Companies That You Expect to Disappear Soon

Abpj17 · 30 Jul 2018

KFC has a niche which makes it pretty resilient even post Chickengate

Five Guys opened a store in Luton. Let that sink it. I'm sceptical about the quality of any market research that led to that. It's almost always empty. The Toby Carvery it replaced was usually busy.

And I prefer brioche buns - never been a fan of sesame seeds. (And this was more it was upmarket and fashionable - picked up the taste in France twenty years ago)

RailUK Forums

AlterEgo · 30 Jul 2018

Abpj17 said:
Five Guys opened a store in Luton. Let that sink it. I'm sceptical about the quality of any market research that led to that.

For a start, a quick look at Five Guys' FAQ suggests their meat isn't halal. Good luck making a profit on that in Luton, where households don't have a great deal of disposable income.

Bromley boy · 30 Jul 2018

Abpj17 said:
Five Guys opened a store in Luton.

I don’t “get” five guys.

My first (and last) experience was that it was like being in a McDonalds, albeit a marginally better burger, priced around three times what it was worth (I paid around £18 for a burger, fries and bottle of beer).

I’d prefer Meat Liquor or Byron any day of the week, espescially at those prices.

jon0844 · 30 Jul 2018

Abpj17 said:
KFC has a niche which makes it pretty resilient even post Chickengate

Five Guys opened a store in Luton. Let that sink it. I'm sceptical about the quality of any market research that led to that. It's almost always empty. The Toby Carvery it replaced was usually busy.

And I prefer brioche buns - never been a fan of sesame seeds. (And this was more it was upmarket and fashionable - picked up the taste in France twenty years ago)

Best option would be to let people choose the bun. You can 'configure' just about everything else. I find brioche buns too sweet, but that doesn't mean I hate them and it can work with some burgers (depending on the other ingredients and/or sauce) - but a choice would be great.

jon0844 · 30 Jul 2018

AlterEgo said:
For a start, a quick look at Five Guys' FAQ suggests their meat isn't halal. Good luck making a profit on that in Luton, where households don't have a great deal of disposable income.

Could it not vary by location? I went to a Subway near Wembley and wondered why there was no bacon in my breakfast sub (it was turkey bacon) and then realised. I wasn't shocked when I went to the one at Westfield Stratford. If it can't vary then I agree the Luton one is likely doomed.

AlterEgo · 31 Jul 2018

jon0844 said:
Could it not vary by location? I went to a Subway near Wembley and wondered why there was no bacon in my breakfast sub (it was turkey bacon) and then realised. I wasn't shocked when I went to the one at Westfield Stratford. If it can't vary then I agree the Luton one is likely doomed.

Their FAQ on their site implies the answer is just “no, we don’t use halal meat”. I assume if it varies by location they’d say.

Steddenm · 31 Jul 2018

CEX work because people want new tech all the time and yes, albeit they can be a bit more expensive than say EBay, they do provide a guarantee on their products and do check that the phone/tablet hasn't been reported lost of stolen.

A store in Cellbridge in the Republic of Ireland only sell big-ticket items and does reasonably well.

CEX is a franchise and it's not cheap to buy one. Remember you need to buy all the stock too and 15 or so iPhone Xs and the thousands of games will set you back a bit.

The companies I see going in the next 12 months:

Select Service Partners (catering and retail on stations/airports)
Sussex Stationers
Fultons Foods/Jack Fultons (discount frozen food)
Hotel Chocolate
Thorntons Retail
Dunelm
Cash Generator/Cash Converters

tbtc · 31 Jul 2018

Steddenm said:
CEX work because people want new tech all the time and yes, albeit they can be a bit more expensive than say EBay, they do provide a guarantee on their products and do check that the phone/tablet hasn't been reported lost of stolen.

A store in Cellbridge in the Republic of Ireland only sell big-ticket items and does reasonably well.

CEX is a franchise and it's not cheap to buy one. Remember you need to buy all the stock too and 15 or so iPhone Xs and the thousands of games will set you back a bit.

