Muttley
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This'll be good; seeing as Brexit hasn't happened, how you gonna explain this Dave ?
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EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...
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AlterEgo
Veteran Member
I very much hope you aren’t using a car bomb to make a point, so I’ll just answer the question: No.
trash80
Established Member
Violence in NI didn't stop after the GFA as many people now lacking their kneecaps will tell you.
Not at all, however I can't remember the last time such an action was reported, can you?
The issue is... is this a one off or are things starting to descend into trouble.
The IRA once said 1 bomb in England is worth 10 in N. Ireland as it is more wildly covered.
Growing up I was in or close to about 170 odd bomb scares but only about 50 ish went off in my time.
Yes but as said previously how many terrorists attacks have there been in mainland UK since the GFA?
The issues in NI (as have been pointed out) have not gone away - but they are very much diminished. Its mainly over drugs and smuggling - its gangs (or at least was)
How many stabbings have there been in London recently - how many gangs on mopeds have been attacking motorcycle riders.. how many acid attacks have there been - There are always going to be people who want to cause damage and hurt others. Its due to the lack of policing resource. An IRA faction coming back is different but have to see if its just a one off or if they have access to anything more serious.
the GFA did more for peace in N. Ireland than anything before it - way you and others dismiss it is an insult to those who were caught up in horrific attacks and those (on both sides) that lost their lives. Its also dismissive of those that voted for it (like me) to make things better.
trash80
Established Member
Oh get off your high horse, insult blah blah. i was just pointing out that just because its not reported there is still a lot of violence in NI. The GFA has improved things greatly but its not a nirvana.
AlterEgo
Veteran Member
A bomb in Northern Ireland?
Lets just scrap the GFA shall we that's the answer.
trash80
Established Member
Funny i thought all my dozens of posts in this thread over the last few years where i have supported Remain (with reservations) would have indicated i would not want that. Maybe i've just wasted my time here...
OK, as this is a text conversation I'll add emphasis to indicate what I mean:
Not at all, however I can't remember the last time such an action was reported [in the mainstream GB press], can you?
It's more a reflection on the 'not our problem' stance of the TV and printed media here in England.
However as others have since posted, all of this talk about the GFA may have given those that are missing reading about their misdemeanours in UK papers and seeing video of them on national news. Or maybe there's even more to it, but from my limited understanding, the 'New IRA' might prefer that the GFA collapses.
trash80
Established Member
There have been incidents though not as many as in the past of course, a quick search of the Gruniad yielded this example from 2017
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/nov/12/bomb-alert-remembrance-sunday-omagh
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/nov/12/bomb-alert-remembrance-sunday-omagh
Can everyone taking part in this debate please ensure their posts are reasonably respectful; of course this is an emotive subject but some comments are risking stepping over the line of what is acceptable.
Also just a reminder that if any post causes concern, our rules ask that you report the post. Please do not react to, refer to or re-publish any content that you think should be considered for removal. Thanks.
Also just a reminder that if any post causes concern, our rules ask that you report the post. Please do not react to, refer to or re-publish any content that you think should be considered for removal. Thanks.
AlterEgo
Veteran Member
At least weekly on the BBC, if you consume the news via their app and choose to read about stories from across the UK’s regions.
A good question to ask is “what does the GFA collapsing look like and how will we know if and when it has collapsed?”
There hasn’t been a functioning assembly in Northern Ireland for over two years and there are no First Ministers in post.
Geezertronic
Established Member
I think that can apply to a lot of the politicians, previous and existing, who either have a strong inclination to Remain or Leave depending on what option is in their own best interests rather than the rest of us as a whole
Howardh
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In an hour's time May seems to be returning to parliament with plan B which is plan A, which did really well, didn't it? Anyhow, facsinating the poll that says 20-odd percent of voters think no-deal means we will be remaining. Thought are that "Tomeh's" yellow-bibs - on learning there's no deal - will be marching on Westminster demanding we leave the EU and keep the referendum promise. "Er, we have".
Should be fun.
Should be fun.
From my limited knowledge of the NI position, some of the leaving scenarios may well undermine the open border situation unless there are serious changes in what the EU may allow at it's extremities.It may be that that could trigger a general breakdown of the agreement by the few who would be quite happy to see it removed. Just as speculators love economic chaos, I'm sure that terrorists are quite happy to see public order break down. I personally don't know how relevant that would be in NI.
Howardh
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The EU won't allow any serious changes at it's external borders, unless the country concerned stays within the custom's union at least, so that country will have to limit it's imports to EU approval/standards so nothing against EU rules gains entry.
If they allowed one open border - the UK/RoI one, then anything from the US, China, India etc could get into the UK and then across that border and therefore be a threat to the single market - not to mention standards, security and whatever. One solution would be for the UK to not allow any imports that fail EU regulations; which would mean why leave?
I doubt very much the EU would budge unless the UK fell into line.
In addition to my not wanting the UK to be driven by a union flag waving load of bigots, it is a comforting thought that even if that does happen, the UK might be forced to apply the product and service standards that we have benefited from over the last 30-40 years. None of this right-wing 51st state cheapest-at-all-cost tripe.
Giugiaro
Member
That... is...
GENIUS!!!
To whoever had the idea of selling "No Deal" as a remain option:
thenorthern
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According to some reports tonight Jeremy Corbyn may now back a second referendum.
