Why are people opposed to HS2? (And other HS2 discussion)

MarkyT · 14 May 2019

PR1Berske said:
...classic lines are being left to rot with slower stoppers.

The WCML fast lines will be used by modified services many of which may stop more frequently at intermediate stations. That provides a better service at those stations while the fast expresses, which already run but today prevent the more frequent intermediate calls, are diverted to the new line. People will still have the choice of the fast trains but these will run on the new line.

PR1Berske said:
Going off current intercity prices, current rates of inflation, current season ticket prices, HS2 could cost £200 return, maybe £300, possibly higher. Season tickets must be beyond £1,500...Cheaper and it would lose to the existing classic line stoppers.

Prices will be yield managed just as they are on today's Virgin expresses. There will be so many seats in total that at some times they are bound to offer very good deals. the stoppers will appeal to a different market due to their additional calls, but might offer a better budget deal at peak times.

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The Ham · 14 May 2019

There's 11 million trips between London & the North West:
View media item 3340
If we assume a £75 off peak return between London and Manchester for 5.5 million return trips over 60 years that's £25bn of income. That's 45% of the costs of building the whole scheme even if there's zero growth and doesn't count travel between other regions, nor does it rely on anytime tickets.

Geezertronic · 14 May 2019

PR1Berske said:
There are no intermediate stations between Birmingham and Euston so that's a captive audience with deep pockets.

Birmingham Interchange is not in Birmingham (nor is Birmingham International or BHX Airport), nor is Old Oak Common

hwl · 14 May 2019

MarkyT said:
The WCML fast lines will be used by modified services many of which may stop more frequently at intermediate stations. That provides a better service at those stations while the fast expresses, which already run but today prevent the more frequent intermediate calls, are diverted to the new line. People will still have the choice of the fast trains but these will run on the new line.

Prices will be yield managed just as they are on today's Virgin expresses. There will be so many seats in total that at some times they are bound to offer very good deals. the stoppers will appeal to a different market due to their additional calls, but might offer a better budget deal at peak times.

Agreed.

The number of seats provided will go up hugely which will radically alter yield curves so there will be less stupidly high pricing.
The running cost / seat on a 400m Euston - Manchester Service will be ~£10 if seats are full filled hence expect pricing to reflect total revenue and cost base being better matched by pricing tickets to fill far more seats so a far flatter curve than currently.

matacaster · 14 May 2019

Why not increase length and frequency of Chiltern line trains, maybe some could go I to paddington. That would give extra capacity and there are probably chances to four track in places. Why must we only consider a ml, when Chiltern might be able to provide additional capacity at a lesser cost?
Marylebone Station could be double decked. Uch cheaper than Euston.

PR1Berske · 14 May 2019

DarloRich said:
Misrepresentation once again.

pure conjecture designed to support your willful misrepresentation

Prove otherwise.

matacaster · 14 May 2019

hwl said:
Unfortunately Alstom can't build any more as the crash regs have changed and the 9-11car conversion order was the last opportunity.

Perhaps the regs are over zealous and more an opportunity to give (particularly German) manufacturers new sales opportunities?

Esker-pades · 14 May 2019

matacaster said:
Why not increase length and frequency of Chiltern line trains, maybe some could go I to paddington. That would give extra capacity and there are probably chances to four track in places. Why must we only consider a ml, when Chiltern might be able to provide additional capacity at a lesser cost?
Marylebone Station could be double decked. Uch cheaper than Euston.

There cannot be any additional trains on the Chiltern Main Line without further removing intermediate stops from stopping services. Denham, Ruislip, Beaconsfield etc. already have a poor service. The lack of space at Marylebone is one problem, but Paddington is by no means devoid of traffic.
Four tracking, as far as I am aware, is only possible as a loop rather than as an actual 4 track main line.
One also has the problems with capacity up the other end through Banbury, Leamington, Birmingham Moor Street etc.

With some work, the Chiltern Main Line could have additional capacity, but nowhere near enough. And not enough to take capacity away from the WCML, only to generate extra traffic on the Chiltern.

PR1Berske said:
Prove otherwise.

I think 5 different users have addressed your most recent...thing.

The Ham · 14 May 2019

matacaster said:
Why not increase length and frequency of Chiltern line trains, maybe some could go I to paddington. That would give extra capacity and there are probably chances to four track in places. Why must we only consider a ml, when Chiltern might be able to provide additional capacity at a lesser cost?
Marylebone Station could be double decked. Uch cheaper than Euston.

We could do, however we may need to do so anyway to cope with rail growth on the Chiltern corridor.

The current all day average used capacity of Marylebone is 52%. Whilst the morning peak is 98% and the afternoon peak is 89%.

