• Our booking engine at tickets.railforums.co.uk (powered by TrainSplit) helps support the running of the forum with every ticket purchase! Find out more and ask any questions/give us feedback in this thread!

EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

Status
Not open for further replies.
Joined
9 Jul 2011
Messages
777
The pound was rising quite rapidly the other morning on the news that improved terms had been achieved. Rapidly falling back to where it was, once news got out about what the attorney general’s letter contained.
Had real and substantive changes been achieved and the HoC’s voted in favour of May’s/EU deal, the pound would almost certainly continued to rise due to the improved degree of certainty.

A reversal of Brexit and remain will introduce its own uncertainty.
Nothing is clear cut.
 
Sponsor Post - registered members do not see these adverts; click here to register, or click here to log in
R

RailUK Forums

edwin_m

Veteran Member
Joined
21 Apr 2013
Messages
24,884
Location
Nottingham
It's boring me now.

A majority of MPs don't accept we voted out and appear to do whatever they can to try and force another referendum on whether we're in or out.
I don't understand this and the reluctance to accept the result of the first vote.

Remaining shouldn't be an option.
Boris and other brexiteers have said that May's deal is worse than remaining. Clearly they have changed their minds since the referendum when they saw what was on offer. So why is the view of the public assumed to be unchanged in nearly three years?

Something proponents of a second referendum need to consider, apart from the fact it may result in another vote to leave, or no clear result, is that a vote to remain will not return us to the status quo before June 2016.
The UK is allowed to withdraw the Article 50 notification unilaterally during the two-year period and I assume also during any extension to that period (but the extension requires agreement of all EU states). Legally speaking things then revert to the status quo including the UK's opt-outs, although I agree the country would have lost a great deal of credibility. The loss of these opt-outs happens if we leave the EU under any deal or none, and subsequently apply to re-join.
 

EM2

Established Member
Joined
16 Nov 2008
Messages
7,522
Location
The home of the concrete cow
I am reminded of the comment by Lord Lisvane:
'Indulge me for a moment, my Lords. It is as though I have three elderly and extremely nervous aunts of whom I am very fond. I decide to give them a treat and ask them to discuss what they would like to do. They have a discussion and arrive at a democratic solution, which is that they would like to go to the cinema tomorrow. I look in the local paper and discover that the only films on offer are “Reservoir Dogs” and “The Texas Chainsaw Massacre”. What am I going to say to my highly nervous—indeed, squeamish—but much-loved aunts: “You must stick with your democratic decision”? Or do I say, “Now you know what’s on offer, what do you think?”?'
 
Joined
9 Jul 2011
Messages
777
....Legally speaking things then revert to the status quo including the UK's opt-outs...

You are missing that the EU in on a road of constant evolution of its constitution, rules and goals, moving towards “ever greater union”, i.e. federalism.
The calls for reform are heavily weighted towards the federalist aims and the big players in the game are almost all of that persuasion.

As David Campbell’s “concessions (remember them) were never ratified and are now effectively defunct, the UK is not immune from future reforms or decisions that go against it own national interests.
It’s arguable that it would not have been immune in the long run, regardless.

For example, there are moves to include non-eurozone members in being equally liable (with the euro-zone members) for bailing out the euro, because the debt burden is so high.

Qualified majority voting comes in soon and removes invidual members veto in almost all matters, other than defence and foreign policy.
The intention is that those two areas will lose veto rights in due course as the EU defence force and its associated ministry are established, which will lead to removal of defence provision and policy from the remit of individual states.
Also, there is an ambition for the union to establish its own central foreign policy regime, superceding that of the individual member states.

These changes are not simple enhanced cooperation between member states, but transfer of total authority to the EU institutions.

There’s a whole lot of reading on policy to ultimately transfer “competencies “ from individual member states to central control .
This is not fantasy or science fiction.

At the moment there is slow progress on such matters, but it’s coming in due course unless something interrupts and changes the fundamental ambitions of federalism.
 
Last edited:

zuriblue

Member
Joined
12 Oct 2014
Messages
534
Location
Baden Switzerland
I wonder what you all make of this behaviour

Carole Cadwallader said:

Cadwallader is alleging that Aaron Banks and Nigel Farage have met with Italian Lega leader Matteo Salvini to get an agreement that Italy will veto any attempt by the UK to extend A50. In addition she reports that several Tory MPs have travelled to Poland to persuade the Polish Law and Justice party to do the same.

This seems to be conspiring with a foreign power to damage the interests of the UK. As far as I know there's a word for that, one beginning with T that leavers love to scream at those who disagree with them.
 
Last edited:

Groningen

Established Member
Joined
14 Jan 2015
Messages
2,866
It is interesting to see that all UK forum members think about the UK things. Nothing from the EU point of view. But then keep believing in Brexit.
 

EM2

Established Member
Joined
16 Nov 2008
Messages
7,522
Location
The home of the concrete cow
Philip Hammond in the Commons earlier:
“Leaving with no deal would mean significant disruption in the short and medium-term and a smaller, less prosperous economy in the long-term, than if we leave with a deal.