I hope not as too many of the people calling for it don't realise that second referendum doesn't automatically mean remaining in the European Union. If there was a second vote I think leave would win by a bigger margin as people forget its not just a snap poll (like how opinion polls are done) there would have to be several weeks/months of campaigning and many of the advantages that the remain campaign had in 2016 would not happen this time.
I hope not as too many of the people calling for it don't realise that second referendum doesn't automatically mean remaining in the European Union. If there was a second vote I think leave would win by a bigger margin as people forget its not just a snap poll (like how opinion polls are done) there would have to be several weeks/months of campaigning and many of the advantages that the remain campaign had in 2016 would not happen this time.
Equally though the leave campaign would have to actually campaign on a solid idea of what leave actually means, not just a wishy-washy "brexit means brexit" stance where one minute they can be telling business there's no chance of leaving the customs union and the next telling people on the street that we need to get away from everything the EU stands for.
Leave only won in the first place because nobody could actually define what leaving meant, if they had then many leavers would have gone with "but what we currently have is better" - e.g. businesses who want less red tape but tariff free access to the continent, or socialists who want better workers rights and not some sort of off shore tax haven.
Who'd have thought we'd still be arguing two and a half years later, after submitting our withdrawal notice, about what leaving actually means!?
The problem is because "leave" was so poorly defined the hard Brexiters will claim that they meant "no deal" all along!
Esker-pades
Established Member
But during the 2016 campaign they claimed that ideas of "no deal" were all part of "Project Fear".
thenorthern
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Some good points there about the type of Brexit Vote Leave being a bit vague.
However there are several I think why leave would win again.
However there are several I think why leave would win again.
- The simple fact is the country voted leave in 2016, back then the Government said "This is your decision the Government will implement what you decide". Going against this by holding a second vote would be seen as a betrayal of democracy. Also there would be a number of people who would normally vote remain now vote leave as they respect the result of the first vote.
- Back in 2016 most Conservative MPs but more importantly HM Government officially supported remaining in the EU, in particular HM Government spent £9 million sending a pro-remain leaflet to every house in the country. If there was a second vote HM Government would either have to not endorse remain or admit that it's been deliberately following a disastrous policy for the past 2 years that it didn't have faith in. Similarly if Tory MPs were to endorse remain a second time it would make it look like "father knows best" to Tory voters most of whom voted leave in 2016.
- Many of the predictions from 2016 turned out to be false such as George Osborne promising an emergency budget and an immediate recession in the event of a leave vote. Neither of these happened and instead the FTSE 100 has reached a record high, there is record employment levels and unemployment is at its lowest levels since 1975. Remain would have to argue against these things in a second vote and would have to water down the gloomy financial predictions.
- EU policy wasn't working for everyone 2016 for example fishermen or steelworkers and there has been little change and reform of the EU since the vote in 2016 so there is little incentive for people who felt this in 2016 to now vote remain.
- As leave is the incumbent position it is facing "midterm blues" whereby the incumbent position becomes unpopular as its supporters don't need to defend it until it comes to a public vote again. This is not uncommon as remember governing parties normally do badly in the local elections that happen between general elections but normally bounce back somewhat in time for the next general election.
Puffing Devil
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A few observations.
1) Yes the leaflet did say that the government would implement the decision. Unfortunately, "Leave means Leave" meant many different things and was sold in many different ways, The government needs to be honest that this was a mistake and many people voted for leave, believing that they were voting for different things; some never believing that we would leave and that it was a protest. Plenty of posters here say they knew what they were voting for - good for them. Plenty who don't post on here did not. Many were lied to (bus anyone? Turkey joining the EU and millions flooding in).
2) We would need our politicians to be honest and say what they really feel, rather than simply trying to stay in power. Mrs May, I'm looking at you here for a start.
3) The economic collapse has not been as swift as expected, though it is now well on its way. Output has dropped, growth has dropped, the pound is on its knees, companies are leaving. And the employment figures are a sham - a zero hours contract is not a job.
4) Fishing declined with the cod war. It's not the fault of the EU. Yes, we have ceded our fishing rights - the truth is we did not traditionally fish there anyway; most of the fleet was deep water around Iceland. Also, as a nation, we do not eat what we catch. We export most of the fish landed to Europe. If we kick out the foreign fisherfolk we may well find that the market for our new found fish also closes up - remember we don't have a trade deal.
5) Leaving the EU was never a big thing until the referendum - it was an annoyance in UKIP and mainly for the Tories. It's gone from a minor concern, behind jobs and the NHS to a full on issue dividing the country. It's going to take years to recover from this clusterfeck.
DynamicSpirit
Established Member
This turned up in my Facebook feed yesterday. I'm not sure where it's from, but to my mind, it very accurately sums up the fundamental flaw with the 2016 referendum.
AlterEgo
Veteran Member
The longer the Brexit farce goes on, the more I lose faith in the concept of universal suffrage democracy.
The political class are so out of touch with how most ordinary people live it’s no wonder we are in this mess with little hope of getting out of it.
The political class are so out of touch with how most ordinary people live it’s no wonder we are in this mess with little hope of getting out of it.
DarloRich
Veteran Member
any many of the electorate are poorly educated and unable to understand the concepts involved! We are in a mess.
I offer myself as supreme overlord.
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