Camden Town Upgrade & Piccadilly Line resignalling axed for Crossrail

ijmad · 8 Jan 2019

New Civil Engineer reports:

Due to Crossrail budget overruns and lack of additional support from central government:

"Procurement for upgrade works at Camden Town station as well as works along the Piccadilly line will be discontinued"

Click to expand...

"Progress to major station upgrades at Elephant & Castle and Holborn stations and completing work at Bank station, as well as opening the Northern Line extension to Battersea are set out as a priorities for the five-year period."

Click to expand...

I think we knew about the Piccadilly Line cancellation already, but the Camden Town news is new to me.

Very disappointing as it seems like they've been trying to figure out how to do this upgrade for as long as I can remember. However if there's no money for new trains or other capacity uplift work on the Northern Line, I suppose the existing station may just about get by as-is, exit only on Sundays (unless you want to take the stairs) for the foreseeable future.

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Mojo · 8 Jan 2019

ijmad said:
I suppose the existing station may continue to operate as-is, exit only on Sundays (unless you want to take the stairs) for the foreseeable future.

Even if you want to take the stairs on Sundays, the station still runs as exit-only.

rebmcr · 8 Jan 2019

I imagine Camden Town will be a near certainty for the shortlist of the next five-year period, however.

Piccadilly upgrade can probably be 'played by ear' and taken up if the traffic levels demand it.

ijmad · 8 Jan 2019

Mojo said:
Even if you want to take the stairs on Sundays, the station still runs as exit-only.

It actually seems this was just changed last week, unless you have insider knowledge, at least this is what their twitter said:

https://twitter.com/northernline/status/1080448643671429120

Camden Town is no longer exit-only on Sundays, but a one-way system will be in place. Access will be via the 96 spiral stairs.

You wonder if they might do the same at Covent Garden when it's exit only.

MatthewRead · 8 Jan 2019

So what is going to happen to the Piccadilly line it was meant to be receiving new signalling which would then mean a daily service from turnham Green.

Mikey C · 8 Jan 2019

Very disappointing as they the chance to do something relatively easily at the moment as a school north of the station has closed down, giving them a vacant site to use for the construction work and new station. It's desperately needed, as well as the tourists Camden Town is a major interchange and increasingly used to change to the Overground at Camden Road

ijmad · 8 Jan 2019

Mikey C said:
Very disappointing as they the chance to do something relatively easily at the moment as a school north of the station has closed down, giving them a vacant site to use for the construction work and new station. It's desperately needed, as well as the tourists Camden Town is a major interchange and increasingly used to change to the Overground at Camden Road

I wonder what will happen to the school site. Hoarded up and left to ruin for the next 5 or 10 years?

gottago · 8 Jan 2019

Have TFL at least purchased the school site for future use?

ijmad · 8 Jan 2019

gottago said:
Have TFL at least purchased the school site for future use?

I thought they had when the school moved out. I could be wrong.

rebmcr · 9 Jan 2019

gottago said:
Have TFL at least purchased the school site for future use?

ijmad said:
I thought they had when the school moved out. I could be wrong.

If that's true, it can at least earn its keep as a temporary lease until they're ready to start digging.

LeeLivery · 9 Jan 2019

Is the current Piccadilly line signalling at its limits? Of all the tube lines, it's the one I use the least, but whenever I use it, it is rammed. With the new fleet is there any possibility of a higher frequency with the current signalling?

ijmad · 9 Jan 2019

LeeLivery said:
Is the current Piccadilly line signalling at its limits? Of all the tube lines, it's the one I use the least, but whenever I use it, it is rammed. With the new fleet is there any possibility of a higher frequency with the current signalling?

London Reconnections did a good write-up this:

We also get some idea as to what improvements the arrival of those trains will enable – an initial push to 27tph by 2026 (A train every 2.2mins)

So 27tph is the limit with existing signalling, the main factor in getting there being the requirement of additional trains, which they'll get from the NTfL programme whether or not they resignal. 27tph isn't impressive compared to 36tph on the Victoria line, but is a 12.5% improvement over the current peak service of 24tph.

