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Why are people opposed to HS2? (And other HS2 discussion)

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Peter Kelford

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It only looks prohibitive because we are looking at the total cost for it and it's difficult to remember that those costs will be paid out over a 15 year period.

Even using your quoted £75bn figure that's £5bn per year, that's not much more than the £4.1bn which was spent on rail enhancements to the existing network last year. At £60bn it falls to £4bn per year, so on a par.

I get the impression that a lot of the confusion about HS2 is down to it being so big that people get lost in the size of the scale of what it needs to do.

For instance needing to deal with moving the current 11 million trips per year who travel between London and the North West as well do a lot of the heavy lifting of the 13 million passengers between London and the West Midlands as well as all the other flows which it helps with.

It's a bit like paying for a new item with credit. You're still paying £x, just not in one go. The total price is still over-inflated for a high speed line. The other thing is that rail enhancements usually have a greater benefit and are overpriced already. Rail enhancements benefit everyone and make the railway safer and tries to stop the May timetable issue from happening again. HS2 is just a tiny fraction of the UK rail strategy.
 
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Peter Kelford

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I think that the Lords' proposal to build the north end first is better than building the south end first but useless anyway. Only Birmingham-Leeds will be a useful flow of traffic. Is it worth it?
 

AM9

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... The total price is still over-inflated for a high speed line. ...
How do you arrive at that assertion?
... The other thing is that rail enhancements usually have a greater benefit and are overpriced already. ...
I would agree that the last WCML upgrade was 'overpriced' because it was nearly half the cost of HS2 Phase 1 (in real cost terms) and provided additional capacity to cover less than 10 years growth. So for twice that cost, HS2 will give capacity to cover 30-50 years growth.
 

DynamicSpirit

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It's a bit like paying for a new item with credit. You're still paying £x, just not in one go. The total price is still over-inflated for a high speed line.

Evidence? Can you show how you've gone through the costings, and can you demonstrate in what aspects the price is over-inflated?
 

6Gman

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He also fears overspend on Phase 1 will damage Phase 2, the bit which really benefits the north (much like happened on the electrification programme).
Putting the north first is not a bad policy, but we are so far down the south-first programme it will be hard (and in places nonsensical) to stop.
Procurement is very far advanced based on the high specs (both route and rolling stock).

Actually wasn't electrification of the WCML started in the north? Liverpool-Crewe and Manchester-Crewe were done first and then worked southwards.
 

option

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I'm not against the overall idea of HS2, but as usual with government projects the details haven't been properly thought through, there's an unequal (London weighted) distribution of expenditure, & there's been nothing to 'nudge/force' the construction of the northern arms.

London gets 2 rail connected stations on HS2, Birmingham gets...none
Birmingham Interchange could have been combined with a rebuilt Birmingham International, & had in-building transfer from existing rail services, & the buses, & the airport, & the NEC. Instead it is going to rely on an 'automated people mover', if it doesn't get cut.

Curzon Street takes up a massive city centre re-development site & does nothing except put a fancy shed on it. It will not have direct connections to any existing rail services. It should have been a new lower-level under New St, which would have had access from New St station & Moor St station. In future, this could also have been used for other long-distance services to\via Birmingham, freeing up capacity in the original New St.
The cross-Pennines route should have been planned, authorised, & programmed to start works as soon as the various teams finish on HS2 Phase1. This would have included the station works at Manchester & Leeds.
Doing so would have left the northern arms as really obvious infill, would be suicidal for a government to then cancel them.
 

MarkyT

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Birmingham Interchange could have been combined with a rebuilt Birmingham International, & had in-building transfer from existing rail services, & the buses, & the airport, & the NEC. Instead it is going to rely on an 'automated people mover', if it doesn't get cut.
Curzon Street takes up a massive city centre re-development site & does nothing except put a fancy shed on it. It will not have direct connections to any existing rail services. It should have been a new lower-level under New St, which would have had access from New St station & Moor St station. In future, this could also have been used for other long-distance services to\via Birmingham, freeing up capacity in the original New St.
What you suggest would have been considerably more expensive and disruptive. The 'head end' entrance to Curzon Stereet will be right next to that of Moor Street, and with planned improvement of pedestrian links, both will be within a few minutes' walk of New Street main concourse.