The companies I see going in the next 12 months:

Select Service Partners (catering and retail on stations/airports)

Sussex Stationers

Fultons Foods/Jack Fultons (discount frozen food)

Hotel Chocolate

Thorntons Retail

Dunelm

Cash Generator/Cash Converters

Given the state of the economy nowadays, I can't see Fultons dissipating - they serve a niche and are pretty flexible at getting discounted products on the shelves at short notice - compared to fixed price retailers (e.g. Poundland). There's been a boom in the "discount" sector since Woolies went bust (which makes you realise how badly Woolworths were run, when you see how many other companies (Wilko, B&M, Home Bargains etc) who sell the same brand/ mix of things. But Fultons and Heron seem to know their market - they can hoover up "short life" products and bung them out at two/ four/ six for a quid fairly quickly. Plus, a lot of their target market can't afford to do weekly shops/ online delivery, so will keep coming back every day or two to fill a basket.

Dunelm, on the other hand... a lot of home owners can't afford much nowadays and an increasing number of people live in rented accommodation (where landlords paint everything in the blandest magnolia and with fairly austere furniture), so I don't know how much of a market their is for all of the home furnishing places (Dunelm included) that sell "luxuries" - Homebase have well documented problems - there seem to be lots of pretty quiet carpet/ tiling shops around. IKEA's business model and the functional store layout means they should be okay but the likes of Dunelm are relying on people regularly redecorating (or spending lots of money on fancy cushions), which really needs a more buoyant economy (if people struggle to put bread on the table they won't be painting the spare room - they probably can't afford a place with a spare room any more).

That said, there's often still a market for posh treats - which is why places like Lush/ Paperchase seem to be doing okay - so maybe Thorntons/ Hotel Chocolat can find a role in selling people a little slice of "luxury" (compared to the cost of new carpets or whatever).

jon0844 · 31 Jul 2018

There are certainly people who have plenty of disposable income, so companies going after these people will likely be okay - but may have to shut some branches and reduce their overall estate.

ooo · 31 Jul 2018

Steddenm said:
Select Service Partners (catering and retail on stations/airports)

Why would they be struggling?

NorthernSpirit · 31 Jul 2018

tbtc said:
Given the state of the economy nowadays, I can't see Fultons dissipating - they serve a niche and are pretty flexible at getting discounted products on the shelves at short notice - compared to fixed price retailers (e.g. Poundland). There's been a boom in the "discount" sector since Woolies went bust (which makes you realise how badly Woolworths were run, when you see how many other companies (Wilko, B&M, Home Bargains etc) who sell the same brand/ mix of things. But Fultons and Heron seem to know their market - they can hoover up "short life" products and bung them out at two/ four/ six for a quid fairly quickly. Plus, a lot of their target market can't afford to do weekly shops/ online delivery, so will keep coming back every day or two to fill a basket.

Dunelm, on the other hand... a lot of home owners can't afford much nowadays and an increasing number of people live in rented accommodation (where landlords paint everything in the blandest magnolia and with fairly austere furniture), so I don't know how much of a market their is for all of the home furnishing places (Dunelm included) that sell "luxuries" - Homebase have well documented problems - there seem to be lots of pretty quiet carpet/ tiling shops around. IKEA's business model and the functional store layout means they should be okay but the likes of Dunelm are relying on people regularly redecorating (or spending lots of money on fancy cushions), which really needs a more buoyant economy (if people struggle to put bread on the table they won't be painting the spare room - they probably can't afford a place with a spare room any more).

I can imagine seeing both Fultons and Heron merging in the next five years, as both more or less do the same thing. There was a Heron store in Wakefield which became a Fultons the interior and shop furnishings remained the same.

DarloRich · 31 Jul 2018

NorthernSpirit said:
I can imagine seeing both Fultons and Heron merging in the next five years, as both more or less do the same thing. There was a Heron store in Wakefield which became a Fultons the interior and shop furnishings remained the same.

i thought they WERE the same company! ( Heron is B&M owned I find)

NorthernSpirit · 31 Jul 2018

DarloRich said:
i thought they WERE the same company! ( Heron is B&M owned I find)

Fultons is HQ'd in Darton the last time I checked and Heron is HQ'd somewhere near Hull, I could be wrong though.

