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Newport West MP dies, by-election due

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PR1Berske

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Veteran Labour MP Paul Flynn has died. He had a majority of just over 5,500 at the last election. A by-election is expected in due course.

Source: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-47274312
Source: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-40643614
Quote:
In the summer of 2016 Labour party leader Jeremy Corbyn faced a wave of shadow cabinet resignations in protest at his leadership and calls for him to resign.

Paul Flynn wrote on his blog: "It's a disgrace that political parties are playing self-indulgent games with orchestrated resignations on the hour as part of an organised treachery."

In the reshuffle that followed he became shadow leader of the house, and shadow Welsh secretary.

He joked that his appointment was part of a "diversity project" to promote "octogenarians".
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Image shows the result at the 2017 general election

ujzBCML.png


This image shows:

Paul Flynn (Labour) 22,723 (52.3%, +11.1)
Angela-Jones Evans (Conservative) 17,065 (39.3%. +6.8)
Stan Edwards (UKIP) 1,100 (2.5%, -12.7)
Morgan Bowler-Brown (Plaid Cymru) 1,077 (2.5, -1.5)
Sarah Lockyear (Liberal Democrat) 976 (2.2%. -1.7)
Pippa Bartolotti (Green) 497, (1.1% -2.0)


Given the circumstances and position of British politics of late, I suspect we are looking at a safe Labour hold. But time will tell.
 
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Typhoon

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A decent politician - his speeches were actually listenable, with a degree of humour and, from what I gather, a sound constituency MP.
 
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Ken H

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najaB said:
I'd be very surprised to see this seat flip.
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it has been Tory before, till 1997

Will the split in labour affect the result if the new party put up a candidate? If Labour put up a remainer then that could hit the labour vote.

The constituency isn't just Newport. It contains some prosperous countryside, and the small town of Caerleon.

And will may kick the can down the road on moving the by-election writ, as she wont want an election while trying to get her WA pushed through?
 
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Typhoon

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Ken H said:
And will may kick the can down the road on moving the by-election writ, as she wont want an election while trying to get her WA pushed through?
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I thought the writ was normally moved by the party who the deceased represented? Now that is an interesting quandary for Mr Corbyn given todays defections.

Now, Mrs May may well want a by-election to turn attention away from March 29th (I believe it is also possible for other to move the writ).
 
Busaholic

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I read last week (i.e. before his death) that someone named Ruth Jones was expected to be Labour's candidate at the next election. I believe she may be known by some in a different sphere.
 
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Busaholic said:
I read last week (i.e. before his death) that someone named Ruth Jones was expected to be Labour's candidate at the next election. I believe she may be known by some in a different sphere.
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Tidy!
 
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Typhoon

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Busaholic said:
I'm glad to see that. I don't like 'celebrities' being candidates.
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I would have thought that the right candidate in the right place is fine. I reckon that Glenda Jackson was a pretty effective MP - and clearly dedicated to the task. There can also be a fine line between celebrity and politician - it could be argued that Boris Johnson is a 'celebrity' (long time columnist and author as well as his TV appearances).

However, having a candidate who has long time experience of the health service can only be a good thing. If enough MPs from all sides of the house actually understood what they were legislating on we might avoid some of the catastrophes that have occurred (Lansley reforms?). Now, if only we had some MPs who understood transport!
 
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Typhoon said:
However, having a candidate who has long time experience of the health service can only be a good thing. If enough MPs from all sides of the house actually understood what they were legislating on we might avoid some of the catastrophes that have occurred (Lansley reforms?). Now, if only we had some MPs who understood transport!
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Sarah Wollaston, former GP, selected as Tory candidate for Totnes by the unusual method of a primary election open to all voters. Rebelled against various Cameron proposals and changed her mind to support Remain in the light of the behaviour of the Leave campaign. Now reported to be contemplating leaving the Tory party.

One of the few current politicians I have any sort of respect for.
 
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edwin_m said:
Sarah Wollaston, former GP, selected as Tory candidate for Totnes by the unusual method of a primary election open to all voters.
One of the few current politicians I have any sort of respect for.
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I'm not surprised. As chair of the Health Select Committee she asks intelligent, searching, unbiased questions. As an insider she actually knows how much of the health service works and uses this constructively, unlike some other MPs who trot out a load of effluent which civil servants/ special advisors/ PR merchants told them about half an hour ago. Maybe, if Ms Jones is elected, they will be able to hold those to account who claim everything is alright/ we just need to throw money at the problem/ its just an isolated incident, etc.

If that method of identifying a candidate was used more widely, we might get fewer MPs who have never done a real job in their lives.
 
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PR1Berske

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Today the Statement of Persons Nominated was published, summarised below.

Think it's worth saying that this is one of those by-election contests where the defending party has nothing to worry about. Nothing to indicate a surprise here.

