EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

Giugiaro · 18 Jan 2019

maradona10 said:
I'd be inclined to think that after a close vote initially, and a few years of Brexit chaos, the outcome would most likely be to remain in the EU?

YouGov had a snap voting on January 16, 2019, and the results show that most would vote to remain, otherwise leave with no deal.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.n...5/PeoplesVoteResults_190116_SnapPolling_w.pdf

I remember polls last year indicated that results for a second referendum would be close to those of the first referendum, meaning Leave would win a simple majority.
It seems that after Theresa May postponed the vote to January, people started shifting towards remaining, and leavers became more sympathized with the idea of leaving with no EU relationship.

I understand that Leavers are becoming fed up with both Theresa May's proposed deal and the general attitude of the EU, preferring leaving with no deal than "having to keep this **** up".

I don't blame them, I would also be very pissed off right now.

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Groningen · 18 Jan 2019

That Theresa May needs to have plan B by Monday is unrealistic. Also after 2,5 years she is going to talk with other parties other than the Tories. Nobody knows where this will end.

Mag_seven · 18 Jan 2019

Giugiaro said:
YouGov had a snap voting on January 16, 2019, and the results show that most would vote to remain, otherwise leave with no deal.

As a remainer I'm now actually beginning to like the idea of no deal if only because after say 5 years of the unmitigated disaster no deal would be, it would see the country begging to be let back in.

AM9 · 18 Jan 2019

Mag_seven said:
As a remainer I'm now actually beginning to like the idea of no deal if only because after say 5 years of the unmitigated disaster no deal would be, it would see the country begging to be let back in.

I find that has a certain appeal as well. As far as my personal situation goes, it makes little difference what happens. Being neither fabulously wealthy nor living close to the breadline, anything that happens in the UK economy is unlikely to hit me first. Those to whom money is their only interest will have to watch their riches decline as consumer spending falls away. At the other end of the scale there are the masses who just live each day as it comes. They are the core of the leave vote and will see that principles (whether misdirected or not) don't stave off the hunger. That's when the unrest will start. They will see that those at the top of the leave campaign are mainly speculators and they will have done very well at the expense of everybody else.

Mag_seven · 18 Jan 2019

AM9 said:
At the other end of the scale there are the masses who just live each day as it comes. They are the core of the leave vote and will see that principles (whether misdirected or not) don't stave off the hunger. That's when the unrest will start. They will see that those at the top of the leave campaign are mainly speculators and they will have done very well at the expense of everybody else.

Problem is that the snake oil salesmen who persuaded those people to vote against their own interests will soon find something (or more likely someone) else other that leaving the EU to blame. It will be the fault of "that immigrant over there", or "that single mother over there", or "that benefit claimant over there" etc etc.

nidave · 18 Jan 2019

Mutant Lemming said:
Gawd… am actually starting to think that maybe we should have another vote... opposed as I am to the EU Soviet/Reich another vote will really only go one of two ways -
a narrow victory for remain prompting a best of three response from leave voters.. but much more likely will be a more emphatic leave vote... and then what ? more toys out of the pram from those opposed to democracy ?
...I do get it - we had years opposing Thatcher (on far less of a popular vote) but we had to cede to the will of the democratic vote. The alternative will lead us to the slippery slope of some form of dictatorship where "those who know better" will tell us how to live our lives.

Do you type this with a straight face???

If your that terrified of a union you should be fine with Scottish independence or is it only some unions you don't like. What about work unions. You for or against those. Do you like the USA or should each state go it alone.

What about the co-op. What's your opinion on them working together for the good of all. I'm interested to see where you draw the line at unions.

AM9 · 18 Jan 2019

Mag_seven said:
Problem is that the snake oil salesmen who persuaded those people to vote against their own interests will soon find something (or more likely someone) else other that leaving the EU to blame. It will be the fault of "that immigrant over there", or "that single mother over there", or "that benefit claimant over there" etc etc.