“Higher unemployment; lower wages; higher prices in the shops. That is not what the British people voted for in June 2016.“
Some did, apparently.
 

dgl

Established Member
Joined
5 Oct 2014
Messages
2,411
Admittedly it's a non binding, but mp's have rejected by 4 votes a no deal Brexit.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47562995

MPs have voted by 312 to 308 to reject leaving the EU without a withdrawal agreement.

It is not a legally-binding decision - and it does not rule out the UK leaving the EU.

But it means MPs could now get a vote on delaying Brexit.

That vote would take place on Thursday, and if it is passed - and the EU agrees to it - the UK will not leave the EU as planned on 29 March.

MPs are now voting on whether the PM's Brexit plan should be scrapped in favour of a "managed no deal".

The government has tabled its own motion on rejecting a no-deal Brexit on 29 March - but MPs have now voted to reject no-deal under any circumstances.
 
Last edited:
Joined
9 Jul 2011
Messages
777
Admittedly it's a non binding toe but mp have rejected by 4 votes a no deal Brexit.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47562995

I'm absolutely amazed it was this close.
Only 2 members needed to cross to the opposite lobby and it would have been a tie.
3 members and it was no deal Brexit.

As you say, it's not binding and doesn't change anything with regard to the current status, unless subsequent legislation is passed to suspend or amend the date of leaving.

The EU stance is apparently firming up.
Sign the deal on the table, or no deal.

EDIT: I had only just got home after a 250 mile drive, when I read that news. Seems I was a bit hasty. Apologies folks.



y
 
Last edited:

dosxuk

Established Member
Joined
2 Jan 2011
Messages
1,760
I'm absolutely amazed it was this close.
Only 2 members needed to cross to the opposite lobby and it would have been a tie.

It wasn't that close. The 4 vote margin was for an amendment to require no-deal to be removed in all circumstances. The Government lost that, so removed the free vote from the actual motion, put in a three line whip to force their entire party to vote against their own motion, and then lost that vote by 43 votes.

Expectations of several resignations to come from ministers who voted against the whip.
 

EM2

Established Member
Joined
16 Nov 2008
Messages
7,522
Location
The home of the concrete cow
Yesterday, the PM's position was 'her deal'. That was defeated, and she offered her MPs a free vote on 'no deal'.
Then she decided against that, and to whip against her own position from yesterday and lost *again*.
The Prime Minister is now so weak that she can’t even defeat the Prime Minister.
 

philabos

Member
Joined
19 May 2010
Messages
180
Location
Lancaster PA
Help me understand.
Parliament voted to reject the EU deal, then voted not to leave without a deal.
But that is non binding?
Does that mean May can pull the plug on March 29?
Or if she does nothing the UK is out without a deal that Parliament now opposes?
 

dosxuk

Established Member
Joined
2 Jan 2011
Messages
1,760
So tomorrows vote is now to ask the Government to seek an extension, either of a short term if they have approved May's deal, or a longer one which the EU won't accept and will require us to hold european elections in May.

Andrea Leadsom is currently trying to argue that her own paperwork doesn't say parliament have to approve May's deal to get the short extension.
 

Jonny

Established Member
Joined
10 Feb 2011
Messages
2,562
OK, so...
Proposed deal rejected.
No deal rejected whatever.
If there's no A50 extension, then there must be A50 revocation.

There would be major bother if that happened. It would end up being a massive recruitment sergeant for the far right.
 

Giugiaro

Member
Joined
4 Nov 2011
Messages
1,129
Location
Valongo - Portugal
Guys, look it on the bright side:

You could revoke article 50 now and invoke it again after EU elections and parliament re-elections.
And do it all over again for at least 5 more years!
 

Ianno87

Veteran Member
Joined
3 May 2015
Messages
15,215
There would be major bother if that happened. It would end up being a massive recruitment sergeant for the far right.

Nonsense argument. We should never be afraid of standing up and not being intimidated by the far right.
 

simonw

Member
Joined
7 Dec 2009
Messages
781
Help me understand.
Parliament voted to reject the EU deal, then voted not to leave without a deal.
But that is non binding?
Does that mean May can pull the plug on March 29?
Or if she does nothing the UK is out without a deal that Parliament now opposes?
She can't pull the plug in her own, she would need parliament to agree as the law is we leave on 29 March. It is a mess. A model of how failing to plan means planning to fail.
 

philabos

Member
Joined
19 May 2010
Messages
180
Location
Lancaster PA
She can't pull the plug in her own, she would need parliament to agree as the law is we leave on 29 March. It is a mess. A model of how failing to plan means planning to fail.
Thank you.
It appears she can now go on holiday and unless Parliament changes the law, UK would be out on that date?
 

Busaholic

Veteran Member
Joined
7 Jun 2014
Messages
14,078
May: Oh yes, the, uh, my Brexit deal...What's, uh...What's wrong with it?

Westminster: I'll tell you what's wrong with it, Prime Minister. Its dead, that's what's wrong with it!

May: No, no, its uh,...its resting.