NTfL walkthrough trains should deliver a 10% capacity improvement on top of that.

So combined, this is nearly 25% up on where we are today even without CBTC.

If they do eventually find money for resignalling, and went to Victoria-line level 36tph between Acton Town and Arnos Grove, that'd represent a 65% capacity increase over where we are today, or 33% improvement over and above 27tph with NTfL.

LeeLivery · 9 Jan 2019

ijmad said:
London Reconnections did a good write-up this:

So 27tph is the limit with existing signalling, the main factor in getting there being the requirement of additional trains, which they'll get from the NTfL programme whether or not they resignal. 27tph isn't impressive compared to 36tph on the Victoria line, but is a 12.5% improvement over the current peak service of 24tph.

NTfL walkthrough trains should deliver a 10% capacity improvement on top of that.

So combined, this is nearly 25% up on where we are today even without CBTC.

If they do eventually find money for resignalling, and went to Victoria-line level 36tph between Acton Town and Arnos Grove, that'd represent a 65% capacity increase over where we are today, or 33% improvement over and above 27tph with NTfL.

65% increase is a big figure. 25% should be ok for some time, I'm sure XR will have some impact on Heathrow passengers, especially if it's clearly marked as being faster.

I'd be very impressed by 36tph for the Piccadilly, but I'd be surprised if it's realistic. The Victoria is a simple Walthamstow to Brixton route with a few Seven Sisters stars/terminators. Surely it would be very difficult to have the Heathrow Loop, Heathrow T5, Uxbridge/Rayners and future Ealing Broadway services combining efficiently to create 36tph for the core.

ijmad · 9 Jan 2019

LeeLivery said:
I'd be very impressed by 36tph for the Piccadilly, but I'd be surprised if it's realistic. The Victoria is a simple Walthamstow to Brixton route with a few Seven Sisters stars/terminators. Surely it would be very difficult to have the Heathrow Loop, Heathrow T5, Uxbridge/Rayners and future Ealing Broadway services combining efficiently to create 36tph for the core.

Who can say, I guess we'll find out if they do it. In favour of the Piccadilly Line hitting 36tph would be (1) that Acton Town is a conflict free junction for trains heading to Heathrow and (2) resignalling would likely mean the Piccadilly takes over the District Line's Ealing Broadway branch to keep the two lines entirely segregated.

The current peak service plan is 12tph to Heathrow and 12tph to Uxbridge. With another 12tph 'in play' I'd conjecture they'd send 6tph or 8tph to Ealing Broadway to maintain the roughly the current service level (7tph District), meaning the branches go to 14/14, 15/15 or 16/14 which seems manageable.

As you say though, a question would be whether marshalling trains from the branches back in to the core works from a timetabling point of view particularly at the beginning and end of the peaks.

ijmad · 9 Jan 2019

MatthewRead said:
So what is going to happen to the Piccadilly line it was meant to be receiving new signalling which would then mean a daily service from turnham Green.

It's within the realm of possibility that you could stop the Piccadilly Line at Turnham Green without resignalling, you just need more trains (which NTfL would provide). TfL have said that availability of trains is the main blocker, followed by concerns around making journeys to/from Heathrow slower. Once Crossrail is finally open anyone who wants to get to Heathrow quickly will surely be on that rather than the tube, so it may be a moot point. So it's all about the number of trains.

Who can say what TfL will eventually decide is the right decision though.

If the Piccadilly Line gets the Ealing Broadway branch then surely an all-day stop at Turnham Green would be required for interchange purposes to preserve journey opportunities for those going from Stamford Brook/Ravenscourt Park to Acton Town, Ealing Common and Ealing Broadway.

bionic · 9 Jan 2019

Presumably at some point the order for the new trains for the Picc will be either cancelled or massively delayed. If it's not I'll be shocked. It seems TFL awarded the contract to Siemens just before announcing there was no money for anything except Crossrail.