I doubt the APM at Interchange will be dropped, not least because as well as connecting the station sites it will link the new station with the NEC and the airport, both likely to be major sources of demand for HS2 services.
 

Ianno87

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Actually wasn't electrification of the WCML started in the north? Liverpool-Crewe and Manchester-Crewe were done first and then worked southwards.

There is logic to that... working on the operational railway by getting going on the quiet bit first.... (the Styal line being the very first bit to be done).

Plus, it would've been tied into the 1960s remodelling of Euston station too, not wanting to electrify before that was completed.
 

Peter Kelford

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Evidence? Can you show how you've gone through the costings, and can you demonstrate in what aspects the price is over-inflated?

So, here I am delivering a basic arithmetic lesson to people who shouldn't need it.

Line+Infrastructure

330 miles total length for what we will estimate at (and I strongly believe it will be more) £60 billion. Therefore a per mile cost is £180m or thereabouts. Now let's look at other lines around the EU:

  • Frankfurt-Cologne £3 billion after inflation. Therefore, a mile cost of about £30 million
  • AVE Madrid Barcelona £9 billion after inflation. Around £25 million
I could go on, but I won't bore you with the same maths 10 times over. We can, however, safely say that HS lines cost about £30 million/mile in the EU.
Does no one realise that the cost is therefore about 6x more expensive than in other countries?

Rolling Stock

The government is investing £2.75 billion into rolling stock for 'up to' 60 multiple units. Therefore, if we assume the maximum number (60), that's a per unit cost of £45 million. By comparison, SNCF will be ordering new TGV sets (Avelia Horizon/TGV du Futur) for about £25 million apiece. This kind of price difference is definitely overinflated.

Construction Time

The Cologne-Frankfurt line took 4 years from start to finish while the LGV SEA took 7 years from contract award to operation. This won't be achievable with HS2. We know this from experience and the first signs.

So, to sum up, the line is a rip-off and not necessarily useful even.
 

Bald Rick

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So, here I am delivering a basic arithmetic lesson to people who shouldn't need it.

Line+Infrastructure

330 miles total length for what we will estimate at (and I strongly believe it will be more) £60 billion. Therefore a per mile cost is £180m or thereabouts. Now let's look at other lines around the EU:

  • Frankfurt-Cologne £3 billion after inflation. Therefore, a mile cost of about £30 million
  • AVE Madrid Barcelona £9 billion after inflation. Around £25 million
I could go on, but I won't bore you with the same maths 10 times over. We can, however, safely say that HS lines cost about £30 million/mile in the EU.
Does no one realise that the cost is therefore about 6x more expensive than in other countries?

Rolling Stock

The government is investing £2.75 billion into rolling stock for 'up to' 60 multiple units. Therefore, if we assume the maximum number (60), that's a per unit cost of £45 million. By comparison, SNCF will be ordering new TGV sets (Avelia Horizon/TGV du Futur) for about £25 million apiece. This kind of price difference is definitely overinflated.

Construction Time

The Cologne-Frankfurt line took 4 years from start to finish while the LGV SEA took 7 years from contract award to operation. This won't be achievable with HS2. We know this from experience and the first signs.

So, to sum up, the line is a rip-off and not necessarily useful even.

How much of Köln-Frankfurt and Madrid-Barca involved digging long tunnels under built up areas, and building brand new stations in city centres with lots of platforms? How much was HSL Zuid in the Netherlands? (I’ll tell you, about £130m/mile in current prices). Or Nuremberg - Ingolstadt? (£60m) So we can safely say that HS lines cost different amounts in Europe depending on the circumstances.

Rolling stock. The £2.75bn is for manufacture and maintenance. My chums in rolling stock leasing / maintenance tell me that the typical cost of maintenance over the life of the train is about the same as the up front cost, on the same price basis. So that £45m/ train is actually about £22.5m.

Time. Köln Frankfurt took 7 years to build, not 4. It was also in planning for 23 years. HSL- Zuid took 9 years to build. Ebensfeld-Erfurt took 18 years (not including a 3 year pause). HS2 Phase 1 is planned to take 7 years when construction starts.

So to sum up, you need to do better research before arguing points, otherwise your arguments will be discredited.
 

