EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

nidave · 22 Sep 2018

yorksrob said:
Was it just the DUP who "put NI under direct rule from Westminster" ? From my limited knowledge, wasn't this a result of all parties not being able to agree a power sharing agreement due to the DUP leader not resigning over a scandal involving renewable energy ?

Of course I understand that in a referendum on whether NI citizens would rather a special relationship between the UK or the EU, having the most votes of any party doesn't necessarily mean that a majority would vote their way.

Do we think another party would get more votes though in the event of an election though.

It's all about a petition of concern. Which has been misused by the dub but also the other parties to block laws and things each don't agree on. The latest cause is the RHI scandl which Arlene was heavily involved in. Mla's are corrupt to the bone. They all are more interested in personal power than what's best for n. Ireland

If there was a non election non party vote you would be supprised at what the population really think.

The demographics of n. Ireland are changing its percentage of people who identify as catholic is rising and the dup only have the first minister by a small amount.

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nidave · 22 Sep 2018

AlterEgo said:
In what way does the GFA state that? It makes no reference at all to the porousness or otherwise of the border, nor how it will be enforced. The GFA is principally a rights-based document and also sets out how the UK, Ireland and Northern Ireland treat each other at a political level.

Have you even looked at the GFA?? ?
There are lots and lots and lots of mentions of doing things on a cross border basis.

Let me spell it out. If the UK leaves the eu and takes on different rules this can't happen therefore the agreement is null and void.

pemma · 22 Sep 2018

According to Robert Peston the MPs who threatened to resign over the Chequer's proposal are Esther McVey, Andrea Leadsome and Penny Mordaunt. Given that information Theresa May and the EU really need to make it work.

Senex · 22 Sep 2018

muddythefish said:
"I have nothing to offer except bluster, humiliation, diminishment and pauperization...."

- Theresa May. 21st September 2018

May scraped the populist barrel yet again to cover the holes in her own ability and the Conservative party which has now delivered 2 disastrous and embarrassing prime ministers in a row.

There is little time left and, frankly, there are only two ways to deal with this fiasco:

1. A general election with a party actively advocating another referendum

2. Hard Brexit - be done with it, bite the bullet, write-off a good decade and pray something falls out of the sky (pigs or elephants).

To think we once ruled oceans and were looked upon as a paradigm of calm, order and sensibility. What a shambles

I agree with what you say about May. Her and her ministers' conduct through the summer in trying to go behind the back of the EU that she is supposed to be negotiating with and break their unity by talking to individual national politicians has been pretty bad and certainly gives her no standing for trying to talk now about respect for Britain.
But I'm not sure about your two ways. "A general election with a party actively advocating another referendum" would only work if that party were the Labour Party, as under FPTP that is the only party other than the Tories that has any hope of forming a government, and the Labour leadership (with Corbyn still stuck in the left-wing student politics of the 1960s) is still a very long way from advocating a referendum. And much as I'd half like a really chaotic hard Brexit to teach the Tory party a lesson (and perhaps even smash it so completely that it would be out of the equation for years), I wouldn't wish that on Scotland, Northern Ireland, and the English cities that voted to Remain.

yorksrob · 22 Sep 2018

nidave said:
It's all about a petition of concern. Which has been misused by the dub but also the other parties to block laws and things each don't agree on. The latest cause is the RHI scandl which Arlene was heavily involved in. Mla's are corrupt to the bone. They all are more interested in personal power than what's best for n. Ireland

If there was a non election non party vote you would be supprised at what the population really think.

The demographics of n. Ireland are changing its percentage of people who identify as catholic is rising and the dup only have the first minister by a small amount.

Well, the 2014 referendum in Scotland was a close run thing, so constitutional change in NI isn't far fetched.

Senex · 22 Sep 2018

The_Train said:
In the lead up to and in the aftermath of the referendum I'd stated a concern about people believing that we are a bigger nation and more important to others than is actually the truth. The belief that we are GREAT Britain and therefore the EU would bow to our every need and the rest of the world would rush to agree trade deals with us was scary then and is even scarier now (considering this belief remains even though we are seeing the actual results now).