The Picc line signalling upgrade being postponed indefinitely has been dropped into the public domain as a little one-liner at the end of other news rather than the huge bombshell you'd expect such news to be... its certainly far bigger news, and far more detrimental to London generally than the Camden Town works.

Let's not forget that as recently as 2011 LU were saying they expected to have the SSR fully ATO by 2017, the Bakerloo 'remotely operated' by 2018 and the Picc joining it as 'remotely operated' by 2020.

If you look at the utter shambles that is the SSR signalling upgrade and the debacle of Crossrail, combined with the fact that TFL are completely skint, does anyone seriously think there'll really be brand new space-age trains in service on the Picc in 5 years time?

No chance!

LeeLivery · 9 Jan 2019

ijmad said:
Who can say, I guess we'll find out if they do it. In favour of the Piccadilly Line hitting 36tph would be (1) that Acton Town is a conflict free junction for trains heading to Heathrow and (2) resignalling would likely mean the Piccadilly takes over the District Line's Ealing Broadway branch to keep the two lines entirely segregated.

The current peak service plan is 12tph to Heathrow and 12tph to Uxbridge. With another 12tph 'in play' I'd conjecture they'd send 6tph or 8tph to Ealing Broadway to maintain the roughly the current service level (7tph District), meaning the branches go to 14/14, 15/15 or 16/14 which seems manageable.

As you say though, a question would be whether marshalling trains from the branches back in to the core works from a timetabling point of view particularly at the beginning and end of the peaks.

We'll see if it's possible, though it's going to be quite a wait.

bionic said:
Presumably at some point the order for the new trains for the Picc will be either cancelled or massively delayed. If it's not I'll be shocked. It seems TFL awarded the contract to Siemens just before announcing there was no money for anything except Crossrail.

The Picc line signalling upgrade being postponed indefinitely has been dropped into the public domain as a little one-liner at the end of other news rather than the huge bombshell you'd expect such news to be... its certainly far bigger news, and far more detrimental to London generally than the Camden Town works.

Let's not forget that as recently as 2011 LU were saying they expected to have the SSR fully ATO by 2017, the Bakerloo 'remotely operated' by 2018 and the Picc joining it as 'remotely operated' by 2020.

If you look at the utter shambles that is the SSR signalling upgrade and the debacle of Crossrail, combined with the fact that TFL are completely skint, does anyone seriously think there'll really be brand new space-age trains in service on the Picc in 5 years time?

No chance!

According to the London Recconections link in post #12, the fleet is being paid for by the leaseback of the Crossrail fleet. I don't think TfL really keep all the Bakerloo and Piccadilly line sets in service for much longer without serious problems. It is true Paris and New York both have fleets that are older, but if the Piccadilly fleet is replaced, spare parts even whole sets I imagine, could be used for the Bakerloo. With the contract now signed, cancelling would probably cost TfL quite some money in legal fees, screwing over Siemens, it's new factory and workers (the only contract Goole has?). Not forgetting Bombardier took them to court over it, I doubt TfL would want to go down that road.

We aren't in NYC Subway sad state of funding territory just yet.

Dstock7080 · 9 Jan 2019

LeeLivery said:
It is true Paris and New York both have fleets that are older, but if the Piccadilly fleet is replaced, spare parts even whole sets I imagine, could be used for the Bakerloo.

Very few parts, if any would be compatible across 1972 Bakerloo and 1973 Piccadilly Stocks, difference car length, difference braking system, auxiliary power distribution etc.

bramling · 9 Jan 2019

bionic said:
Presumably at some point the order for the new trains for the Picc will be either cancelled or massively delayed. If it's not I'll be shocked. It seems TFL awarded the contract to Siemens just before announcing there was no money for anything except Crossrail.