In the short term probably that's true but the truth will filter down they they are just fodder to the politicians, especially if there is another right-wing Conservative administration. When the government tries to remove some of the rights that the EU has given us over the last couple of decades, (probably on the premise that we need a level playing field to get a trade deal with various 'sweat-shop' governments) the novelty may start to wear off. It will soon become clear that 'Taking back control' is only relevant to a few politicians and capitalists. Of course there would be few complaints from the many small businesses in the UK from where the leave campaingners got a lot of support, for them worker right are already an anathema.

HH · 18 Jan 2019

I think some form of leave will eventually happen, because TM is determined to deliver it and JC wants it (even though he is carefully avoiding saying so); as I've already noted a second referendum would be very unlikely to produce a clear result, so why bother having one - half the electorate would still be unhappy whatever the result.

After that, Labour will win the next election, because Jezza has learnt to say nothing and the Tories will be nigh-on unelectable. The joint effect of Brexit and his communist policies are going to accelerate our long drawn out decline and we'll become so poor that nobody will want to migrate here. I guess you will be able to call that a success for Brexit.

SteveP29 · 18 Jan 2019

Revilo said:
Raaaaab was only in the job a few weeks.

4 months is considerably longer than 'a few weeks'

Revilo said:
but it all comes back to the question of who has sovereignty and control ie who decides what level and type of immigration we have, the UK or the EU

As brexiters have been told millions of times now, the UK Government had the power to do so all the time, that they chose not to do anything is NOT the fault of the EU

nidave · 18 Jan 2019

When the DM is starting to report what a shambles brexit has been you know its getting serious.. or a joke

Almost NO replacement trade deals will be ready when the UK leaves the EU on 29 March, Liam Fox's trade department admits

Department for International Trade has failed to meet vow to replace EU deals

Trade Secretary Liam Fox said 40 existing EU deals would be duplicated

Senior Tory insisted the deals would all be ready 'one second' after March 29

But almost none of them are even close to being finished, reports today say

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...plicate-40-EUs-trade-deals-time-exit-day.html

trash80 · 18 Jan 2019

Who could have guessed that disgraced former defence secretary Liam Fox would fail?

DynamicSpirit · 18 Jan 2019

I'm starting to think that a plausible outcome is this:

Parliament will vote to extend Article 50, in agreement with the EU, until July-ish, simply because that's about the only thing that will be able to command a definite majority in the Commons. However the extension won't resolve anything. The Government will remain paralysed because there is no solution to Brexit, either staying in or leaving, that can get enough support within the Government and Parliament. All the time, the Government bandwidth devoted to Brexit will continue to stop the Government from paying much attention to most other issues. The longer the Government remains effectively paralysed by Brexit, the more people will just get fed up with it, and the more some Brexit supporters will come round to the view that staying in the EU is better than having a Government that cannot do anything other than permanently argue with itself about Brexit. That will be reflected in opinion polls, giving MPs the confidence to seek another extension to Article 50. Eventually Brexit will be postponed without a definite date for when it's going to happen, and will gradually drop from the political agenda as a priority. And then, in 10 year's time or so, when the issue is a lot less toxic and less prominent than it is today, a future Government will just cancel the Article 50 notice with very little fuss.

nlogax · 18 Jan 2019

From what I've seen, the longer this godforsaken process rumbles on the louder the shouts for 'Just get on with it and get us out!' become. I doubt that many leavers will change their mind just because the government has finally encountered the cold, hard reality of trying to deliver this burning brown bag of dog-eggs while keeping the economy and the Union intact.

Howardh · 18 Jan 2019

nlogax said:
From what I've seen, the longer this godforsaken process rumbles on the louder the shouts for 'Just get on with it and get us out!' become. I doubt that many leavers will change their mind just because the government has finally encountered the cold, hard reality of trying to deliver this burning brown bag of dog-eggs while keeping the economy and the Union intact.

It's a fair point, but the leave majority was so slim all it needs is for just over 2% to think Brexit will damage them/the country based on the realities (hey, look at the news today, outrage at drugs shortages...and that's as far as I know not Brexit/EU related at all!), change their mind and suddenly Brexit is in the minority.
Of course many voters have died/come on to the register which may or may not alter the percentages, we would only know with another vote.