Rule Britannia is now just a song played on the last night of the proms as opposed to a sign of our dominance over any empire. The actual reality of where we stand in the grand scheme of things is there for all to see

Exactly! Fun and nostalgia are fine for the Last Night of the Proms, and there was much in the imperial days to be proud of. But to believe that those songs have any relevance to the United Kingdom of today shews an unwillingness to live in and come to terms with the modern world.

AlterEgo · 22 Sep 2018

nidave said:
Have you even looked at the GFA?? ?
There are lots and lots and lots of mentions of doing things on a cross border basis.

Let me spell it out. If the UK leaves the eu and takes on different rules this can't happen therefore the agreement is null and void.

Things happening on a “cross border basis” include the North-South Ministerial Council, cooperation on security and policing, and a few other areas but only on a “best endeavours” basis. There are no specific deliverables or targets outlined in the Agreement.

As I’ll repeat, the GFA makes no mention of the porousness or otherwise of the border, nor how it should be enforced. You were responding to a point made by another poster about the free movement of goods or people across a hard or soft border.

Could you let me know where in the GFA, or the relevant Command Paper 3883, the enforcement of the border and its porousness was agreed?

The most relevant part of the Agreement is:

1. (1) It is hereby declared that Northern Ireland in its entirety remains part of the United Kingdom and shall not cease to be so without the consent of a majority of the people of Northern Ireland voting in a poll held for the purposes of this section in accordance with Schedule 1.

Northern Ireland is part of the United Kingdom - the people of Northern Ireland voted overwhelmingly to accept the Agreement and this status - and therefore Brexit is binding whether you or I like it or not.

trash80 · 22 Sep 2018

jcollins said:
According to Robert Peston the MPs who threatened to resign over the Chequer's proposal are Esther McVey, Andrea Leadsome and Penny Mordaunt. Given that information Theresa May and the EU really need to make it work.

Somehow the phrase "and nothing of value was lost" springs to mind

nidave · 22 Sep 2018

AlterEgo said:
Things happening on a “cross border basis” include the North-South Ministerial Council, cooperation on security and policing, and a few other areas but only on a “best endeavours” basis. There are no specific deliverables or targets outlined in the Agreement.

As I’ll repeat, the GFA makes no mention of the porousness or otherwise of the border, nor how it should be enforced. You were responding to a point made by another poster about the free movement of goods or people across a hard or soft border.

Could you let me know where in the GFA, or the relevant Command Paper 3883, the enforcement of the border and its porousness was agreed?

The most relevant part of the Agreement is:

Northern Ireland is part of the United Kingdom - the people of Northern Ireland voted overwhelmingly to accept the Agreement and this status - and therefore Brexit is binding whether you or I like it or not.

Rubbish. Brexit will destroy the GFA.
Things like electricity generation comes from the ROI.

There are so many interdepediies between n. Ireland and ROI. (bit like the UK and eu). The biggest difference is the GFA is dependent on these. This will void the GFA.

Far smarter people than you or I all say it's so. Your insane belief they it's not an issue is insulting to the people of n. Ireland.

eotw · 22 Sep 2018

AlterEgo said:
Things happening on a “cross border basis” include the North-South Ministerial Council, cooperation on security and policing, and a few other areas but only on a “best endeavours” basis. There are no specific deliverables or targets outlined in the Agreement.

As I’ll repeat, the GFA makes no mention of the porousness or otherwise of the border, nor how it should be enforced. You were responding to a point made by another poster about the free movement of goods or people across a hard or soft border.

As you say GFA has nothing specific to say about the border so looking back it was surprising that TM was so quick out of the blocks saying there would continue to be a friction-less border with no infrastructure.

The European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 does makes it illegal to put in place any sort of border between infrastructure

No regulations made under the Act may reduce any north-south co-operation provided for in the Belfast Agreement or create any Northern Ireland border arrangements involving physical infrastructure unless agreed between the UK and the EU.

However the ERG amendment to the Customs bill also makes any customs border between GB and NI illegal

New clause 37 (European Research Group, lead sponsor Laurence Robertson) was agreed without a vote. This would make it unlawful for the government to enter into arrangements under which Northern Ireland forms part of a separate customs territory to Great Britain.

Hence we arrive at the Dog's Dinner which is Chequers.