The Picc line signalling upgrade being postponed indefinitely has been dropped into the public domain as a little one-liner at the end of other news rather than the huge bombshell you'd expect such news to be... its certainly far bigger news, and far more detrimental to London generally than the Camden Town works.

Let's not forget that as recently as 2011 LU were saying they expected to have the SSR fully ATO by 2017, the Bakerloo 'remotely operated' by 2018 and the Picc joining it as 'remotely operated' by 2020.

If you look at the utter shambles that is the SSR signalling upgrade and the debacle of Crossrail, combined with the fact that TFL are completely skint, does anyone seriously think there'll really be brand new space-age trains in service on the Picc in 5 years time?

No chance!

If the Picc Line fleet replacement is cancelled, bearing in mind it was already deferred as a consequence of the PPP collapse, then it will be announced at a time convenient to the mayoral process, or to put it another way a time least damaging for Sadiq Khan.

From what I gather the SSR milestone in March will happen more-or-less come what may, for similar reasons of mayoral expedience.

LeeLivery · 10 Jan 2019

Dstock7080 said:
Very few parts, if any would be compatible across 1972 Bakerloo and 1973 Piccadilly Stocks, difference car length, difference braking system, auxiliary power distribution etc.

Oh right, I assumed they and the old Victoria stock were all quite similar underneath.

TommyL4 · 10 Jan 2019

Speaking of the Picc, it would be interesting to see what TfL's gonna do with further NTfL objectives. I think a realistic problem is having to maintain or even refurbish the 1972 Bakerloo stocks for the time being. They would be over 50 years old when the new trains arrive, if they do arrive on time! Are there any odds that fulfilling the objectives as those involving the Bakerloo, Central and W&C lines may be delayed or even cancelled?

edwin_m · 10 Jan 2019

The Bakerloo fleet will have to be replaced if and when the Lewisham extension goes ahead, as there won't be enough existing trains to operate it and a mixed fleet won't work.

bionic · 10 Jan 2019

edwin_m said:
The Bakerloo fleet will have to be replaced if and when the Lewisham extension goes ahead, as there won't be enough existing trains to operate it and a mixed fleet won't work.

The Lewisham extension is another one. Can't see that happening any time soon either.

bionic · 10 Jan 2019

bramling said:
If the Picc Line fleet replacement is cancelled, bearing in mind it was already deferred as a consequence of the PPP collapse, then it will be announced at a time convenient to the mayoral process, or to put it another way a time least damaging for Sadiq Khan.

From what I gather the SSR milestone in March will happen more-or-less come what may, for similar reasons of mayoral expedience.

Totally agree. The whole thing is a political football. The interests of the travelling public come a poor second. At least we've got that really useful cable car though.

rebmcr · 10 Jan 2019

Dstock7080 said:
Very few parts, if any would be compatible across 1972 Bakerloo and 1973 Piccadilly Stocks, difference car length, difference braking system, auxiliary power distribution etc.

LeeLivery said:
Oh right, I assumed they and the old Victoria stock were all quite similar underneath.

'73 Tube Stock shares design with the D Stock, not with other Tube Stocks. '72 Tube Stock was the last of the 'old' design.

The withdrawal of the previous Northern line fleet will have likely filled the coffers of the Bakerloo line's spare parts cupboard, though.

SteveOfTheStow · 10 Jan 2019

TommyL4 said:
Speaking of the Picc, it would be interesting to see what TfL's gonna do with further NTfL objectives. I think a realistic problem is having to maintain or even refurbish the 1972 Bakerloo stocks for the time being. They would be over 50 years old when the new trains arrive, if they do arrive on time! Are there any odds that fulfilling the objectives as those involving the Bakerloo, Central and W&C lines may be delayed or even cancelled?

The Bakerloo benefits though from being comparatively quieter than other tube lines, as it's shadowed quite heavily by the Overground, Jubilee and Northern lines, and only extends to the suburbs in one direction right now. The 1972 stock shouldn't be soldiering on in the state that it is, but the low demands on it mean it can for a while. Crossrail will help even further as many Paddington commuters will likely choose that over the Bakerloo for onward travel.

