Why are people opposed to HS2? (And other HS2 discussion)

DynamicSpirit · 19 Apr 2019

Sceptre said:
The Strategic Case clearly states that, in 2011 terms, the estimated cost with contingencies for HS2 is £21.4bn for Phase 1, £21.2bn for Phase 2, and £7.5bn for rolling stock. At some point, I imagine the rolling stock cost got rolled into the headline figure to make it seem like HS2's budget is spiralling out of control. The current figure of £55.7bn was announced during the 2015 Spending Review, and is due to inflation.

Thanks, I was asking because I was thinking of writing to my MP in support of HS2 and I want to be sure I've got my facts correct. Just to query a bit more. the £55.7bn is for phase 1 and 2, but that presumably that therefore includes Phase 2b, which hasn't yet gone through any detailed design plan, and therefore must be a fairly crude estimate? Is that correct? Shouldn't there be a reasonably accurate and up-to-date figure covering specifically Phases 1 and 2a, since those are the bits that have gone through a very detailed design process (and are starting construction)?

Also, there were stories a couple of weeks ago in the Press that the Government were temporarily withholding some funding for HS2 pending clarification on the costs. For example, this in Rail Technology Magazine:

RTM said:
Ministers have delayed signing off on the first half of funding for HS2 over concerns about the flagship rail project’s spiralling costs.

A formal ‘notice to proceed’ on the major construction works for the first phase of the project was due to be issued in June, but this now been put back by six months, according to the Sunday Telegraph.

The order would have unlocked up to £27bn for the first phase of HS2, but ministers have reportedly not allowed the firm to enter into agreements with contractors based on the current design and cost.

The Sunday Telegraph quoted a Whitehall source who said the delay came after Chris Grayling made it “very clear to HS2” that they must stick to the project’s £56bn budget.

Does anyone know more details of that, and what the Government's reasoning was? Based on that story, the Government seem worried that it will be more than £56bn. But is there any actual evidence of that? (Beyond speculation)

RailUK Forums

The Ham · 19 Apr 2019

civ-eng-jim said:
Here's the Midlands Economic Forum's report:

Unsurprisingly it doesn't reference any of the sources for the information in the report.....

Thanks for the link, it saves having to enter personal information into a website which I otherwise wouldn't be interested in (I do wonder if that's why they've done it).

One thing which the report says highlights how little they understand about the project:

HS2 Ltd. currently estimate it is possible to run 18 trains an hour (currently the West Coast Mainline handles 3 Pendolino trains an hour from Birmingham to Euston). At 60% capacity, HS2 are proposing that daily passenger transport movements will be approximately equivalent to 10% of the entire West Midlands regional labour market.

Remind me again does Virgin only run trains between London and Birmingham?

Likewise is it only those who work in the West Midlands which will be using HS2 to travel (i.e. no children will be able to use it)?

Nym · 19 Apr 2019

The Ham said:
Thanks for the link, it saves having to enter personal information into a website which I otherwise wouldn't be interested in (I do wonder if that's why they've done it).

One thing which the report says highlights how little they understand about the project:

Remind me again does Virgin only run trains between London and Birmingham?

Likewise is it only those who work in the West Midlands which will be using HS2 to travel (i.e. no children will be able to use it)?

It's also only Virgin that run between Euston and Birmingham.

LOL The Irony · 19 Apr 2019

Nym said:
It's also only Virgin that run between Euston and Birmingham.

LNWR?

DynamicSpirit · 19 Apr 2019

Nym said:
It's also only Virgin that run between Euston and Birmingham.

And they are all Pendolinos. None of them are voyagers. (Must be true coz the Midlands Economics Forum says '3 pendolinos')

LOL The Irony · 19 Apr 2019

Oh I've got the wrong end of the stick here :lol:

. I just realised it was tounge in cheek.

