Non-political - how much could a no-deal affect the railways?

DPWH said:

It's hard to see how a thread like this could be non-political.

Nobody really knows. It could be a national crisis. It might just work out without too much short-term damage. There's a herd of elephants in the room. I'm really quite scared.

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The question is about a no-deal effect on rail, presumably v. something else which we could say is being in (now). There are then 3 aspects - passenger and freight flows and rail operations themselves.

The principal potential impacts have already been described above and there is no reason to be scared. The only reason we imagine a herd of elephants in the (rail) room is that no-one is trying to convince us of why they are not there. That is not to say that nothing will change a little, but as we have indicated, it can all be envisaged, even if only a part ever comes true.

For me, the no change v no deal issues are elsewhere.

From a Scotland perspective (which was one of the constituent parts of the UK who voted to remain*, alongside Northern Ireland), I would hypothesise that Abellio may exercise their break out clause when due in the event of a no deal Brexit. Bearing in mind it has been reported in other threads that Abellio/Nederlandse Spoorwagen are or were having cashflow problems recently, and are/were being investigated in the Netherlands for fraudulent practices over the award of a franchise there.

Should if there be a second independence referendum, I can see the result being more clear cut this time, but cannot predict which way. I do not know how this would affect the sourcing of parts and various railway equipment, or if trains will be built in Scotland again.

PS I have tried my best not to be too political here.

* As a side note, there is a democratic deficit as Scotland and Northern Ireland voted remain, with concerns regarding Brexit not appearing to be listened to at Westminster. Since the 1979 General Election, Scotland have voted as follows:

1979: Mainly Labour, got Conservatives
1983: Mainly Labour, got Conservatives
1987: Mainly Labour, got Conservatives
1992: Mainly Labour, got Conservatives (only just due to a late swing during the day)
1997: Mainly Labour, got New Labour (which were not new, and were most certainly not Labour)
2001: Mainly Labour, got New Labour (which were not new, and were most certainly not Labour)
2005: Mainly Labour, got New Labour (which were not new, and were most certainly not Labour)
2010: Mainly Labour, got Conservative - Lib Dem coalition
2015: Mainly SNP with 56 out of 59 constituencies, got Conservatives
2017: Mainly SNP, got minority Conservatives with support from DUP

All of the above shows that Scotland does not get the government it has voted for. I do understand the support for Scottish independence, but I do not support the SNP's version of independence.

DPWH said:

It's hard to see how a thread like this could be non-political.

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If you know you have to order parts, replacements etc then the politics is irrelevant - what happens in the government happens; my point is - are the railways covering themselves for every eventuality now (even if the worst-case senario is avoided) or are they just hoping for the best and carrying on as normal? let's face it, you can prepare for winter, prepare for busy holidays, but right now can they prepare for the unknown?

Howardh said:

If you know you have to order parts, replacements etc then the politics is irrelevant - what happens in the government happens; my point is - are the railways covering themselves for every eventuality now (even if the worst-case senario is avoided) or are they just hoping for the best and carrying on as normal? let's face it, you can prepare for winter, prepare for busy holidays, but right now can they prepare for the unknown?

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I expect that many companies besides those in rail have been looking at what might happen and making some preparations. The difficulties are estimating whether the potential problems will actually arise, how serious they may turn out to be and for how long they may continue. Then they have to assess how serious the impact on their business of each potential problem might be. In most cases we don't know what preparations any company is making.

Making preparations will involve some additional expense, at least temporarily and perhaps over a longer period. That's another factor a company must think about.

I should think it likely that "the railways" will not be covering themselves for every eventuality, but I'm sure that most companies will be making some preparations and there may be contingency preparations for further things that may turn out to be necessary after we've passed the Brexit date.

An interesting further question might be what preparations are individuals making, but that would be for the General Discussion thread.

If the right deals aren't in place a number of new build EU trains will end up with tariffs placed upon them, think about it we could end up with a network made up of new build UK built trains if we aren't careful, remember how many manufacturers are from the EU & build UK trains in the EU:
Stadler
Siemens
CAF
Alstom

It'll only leave these companies manufacturing in the UK:
Bombardier
Hitachi
(Technically VivaRail)

Excluding VivaRail, the other two are large multi national companies who could pull out of the UK at any time!