I expect we'll see a sharp increase in fares in the next mayoralty to start backfilling TfL's coffers and pay for these projects, as there's nowhere else to grab money from after the creative solutions like leasing back the 345s have been exhausted, and the NTfL does need to come in on the remaining lines by the mid-2030s or they'll start to become unsafe.

LeeLivery · 10 Jan 2019

rebmcr said:
'73 Tube Stock shares design with the D Stock, not with other Tube Stocks. '72 Tube Stock was the last of the 'old' design.

The withdrawal of the previous Northern line fleet will have likely filled the coffers of the Bakerloo line's spare parts cupboard, though.

Learn something new every day.

SteveOfTheStow said:
The Bakerloo benefits though from being comparatively quieter than other tube lines, as it's shadowed quite heavily by the Overground, Jubilee and Northern lines, and only extends to the suburbs in one direction right now. The 1972 stock shouldn't be soldiering on in the state that it is, but the low demands on it mean it can for a while. Crossrail will help even further as many Paddington commuters will likely choose that over the Bakerloo for onward travel.

I expect we'll see a sharp increase in fares in the next mayoralty to start backfilling TfL's coffers and pay for these projects, as there's nowhere else to grab money from after the creative solutions like leasing back the 345s have been exhausted, and the NTfL does need to come in on the remaining lines by the mid-2030s or they'll start to become unsafe.

I think sharp increases in fares depends on the government of the day. There's only so much people can afford until usage starts falling further and they end up with less money than they otherwise would've had. I know I'd think twice before travelling if tube fares become much more expensive. Only time will tell whether Westminster will still be in Tory control and I highly doubt City Hall will become Tory in the next London election. So it'll be interesting to see what happens here. If the centre-left/left wing parties form a coalition or Labour gets an outright majority (which I doubt), TfL may well get some subsidies back.

Government's of the day want to be seen as supporting British industry and increasingly the northern economy. What's better than giving a British factory "oop north" billions of pounds worth of orders?

bramling · 10 Jan 2019

SteveOfTheStow said:
The Bakerloo benefits though from being comparatively quieter than other tube lines, as it's shadowed quite heavily by the Overground, Jubilee and Northern lines, and only extends to the suburbs in one direction right now. The 1972 stock shouldn't be soldiering on in the state that it is, but the low demands on it mean it can for a while. Crossrail will help even further as many Paddington commuters will likely choose that over the Bakerloo for onward travel.

I expect we'll see a sharp increase in fares in the next mayoralty to start backfilling TfL's coffers and pay for these projects, as there's nowhere else to grab money from after the creative solutions like leasing back the 345s have been exhausted, and the NTfL does need to come in on the remaining lines by the mid-2030s or they'll start to become unsafe.

This all sums things up rather well IMO.

There’s three fleets which all have a “claim” on replacement for various reasons, but all with caveats.

1) 72 stock on Bakerloo is well past its design life, but as things stand at the moment is performing reasonably well. The Bakerloo is a low priority for full-scale line upgrade, and there’s the complication of an extension proposal in the more distant future.

2) 73 stock on Piccadilly is again well past its design life, but is again performing reasonably well. In fact until recently it was one of the more reliable fleets IIRC, but has started dipping again recently. The complication is meshing in with any line upgrade, which is essential if the Picc is to provide the density of service seen elsewhere. Having said that, some money has recently been spent on a new signal control system and room, dealing with the worst of the immediate life-expired signalling equipment.

3) Central alone 92 stock is not life expired on paper, but continues to perform extremely badly in terms of reliability and availability. However money needs to be spent *now* on ensuring these trains can continue to run, so new trains in the future isn’t a full solution. Likewise the signalling is relatively modern so replacement shouldn’t need to be pressing.

Take your pick from that lot!

Camden Town Upgrade & Piccadilly Line resignalling axed for Crossrail

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