quantinghome
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Or Transpennine could introduce new trains...
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West Coast on track for 50 million passengers by 2026
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Or Transpennine could introduce new trains...
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Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
You mean like they are doing? I don't think the 5x23m will be enough, though - the story of TPE's life. Nice trains, not enough seats.
quantinghome
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Sorry, yes, that was my point.
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
Fair enough. I think they are either going to have to extend to 7 or 8-car pretty soonish, or order more sets so they can be doubled up. When you offer such a high quality product, people are going to come flocking. It's an unrecognisably massive upgrade from poshed-up suburban DMUs and EMUs that I think they are going to underestimate just how many people they attract. I genuinely can't remember such a significant upgrade on the UK rails in recent years - new stock has mostly been worse than old.
The biggest limitation to expanding the TPE fleet is platform lengths at Manchester Airport and Oxford Road (8 and 6 coaches). The 397s are 5 coaches so that Liverpool and Manchester to Scotland services can be joined and split at Preston if necessary.
Back to the west coast franchise. Ideally they could do with a new 125mph tilting train but with doors at thirds and a layout like the 350s. That would provide extra capacity until HS2 but also be useful afterwards.
LNW-GW Joint
Veteran Member
Last time I looked the walk-on fares (Savers etc) on the WCML followed the same sort of increase as everywhere else.
Advance and TOC-specific fares are still for a minority of passengers.
On some routes (where they do not set the Any Permitted fare - eg North Wales-Manchester), VT will offer you better fares than the other TOC.
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
I'd just get 9-car bi-mode Class 800s for VTWC, to be honest. Tilt saves surprisingly little time, particularly if they were concentrated onto the North Wales diagrams.
Repeating the same lie like Donald Trump does, does not stop it being a lie. For the millionth time. You can’t make the timetable work without it. One offs are manageable, but regular 110 working would screw the WCML up. I’ve sat behind enough non tilting sets waiting to get past to know this non Tilt thing is a fallacy. I’ll ask you this seeing as you seem to know the WCML so well. How many times have you been checked at Ledburn Jn? That’s the critical point to get the Birmingham LNWRs on/off the fasts. Just one non tilting unit will mess that up and result in the concertina effect that comes from a number of us having to slow down to wait for it all to clear. If everything tilts and the LNWRs run on time. Happy days. If not, you will get checked. Not might. Will.
EPS 125mph running is integral to the capacity and operation of the WCML Fast Lines south of Rugby. Plus a number of diagrams and turnrounds would be bust without it, even though the time saving is relatively small.
The 397 is being tested to have some kind of dispensation to run at EPS as it has been seen to run at 125mph on sections of the WCML during testing according to this TPE driver, perhaps the 800 could be certified for the same dispensation.
Is that not overspeed testing perhaps, i.e. 110mph plus 10%? (i.e. 121mph)
I don't think so, just look at the driver's reply when asked a similar question to your own.
td97
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Comes up in every new VT-related thread. There's feasibility studies ongoing to see what can be achieved between north of Rugeley and Glasgow.
gazthomas
Established Member
It is amazing to think that they've been in use for 17 or so years!
Yes, makes me feel old !
I agree that tilt is a necessity, which is why I am doubtful that the West Coast Partnership will receive new stock unless the extension to run the first HS2 services is granted. If new trains are ordered then doors at thirds would be important for future use running services with extra stops after HS2. Maybe 12+ for London-Birmingham-Scotland to get rid of half of the Voyagers and free up some Pendolinos to run more services.
Class 170101
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Is it also the case there are fewer London to Glasgow flights (especially Gatwick and Heathrow) to allow take off and landing slots at London Airports to be used for destinations elsewhere like China, India, Hong Kong, Japan, USA etc?
If 125mph non-EPS speed becomes allowed in passenger service then presumably an overspeed test will need to be carried out of upto about 138mph somewhere? Presumably Trent Valley?
The Glasgow numbers were interesting. Back when I was a lad in short trousers and a BR payroll number, I was given a task of surveying every London-Glasgow day train on the WCML to count passengers (we were checking ORCATs because Intercity East Coast were trying it on).
Delving deep into the memory banks from 26 (gulp!) years ago, I seem to remember the average was around 50-70 London to Scotland passengers per train. This was with about 8 trains a day each way. Therefore in the intervening quarter of a century (double gulp), knocking an hour off the journey time, doubling the frequency and reducing the real price of average fares has more than doubled passenger numbers. Feels about right.