Ultimately if things get nasty and high tariffs block franchise's from buying new rolling stock, we could go backwards very quickly and the average age of UK rolling stock could decline very quickly, either that or we the British public end up paying for the new trains including the high tariffs in huge fare increases!

Metal_gee_man said:

If the right deals aren't in place a number of new build EU trains will end up with tariffs placed upon them, think about it we could end up with a network made up of new build UK built trains if we aren't careful, remember how many manufacturers are from the EU & build UK trains in the EU:
Stadler
Siemens
CAF
Alstom

It'll only leave these companies manufacturing in the UK:
Bombardier
Hitachi
(Technically VivaRail)

Excluding VivaRail, the other two are large multi national companies who could pull out of the UK at any time!

Ultimately if things get nasty and high tariffs block franchise's from buying new rolling stock, we could go backwards very quickly and the average age of UK rolling stock could decline very quickly, either that or we the British public end up paying for the new trains including the high tariffs in huge fare increases!

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+CAF in Newport. That said, why would the UK put tarifs on trains built in Europe and approved by the DfT. Note: as far as I can see, the UK WTO tarif for rail vehicles, self-propelled or not, is 1.7%.

daikilo said:

+CAF. That said, why would the UK put tarifs on trains built in Europe and approved by the DfT. Indeed, is there currently a tarif on any built in Japan?

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It's more a case if the EU put tariffs on for example UK built Jaguars or Nissans then we will go tit for tat on say all vehicles from the EU, cars/buses/vans/trucks/trains

If they don't then I can't see there being a problem, but be realistic this negotiation stage is a complete clusterf%*k and if we don't pay them their £39bil they might not wanna play nice

daikilo said:

My opinion is that there is a recession already and caused in large part by the appalling quality of much of the communication on Brexit. I doubt it will get much worse even in a "no deal" Brexit. I suggest the only way to reverse it quickly will be withdrawal of the article 50 letter or something almost equivalent to that.

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I agree about the recession already, as far as most of us are concerned. Statistically, the whole country outside London has been in recession since 2008

Long-term, things will smooth themselves out whatever type of deal we reach. But many companies, including mine, are planning for short-term supply chain disruption in the event of no-deal. If this happens, then literally every truck coming into the UK (and out, into the EU) will have to have its accompanying paperwork checked by customs officials. This would cripple supply chains so quickly that hopefully HMRC would quickly implement an 'off-dock' system where vehicles freely pass through, and do the paperwork at an inland site. This could be an issue for the intermodal operators, as I suspect that for rail containers the customs formalities could be done at the railhead, with resulting truck queues as drivers wait to collect import boxes. Site congestion could compromise operations fairly quickly.
Certainly any train operator or maintainer who regularly import parts from the EU need to be planning for this disruption by building stocks where possible.

The honest answer is no one knows. Anyone who says otherwise is lying.

The subject of potential impacts of brexit on the railways go much wider than many here will ever understand.

DarloRich said:

The honest answer is no one knows. Anyone who says otherwise is lying.

The subject of potential impacts of brexit on the railways go much wider than many here will ever understand.

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You may be right, but just 4 months from the official date we need your insight into other significant impacts as you understand them.

I have just listened to a committee on parliamentliveTV and it is obvious that anything road may be worse than I had thought if we cannot retain European drivers as we have so many vacancies already.

daikilo said:

You may be right, but just 4 months from the official date we need your insight into other significant impacts as you understand them.

I have just listened to a committee on parliamentliveTV and it is obvious that anything road may be worse than I had thought if we cannot retain European drivers as we have so many vacancies already.

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Trust me if any Government thought the country was likely to go under financially as a result of shortage of HGV drivers, I am pretty certain they would introduce very short 'crash' (sic) courses for HGV drivers.

matacaster said:

Trust me if any Government thought the country was likely to go under financially as a result of shortage of HGV drivers, I am pretty certain they would introduce very short 'crash' (sic) courses for HGV drivers.

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From what was said, attracting eastern European drivers would be a better approach, which means paying them something closer to UK driver conditions.

Metal_gee_man said:

... the average age of UK rolling stock could decline very quickly ...

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I think you mean the average age could increase?