Crossover · 31 Jul 2018

Steddenm said:
Hotel Chocolate

Thorntons Retail

I think Hotel Chocolat serves a niche that Thorntons perhaps used to and I've not heard of them having any issues. Thorntons on the other hand has become the new Dairy Milk in many cases and is stocked in virtually every supermarket etc. so I could see their own retail shops taking a dive (or maybe becoming areas within other stores - I forget the term for them!)

FQTV · 31 Jul 2018

Steddenm said:
The companies I see going in the next 12 months:

Dunelm

tbtc said:
Dunelm, on the other hand...

£1bn turnover, almost £100m gross profit, increasing earnings per share and dividends, little freehold exposure, increasing like for like sales performance and almost 20% online sales. Owner of Fogarty, Dorma and Kiddicare brands. Opaque supplier to Achica.com (now Brand Alley). The main challenge at the moment is their acquisition of Worldstores.com which they bought out of administration for £1 and is taking some time to rationalise and integrate which is putting pressure on margin.

9,000 employees.

DarloRich · 31 Jul 2018

NorthernSpirit said:
Fultons is HQ'd in Darton the last time I checked and Heron is HQ'd somewhere near Hull, I could be wrong though.

you are right. I wrongly assumed they were part of the same firm.

Steddenm said:
CEX work because people want new tech all the time and yes, albeit they can be a bit more expensive than say EBay, they do provide a guarantee on their products and do check that the phone/tablet hasn't been reported lost of stolen.

A store in Cellbridge in the Republic of Ireland only sell big-ticket items and does reasonably well.

CEX is a franchise and it's not cheap to buy one. Remember you need to buy all the stock too and 15 or so iPhone Xs and the thousands of games will set you back a bit.

The companies I see going in the next 12 months:

Select Service Partners (catering and retail on stations/airports)

Dunelm

Cash Generator/Cash Converters

SSP have captive markets. They will be fine. Diunlem are a strong trader. Cash Convertors are pawn brokers. When did a porn broker ever go bust? Any hard times ahead will play into their hands

Iskra · 31 Jul 2018

Bromley boy said:
I don’t “get” five guys.

My first (and last) experience was that it was like being in a McDonalds, albeit a marginally better burger, priced around three times what it was worth (I paid around £18 for a burger, fries and bottle of beer).

I’d prefer Meat Liquor or Byron any day of the week, espescially at those prices.

Same. Although you did better than me. I walked in, looked at the menu, the prices, the surroundings and the food people were eating and then promptly walked back out again. The second time I was late meeting friends who had already ordered, their food didn't entice me to buy anything either.

yorksrob said:
Has it ? What have they got instead ?

It's some new Twinings tea in a posher-looking silky pyramid tea bag. I have absolutely no idea what it tastes like though as I've never had a cup of tea in my life, and can't see that changing soon!

Bletchleyite · 31 Jul 2018

tbtc said:
Dunelm, on the other hand... a lot of home owners can't afford much nowadays and an increasing number of people live in rented accommodation (where landlords paint everything in the blandest magnolia and with fairly austere furniture), so I don't know how much of a market their is for all of the home furnishing places (Dunelm included) that sell "luxuries"

Potentially a massive market. Dunelm's main market isn't wallpaper and paint, it's things like fabrics, cushions, soft furnishings and similar - the kind of thing you can add to a magnolia[1] rental flat to make it look homely at a low price. That demand will only grow.

[1] Vile, vile colour. I'd rather white, though there are some lovely cream colours out there that go very well with a bold feature wall.

Bletchleyite · 31 Jul 2018

yorksrob said:
I hope you told him to get rid of that Twinings 'Everyday' rubbish. Their English Breakfast tea would be a suitable substitute.

I actually quite like it (got some at home, it's nice and strong), though I also like the English Breakfast so I don't mind either way.

Bletchleyite · 31 Jul 2018

jon0844 said:
?

I said Five Guys was a continuation on the up market burger restaurant 'fad', so maybe you should read back through the thread. Someone else has already reported Byron reducing its estate, and I think more will follow.