DarloRich

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I think that the Lords' proposal to build the north end first is better than building the south end first but useless anyway. Only Birmingham-Leeds will be a useful flow of traffic. Is it worth it?

building the north end first is useless other than as a PR sop. It does not deliver enough/any benefit on its own. For points north of Birmingham the whole benefit is to use HS2 as a tool to deliver growth and economic success by making them closer to London. By making these locations closer to London it makes the case for reginalisation of the economy easier to make. For points south of Birmingham the benefit is in freeing up WCML south capacity.

surely these points are obvious?

So, here I am delivering a basic arithmetic lesson to people who shouldn't need it.

Line+Infrastructure

330 miles total length for what we will estimate at (and I strongly believe it will be more) £60 billion. Therefore a per mile cost is £180m or thereabouts. Now let's look at other lines around the EU:

  • Frankfurt-Cologne £3 billion after inflation. Therefore, a mile cost of about £30 million
  • AVE Madrid Barcelona £9 billion after inflation. Around £25 million
I could go on, but I won't bore you with the same maths 10 times over. We can, however, safely say that HS lines cost about £30 million/mile in the EU.
Does no one realise that the cost is therefore about 6x more expensive than in other countries?

Rolling Stock

The government is investing £2.75 billion into rolling stock for 'up to' 60 multiple units. Therefore, if we assume the maximum number (60), that's a per unit cost of £45 million. By comparison, SNCF will be ordering new TGV sets (Avelia Horizon/TGV du Futur) for about £25 million apiece. This kind of price difference is definitely overinflated.

Construction Time

The Cologne-Frankfurt line took 4 years from start to finish while the LGV SEA took 7 years from contract award to operation. This won't be achievable with HS2. We know this from experience and the first signs.

So, to sum up, the line is a rip-off and not necessarily useful even.

these figures and timescales look all over the shop! they are simply not correct.
 

Bletchleyite

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I see now the House of Lords is coming up with the drivel about terminating it at Old Oak.

Nobody will use it if they do that. It will become the world's most expensive white elephant. People primarily want to go to central London, not some Godforesaken suburb several miles outside (crikey, Paddington is bad enough). It would be as ridiculous as terminating the GEML at Stratford.

IOW, it's the kind of thing countries like Albania who aren't serious about rail do. Not something we should be doing.
 

AM9

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How much of Köln-Frankfurt and Madrid-Barca involved digging long tunnels under built up areas, and building brand new stations in city centres with lots of platforms? How much was HSL Zuid in the Netherlands? (I’ll tell you, about £130m/mile in current prices). Or Nuremberg - Ingolstadt? (£60m) So we can safely say that HS lines cost different amounts in Europe depending on the circumstances.

Rolling stock. The £2.75bn is for manufacture and maintenance. My chums in rolling stock leasing / maintenance tell me that the typical cost of maintenance over the life of the train is about the same as the up front cost, on the same price basis. So that £45m/ train is actually about £22.5m.

Time. Köln Frankfurt took 7 years to build, not 4. It was also in planning for 23 years. HSL- Zuid took 9 years to build. Ebensfeld-Erfurt took 18 years (not including a 3 year pause). HS2 Phase 1 is planned to take 7 years when construction starts.

So to sum up, you need to do better research before arguing points, otherwise your arguments will be discredited.
Not only are the physical circumstances completely different, the poster has (through ignorance of its relevance or delberately as isso often practicedby protest groups), not quoted any cost bases. The £60bn is a fictitious figure anyway, the current official one is £55.7bn at a 2015 base. The £3bn figure quoted for DB's Koln-Frankfurt project is meaningless without a base for inflation calculations. It could be 1993 when the route was fixed, 1995 when construction started, 1999 when the first section opened or 2002 when the project was completed. Even if it was 2002, that would equate to a cost of £3.6bn in 2015, if it was when the project got the go-ahead in 1993, that £3bn would really be 4.49bn, (shock horror, 'a 50% rise in costs, - the project was out of control!' as some here might say).
Also the £55.7bn includes the acquisition of trains and as Bald Rick says, the maintenance costs are also there as well.
Additional facts that make the comparison irrelevant:
There are four stations on the route, only one of which is anything like those on HS2, - Frankfurt Airport. The others are establishments much like Ashford or Ebbsfleet. The line uses the normal tracks into Koln and Frankfurt Hbf stations, (because the line uses the EU GC gauge that is standard on the DB classic lines).
Because the routes into town and city centres are already suitable, decisions weretaken to run at classic line speeds into those stops meaning that the line was much cheaper to build.
Land values are much lower in Germany than anywhere south of Birmingham, especially between Euston and Aylesbury.​
So comparisons are specious unless all factors are taken into consideration.
 