The Ham · 26 Apr 2019

The Ham said:
There may well be those who think that I'm an A, however if be willing to drop my support for it if someone could provide an alternative which got close to providing at least half of the advantages of HS2 whilst removing some of the problems which HS2 suffers from.

I still appear to be waiting an alternative, not only on here but when I ask about alternitves on Twitter I get something like :
- better broadband (current average speeds are about 50mb/s, up from about 5mb/s in 2009, & satellite internet is 30mb/s for rural locations)
- longer trains (there's been 3,000 coaches delivered in the last 5 years with over 2,000 more due in the next 5, not including TfW or EMT trains)
- spending on the existing network, typically with the suggestion that a fraction of the HS2 budget would fix it (enhancements to the existing network of £25bn since 2009, with maintenance, HS2 & new rolling stock not included in this figure)
- other stations in London are busier than Euston and why aren't we sorting them out first (HS2 benefits Euston, Kings Cross & Marylebone, Paddington/Liverpool Street due to be helped by Crossrail and Waterloo/Liverpool Street due to be helped by Crossrail 2)
- build HS3/Northern Powerhouse Rail first (NPR relies on HS2 infrastructure, as an example between Manchester Airport and Piccadilly, so if HS2 is cancelled it makes NPR less likely as it's costs go up)

I've not be told HSUK, but that relies on the MML to get out of London, which is totally fine as is not like it had Thameslink services using it....

If people want to stop HS2 they need to provide an alternitve to cater for the 70% growth in passengers between London & the regions which benefits from phase 1 (which was justified on a 50% growth of passenger numbers by 2026, at this rate by then there could be more passenger growth by 2026 than the case for phase 2 was based upon).

Sceptre · 26 Apr 2019

The Greens came out with some more rubbish yesterday in response to Labour's bus strategy.

It's a bit weird that a party that's supposedly against austerity is going with the line that cancelling HS2 will "free up money" for the rest of the network.

Railwaysceptic · 26 Apr 2019

Sceptre said:
It's a bit weird that a party that's supposedly against austerity is going with the line that cancelling HS2 will "free up money" for the rest of the network.

Where's the contradiction in that?

Sceptre · 26 Apr 2019

The idea that HS2 is taking away from the classic rail budget is completely erroneous and is logic based within an austerity mindset. Indeed, the alternative interventions that anti-HS2 types call for could be done alongside HS2 without long-term pressure on public finances; infrastructure spending is like a cheat code for stimulating economic growth.

Even if you treat the transport budget as being zero-sum, there are certain policy decisions that the government have taken since 2015 that have deleterious effects to the public purse and the environment; the fuel duty freeze costs £900 million each year, every year, to maintain, for example, and since 2010 it's cost almost the budget of HS2 already.

LNW-GW Joint · 26 Apr 2019

There was some loose chat last night on Newsnight, which was about balancing future budgets (and axing benefits for rich pensioners).
In the exchanges between policy wonks, HS2 came up as a vanity project that should be cancelled with the funds used elsewhere (not rail/transport).
Kirsty Wark, normally a rail supporter, stated as fact that HS2 was already £30 billion over budget and "out of control".
If this is the serious media's view of the project, it is in real trouble.
Among other things it confuses the difference between capital and revenue in the government's books.
You can't equate HS2 construction with the payment of pensions.

PR1Berske · 26 Apr 2019

If the mood music is correct, if the whispers are true, if the hints are of any value, then I am more confident than ever before that HS2 will soon be cancelled.

And I'd be the happiest man on the forum when it happens.

LNW-GW Joint said:
There was some loose chat last night on Newsnight, which was about balancing future budgets (and axing benefits for rich pensioners).
In the exchanges between policy wonks, HS2 came up as a vanity project that should be cancelled with the funds used elsewhere (not rail/transport).
Kirsty Walk, normally a rail supporter, stated as fact that HS2 was already £30 billion over budget and "out of control".
If this is the serious media's view of the project, it is in real trouble.
Among other things it confuses the difference between capital and revenue in the government's books.
You can't equate HS2 construction with the payment of pensions.

