2017-2018 Estimates of Station Usage

Starmill · 11 Dec 2018

DH1Commuter said:
The estimates must be very rough, given the number who appear to travel ticketless on lines where revenue collection is not enforced well.

If you take a look at the methodology of the report it's careful to specifically exclude ticketless travel.

While the estimates are just that, estimates, it's also notable that LENNON ticket sales data is not the only thing that goes into producing the estimates. Surveys, manual counts and electronically collected data are also made use of.

LNW-GW Joint said:
More likely to be due to the Lime St engineering closures sending more people via Parkway.

I bet this is because of enginiering works at Liverpool Lime Street. Passengers might have booked to Liverpool South Parkway when that was as far as trains went, and then continued their journey in their car, or a taxi or using a seperate bus ticket, rather than booking through to Liverpool and using Merseyrail.

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swt_passenger · 11 Dec 2018

Kite159 said:
1 - British Steel Redcar

No surprise at British Steel Redcar falling to least used on grounds that it is a station which sadly lacks any purpose since the steel works were closed, how long until it keeps 2 trains a day in each direction?

Do you mean how long will it be until it loses its current 2 trains a day?

ainsworth74 · 11 Dec 2018

swt_passenger said:
Do you mean how long will it be until it loses its current 2 trains a day?

Considering that at the May timetable change the service doubled from two trains per day to four I'm not sure it will!

Kite159 · 11 Dec 2018

swt_passenger said:
Do you mean how long will it be until it loses its current 2 trains a day?

Yep.

I still reckon it will drop to a token weekly service at some point, just to keep the station 'open' in the event the site gets developed. But it is like IBM in the main purpose of the station has gone.

pemma · 11 Dec 2018

Interesting ORR analysis. Altrincham and Hale have seen drops in usage which they've said is down to 'affected by North West electrification works' - well the non-delivery of additional services is down to that reason but surely RMT industrial action is the main reason. They've also used the same reason for a decline in usage at other Greater Manchester stations like Moston and Mills Hill, so possibly someone has been lazy and attached the reason to all GM stations with declines in usage

Greenbank, Lostock Gralam, Cuddington, Delamere and Mouldsworth have all seen increases in usage - possibly down to increased scholar usage.

LeeLivery · 11 Dec 2018

The Greenford Branch is suffering - big falls there. South Greenford halved, CBP and Drayton Grn both down 70,000 and Greenford down 80,000. I haven't ventured that way since before the curtailment at West Ealing. Something needs to be done there.

Happy to see Thameslink has seen steady growth in London, nearly all stations up.

Kite159 · 11 Dec 2018

jcollins said:
Interesting ORR analysis. Altrincham and Hale have seen drops in usage which they've said is down to 'affected by North West electrification works' - well the non-delivery of additional services is down to that reason but surely RMT industrial action is the main reason. They've also used the same reason for a decline in usage at other Greater Manchester stations like Moston and Mills Hill, so possibly someone has been lazy and attached the reason to all GM stations with declines in usage

Greenbank, Lostock Gralam, Cuddington, Delamere and Mouldsworth have all seen increases in usage - possibly down to increased scholar usage.

Not just those, I noticed there was a few random "Increase of South Eastern services blah blah" reasons given for increases at some rural Medway Valley stations when the service level has remained static [for example Yalding]

And when did Belle Vue 'lose 2 platforms'?

pemma · 11 Dec 2018

DH1Commuter said:
The estimates must be very rough, given the number who appear to travel ticketless on lines where revenue collection is not enforced well. That said, the least-used 10 contains no surprises.

The figures don't include any journeys for which tickets were not purchased. The estimates come from things like tickets issued to Manchester STNs or even TfGM Wayfarer which is valid to any station in GM plus many outside. Also for interchanges on tickets where it's possible to change at different stations e.g. London to Bolton could involve a change at Stockport or Manchester Piccadilly and it could even involve an additional at Salford Crescent.

pemma · 11 Dec 2018

Noticed Coombe Junction Halt has had a 26.4% decrease in usage to which ORR have responded 'absolute change in passenger numbers is small.'

RandomRailways · 11 Dec 2018

janb said:
It will impact Shippea Hill.

And Sugar Loaf - though that had seen a big increase in the previous year anyway: 132 passengers for 2015-16; 228 for 2016-17 (up 72.7%) that was before All The Stations visited - which made this years numbers a mega 1846 passengers - a 709% increase!
Some of this may also be due to the introduction of the Heart of Wales Trail, a walking route that links in with the line and is promoted by the line's development company

PR1Berske · 11 Dec 2018

The elusive 100m still not hit by Waterloo, of course.

ainsworth74 · 11 Dec 2018

Kite159 said:
Yep.

I still reckon it will drop to a token weekly service at some point, just to keep the station 'open' in the event the site gets developed. But it is like IBM in the main purpose of the station has gone.

I certainly don't disagree that it should get a token weekly service (or perhaps an IBM mothballing to be quite honest) but the service doubled from two to four services per day at the May timetable change so...