I have no idea how how we get out of this mess, until a few days ago I thought no government would be foolish enough to allow us to leave without a deal. Now I fear we will be a victim of English hubris and exceptionalism and leave with a minimalist deal.

3141 · 22 Sep 2018

Senex said:
Exactly! Fun and nostalgia are fine for the Last Night of the Proms, and there was much in the imperial days to be proud of. But to believe that those songs have any relevance to the United Kingdom of today shews an unwillingness to live in and come to terms with the modern world.

Unfortunately, that also applies to many who voted for Brexit.

Senex said:
And much as I'd half like a really chaotic hard Brexit to teach the Tory party a lesson (and perhaps even smash it so completely that it would be out of the equation for years), I wouldn't wish that on Scotland, Northern Ireland, and the English cities that voted to Remain.

That's one of the reasons why we are in this mess - there are some (I don't know how large the number might be) who voted to Leave in order to strike a blow at Cameron. Perhaps they just didn't believe Leave could ever win. I think it likely that the Tories will be out of government for a long time, even if there's a softer Brexit. They are too divided over it to be able to present an impression of competence, and when problems arise after next March, as they are bound to do whatever way we leave the EU, they will be blamed by the same electorate that voted to cause disruption by leaving.

eotw said:
I have no idea how how we get out of this mess, until a few days ago I thought no government would be foolish enough to allow us to leave without a deal. Now I fear we will be a victim of English hubris and exceptionalism and leave with a minimalist deal.

And also, perhaps, that no EU would be so foolish as to allow us to leave without a deal. But they have differing views, and everybody finds it difficult to compromise because there are so many factors that have a part in the situation. On our side, the sensible thing would be to decide not to leave and to stay in the EU on our existing terms. Another referendum would be required, and as things stand right now the question might well be "Do we Remain or do we Leave without a deal?" The Labour Party won't currently support that, because they'd prefer a General Election which they hope to win. A second referendum would be incredibly divisive, and it's easier to shy away from it for that reason than to consider how much worse things may become if we leave with no deal. Humans aren't good at putting longer-term considerations ahead of short-term ones.

dgl · 22 Sep 2018

Starting to sound a lot like the PSB song "Opportunities (let's make lots of money)".

I.e the "sewer rat" promises you the earth but it ends up all being lies.

radamfi · 22 Sep 2018

Passports effectively no longer valid for the full 10 years thanks to "no deal" preparations. Until a few days ago, if you renewed your passport early, the remaining validity got transferred to the new passport. But that is no longer the case. You can of course renew close to or after expiry to avoid the extra cost, but many countries require you to have a passport with 6 months remaining, so you have no choice but to renew early.

https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/n...hit-out-after-being-given-shorter-than-expec/

greyman42 · 22 Sep 2018

nidave said:
Thatcher (am really not a fan of hers) fought really hard to get the best for the UK and she understood that the EU was important and worthwhile. May doesn't.

What May thinks or does not think is not the point. It is her job to get us out of the EU which is what the majority voted for.

317 forever · 22 Sep 2018

EM2 said:
Seeing as the Boris thread was locked, and because the discussion that this came from was about Brexit, I'll drop it in here.
Michael Heseltine this morning described Boris Johnson as “A person who waits to see which way the crowd is running and then dashes ahead of them and says, ‘Follow me!’”

Edited to include exact quote.

He said the same thing about Tony Blair ca 1995.

317 forever · 22 Sep 2018

Howardh said:
There's a point there about party lines - how many voted against the EU simply because Cameron was a Tory MP and for remaining? At the time we read that many did just that - described as "giving the government a kicking"?? Although I wonder if there would have been the same opposite effect if Cameron had been a leaver?

Ironically, Labour voters who voted Leave voted to give future Conservative governments more power. Outside the EU, EU grants to poorer regions and protections within the workplace could be in jeopardy.

317 forever · 22 Sep 2018

Bromley boy said:
Oh no! Yorkshire is one of bits of the UK I want to retain! Maybe we should give them another vote until they get it right.

Re. Bermuda, I don’t think so, at least not in the same way as EU freedom of movement. Funnily enough I know a Brit who has lived and worked out there for several years.