Westminster: Look, matey, I know a dead deal when I see one, and I'm looking at one right now.

May: No no its not dead, its, its restin'! Remarkable deal, my Brexit deal, idn'it, ay? Beautiful backstop agreement!

Mr. Praline: The backstop don't enter into it. It's stone dead.

Owner: Nononono, no, no! its resting!

Etc, etc......
Very good, but you should have got in the highly-appropriate-in-the-circumstances Norwegian Blue option there somewhere :lol:
 
Joined
9 Jul 2011
Messages
777
It wasn't that close. The 4 vote margin was for an amendment to require no-deal to be removed in all circumstances. The Government lost that, so removed the free vote from the actual motion, put in a three line whip to force their entire party to vote against their own motion, and then lost that vote by 43 votes.

Expectations of several resignations to come from ministers who voted against the whip.

Seems I was a bit hasty.
I had only just got home after a 250 mile drive, when I read that news from the post above mine.
Sorry about that.


y
 

dosxuk

Established Member
Joined
2 Jan 2011
Messages
1,760
So it's now sounding like May's deal will be back in the common's on monday or tuesday next week for another attempt at getting it past parliament. Although now with the added fun of the ERG being at war with each other after Steve Baker (deputy chair of the group) stated they will never vote for the deal regardless of how many times she brings it back.

Oh and just to liven things up a little more, that nice Mr Farage is [also] busy going round lobbying other EU members to veto any extension request we might make.

Starting to wonder if the best thing might be to withdraw from Article 50, disband parliament and all the current political parties, sack every MP and full-time party employee and just start from scratch and see if we get a better bunch of people able to do any better. It could hardly be any worse than where we are now.
 

Jonny

Established Member
Joined
10 Feb 2011
Messages
2,562
Nonsense argument. We should never be afraid of standing up and not being intimidated by the far right.

As things stand, it isn't just the far right who want a clean (if not hard) Brexit.... A clean or hard Brexit, Conservative-led, will be just the ticket to cut off the fuel for the real far right. If you want to see how being in the EU provokes nationalism, take a look at Eastern Europe, especially Poland and Hungary. Also, the far left are a greater threat as they are potentially electable in the current climate, let's face it there are no far right MPs but the likes of John McDonnell, the Shadow Chancellor, are far left extremists.

Of far greater concern is the apparent tendency of the authorities to go out of their way to appease a certain section of the population that self-segregates along religious lines based on a so-called prophet from 6th/7th century Arabia.
 

Ianno87

Veteran Member
Joined
3 May 2015
Messages
15,215
Oh and just to liven things up a little more, that nice Mr Farage is [also] busy going round lobbying other EU members to veto any extension request we might make.

Taking back control, innit?

Starting to wonder if the best thing might be to withdraw from Article 50, disband parliament and all the current political parties, sack every MP and full-time party employee and just start from scratch and see if we get a better bunch of people able to do any better. It could hardly be any worse than where we are now

A bit harsh. Instead, lets just sack every MP that this evening voted to leave No Deal on the table - prepared to play reckless games with the country to honor a questionable 3 year old referendum result.
 

Jonny

Established Member
Joined
10 Feb 2011
Messages
2,562
Also, if you've been paying attention recently you might have noticed that youth unemployment is sky high in many EU states (what "bright future in Europe?" ???), France is verging on revolt at Mr Macron's near-autocratic rule, Germany is on the knife-edge of a recession (a hard Brexit would hurt them more and for longer) to the extent that it would be fair to say that the EU is basically about to go up in flames anyway.
 

DynamicSpirit

Established Member
Joined
12 Apr 2012
Messages
8,109
Location
SE London
As things stand, it isn't just the far right who want a clean (if not hard) Brexit.... A clean or hard Brexit, Conservative-led, will be just the ticket to cut off the fuel for the real far right. If you want to see how being in the EU provokes nationalism, take a look at Eastern Europe, especially Poland and Hungary. Also, the far left are a greater threat as they are potentially electable in the current climate, let's face it there are no far right MPs but the likes of John McDonnell, the Shadow Chancellor, are far left extremists.

What? So we should go ahead with Brexit in order to appease the far right? As reasons for Brexit go, that has to be one of the silliest.

And I'm not a great fan of McDonnell, but to describe him as a far left extremist is pretty absurd.
 

DynamicSpirit

Established Member
Joined
12 Apr 2012
Messages
8,109
Location
SE London
Also, if you've been paying attention recently you might have noticed that youth unemployment is sky high in many EU states (what "bright future in Europe?" ???), France is verging on revolt at Mr Macron's near-autocratic rule, Germany is on the knife-edge of a recession (a hard Brexit would hurt them more and for longer) to the extent that it would be fair to say that the EU is basically about to go up in flames anyway.

France very often seems to be verging on revolt at something. Macron is not autocratic (at least no more than any other French president in a system that does gives a lot of power to the presidency). Recessions happen in most countries from time to time, and Germany going into recession (if that happens) is not going to cause the EU is to go up in flames. And - to judge by your last couple of posts here - your grasp on reality seems to be somewhat tenuous.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Top