Think the big turning point would be the leave voters in Norn who might be thinking Brexit will eventually dump them both in another country (RoI) and still in the EU....so what's the point of voting Brexit when the exact opposite to what they want could happen to them?

Love to be on the outside looking in!

Giugiaro · 18 Jan 2019

DynamicSpirit said:
The longer the Government remains effectively paralysed by Brexit, the more people will just get fed up with it, and the more some Brexit supporters will come round to the view that staying in the EU is better than having a Government that cannot do anything other than permanently argue with itself about Brexit.

Or you could do like Donald Trump [1] and shift the blame on the EU. Don't forget, the deal was negotiated between Government and the EU and, as far as I know, the European politicians have been reluctant to renegotiate the deal. [2]

The trump card (no pun intended) here is "the EU doesn't want to negotiate a better deal with us", and given how unpopular the current one was on parliament, and the victory over the MONC, I think Theresa May, or anyone else out there, can say the EU is basically "fuc**** around with us Brits" and start defending a No Deal Brexit as the best outcome for the UK and its people.

You could say that the EU is just trying to defend itself by avoiding having a future outsider get more benefits than its own members, creating a cascading number of Exists, literally collapsing the union. [3]
But we live in a world where common folk now only watch and read what suits them, [4] so...

1 - PENGELLY, Martin - Trump blames Democrats for deaths of children as shutdown grinds on [Em linha]. London: The Guardian, 2018. Disponível em WWW:<URL:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/dec/29/government-shutdown-donald-trump-democrats>.

2 - BBC - Brexit: EU says no to May on renegotiating deal [Em linha]. London: British Broadcasting Corporation, 2018. Disponível em WWW:<URL:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46560807>.
3 - TLDR News UK - Will The EU Collapse After The UK Leaves?: Brexit Explained [Em linha]. Reino Unido: TLDR News UK, 2018. Disponível em WWW:<URL:

>.
4 - MAZA, Carlos - Why every social media site is a dumpster fire [Em linha]. New York: Vox, 2018. Disponível em WWW:<URL:

>.

HH · 18 Jan 2019

Delighted bosses today unveiled the first British-made model to roll off the production line since the country voted to leave the EU.

And experts say the gleaming red family car – pictured below – is evidence brilliant British craftsmanship is here to stay.

https://www.suffolkgazette.com/busi...ODV3HVIPcM1XbFyrYJQ5jOLkwgkrX8Qiz78j8BY-XwKuM

I think it's a joke...

nidave · 20 Jan 2019

This is rather Intresting and some interesting replies from both leave voters and remain voters

Eurosceptic argument - as it was - held together rather well around a single unifying idea: that the UK could not historically, culturally, spiritually, politically go where the EU is heading....to (crudely) "a country called Europe
Britain's opt-outs and exceptions were testament to that fact.

'Brexitism' then grew out of euroscepticism in the 2000s because of the feeling that despite opt-outs, the integrationist ratchet was still dragging us where we didn't want to go. /2
Yet the eurosceptic movement (as it was still called), still roughly held together despite the narcissism of small differences. /3
But somewhere in its "policy", euroscepticism had a dirty secret (to match Remainers' dirty secret - more on that another time)...

This is a Twitter post pulled together by an app.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1086899951735574528.html

Aictos · 20 Jan 2019

HH said:
I think some form of leave will eventually happen, because TM is determined to deliver it and JC wants it (even though he is carefully avoiding saying so); as I've already noted a second referendum would be very unlikely to produce a clear result, so why bother having one - half the electorate would still be unhappy whatever the result.

After that, Labour will win the next election, because Jezza has learnt to say nothing and the Tories will be nigh-on unelectable. The joint effect of Brexit and his communist policies are going to accelerate our long drawn out decline and we'll become so poor that nobody will want to migrate here. I guess you will be able to call that a success for Brexit.