At least you’d get decent weather.

We could have Leeds, Harrogate and York stay in the EU and the rest of Yorkshire leave the EU, in line with the referendum results.

317 forever · 22 Sep 2018

jcollins said:
300,000 voted for the DUP, half a million NI voters voted for other parties. I also don't think they expected the DUP to walk out on the power sharing arrangement for Stormont putting Northern Ireland under direct rule from Westminster.

Imagine if a pro-EU party had won the 2017 General Election with 37% of the votes and then said it was ignoring the EU referendum result. That's a similar situation to the one Northern Ireland is in.

One of the biggest problems with Brexit is that it a hard border in Ireland is being threatened due mainly to English & Welsh leave voters. Not only did Northern Ireland vote 56% Remain, but in border constituencies the Remain vote varied from 58% to 78%.

Revilo · 22 Sep 2018

317 forever said:
Ironically, Labour voters who voted Leave voted to give future Conservative governments more power. Outside the EU, EU grants to poorer regions and protections within the workplace could be in jeopardy.

They voted to give UK governments of whatever colour more control over UK matters. Far better than having rules dictated to us by the EU, an organisation largely unaccountable to its electorate.

trash80 · 22 Sep 2018

Is this a parody post?

AlterEgo · 22 Sep 2018

nidave said:
Rubbish. Brexit will destroy the GFA.
Things like electricity generation comes from the ROI.

There are so many interdepediies between n. Ireland and ROI. (bit like the UK and eu). The biggest difference is the GFA is dependent on these. This will void the GFA.

Far smarter people than you or I all say it's so. Your insane belief they it's not an issue is insulting to the people of n. Ireland.

I never suggested Brexit would be good for Ireland. I think it will be very bad for Ireland, north and south. Same goes for any potential hard border.

I only made the point that Brexit or the installation of a hard border is not necessarily contrary to the Good Friday Agreement. Neither is the issue of electricity generation stated in the Agreement. I think it is a lazy argument to make, for a few reasons. Firstly, I don’t think the Agreement has been taken seriously for some years by politicians. Secondly, pointing to a wad of paper (which doesn’t say what you think it says about a hard border anyway!) is a way of avoiding difficult practical discussion about the nature of the border. I therefore wish for people not to be distracted by the Agreement as I think such distraction is unhelpful and unconvincing.

I’ll ask again, as it seems to have been missed: which parts of the Agreement do you think will be “void” upon Brexit? Can you show me anywhere in the Agreement about how the UK and Ireland should be in the same customs union, for example? Apart from setting up some relevant bodies of Anglo-Irish cooperation (which, for the avoidance of doubt, will exist Brexit or no Brexit), the main functions of the Agreement are to enshrine some limited rights of the people of Northern Ireland, to get paramilitaries to exit the stage, and underline the issue of sovereignty.

The Agreement is much vaguer than a lot of people think it is, because of the circumstances of its birth and the fact it had to be approved by referendum. Brexit may be against the spirit in which the Agreement was made, but it is definitely not against it per se.

I have a substantial knowledge of constitutional politics in Northern Ireland and am very familiar with the GFA and its implementation.

AlterEgo · 22 Sep 2018

eotw said:
As you say GFA has nothing specific to say about the border so looking back it was surprising that TM was so quick out of the blocks saying there would continue to be a friction-less border with no infrastructure.

The European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 does makes it illegal to put in place any sort of border between infrastructure

Nothing etc etc authorises regulations which:

create or facilitate border arrangements between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland after exit day which feature physical infrastructure, including border posts, or checks and controls, that did not exist before exit day and are not in accordance with an agreement between the United Kingdom and the EU

The text says that you cannot have any border posts or arrangements different to exit day etc unless such arrangements are agreed between the UK and the EU. That passage actually explicitly provides *for* border infrastructure if agreed!

Revilo · 22 Sep 2018

trash80 said:
Is this a parody post?

No parody here! Just reality.

bramling · 22 Sep 2018

317 forever said:
One of the biggest problems with Brexit is that it a hard border in Ireland is being threatened due mainly to English & Welsh leave voters.

And what’s wrong with that? It’s part and parcel of being part of the United Kingdom, especially when making up only a very small proportion of it.