Delving deep into the memory banks from 26 (gulp!) years ago, I seem to remember the average was around 50-70 London to Scotland passengers per train. This was with about 8 trains a day each way. Therefore in the intervening quarter of a century (double gulp), knocking an hour off the journey time, doubling the frequency and reducing the real price of average fares has more than doubled passenger numbers. Feels about right.
Yes there has been a reduction in slots for UK flights at Heathrow in recent years. BA bought BMI primarily for its landing slots at Heathrow and then used them for long haul flights. Air still has 2/3rds of the Edinburgh/Glasgow to London market though.
Those numbers do highlight the dilemma that the journey needs to be speeded up but the intermediate stops are very important. If new tilting stock is ordered then a London-Preston service (extended northward and to Blackpool when paths are available) running all day, could take Wigan and Warrington calls from the Glasgow service to speed up journey times and free up some seats. A big modal shift won't take place until HS2 reaches Crewe.
Where are the 9 coach units most frequently used?
BA prices have gone up too to LHR , LGW is a bit cheaper.
Do you think there is market for a later train from London to Glasgow?
The current last train is a pretty respectable 1930. Any later would be a very late (or rather, early) arrival at Glasgow Central - I suspect too late for most tastes.
HS2 should improve this - leave Euston later to arrive Glasgow the same time as the current last train.
I think the issue is that a departure at, say, 2030 with an 0100ish arrival would start eating into the sleeper business.
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
I'm not sure that "not eating into the Sleeper business" is a reason not to provide a service passengers want?
I'm not sure it would. I can't help thinking those are two very different markets.
From a service specification point of view, a Department for Transport-specified service (Virgin) would be slightly undermining the revenue of a Transport Scotland-specified one (the Sleeper), it requiring marginally more subsidy as a result.
Dunno - 2030 gives that bit more time for a function/pub after the work business day, so I could see it eating into the small 'attend function then get sleeper back' type market
Esker-pades
Established Member
The 19:36 Edinburgh Waverley to London Kings Cross arrives at ~01:00. I'm not sure how much that eats into the sleeper business.
I live in Greater Manchester so I only use the service north of Wigan. I think the best that be done would be transfering Wigan and Warrington stops if Preston/Blackpool could be more frequent. That would save a few minutes and free up seats. Both north and south bound services finish very late.
Between now and HS2 the priority should be boosting capacity to Liverpool and Preston. Chiltern can provide more London-Birmingham capacity and 3tph should be adequate for Manchester. Liverpool is short changed and Preston and Blackpool extras could be used to remove stops from Glasgow services. There is probably only one 1 path per hour that could be used and thats assuming the Grand Central services never start.
Unfortunately I just can't see another tilting rolling stock order happening. It would need to be a small bespoke order and only two manufacturers that could bid for it. Manchester services will disappear in 2026. At that point half of the Voyagers could go, with rest running Chester/Holyhead services. It makes sense to use Pendolinos on the WCML services after HS2 because they exist but is it worth ordering an expensive bespoke fleet that won't be very suitable long term? HS2 to Crewe removes the oppertunity to use tilting units on other services such as Glasgow, Edinburgh, Liverpool and Manchester to Birmingham. After HS2 completion the only services that will need tilting stock to be viable will be the London-Wales services. London-Chester services don't need to be hourly from phase 2a completion. A half hourly shuttle to Crewe for interchange with HS2 would be faster and those that prefer to have a direct service could use the handful of London-Wales services. I guess there is an argument for half a dozen tilting bi modes to keep North Wales - London services for another 30 years but no one will think past 2033 and the Voyagers will do until then.
smtglasgow
Member
The Glasgow-Euston numbers are encouraging, but the real issue with that 50m target for 2026 has to be capacity across the wider WCML. New stock seems unlikely, so the core network is going to come under a lot of pressure – is another 10m on the existing services/stock feasible? As others have said, the pressing need has to be for more services between Euston and Preston/Lancaster – ideally offering as close to a 30 min frequency as can be managed with limited paths. Glasgow services are fine as they are – the 4 and a half journey is competitive for many (like me) who can’t be faffed with heading to Glasgow Airport then trekking into London from Luton or Heathrow. But I’ve been on too may southbound trains that have left Warrington with folk standing – Preston, Wigan and Warrington deserve better.
adrock1976
Established Member
Regarding dropping the calls at Warrington Bank Quay and Wigan NW from the present London - Glasgow via Nuneaton (ex Trent Valley Railway), these trains at this moment in time provide reasonable connections at Warrington BQ from points north of Preston into the present day Manchester - Llandudno Junction/Llandudno/Holyhead via Frodsham and Chester.
Has any thought been given as to how to maintain those connections from Preston and points north?
Has any thought been given as to how to maintain those connections from Preston and points north?
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