Anyway, the official candidates are:


Jonathan Clark (Plaid)
June Davis (Renew)
Matthew Evans (Conservative)
Neil Hamilton (UKIP)
Ruth Jones (Labour)
Ryan Jones (Liberal Democrat)
Ian McLean (SDP)
Hugh Nicklin (For Britain)
Richard Suchorzewski (Abolish the Welsh Assembly)
Philip Taylor (Democrats and Veterans)
Amelia Womack (Green)
 
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Ken H

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PR1Berske said:
Today the Statement of Persons Nominated was published, summarised below.

Think it's worth saying that this is one of those by-election contests where the defending party has nothing to worry about. Nothing to indicate a surprise here.

Anyway, the official candidates are:


Jonathan Clark (Plaid)
June Davis (Renew)
Matthew Evans (Conservative)
Neil Hamilton (UKIP)
Ruth Jones (Labour)
Ryan Jones (Liberal Democrat)
Ian McLean (SDP)
Hugh Nicklin (For Britain)
Richard Suchorzewski (Abolish the Welsh Assembly)
Philip Taylor (Democrats and Veterans)
Amelia Womack (Green)
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Nothing from Chuka Umunnas mob? Not really credible are they?
 
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PR1Berske

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Ken H said:
Nothing from Chuka Umunnas mob? Not really credible are they?
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I don't want to give the TIGgers any credit, I really don't, though it's worth noting that under current electoral legislation, they are not a registered political party, so cannot stand for election yet.
 
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Typhoon

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PR1Berske said:
I don't want to give the TIGgers any credit, I really don't, though it's worth noting that under current electoral legislation, they are not a registered political party, so cannot stand for election yet.
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An individual could stand as an independent stating that they support the aims of The Independent Group, couldn't they?

SDP - now that really is harking back to the past.
 
Busaholic

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Typhoon said:
An individual could stand as an independent stating that they support the aims of The Independent Group, couldn't they?

SDP - now that really is harking back to the past.
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As is Neil Hamilton: where's Martin Bell when you need him? :lol:
 
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anme

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Ken H said:
Will the split in labour affect the result if the new party put up a candidate? If Labour put up a remainer then that could hit the labour vote.
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Maybe, maybe not. Even in a "leave" seat, and even assuming people would consider this such an important issue that it would change their vote, what actually matters is how many *labour voters* voted leave and remain, not the overall result in the seat.

It's a bit of a myth that labour will lose a lot of "leave" seats in the north, etc, if they turn more against brexit. Even in those seats which were majority leave, the strong leave supporters who really care about this were mostly not voting labour anyway.
 
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Ken H

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anme said:
Maybe, maybe not. Even in a "leave" seat, and even assuming people would consider this such an important issue that it would change their vote, what actually matters is how many *labour voters* voted leave and remain, not the overall result in the seat.

It's a bit of a myth that labour will lose a lot of "leave" seats in the north, etc, if they turn more against brexit. Even in those seats which were majority leave, the strong leave supporters who really care about this were mostly not voting labour anyway.
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how do you know? it was a secret ballot.
 
DynamicSpirit

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Ken H said:
Nothing from Chuka Umunnas mob? Not really credible are they?
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That's scraping the barrel a bit for criticism. They've only set up within the last couple of weeks. As others have pointed out, they are not yet a political party. It takes time to get a reasonable organisation on the ground from nothing.

If in - say - two years time there was a by-election and there was no word from the Independent Group (or whatever they are called by that time) about standing in it - then I'd agree that they wouldn't be showing much credibility.
 
DynamicSpirit

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Ken H said:
how do you know? it was a secret ballot.
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There are such things as opinion polls and voter surveys etc. you know! Ever since the referendum, they have shown a clear picture of the vast majority of Labour voters being remain supporters, and the vast majority of Tory voters being leave supporters. There's really no reasonable doubt that most people who vote Labour - even in Northern leave-supporting constituencies - are remain supporters.
 
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Ken H

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DynamicSpirit said:
There are such things as opinion polls and voter surveys etc. you know! Ever since the referendum, they have shown a clear picture of the vast majority of Labour voters being remain supporters, and the vast majority of Tory voters being leave supporters. There's really no reasonable doubt that most people who vote Labour - even in Northern leave-supporting constituencies - are remain supporters.
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they will be the pollsters who predicted a remain result then. polls paid for by a remaining press. so they produce the result the commissioner dictates.
 
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Ken H

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DynamicSpirit said:
That's scraping the barrel a bit for criticism. They've only set up within the last couple of weeks. As others have pointed out, they are not yet a political party. It takes time to get a reasonable organisation on the ground from nothing.

If in - say - two years time there was a by-election and there was no word from the Independent Group (or whatever they are called by that time) about standing in it - then I'd agree that they wouldn't be showing much credibility.
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come on. how long does it take to find a candidate, nominate him and pay the deposit? 5 grand looks a bargain for the PR value alone.
 
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