 
najaB

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FelixtheCat said:
Possibly a stupid question, but why is there not such a long wait at all passing loops? (Even the ones where one passes a train, the 2nd arrival has only a 1 minute wait most of the time.) Also, they time 10 minutes Thurso back to Georgemas, which is 1 extra than the opposite direction. That really means the dwell is 3 minutes.
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I'm not 100% sure but, at a guess, it's because with a passing loop the first train to get to the loop can release its token before the second one gets there, whereas at Georgemas it's the same train so it takes twice as long.
 
Esker-pades

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najaB said:
I'm not 100% sure but, at a guess, it's because with a passing loop the first train to get to the loop can release its token before the second one gets there, whereas at Georgemas it's the same train.
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That's sounds reasonable.

Perhaps there should be long tokens from Thurso to Wick and vice-versa. Long tokens already exist so that trains don't always have to stop at Clunes or Fodderty or Evanton.
 
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DynamicSpirit said:
As one of the people who suggested a shuttle to speed journey times, perhaps I should clarify that I suggested it as part of a raft of measures to get the Wick-Inverness journey time down below 3 hours. By itself, I wouldn't regard it as top priority - that would seem to be the Lentran loop, probably followed by the Dornoch link, both of which would benefit many more people.

But since several flaws with the idea have emerged from this discussion. Thinking along a different tack... Suppose the Halkirk chord was built and Georgemas Junction closed. How much time would that knock off the Wick journey times? (That would have the advantage of reducing Thurso-Inverness times too, something that a shuttle wouldn't achieve).

Looking at the current timetable, for journeys to Wick, the 29 minutes delay due to going via Thurso comprises:
  • 4 minutes waiting a Georgemas Junction
  • 10 minutes to Thurso
  • 3 minutes waiting at Thurso
  • 10 minutes to Georgemas Junction
  • 2 minutes waiting at Georgemas junction (why???? - there's no reverse this time)
So by not waiting/reversing at Georgemas, you immediately lose 6 minutes of waiting (minus 30 seconds of waiting at Halkirk). Also, Georgemas to Thurso is just over 6 miles. and 10 minutes seems a long time for that distance. Could you knock a few minutes off that in both directions with linespeed improvements? Plus saving a few minutes by not having to slow/down speed up for Georgemas because Thurso-Wick becomes non-stop.

How much time could you realistically save? If you could save 6-8 minutes between Inverness and Thurso, and another 6-8 minutes between Thurso and Wick, I'm guessing that would be very significant.
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Suspect the business case for this would be much better than for a shuttle service. Throw in closing Scotscalder and a rationalisation of level crossings (I seem to remember there are about 10 accommodation crossings between Georgemas and Thurso) and I'm sure a decent time saving could be created.

Ultimately Wick - Inverness is never going to be competitive on journey time with the Bus so Train has to compete on quality although time will still be important. With that sort of improvement combined with Lentran loop, Inverness - Dingwall resignalling, a new loop at Kinbrace, station closure at Kildonan and some more level crossing closures and line speed improvements and you have a reasonable 10 year plan for the Far North Line.
 
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Altnabreac

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Bletchleyite said:
Do I detect a bit of rivalry from your forum name? :D
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Hehehe.

More that if you are reopening Halkirk station and building a new curve at Georgemas then I think you need to justify the overall scheme in terms of reducing maintenance costs, increasing local line speeds and reducing dwell times by closing both Scotscalder and Georgemas Junction. Halkirk would be a much more usefully positioned station than either of Scotscalder or Georgemas anyway.

Closing Altnabreac is a separate business case. I'd obviously be sad to see it go but ultimately I can see that it might be justified to close Altnabreac, Kildonan and Culrain as well as Scotscalder and Georgemas Junction. Given the failure to close Breich it seems unlikely that anyone would be quite that bold though.
 
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Altnabreac said:
Hehehe.

More that if you are reopening Halkirk station and building a new curve at Georgemas then I think you need to justify the overall scheme in terms of reducing maintenance costs, increasing local line speeds and reducing dwell times by closing both Scotscalder and Georgemas Junction. Halkirk would be a much more usefully positioned station than either of Scotscalder or Georgemas anyway.

Closing Altnabreac is a separate business case. I'd obviously be sad to see it go but ultimately I can see that it might be justified to close Altnabreac, Kildonan and Culrain as well as Scotscalder and Georgemas Junction. Given the failure to close Breich it seems unlikely that anyone would be quite that bold though.
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Yes. If a new Halkirk station is opened (which it really should be) then at least one of Scotscalder and Georgemas, possibly both. I think Georgemas would be the most likely, given that it is literally only there for the junction.
 
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Just a personal viewpoint. Following the discussion between the relative benefits of travelling 3 hours by bus between Inverness & Wick, and the alternative of 4 hours by train. To me there is no contest, I would choose the train every time. Much more comfortable, able to use the toilet while travelling, plus the scenery is much better. Much more comfort on the train, the ability to get up and stretch ones legs, potential wifi. Even at an hour longer journey time, give me the train every time.
 
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lancastrian said:
Just a personal viewpoint. Following the discussion between the relative benefits of travelling 3 hours by bus between Inverness & Wick, and the alternative of 4 hours by train. To me there is no contest, I would choose the train every time. Much more comfortable, able to use the toilet while travelling, plus the scenery is much better. Much more comfort on the train, the ability to get up and stretch ones legs, potential wifi. Even at an hour longer journey time, give me the train every time.
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Indeed there are people like you which is why Wick is not down to zero passengers despite being a slower route by train.

Broadly there are probably five different types of people travelling from Wick:
  • Train based tourists who are there because it is the end of the train line and because the train journey is part of the experience. Speed improvements will not really grow this group.
  • Cost conscious Scottish pensioners who can travel free on the bus. Speed based improvements will not grow this group even if the journey time becomes less than the bus. A change to the concession card arrangement could grow ridership but wouldn't grow revenue and indeed would probably harm revenue.
  • Reliability focused, cost neutral travellers. Especially those in Caithness attending business / hospital appointments in Inverness. Cost and Speed are less important to these travellers than mode reliability. Anecdotally lots of these travellers used to get the train but now often prefer to drive as perceived unreliability of the service has increased. Speed improvements are less important to this group than things like Lentran Loop / Kinbrace loop / resignalling etc which partially increase speed but mainly reduce service disruption
  • Speed conscious, mode neutral travellers. Speed based improvements will only grow this group if the speed is significantly improved from Wick. As Thurso is more marginal for Bus vs Train, improvements that decrease journey time from Thurso are more likely to increase revenue from this group. Georgemas Chord basically will do a better job than a Wick shuttle.
  • Finally there are those who slightly prefer the train but not at a significant time penalty versus the bus. They will get the bus to save an hour but might get the train if the time penalty were more like 30 minutes. This is the only group whose ridership would be increased by a Wick shuttle on its own. Given the suggested £500,000 pa cost of a Wick Shuttle and the relatively small number of people likely to be in this group it seems unlikely to me that it would generate any sort of decent business case.
 
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