Dr Hoo · 14 May 2019

Marylebone has very poor interchange opportunities for onwards travel (and vice versa). No links to either Crossrail or Thameslink or airports. Only one tube line. Not in a major commercial area in its own right. The station has a very modest footprint, hemmed in by residential development and I can’t see how it could feasibly be rebuilt to change this, let alone remain operational during the works.

Paddington approaches will be totally full once Crossrail services are up and running so no scope to go there either.

DarloRich · 14 May 2019

PR1Berske said:
Prove otherwise.

Several other posters have done so in more polite terms than i am prepared to do. The sad fact is you are incapable of considering a view point other than your own very blinkered and biased position. It is clear you lack the ability to consider you may be wrong.

Bald Rick · 14 May 2019

matacaster said:
Why not increase length and frequency of Chiltern line trains, maybe some could go I to paddington. That would give extra capacity and there are probably chances to four track in places. Why must we only consider a ml, when Chiltern might be able to provide additional capacity at a lesser cost?
Marylebone Station could be double decked. Uch cheaper than Euston.

Chiltern trans lengths can’t be extended. The main line into Marylebone is effectively full because of the stopping patterns, and all lines into Paddington will be full when Crossrail opens.

The Ham · 14 May 2019

Bald Rick said:
Chiltern trans lengths can’t be extended. The main line into Marylebone is effectively full because of the stopping patterns, and all lines into Paddington will be full when Crossrail opens.

Whilst not a lengthening there's scope to squeeze a bit more capacity by replacing the mainline services with 222's or if electrified there could be EMU's but the capacity enhancements would be fairly small.

PR1Berske · 14 May 2019

DarloRich said:
Several other posters have done so in more polite terms than i am prepared to do. The sad fact is you are incapable of considering a view point other than your own very blinkered and biased position. It is clear you lack the ability to consider you may be wrong.

What are the ticket prices going to be, then?

Ianno87 · 14 May 2019

PR1Berske said:
There is no proof that they won't be eye-watering, either.

Going off current intercity prices, current rates of inflation, current season ticket prices, HS2 could cost £200 return, maybe £300, possibly higher. Season tickets must be beyond £1,500.

.

Well, given that an Anytime Return today from New Street to Euston (Any Permitted Route) is £178, £200 in 7 years' time will be quite a demonstrable fares reduction in real terms if your unevidenced shooting-from-the-hip speculation is correct.

Darandio · 14 May 2019

PR1Berske said:
What are the ticket prices going to be, then?

I'm amazed people are persevering with you to be honest. Ticket prices won't matter in the overall scheme of things.

yoyothehobo · 14 May 2019

Well if we look at high speed rail prices around the World they could be anything from £10 to £150 one way, varying from advance to anytime single.

Like anything, it will be priced to fill the trains at the most cost effective manner. Nothing running round empty is helpful, so you change your pricing strategy to balance people wanting speed v cost.

This sort of situation already exists in the UK, I can get from my current home to my parents home. Leeds to Wigan using Transpennine, change at Manchester and get a TP train to Wigan via Chat Moss (well i could, might have changed now Bolton is electrified) or get the Northern all stops direct to Wigan (via Halifax, Victoria, Wallgate onto Southport). Option A is over twice the cost of option B but is a lot quicker. Option B makes its money on all the shorter intermediate journeys.

If you are going to add a whole new railway for capacity, might as well make it a quick one.

PR1Berske · 14 May 2019

Darandio said:
I'm amazed people are persevering with you to be honest. Ticket prices won't matter in the overall scheme of things.

Hang on a minute. Yes ticket prices will.

HS2 is sold as not just being for rich commuters going to London Euston. It's for ordinary passengers too, apparently.

In that case, we need to know how affordable the tickets are going to be.

anme · 14 May 2019

PR1Berske said:
What are the ticket prices going to be, then?

OK, I'm pretty certain that PR1Berske is a satirical account run by a supporter of HS2. Fair play, some of it is actually quite funny.

This isn't a particularly witty post, but it shows the technique. PR1Berske asks a ridiculous question about ticket prices in full knowledge that no-one can answer it yet. A baby could destroy this as an anti-HS2 argument. This deliberately makes the questioner - and by extension those that oppose HS2 - look silly. The end result is that more people support HS2. I'm a good example. I'm actually somewhat sceptical about HS2, given the benefits versus the costs, and I wonder whether it is the best way to spend so much money. But the arguments posted by those claiming to oppose HS2 are so idiotic and easy to see through that I find myself instinctively supporting the project after reading this forum.

Ianno87 · 14 May 2019

PR1Berske said:
Hang on a minute. Yes ticket prices will.

HS2 is sold as not just being for rich commuters going to London Euston. It's for ordinary passengers too, apparently.

In that case, we need to know how affordable the tickets are going to be.

More affordable than the current WCML, based on your own speculation.

Darandio · 14 May 2019

PR1Berske said:
Hang on a minute. Yes ticket prices will.