Bletchleyite · 26 Apr 2019

PR1Berske said:
If the mood music is correct, if the whispers are true, if the hints are of any value, then I am more confident than ever before that HS2 will soon be cancelled.

And I'd be the happiest man on the forum when it happens.

I won't, but I fear (particularly with the Crossrail debacle) you may well be right.

Best get building the 5th lane on the M1, then. Maybe an extra runway at Ee'throw, Luton, Stansted and Gatwick too.

(Having said that I could be convinced by a "halfway house" of building only phase 1 with all rolling stock classic-compatible - that is the one that will be the bit of most benefit - or even build it to just 140mph, run Pendolinos on it and get a load more Desiros or 80x in for slowed-down classic services - that still gives you the important thing which is tracks 5 and 6 on the south WCML).

jfowkes · 26 Apr 2019

PR1Berske said:
If the mood music is correct, if the whispers are true, if the hints are of any value, then I am more confident than ever before that HS2 will soon be cancelled.

And I'd be the happiest man on the forum when it happens.

Even if it gets cancelled, surely you'd only be truly happy when your magic WCML capacity solutions get funded and built? I mean, cancelling HS2 is only half the battle, right?

PR1Berske · 26 Apr 2019

jfowkes said:
Even if it gets cancelled, surely you'd only be truly happy when your magic WCML capacity solutions get funded and built? I mean, cancelling HS2 is only half the battle, right?

I want the end of HS2 and the proper funding of regional priorities.

Adsy125 · 26 Apr 2019

PR1Berske said:
I want the end of HS2 and the proper funding of regional priorities.

But if HS2 is cancelled that won’t happen, the WCML, ECML, MML will all continue to get substantially busier. And NPRs business case will get much worse, and there will be none of the opportunities for the extra local and regional services to run in paths HS2 would have freed up. Year on year rail enhancements (HS2 excluded) has only increased, how much more do we need to spend on the railways and what schemes do you propose?

PR1Berske · 26 Apr 2019

Adsy125 said:
how much more do we need to spend on the railways and what schemes do you propose?

You wouldn't ask that question of a pro-HS2 person so you can't all that of me.

HS2 is a London based project. You need to ask people in London is they need a new railway.

The Ham · 26 Apr 2019

Adsy125 said:
But if HS2 is cancelled that won’t happen, the WCML, ECML, MML will all continue to get substantially busier. And NPRs business case will get much worse, and there will be none of the opportunities for the extra local and regional services to run in paths HS2 would have freed up. Year on year rail enhancements (HS2 excluded) has only increased, how much more do we need to spend on the railways and what schemes do you propose?

View media item 3339
Since 2009 the total is £25bn.

In that time passenger numbers are up 70% between London and the regions which benefit the most from phase 1. (Phase 1 was justified on about 50% growth)

View media item 3340

Bletchleyite · 26 Apr 2019

PR1Berske said:
You wouldn't ask that question of a pro-HS2 person so you can't all that of me.

HS2 is a London based project. You need to ask people in London is they need a new railway.

You do know that Milton Keynes (which is probably the primary beneficiary of HS2 in many ways) is not in London, right? Or are you so stuck in your bubble that anything south of Birmingham is London?

Adsy125 · 26 Apr 2019

PR1Berske said:
You wouldn't ask that question of a pro-HS2 person so you can't all that of me.

HS2 is a London based project. You need to ask people in London is they need a new railway.

I wouldn’t ask that of an HS2 supporter because the scheme they support is HS2!

The Ham · 26 Apr 2019

PR1Berske said:
You wouldn't ask that question of a pro-HS2 person so you can't all that of me.

HS2 is a London based project. You need to ask people in London is they need a new railway.