The thing is it isn't upmarket in a "nice sit down restaurant, proper plate" sense. I'd rather GBK, though that isn't what it was.

Bletchleyite · 31 Jul 2018

whhistle said:
Five Guys just approach it better by having highly customisable burgers (like MCD do now on their touch screens), but Five Guys throw fries at you like there's no tomorrow

At a price where you could buy 3 large fries at Maccies and get more, though I'll give you that they are quite nice. And they do that stupid thing of giving you a small cup of them then throwing more in the bag that end up in the way of everything, which is meant to look generous but isn't.

I'm a massive fan of the Maccies touch screens and new "JIT" service process as it means special orders are no longer a faff (and they're way quicker than Five Guys, whose service is really, really slow). Though I don't like the way they've now stopped you having a sausage and egg McMuffin with as many patties in it as you like

Bletchleyite · 31 Jul 2018

Steddenm said:
Select Service Partners (catering and retail on stations/airports)

SSP is massively profitable (that they can give out 10% discount all the time to Bite Card holders shows how much they are raking in). Why do you think they would be vulnerable?

In austerity times pawnbrokers do well, which is why I doubt you're right about Cash Converters etc either. They don't show the traditional sign, but they are a pawnbroker.

yorksrob · 31 Jul 2018

It's some new Twinings tea in a posher-looking silky pyramid tea bag. I have absolutely no idea what it tastes like though as I've never had a cup of tea in my life, and can't see that changing soon!

I'll keep an open mind until I try it.

sk688 · 1 Aug 2018

Can't see House of Fraser staying for much longer, nor Debenhams

Meanwhile in America , there are firms like MoviePass which are literally borrowing money to make it till the weekend

Mag_seven · 1 Aug 2018

sk688 said:
Can't see House of Fraser staying for much longer, nor Debenhams

Is it the end of the traditional department store as we know it? I remember as a kid in the seventies always being excited at the prospect of a trip to a big city centre department store.

yorksrob · 2 Aug 2018

Bletchleyite said:
SSP is massively profitable (that they can give out 10% discount all the time to Bite Card holders shows how much they are raking in). Why do you think they would be vulnerable?
.

They're also massively clueless about their target markets. Charging three pounds for a sausage roll in Barrow in Furness, or five pounds for a pint of beer in Manchester Victoria is never going to attract much custom.

bnm · 2 Aug 2018

sk688 said:
Can't see House of Fraser staying for much longer, nor Debenhams

They will likely survive into the medium term if they merge, as is being reported.

sk688 · 2 Aug 2018

Mag_seven said:
Is it the end of the traditional department store as we know it? I remember as a kid in the seventies always being excited at the prospect of a trip to a big city centre department store.

I don't think so , as many of the Oxford Street department stores are doing just fine , and John Lewis seems to be doing pretty well

Bletchleyite · 2 Aug 2018

yorksrob said:
They're also massively clueless about their target markets. Charging three pounds for a sausage roll in Barrow in Furness, or five pounds for a pint of beer in Manchester Victoria is never going to attract much custom.

It doesn't matter how much custom they attract in itself, it matters if they maximise profits. Virgin Trains' outrageous Anytime fares do not maximise custom, but they do strongly believe they maximise income, which is what they are aiming to do.

Dai Corner · 2 Aug 2018

sk688 said:
I don't think so , as many of the Oxford Street department stores are doing just fine , and John Lewis seems to be doing pretty well

John Lewis's profits fell 77%
https://www.ft.com/content/67c57258-22b5-11e8-9a70-08f715791301

Companies That You Expect to Disappear Soon

Member

RailUK Forums

Veteran Member

Established Member

Veteran Member

Veteran Member

Veteran Member

Member

Veteran Member

Veteran Member

Member

Established Member

Veteran Member

Established Member

Established Member

Member

Veteran Member

Established Member

Veteran Member

Veteran Member

Veteran Member

Veteran Member

Veteran Member

Veteran Member

Member

Forum Staff

Veteran Member

Established Member

Member

Veteran Member

Established Member