Polarbear

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Actually wasn't electrification of the WCML started in the north? Liverpool-Crewe and Manchester-Crewe were done first and then worked southwards.

Yep, that’s right, and there are some parallels between that project and today’s HS2.

Manchester to Crewe was first to be wired in 1960, followed by Liverpool to Crewe in 1962. So it starts from the north, heading south.

As costs escalated, there were some serious calls to abandon the electrification project, but it was continued, and completed by April 1966.

The rest is history. Yes, it went over budget, but once open, was hugely successful in attracting new traffic to the railways. Remember, at completion of the electrification in April ‘66 (main bit) and ‘67 for Birmingham & Stoke bits, Manchester & Liverpool to London ran every 2 hours, Birmingham to London was hourly, with the rest being an infrequent assortment of services.

The UK population has grown significantly since the 1960’s, and capacity is fast running out on the existing network. The need to provide some additional infrastructure is pretty inescapable.

History shows that a faster, improved service will reap dividends going forward. I just hope that those making the decisions remember this when considering HS2.
 

DynamicSpirit

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I'm not against the overall idea of HS2, but as usual with government projects the details haven't been properly thought through, there's an unequal (London weighted) distribution of expenditure, & there's been nothing to 'nudge/force' the construction of the northern arms.

Yes of course. HS2 has been carefully planned out over some years by industry professionals trying to balance costs, connectivity to the existing rail network, environmental impact, etc. etc. Clearly when you're trying to balance lots of competing factors you're not going to find a perfect solution. But, yeah, let's just dismiss it in a crayonista manner as 'the details haven't been properly thought through'

Curzon Street takes up a massive city centre re-development site & does nothing except put a fancy shed on it. It will not have direct connections to any existing rail services. It should have been a new lower-level under New St, which would have had access from New St station & Moor St station. In future, this could also have been used for other long-distance services to\via Birmingham, freeing up capacity in the original New St.

Ummm, have you even begun to think about how much it would add to costs if they tried building a whole new underground set of platforms underneath an already over-crowded station?

The cross-Pennines route should have been planned, authorised, & programmed to start works as soon as the various teams finish on HS2 Phase1. This would have included the station works at Manchester & Leeds.
Doing so would have left the northern arms as really obvious infill, would be suicidal for a government to then cancel them.

They already are holding off on the detailed planning of Phase 2 in order to work out how best to integrate it with Northern Powerhouse Rail. With finite resources, you can't plan out everything simultaneously y'know. Seems to me perfectly sensible that they started with the detailed plans for London-Birmingham-Crewe first since that part of the route (a) had the least potential for complications in terms of trying to integrate with some other not-yet-planned out new rail network, and (b) will be the most useful bit to open first in terms of the sheer numbers of people it helps - by relieving capacity on several massively overcrowded existing main lines.
 

MarkyT

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Ummm, have you even begun to think about how much it would add to costs if they tried building a whole new underground set of platforms underneath an already over-crowded station?
By my estimation, at 400m long, each platform of a notional underground HS2 station would excavate at least as much material as a complete Crossrail station. Then there's the huge throat junction caverns required for a multi-platform facility. At least it's fairly easy to construct all that at Old Oak Common within the huge open topped trench being excavated on a brownfield site, but to put it all in mined tunnels under an existing major terminal in a city centre location strikes me as horrendously difficult and expensive, and very risky in terms of cost control and timescale. Aside from OOC, HS2's policy of using conventional surface and viaduct construction at all their new stations is a sensible de-risking strategy.
 
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MarkyT

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Seems to me perfectly sensible that they started with the detailed plans for London-Birmingham-Crewe first since that part of the route (a) had the least potential for complications in terms of trying to integrate with some other not-yet-planned out new rail network, and (b) will be the most useful bit to open first in terms of the sheer numbers of people it helps - by relieving capacity on several massively overcrowded existing main lines.
Also it starts a significant income stream coming in early on this first busiest segment over a significant distance to start servicing the investment capital and help finance further extensions. Starting with a relatively insignificant segment in the north is just not going to get the bucks flowing back in so quickly.
 

tbtc

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It's laughable that people purport to 'support the railway' because they support HS2, whilst espousing sub-Beeching nonsense.