It won't, certainly not in the way you are trying to portray it. You are making claims about differing figures, with the conclusion that X amount of tickets need to be sold at X price within a time period of X, otherwise it's not worth it. It doesn't work like that and given you have had it provided to you in the simplest of terms repeatedly, i'm certain you know it doesn't work like that either.

Like I said, i'm surprised people are persevering with you. It's like some kind of torturous sport.

RSimons · 14 May 2019

PR1Berske: I would be interested in seeing a proposed plan for getting an extra pair of 140mph lines through Nuneaton or Stockport (or any other junction station) that gives a clear run through and does not seriously impact other routes.

Esker-pades · 14 May 2019

PR1Berske said:
Hang on a minute. Yes ticket prices will.

HS2 is sold as not just being for rich commuters going to London Euston. It's for ordinary passengers too, apparently.

In that case, we need to know how affordable the tickets are going to be.

My emphasis.

1 page ago, you said this:

PR1Berske said:
Cheaper and it wouldn't win against internal flights. Cheaper and it would lose to the existing classic line stoppers.

So, if HS2 fares are cheap, you're against it. If they're expensive, you're against it. I'm glad you've got a coherent argument. Like @anme , I've found my attutide to HS2 get more and more positive the more I read your...."content".

Bald Rick · 14 May 2019

PR1Berske said:
What are the ticket prices going to be, then?

I’ll have a go. They’ll be yield managed like all long distance operators do today, and have done for 20 years+

Based on current arrangements, I would expect ticket prices (in today’s money equivalent) for a standard class single trip Euston to Birmingham to be between £8 on the quiet trains to £100 on the busiest. With a wide range in between.

For Preston, the range could be £20-£200 on the same basis.

EM2 · 14 May 2019

PR1Berske said:
Hang on a minute. Yes ticket prices will.

HS2 is sold as not just being for rich commuters going to London Euston. It's for ordinary passengers too, apparently.

In that case, we need to know how affordable the tickets are going to be.

Go to Ebbsfleet any Saturday, and tell me that ordinary people won't use High Speed, even people who have a classic line station on their doorstep, and have had to pay for petrol and parking, or the bus /taxi, to get to the High Speed station.

The Ham · 14 May 2019

PR1Berske said:
Hang on a minute. Yes ticket prices will.

HS2 is sold as not just being for rich commuters going to London Euston. It's for ordinary passengers too, apparently.

In that case, we need to know how affordable the tickets are going to be.

At 18tph for 15 hours a day in each direction over a 50 year period will mean that there's 9bn seats, so each seat only needs to generate £6 to cover the construction costs of £56bn.

Even if we accept (for the purpose of checking) that the cost of HS2 does come in at £100bn that's £11 per seat.

Either way there's plenty of scope to sell off cheap (say £50 return between London and most locations, which would give the coach companies a fairly good run for their money at £30 return to Scotland) tickets and still be making more money than is needed to cover the construction costs with 50% occupancy on those discounted tickets, with the other running costs being covered by those who buy other tickets.

mmh · 14 May 2019

The Ham said:
There's 11 million trips between London & the North West:
View media item 3340
If we assume a £75 off peak return between London and Manchester for 5.5 million return trips over 60 years that's £25bn of income. That's 45% of the costs of building the whole scheme even if there's zero growth and doesn't count travel between other regions, nor does it rely on anytime tickets.

Why would HS2 tickets be cheaper than the tickets today?

I see HS2 is magical in yet another way - it's free to operate?

Another way of phrasing your stats is "HS2 will pay for itself within 150 years," which is a bit harder to sell.

Ianno87 · 14 May 2019

mmh said:
Why would HS2 tickets be cheaper than the tickets today?

Read an economics textbook, the supply and demand chapter.

HS2 massively increases the supply side. Ergo the Market Clearing Price falls.

Demand rises to fill the supply over time.

Sceptre · 14 May 2019

The crayonistas at High Speed North have put their alternative plan for the Pennines and wow, it's bad.

I guess that nobody in the Spen Valley told them what a stupid idea that a high-speed link from the transpennine lines into Bradford would be.

DynamicSpirit · 14 May 2019

Sceptre said:
The crayonistas at High Speed North have put their alternative plan for the Pennines and wow, it's bad.

I guess that nobody in the Spen Valley told them what a stupid idea that a high-speed link from the transpennine lines into Bradford would be.

Oh God. So from that image, they want to re-open Sheffield Victoria, which breaks connectivity with existing services. Fix that problem by building a 3rd station in Sheffield - which from geography would almost certainly have to be a mega-expensive tunneled station. Then they want to run a 'high speed' line along the very curvy existing line out from Victoria towards Woodhead (good luck with that). And then, further South, they have this brand new line apparently running into a dead end (unless it links to HS2 phase 2, which they say they don't want to build).

Do these guys know the first thing about railways?

Why are people opposed to HS2? (And other HS2 discussion)

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