700007
Established Member
They wouldn't even divest all of them, they definitely will try and keep Edmonton, Wood Green or Enfield garages to further Metroline's cause
-
Our booking engine at tickets.railforums.co.uk (powered by TrainSplit) helps support the running of the forum with every ticket purchase! Find out more and ask any questions/give us feedback in this thread!
Arriva for sale?
- Thread starter Towielad
- Start date
- Status
Sponsor Post - registered members do not see these adverts; click here to register, or click here to log in
R
RailUK Forums
philthetube
Established Member
- Joined
- 5 Jan 2016
- Messages
- 3,762
Apart from bidding for tenders in London I am struggling to think of many places where the two compeat, as against running along side each other.
LNW-GW Joint
Veteran Member
The asset that GNWR has is ORR approval for some paths on the WCML from Euston to Blackpool.
It depends how valuable that asset is to a prospective buyer.
The approval is supposed to run until HS2 starts, and any delay will reduce the value to an operator.
GNWR has been very quiet about its plans, and none are confirmed yet.
DB has shown in the past that it is prepared to shut down an open access service if it is not viable (Wrexham & Shropshire).
So we have to wait and see.
Arriva is of course a much bigger, diverse and successful operation than GNWR/Alliance.
It depends how valuable that asset is to a prospective buyer.
The approval is supposed to run until HS2 starts, and any delay will reduce the value to an operator.
GNWR has been very quiet about its plans, and none are confirmed yet.
DB has shown in the past that it is prepared to shut down an open access service if it is not viable (Wrexham & Shropshire).
So we have to wait and see.
Arriva is of course a much bigger, diverse and successful operation than GNWR/Alliance.
matacaster
On Moderation
- Joined
- 19 Jan 2013
- Messages
- 1,601
Interested to know what the book value is for 'goodwill' and 'brand image'?
Suggestions?
Suggestions?
DavidGrain
Established Member
- Joined
- 29 Dec 2017
- Messages
- 1,236
There is no value for goodwill shown in the published accounts of Arriva plc for the year to 31st December 2017. However as an intermediate holding company there is no requirement for them to produce group consolidated accounts so there is no way of knowing what the book value would be. The actual value would be what a purchaser would pay over and above the net fair value of the assets less the liabilities and again with no consolidated accounts we cannot work that out.
Anthony ross
Member
- Joined
- 15 Nov 2017
- Messages
- 205
I personally see we could see Arriva being floated back on the stock market rather than being sold
coppercapped
Established Member
How Arriva is sold - and DB does wish to sell it - depends solely and entirely on decisions made by management at DB AG group level. It could be a trade sale, it could be a flotation (and as DB is German that could quite easily be on the Frankfurt exchange and not London) or it could be broken up and parts sold separately. The choice which is made will be based on recommendations from DB's advisors to generate the best return for DB.
Don't forget that Arriva has an annual turnover in excess of £4.5 billion and employs more than 50,000 people spread over 14 European countries. It's UK operations, while significant, are only part of the whole.
DavidGrain
Established Member
- Joined
- 29 Dec 2017
- Messages
- 1,236
The only thing I would see against a Frankfurt flotation is the lack of any German operations in the Arriva portfolio. I think Amsterdam is more likely. I think Brexit has ruled out a London floatation. Arriva could be re-registered as an SE (Societas Europaea) in an EU country.
overthewater
Established Member
- Joined
- 16 Apr 2012
- Messages
- 8,161
It seems to have gone rather quiet on this front, 10 weeks now and nothing? or even 6 weeks and no posts. You would you think someone mentioned?
Bantamzen
Established Member
I would imagine these kinds of decisions take time, and it is important to remember that this was only being considered as an option by DB. It could be months, even years before they make any kind of move on a sale, if indeed they decide to do this at all.
Robertj21a
On Moderation
- Joined
- 22 Sep 2013
- Messages
- 7,518
I think DB has referred to any decision being more likely later in the year.