I’m not sure I understand by “sub-Beeching nonsense” (?) but I am confused by the attitude that we should focus on building heavy rail to rural towns instead of focussing on linking large cities (which is the market where heavy rail is most competitive).

I could understand the “build more lines to all places” approach, or the “don’t build any new lines” approach, but the idea of focussing on areas of low population density and ignoring the biggest conurbations confuses me.

I’m also not certain what you mean by “supporting the railway” – is this some kind of purity test to assess whether someone is a proper enthusiast?

Surely wanting a new line like HS2 *is* supporting the railway? Or can we only truly be considered to “support the railway” if we agree to permanently subsidising every quiet branchline?

Can I be considered to “support the railway” if I think that a new line linking our biggest cities is A Good Thing but am relaxed about closing rural backwaters like Knottingley – Goole?

(as I’ve said before though, if HS2 only followed lines closed in the 1960s, people on here would love it!)

Furthermore, the next generation of travel threatens to render HS2 useless. The next generation could be faster air travel with innovative security, it could be autonomous road vehicles, the hyperloop or anything else. At the same time, ticket prices on HS2 will be prohibitive, whilst it will be possible to do most things on the internet

Funny how the “autonomous road vehicles/ everyone working from home/ doing everything online/ never having to leave the house” arguments are only used against HS2 – presumably these advances in technology won’t affect (say) the Woodhead line any of the other Usual Suspects that people want us to re-open?

(ignoring the fact that most people having been online for twenty years or more and rail use has roughly doubled in that time, so the idea that doing most things on the internet will mean we don’t need trains seems… thin)

We could also stop HSTs from going off-lease by giving them secondary expresses. The 140mph expresses would be run by 390s, with 221s and HSTs running the 125mph expresses.

So your solution for the WCML would be

  • 110mph HSTs (they can’t tilt so would be restricted to this top speed)
  • 125mph 221s
  • 140mph 390s

…can you see how poor a use of paths that would be? Lines with uniform speeds can achieve many more trains per hour - the killer is when you try to mix 75mph/ 100mph trains with 125mph trains (or faster) - which is why the Victorian lines are struggling at the moment.

To be fair to Peter, he doesn't have to prove anything, but as the upper budget of HS2 is still unknown and unconfirmed, and as supporters of HS2 rarely answer me when I ask them "how much is too much?", it could be validly argued that any scheme which offers an alternative to HS2 is demonstrably cheaper than it.

At least Peter is coming up with some ideas – rather than just stirring the pot and asking unanswerable questions (the kind of questions which aren’t levelled against other schemes).

For example, you’ve suggested a Preston – Southport line in another thread – I don’t remember anyone dismissing this with scare stories about how tickets might be £100 (because nobody has specified ticket prices so it’d be impossible to categorically state that they wouldn’t be)…

…or suggesting that because the construction costs aren’t guaranteed that we shouldn’t commit to a project until the entire costs can be quantified?

There is no upper limit to the current budget. You know that. You know that the current budget could be breached because no ceiling has been put in place

…so just like every other rail project (see above)?

The same arguments can be said of Transpennine electrification or EGIP or redeveloping New Street but the “no upper limit” argument only seems to affect HS2 threads. Strange that…

Has any rail infrastructure scheme ever "paid for itself" purely through fares? If not, then requiring that of HS2 seems unfair.

I don’t think so – again, another thing that people only bash HS2 for (just like the “but how will this benefit somewhere hundreds of miles from the project” argument that isn’t applied to other projects).

As far as I’m concerned, one of my benchmarks would be that new routes ought to require no operational subsidy – that seems a reasonable starting point – but I wouldn’t expect everything to repay construction costs over a twenty/fifty year period.

Marylebone Station could be double decked. Uch cheaper than Euston.


Double decking Marylebone?

Above or low-level? Where would the new lines join the existing infrastructure? In the current throat or further out?

Hang on a minute. Yes ticket prices will.

HS2 is sold as not just being for rich commuters going to London Euston. It's for ordinary passengers too, apparently.

In that case, we need to know how affordable the tickets are going to be.

Again, dodging, weaving, distracting, asking questions that you know cannot be answered.