And everyone will be emigrating to Poland etc to find work which is the reverse of what happened when Poland joined the EU...

Nothing against Poland but it's a simple reply to HH above

HH · 20 Jan 2019

nidave said:
This is rather Intresting and some interesting replies from both leave voters and remain voters
This is a Twitter post pulled together by an app.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1086899951735574528.html

It's well written, and echoes, I feel, what we've been saying on here, but from a leave voter's perspective:

1. The Brexit guys have never had a plan; and
2. The sudden love for "no deal" Brexit is simply because none of the possible deals can gain enough support, not because it's a good option.

As I said way back in the thread (and is even now more appropriate with the re-make of missing Dad's Army episodes), "We're doomed. Doomed, I tell you."

bramling · 20 Jan 2019

HH said:
It's well written, and echoes, I feel, what we've been saying on here, but from a leave voter's perspective:

1. The Brexit guys have never had a plan; and
2. The sudden love for "no deal" Brexit is simply because none of the possible deals can gain enough support, not because it's a good option.

As I said way back in the thread (and is even now more appropriate with the re-make of missing Dad's Army episodes), "We're doomed. Doomed, I tell you."

Rees-Mogg has always consistently said that no deal is a viable option if not the optimal one.

Personally I find all the talk of “deals” slightly distracting if not distasteful.

Ianno87 · 20 Jan 2019

bramling said:
Rees-Mogg has always consistently said that no deal is a viable option if not the optimal one.

Personally I find all the talk of “deals” slightly distracting if not distasteful.

Rees-Mogg strikes me as not having the faintest idea of what he's actually talking about. Either that, or being actively disingenuous.

nidave · 20 Jan 2019

bramling said:
Rees-Mogg has always consistently said that no deal is a viable option if not the optimal one.

Personally I find all the talk of “deals” slightly distracting if not distasteful.

Your are taking a single data point and applying this to everyone who voted leave - this is a dangerous thing. We are saying there is no consensus on what leave means and you are just brushing that aside.

It is staggering there are people out there who dont want a deal and are willingly wanting to destroy the UK

cactustwirly · 20 Jan 2019

bramling said:
Rees-Mogg has always consistently said that no deal is a viable option if not the optimal one.

Personally I find all the talk of “deals” slightly distracting if not distasteful.

Rees-Mogg is a stuck up brat, and knows nothing about Brexit!
No deal isn't a viable option; with a hard border with Ireland, and shortages of vital things such as food and medicine!

nidave · 20 Jan 2019

Ianno87 said:
Rees-Mogg strikes me as not having the faintest idea of what he's actually talking about. Either that, or being actively disingenuous.

He is in it to increase his bank balance- he doesnt give a flying **** about anyone else. If it was more profitable for him I bet he would change his stance.

nidave · 20 Jan 2019

For those that are desperate for a no deal this is what awaits ... how will this impact the roads in the south.. will it mean more people take to the trains (thereby increasing the pressure rather than reducing it as some think will happen by leaving the EU)

this is with Turkey in the Customs Union - a no deal Brexit looks super anyway you look at it./s

Turkey border gridlock hints at pain to come for Brexit Britain Truck drivers bemoan long queues and endless paperwork needed to enter EU Keep on trucking: Drivers sometimes wait for several hours to cross over into the EU
Mehul Srivastava in Kapikule and Alex Barker in Brussels February 16, 2017
For a glimpse of what British trade into the EU might look like post-Brexit, take a drive to Turkey’s northern border with Bulgaria, one of the busiest land crossings in Europe. On a recent Saturday at the Kapıkule border crossing, about 30 minutes drive from the Turkish city of Edirne, a line of trucks 4km long stretched along the highway, inching along glacially towards the Bulgarian checkpoints. “Today is a good day,” said Ibrahim Kurtukcu, a 42-year trucker who had been waiting 14 hours. “Last week the line was 7km long.” The record is 17km. It can take up to 30 hours to get through to the other side.

https://www.ft.com/content/b4458652...ONQ5Mya8MeOU8xDKRVn-uxvDM8RLoeUOm8iSumJ7Z5dvg

AM9 · 20 Jan 2019

cactustwirly said:
Rees-Mogg is a stuck up brat, and knows nothing about Brexit! ...