If there are significant disruptions, either economic or physical, I think it will act as a catalyst for far higher levels of remote and dynamic working than is the current pattern. If that happens, I doubt people will go back to 9-5 in the office. This will really need with rail passenger numbers and peak/off peak splits.

Metal_gee_man said:

If the right deals aren't in place a number of new build EU trains will end up with tariffs placed upon them,

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Then we'll probably end up which UK manufacturers making trains in the UK again in the long term, which is probably a good thing. Yes, there may be short term issues with delays in manufacture as the new UK plants get built, but that's just a temporary blip. The railways won't fall apart just because some trains are in use longer than planned whilst waiting for replacements to be manufactured.

If there is a deal, keeping us in "close regulatory alignment" with the EU, it is likely to limit our freedom to restructure the economy in the way Labour is planning.
Rules on state aid will get in the way of rail "nationalisation" as Mr Corbyn sees it (ie will continue to force competition in transport services).
Expecting full UK train manufacture is also a pipe-dream.
Derby imports very large amounts of kit from other parts of the Bombardier empire (traction systems, bogies etc), same with Hitachi, Alstom, CAF etc.
Just because there is a UK assembly line doesn't mean the whole train is "made in UK".
We don't build whole aircraft either, only wings and engines for assembly elsewhere.
That's what just-in-time, integrated supply chains and centres of excellence do to you.

underbank said:

Then we'll probably end up which UK manufacturers making trains in the UK again in the long term, which is probably a good thing. Yes, there may be short term issues with delays in manufacture as the new UK plants get built, but that's just a temporary blip. The railways won't fall apart just because some trains are in use longer than planned whilst waiting for replacements to be manufactured.

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could you tell me which UK company will build me a new high output train or tamper or regulator or stone blower or rail grinder?

DarloRich said:

could you tell me which UK company will build me a new high output train or tamper or regulator or stone blower or rail grinder?

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Carillion?

Oh...

As I said the other day, according to the .gov website, the current UK WTO import tariff for rail vehicles is 1.7% so I wouldn't count on a massive shift unless the UK decides to increase it!

Howardh said:

Carillion?

Oh...

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Operator only - they still bought from Plasser & Theurer

daikilo said:

As I said the other day, according to the .gov website, the current UK WTO import tariff for rail vehicles is 1.7% so I wouldn't count on a massive shift unless the UK decides to increase it!

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The biggest risk is we do not know. It is also more taxpayers money used up. The pot isnt bottomless!

DarloRich said:

The biggest risk is we do not know. It is also more taxpayers money used up. The pot isnt bottomless!

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There is a parliament committee on this at the minute:
https://www.parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/6b9ee79b-c15b-4e54-b6ae-971cdd512284

What I understand so far is that the current UK external tariff is harmonised with other EU countries. If we break away then we could choose to issue new schedules which could include changed tariffs.

Practically, if say CAF had to pay the 1.7% (to UK govt. coffers) they may or may not be able to reclaim it from the buyer (maybe a private ROSCo) who themselves may or may not be able to recover it in the lease rental. I assume it would not be in line with WTO rules if the govt. were to return the tariff to the buyer, however I assume the TOC could request a renegotiation. NR is a govt. agency so net neutral but I presume any other private company (freight or supplier) could be affected.

daikilo said:

Practically, if say CAF had to pay the 1.7% (to UK govt. coffers) they may or may not be able to reclaim it from the buyer (maybe a private ROSCo) who themselves may or may not be able to recover it in the lease rental. I assume it would not be in line with WTO rules if the govt. were to return the tariff to the buyer, however I assume the TOC could request a renegotiation. NR is a govt. agency so net neutral but I presume any other private company (freight or supplier) could be affected.

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It will be passed on to the buyer NR or otherwise.

Those who think that queuing of road freight into Dover and into the Channel ports on the European mainland will result in more freight on the rail network need to think a little deeper.
Why would queues of lorries develop? Because of the stricter customs checks that are required of goods entering the EU from outside of the EU. In the event of no deal, the UK and NI suddenly count as "outside".
Where would those stricter customs checks be required? On any boatload that has come from UK or NI, and on any trainload that has come through the channel tunnel.
What about containers that arrived at Felixstowe by rail and crossed to Europe by container ship? Yes, those too.