Kite159 · 11 Dec 2018

ainsworth74 said:
I certainly don't disagree that it should get a token weekly service (or perhaps an IBM mothballing to be quite honest) but the service doubled from two to four services per day at the May timetable change so...

The doubling of services in my mind was one of the oddest moves made by Northern in the May timetable change, wouldn't you agree? There must have been some reasoning behind it

Tobberz · 11 Dec 2018

Do we have a figure on overall change from last year?

Esker-pades · 11 Dec 2018

Tobberz said:
Do we have a figure on overall change from last year?

British Steel Redcar went down from 50 to 40.

camflyer · 11 Dec 2018

Geoff and Vicki report live on the data:

PR1Berske · 11 Dec 2018

Tobberz said:
Do we have a figure on overall change from last year?

Very crude Excel maths here, forgive me:

2016-17 Entries and Exits: 50,168,046
2017-18 Entries and Exits: 52,753,504

2017-18 Entries and Exits Season - 14,274,700

swt class 450 · 11 Dec 2018

Does anyone know exactly what dates this data covers? I know it is from some date in 2017 to some date in 2018 but it does not say exactly what dates?

Esker-pades · 11 Dec 2018

user1234 said:
Does anyone know exactly what dates this data covers? I know it is from some date in 2017 to some date in 2018 but it does not say exactly what dates?

April to April.

js1000 · 11 Dec 2018

Some of the Northern station usage stats make for pretty grim reading. No franchise should be recording falls given most of them are awarded on the basis it will grow. The scary thing is it doesn't include the shambolic May timetable or increased level of strikes.

swt class 450 · 11 Dec 2018

Many thanks. What exact date is it in April? Is it 01/04/2017 to 31/03/2018 or another date?

Any idea why they don't just do 01/01/XXXX to 31/12/XXXX every year? I think this would make more sense.

adrock1976 · 12 Dec 2018

user1234 said:
Many thanks. What exact date is it in April? Is it 01/04/2017 to 31/03/2018 or another date?

Any idea why they don't just do 01/01/XXXX to 31/12/XXXX every year? I think this would make more sense.

It may be done April - April so as to fit in with the tax year (6th to the 5th).

HH · 12 Dec 2018

adrock1976 said:
It may be done April - April so as to fit in with the tax year (6th to the 5th).

I doubt it - the railway year runs from April 1, so that would be the logical start date.

coxy · 12 Dec 2018

I wonder how split ticketing impacts the accuracy of the figures ?

For example, making a same day return journey from Slough (SLO) to Swindon (SWI) costs £33.10 with a Super Off Peak Return. However by splitting at Didcot Parkway (DID) you can get this down to £27.30 (£15.70 OP Day Return SLO to DID, plus £11.60 OP Day Return DID to SWI).

Buying the through ticket would give 1 entry/exit at Slough plus 1 entry/exit at Swindon.

However using the split tickets gives the possibility of 2 entry/exits at Didcot, when in reality you probably stayed on the train and never made it onto the platform, let alone passed through the ticket gates !

bspahh · 12 Dec 2018

adrock1976 said:
It may be done April - April so as to fit in with the tax year (6th to the 5th).

At http://orr.gov.uk/statistics/published-stats/station-usage-estimates there is a link to Station Usage Frequently Asked Questions http://orr.gov.uk/statistics/published-stats/station-usage-estimates/frequently-asked-questions where the second one is:

What is the reference period for the estimates of station usage?
The estimates of station usage are based on the financial year. Each year runs from 1 April to 31 March.

swt class 450 · 12 Dec 2018

Many thanks. That answers my question.

PR1Berske · 12 Dec 2018

coxy said:
I wonder how split ticketing impacts the accuracy of the figures ?

For example, making a same day return journey from Slough (SLO) to Swindon (SWI) costs £33.10 with a Super Off Peak Return. However by splitting at Didcot Parkway (DID) you can get this down to £27.30 (£15.70 OP Day Return SLO to DID, plus £11.60 OP Day Return DID to SWI).

Buying the through ticket would give 1 entry/exit at Slough plus 1 entry/exit at Swindon.

However using the split tickets gives the possibility of 2 entry/exits at Didcot, when in reality you probably stayed on the train and never made it onto the platform, let alone passed through the ticket gates !

Hence why the figures are always called "estimates"

Jamesrob637 · 12 Dec 2018

Heaton Chapel actually declined but very marginally. Wonder how the reduction of trains from 4tph off-peak to 3tph off-peak will affect 2018-2019 readings (and the re-introduction of 4tph off-peak will affect 2019-2020 readings!)

dk1 · 12 Dec 2018

Kite159 said:
Agreed.

I would put 10p on Shippea Hill returning to the bottom ten by the time the 2019-2020 estimates are released.

Dropped 3 ladies off there the other Saturday on the once weekly 18:38 from Norwich

Kite159 · 12 Dec 2018

dk1 said:
Dropped 3 ladies off there the other Saturday on the once weekly 18:38 from Norwich

The three sisters who live in one of the nearby houses popping out for some Christmas shopping in Thetford again?

2017-2018 Estimates of Station Usage

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