Actually, I think that Mogg does understand the situation and just wants the maximum amount of chaos in markets. He is very wealthy - north of £100m, lives off hedge funds amongst other things, lives in a large house in West Harptree, Somerset but has other properties including in central London, and his company's first reaction to the referendum result was to move much of their funds into the Eurozone. As a speculator, he just wants there to be major seismic movements in sterling (either way would enable him to make large gains) whatever damage it did to the UK economy (and of course the majority of its population who can't shuffle large amounts of capital around to dodge the losses).
He is toxic to everybody, (except his own kind of course!).

nidave · 20 Jan 2019

Oh look May is going to defy the sovereign vote in parliament (I bet she is doing this without the slightest trace of irony) and have another go at getting her deal though - she is also going to try and bypass the EU. Typical British way - divide and (try to) rule)

Theresa May will launch a fresh bid to win support for her rejected Brexit deal by trying to bypass the European Union and secure a bilateral Brexit treaty with Ireland, according to reports.

The move, which comes as No 10 expresses extreme concern at a backbench bid to give parliament control of Brexit, would see the UK try to convince Ireland to agree a plan for keeping the Northern Ireland border open after Britain leaves the EU.

Not a chance in hell she is going to go behind the EU's back and it gets agreed by Ireland and the seem to agree.

Simon Coveney, the Irish foreign minister, wrote on Twitter: “As Brexit dominates news coverage, no surprise that some analysis today gets it wrong. I can reassure you the Irish government’s commitment to the entire [withdrawal agreement] is absolute – including the backstop to ensure, no matter what, an open border between Ireland + NI and the [Good Friday Agreement] are protected.”

The latest twist comes as a cross-party group of backbenchers prepares to try to amend whatever plan Ms May puts forward in order to give parliament the right to seize control of Brexit.

The proposal, led by former attorney general Dominic Grieve, would remove the government’s power to choose what parliament debates and instead prioritise any motion backed by 300 MPs from at least five parties – significantly less than a Commons majority.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...land-parliament-commons-control-a8737306.html

EM2 · 20 Jan 2019

When Liam Fox said he could replicate our existing 40 trade deals (via EU) with countries like South Korea, Switzerland, Turkey etc by “one second after midnight” at the end of March 2019, cynical me thought that what Fox would do would be cross out 'EU' in all of those deals, and just write 'UK', and then say to all the relevant other parties 'Happy with that?'. Now it seems that he's not even bright enough to have thought of something so simple.

nidave · 20 Jan 2019

(Reuters) - British Prime Minister Theresa May is considering solving the Brexit deadlock by amending the Good Friday agreement after abandoning attempts to negotiate a cross-party deal, the Daily Telegraph reported late on Sunday.

May's Good Friday plan would see the UK and Ireland agree a separate set of principles or add text to "support or reference" the 1998 peace deal setting out how both sides would guarantee an open border after Brexit, the newspaper reported.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/may-consi...deal-solve-brexit-221745604.html?guccounter=1

Not sure you can do that love - its an international treaty ratified by the UN - ignoring that Ireland might have something to say about it and would have to agree. The UK trying to dictate to other countries. Funny that - I thought it was the EU dictating to the UK - could it be that was incorrect.

AM9 · 20 Jan 2019

nidave said:
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/may-consi...deal-solve-brexit-221745604.html?guccounter=1

Not sure you can do that love - its an international treaty ratified by the UN - ignoring that Ireland might have something to say about it and would have to agree. The UK trying to dictate to other countries. Funny that - I thought it was the EU dictating to the UK - could it be that was incorrect.

Meanwhile, a car bomb is detonated by what isbelieved to be the 'New IRA'. Is that just a reminder about life before the GFA (as well as the ongoing call for a united Ireland_?

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