I'll happily answer the question, we need HS2 (£3.75bn/ year) Crossrail 2, Southern Approach to Heathrow, HS3 (which looks likes it's going to get the go ahead), Trans Pennies Upgrades (due to be finished prior to phase 1 of HS2), more electrification, longer trains (which given there's over 2,000 coaches due to be delivered in the next 5 years, plus TfW's and EMT's new trains).

jfowkes · 26 Apr 2019

PR1Berske said:
I want the end of HS2 and the proper funding of regional priorities.

I want HS2 and the proper funding of regional priorities and believe it's possible to have both. As has been discussed at length, HS2 is not taking money from the classic network. By all means campaign for an increase to the rail budget, I think we'd all be for that.

But cancelling HS2 will not get you any closer to what you truly want.

Ianno87 · 26 Apr 2019

PR1Berske said:
You wouldn't ask that question of a pro-HS2 person so you can't all that of me.

HS2 is a London based project. You need to ask people in London is they need a new railway.

<< Insert regular reminder that two thirds of HS2 infrastructure is located north of Birmingham >>

6Gman · 26 Apr 2019

PR1Berske said:
If the mood music is correct, if the whispers are true, if the hints are of any value, then I am more confident than ever before that HS2 will soon be cancelled.

And I'd be the happiest man on the forum when it happens.

I think we'd sussed that already.

But, if it's cancelled, how do you address the capacity issue on the WCML by 2030?

6Gman · 26 Apr 2019

PR1Berske said:
You wouldn't ask that question of a pro-HS2 person so you can't all that of me.

HS2 is a London based project. You need to ask people in London is they need a new railway.

Curiously all the correspondence I get from this "London based project" comes from Birmingham ...

Ianno87 · 26 Apr 2019

6Gman said:
I think we'd sussed that already.

But, if it's cancelled, how do you address the capacity issue on the WCML by 2030?

That question is asked every time he pops up...and never answered in a way that stands up to any actual scrutiny.

At least "smart timetabling" hasn't come up again for a while.

6Gman · 26 Apr 2019

Bletchleyite said:
You do know that Milton Keynes (which is probably the primary beneficiary of HS2 in many ways) is not in London, right? Or are you so stuck in your bubble that anything south of Birmingham is London?

In PR1Berske's world the south starts at Wigan ... and London starts at Basford Hall ...

NoMorePacers · 26 Apr 2019

6Gman said:
In PR1Berske's world the south starts at Wigan ... and London starts at Basford Hall ...

In that case I invite him to come to Yorkshire and say that it is in the South.

He should have a jolly good time. :lol:

6Gman · 26 Apr 2019

Ianno87 said:
That question is asked every time he pops up...and never answered in a way that stands up to any actual scrutiny.

At least "smart timetabling" hasn't come up again for a while.

Didn't he suggest running trains to/from different stations at one point?

Relieve the WCML by running Oldham to Fenchurch Street perhaps ...

PR1Berske · 26 Apr 2019

6Gman said:
Didn't he suggest running trains to/from different stations at one point?

Relieve the WCML by running Oldham to Fenchurch Street perhaps ...

But why can't we think differently? You sneer and sniff, but think outside the usual London-based rail establishment. If we stopped calling Euston the one and only destination for all Northern traffic, there could be just as much opening up of opportunities as suggested by HS2 supporters. Why do HS2 people obsess over the old fashioned idea of "Euston is full, let's build a new railway line"? Why not "It might be necessary to look into the capacity of Euston so let's look elsewhere" ?

There are no capacity problems which cannot be sorted by just looking at things from a different angle.

Why are people opposed to HS2? (And other HS2 discussion)

Established Member

RailUK Forums

Established Member

Established Member

On Moderation

Established Member

On Moderation

Established Member

Member

Established Member

Member

Veteran Member

Established Member

Veteran Member

Member

Established Member

Member

Established Member

Established Member

Veteran Member

Member

Established Member

Member

Veteran Member

Established Member

Established Member

Veteran Member

Established Member

Established Member

Established Member

Established Member