Respectfully, the situation in Northern Ireland should always be viewed in the context of the suspension of power-sharing, with the country effectively being run directly from Westminster by a gob-smackingly inept Northern Ireland secretary. The organisations that forment trouble have also always continued to exist at some level, so it's a little easier for things to kick off there than elsewhere. Whilst the murder of a journalist is shocking and tragic, it isn't something I'd automatically tie into Brexit.
The pollsters make it clear that the euros are the hardest elections to predict at the best of times, and even worse now, so a poll taken before the campaign starts and a couple of days after the high profile launch of the Brexit party doesn't necessarily tell you much. Fwiw the same survey had a 16 point lead for remain in a referendum