VauxhallandI · 22 Sep 2018

bramling said:
And what’s wrong with that? It’s part and parcel of being part of the United Kingdom, especially when making up only a very small proportion of it.

It's part and parcel of being part of the English United Kingdom

VauxhallandI · 22 Sep 2018

Revilo said:
They voted to give UK governments of whatever colour more control over UK matters. Far better than having rules dictated to us by the EU, an organisation largely unaccountable to its electorate.

We've been through those sound bites one hundred times. We don't all swallow the same stuff.

bramling · 22 Sep 2018

Johngill100 said:
It's part and parcel of being part of the English United Kingdom

Perhaps that’s because England and Wales are where most people live? Scotland and NI combined are barely the size of a major English urban area in terms of numbers.

bramling · 22 Sep 2018

3141 said:
Unfortunately, that also applies to many who voted for Brexit.

That's one of the reasons why we are in this mess - there are some (I don't know how large the number might be) who voted to Leave in order to strike a blow at Cameron. Perhaps they just didn't believe Leave could ever win. I think it likely that the Tories will be out of government for a long time, even if there's a softer Brexit. They are too divided over it to be able to present an impression of competence, and when problems arise after next March, as they are bound to do whatever way we leave the EU, they will be blamed by the same electorate that voted to cause disruption by leaving.

And also, perhaps, that no EU would be so foolish as to allow us to leave without a deal. But they have differing views, and everybody finds it difficult to compromise because there are so many factors that have a part in the situation. On our side, the sensible thing would be to decide not to leave and to stay in the EU on our existing terms. Another referendum would be required, and as things stand right now the question might well be "Do we Remain or do we Leave without a deal?" The Labour Party won't currently support that, because they'd prefer a General Election which they hope to win. A second referendum would be incredibly divisive, and it's easier to shy away from it for that reason than to consider how much worse things may become if we leave with no deal. Humans aren't good at putting longer-term considerations ahead of short-term ones.

I really find this whole notion of using Brexit as a bash at the Conservatives daft.

Yes the current government are not very competent. Labour haven’t exactly covered themselves in glory either - both before and after the referendum no one really knows what their Brexit position actually is. Perhaps this is because they are just as split as the Conservatives - their leadership seem broadly anti EU, their MPs are generally pro EU, and their electorate are generally anti EU outside London and pro EU in London. If Labour had shown a bit more backbone, instead of using Brexit as a means of bashing the opposition and cultivating a potential route for Corbyn, McDonnell, Abbott and co to achieve power, perhaps their only hope of pulling that off, then perhaps it might have been possible to build more consensus on what should be a cross-party issue. It’s pretty shameful that instead we have to rely on the DUP just to do anything. Meanwhile we have a third party who effectively don’t recognise the referendum result yet have the nerve to allude to democracy in their name!

I’m rapidly coming to the conclusion that our political system is badly broken. No wonder the Brexit process is turning into a mess with these people running the show.

eotw · 23 Sep 2018

3141 said:
That's one of the reasons why we are in this mess - there are some (I don't know how large the number might be) who voted to Leave in order to strike a blow at Cameron.

Only 2 people I know have told me they voted Leave, both also told me their reason was to give them Tories a good kicking.

dosxuk · 23 Sep 2018

Revilo said:
They voted to give UK governments of whatever colour more control over UK matters. Far better than having rules dictated to us by the EU, an organisation largely unaccountable to its electorate.

As opposed to our current UK Government who have proposed a solution so amazing it's managed to unite both leave and remain camps in their disappointment. And what can we, as individual voters do to express our discontentment with our glorius leaders?Maybe write a stern letter, or meet our MP for tea.

Our government is no more accountable in their day-to-day activities than the EU. If they want to ban spoons we have no ability to express our disconsent / confusion until they next bless us with an election. And even then, we can only do so if an alternative party actually stands on a "we'll allow you to use spoons" platform, and are in a position to win with our FPTP system. If the opposition chooses to go with a "umm, spoons are useful, but we'd prefer sporks are made complusory" platform, we just end up in the nonsense situation we are now where 60+million people are being dictated to by less than 80 members of a extreme branch of the government's party.

EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

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