The only significant difference between lorry freight and rail freight is that there is no central "control" for lorries, so we have to provide parking for lorries arriving in Kent with nowhere to go. There is not a large amount of "parking" available on the railway. If Felixstowe becomes bunged up with containers with nowhere to go, Network Rail will soon be unable to provide paths into Felixstowe et al due to the sidings being full. Or the FOCs will be unable to run trains due to all their wagons being stacked with containers in port sidings.

Britain makes up only a small percentage of the mainland's trade. Any sane minister in charge of customs of a mainland country will have made it clear to his staff to continue to service ships from bigger trading partners in the usual fashion, and service ships from UK ports with whatever resources are left over. Why would France/Holland/Germany etc want to bugger up trade with big markets like the US, China, India?

Container ships are expensive pieces of kit bought through huge bank loans. Any time they are stuck in port waiting for customs, they are not earning revenue to service those loans and the owners start losing money to interest payments. If it becomes apparent that a trip from various ports in the Far East to various ports around the channel happens much quicker if the ship doesn't call at Felixstowe, then it won't stop at Felixstowe.

So all in all, in the event of a really bitter divorce from the mainland, I suspect we will see a lot less freight on the railway.

DaveTM said:

Those who think that queuing of road freight into Dover and into the Channel ports on the European mainland will result in more freight on the rail network need to think a little deeper.
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Your posting misses one major point. Each of those lorries queuing at Dover has an unproductive driver sitting in it. Containers arriving by rail are discharged to portside storage.

Overall,the delay to trade is the same, and not a good thing, but at least rail will not have hundreds or even thousands of unproductive staff in sleeper cabs.

However....
Much of the problem at Dover will be sheer localised space issues. You could throw customs officers at it but they would all have to be in that area and have space to work.
It will be easier to recruit extra customs etc if you don’t need them all in Dover - ie at freight terminals in the Midlands/North. And if things look desperate the government can placate BMW/JLR/Honda etc by offering to station customs bods at their factories for trainloads through the tunnel.
As for Felixstowe - how many of the boxes are from the EU? Won’t most of them be from the Far East/China etc, and therefore already subject to customs?

@furnessvale This is true, and those unproductive lorry drivers sitting on the M20 will need expensive toilet facilities etc. However if less freight is also running via rail there will be unproductive train drivers sitting in mess rooms, or worse, unpaid at home. How many days worth of portside storage is available at the big container ports? I can't imagine the ports have gone to the expense of concreting more land than they need in the usual run of business, so I don't expect there to be much spare storage.

@Meerkat The problem is not one that the UK can fix by recruiting UK customs officers and stationing them in car factories, because they will not be Dutch or Belgian or French customs officers. We currently have a shared customs process with the mainland because of our membership of the EU. Goods travelling between the mainland and the UK are currently inspected once only, either by ourselves or by the mainland depending on direction of travel. If we exit with no deal, then goods will have to be inspected twice, once by the export country to ensure that export taxes have been paid etc and once by the import country to ensure that import taxes have been paid etc. Yes, we can hire lots of extra customs officers to hurry along our side of the process, but on leaving the EU with no deal we no longer have any say in what goes on over the other side of the channel.

I would imagine their exporters will have a lot to say if their stuff is delayed and we starting switching to new suppliers....

For Derby remember most of the kits for the bodyshell come from abroad. China and Germany for underframes anyway. If its no longer viable to import kits, bye bye bodyshell? Just assemble them here or move the whole operation and import the finished product?

Looking at the news it looks like May's come up with some sort of plan - which is likely to be rejected by the cabinet, and then Parliament.
I'm down in London tomorrow, might just have a wander past Downing Street to see the flames!
Notice on some political messageboards thet quite a few die-hard Brexit voters have thrown in the towel, and want us now to remain for the sake of everyone's sanity! On the grounds of what's been offered is being in the Eu but without the say..so stay then. That's for the other thread of course, back on topic for this one there's concern about how many work permits can/could be given to UK lorry-drivers to work in the EU; so the railway angle could be that unless we end up with a swap of drivers en-route (ie ferry staff driving lorries on board and off again to be taken over by an EU driver) the rail option becomes a plausible alternative for some firms.
How strange that we want to shift goods in and out quickly with the minimum of checks, but not people. Looks like we come below tins of baked beans in the order of priorities.