WatcherZero
Established Member
- Joined
- 25 Feb 2010
- Messages
- 10,272
4 Primary bidders have now emerged though DB is progressing a float in parallel to the sale process as an alternative.
Brookfield Asset Management (Canadian and own property like Canary Wharf as well as utilities) and Goldman Sachs (The US bank)
Carlyle Group (American Buyout Fund) and DWS (German asset management company)
Apollo Global Management (US Vulture fund)
SNCF via Keolis
So no UK companies bidding.
Auction process expected to begin around now.
Brookfield Asset Management (Canadian and own property like Canary Wharf as well as utilities) and Goldman Sachs (The US bank)
Carlyle Group (American Buyout Fund) and DWS (German asset management company)
Apollo Global Management (US Vulture fund)
SNCF via Keolis
So no UK companies bidding.
Auction process expected to begin around now.
Robertj21a
On Moderation
- Joined
- 22 Sep 2013
- Messages
- 7,518
A good number showing an interest. Should produce an acceptable price for DB.
LNW-GW Joint
Veteran Member
Only one of those seems to have an interest in rail transport.
Robertj21a
On Moderation
- Joined
- 22 Sep 2013
- Messages
- 7,518
Yes I'm a touch suspicious of the background of some of those firms!
Glenn1969
Established Member
I do wonder what effect there would be on Grand Central and Northern if Arriva is bought by a Hedge Fund Bank or Venture Capitalist. Could the new owner decide there is no profit to be had in Northern and hand back the keys to the DfT ?
Killingworth
Established Member
Certainly an option any new owner would consider if it would bring a better return.
DavidGrain
Established Member
- Joined
- 29 Dec 2017
- Messages
- 1,236
Of that list the only one I would trust is SNCF/Keolis. I think the others are just in it for the short term. Venture capitalists are usually looking for an out in no more than 5 years. Non-performing parts of the company won't last too long, it will be a case of comparing the exit costs with present revenues. Good performing parts of the business are saleable returning cash for the purchase cost. With the bus interests they will be selling in the same market as First who have already announced that their bus interests are up for sale.
Robertj21a
On Moderation
- Joined
- 22 Sep 2013
- Messages
- 7,518
Do you understand how big the Arriva Group is ?
37254
Member
I'm quite sure arriva own arriva buses, DB outside of germany, XC, chiltern railways, northern, grand central, and also lease out buses, at least to my local company, and own a few train care depots across the UK, Including Eastleigh and crewe which are 2 big ones.
I am relatively sure (could be wrong) that Brookfield and Carlyle Group are share holders in Various ROSCOs so its not as if they are totally new to the UK railway system. You'd have some advantage in running a franchise if you were a shareholder in a train leasing company.
Last edited:
OxtedSignaller
Member
- Joined
- 31 Jul 2010
- Messages
- 360
SNCF/Keolis sounds very viable. Would probably however lead to the end of Govia however they are only a minority partner and Go Ahead are more than capable of taking contracts on by themselves and are doing so already through their new German concessions.
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
I am no fan of SNCF, however they do seem to be the only transport industry bidder, and therefore the only one likely to keep the group whole and build on it rather than asset-stripping.
WatcherZero
Established Member
- Joined
- 25 Feb 2010
- Messages
- 10,272
Asset Management companies do tend to be in it for the long haul, they like low but steady long term returns that attract long term investors to themselves like Pension companies.
DavidGrain
Established Member
- Joined
- 29 Dec 2017
- Messages
- 1,236
For the benefit of those who do not know how big Arriva is:
Total revenues, year to December 2017 €5.35 billion
Net operating profit year to December 20178 €569 million
I am sure December 2018 are available but I have not seen them yet.
Expect a sale price with nine zeros.
duesselmartin
Established Member
I wonder how wise it is to sell it in the first place. While it will give DB a nice bit of cash, it will also loose its most profitable arm.
- Status