Yet with every other project, people manage to form an opinion of the feasibility without needing such assurances.

Personally, I think that the operating costs on a 400m train (on non-Victorian lines) mean that it should be much cheaper per seat, so ticket prices may be lower because we can dump seats.

But even if someone could guarantee the price, you’d find a different reason to be against it. Be honest, eh?

(and the idea that eighteen 400m long trains per hour will only be used by the wealthiest 1% of society and no "ordinary" people?)

OK, I'm pretty certain that PR1Berske is a satirical account run by a supporter of HS2. Fair play, some of it is actually quite funny.


This isn't a particularly witty post, but it shows the technique. PR1Berske asks a ridiculous question about ticket prices in full knowledge that no-one can answer it yet. A baby could destroy this as an anti-HS2 argument. This deliberately makes the questioner - and by extension those that oppose HS2 - look silly. The end result is that more people support HS2. I'm a good example. I'm actually somewhat sceptical about HS2, given the benefits versus the costs, and I wonder whether it is the best way to spend so much money. But the arguments posted by those claiming to oppose HS2 are so idiotic and easy to see through that I find myself instinctively supporting the project after reading this forum.


That’s similar to me – I was against it but the reasons given were so threadbare/ disingenuous/ weak that I came round to supporting it (even though it won’t personally benefit me – it might have if there was still going to be a stop at Meadowhall though!).

I’m not saying it’s perfect, I don't think anyone is saying it's perfect, but there’s a clear problem (main lines north out of London at/approaching capacity, increased population, current routes unable to cope with much more tinkering) and HS2 will solve much of that.

It’s not the answer to everything but it looks like being the only option on the table, so it’s a case of backing it or struggling on with existing infrastructure – in which case I back it.

It's taken over a decade to get this far - getting the crayons out and trying to create an alternative "perfect" high speed railway would be a waste of time now - I think we have to accept HS2.

Oh God. So from that image, they want to re-open Sheffield Victoria, which breaks connectivity with existing services. Fix that problem by building a 3rd station in Sheffield - which from geography would almost certainly have to be a mega-expensive tunneled station. Then they want to run a 'high speed' line along the very curvy existing line out from Victoria towards Woodhead (good luck with that)

It’s funny how people are against HS2 for not integrating with the conventional railway (e.g. there would be platforms at Leeds/ Manchester Piccadilly, but not within the current station footprint/ not connected to existing lines) but were happy for HS2 to serve a whole separate station at Sheffield.

Victoria to Midland isn’t a short walk (like Curzon Street to Moor Street / New Street would be in Birmingham) but a whole other site (on a viaduct, no tram integration etc)…

...best part of a twenty minute walk along a fairly grotty route on the edge of the city centre (negotiating the various overpasses/ dual carriageways)...

…but, hey, Victoria was part of the 1960s railway so it gets an automatic pass (whereas building HS2 platforms on a brand new alignment into Leeds - where the buffer stops are within touching distance of the current platforms 16/17 would be A Bad Thing because it’s a new route and only things listed in Bradshaws can be accepted!).

One of the complaints about HS2 is that Coventry would loose out on the service frequency that it's got

Coventry is a funny one.

One justified criticism of HS2 is that it won’t directly serve some places that currently punch above their weight in terms of the London service that they get because they are an intermediate stop on a longer service – Wakefield/ Stockport/ Coventry (and Chesterfield, in the days when the plan was for HS2 to serve Meadowhall).

They wouldn’t justify the London frequency/lengths that they currently get if it wasn’t because they are a stop on the line from Leeds/ Manchester/ Birmingham etc. Run the Leeds/ Manchester/ Birmingham services on a new faster alignment to London and you don’t need to run it via these “secondary” places (maybe that’s why someone from Preston is so against it?).

On the one hand, that frees up more space for local trains on those lines (e.g. the discrepancy between the Intercity services and the local ones timed for 75mph DMUs through Wakefield) but I accept that it probably means that some places won’t enjoy the frequency/current journey times to London that they get right now.

However, if the anti-HS2 argument is that “we should upgrade the Chiltern line to take more of the London – Birmingham passengers to free up more capacity on the WCML for Manchester/ Scottish services”, that seems to be agreeing with the idea of relegating Coventry to poorer services… anti-HS2 people can’t have it both ways!
 

Peter Kelford

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Funny how the “autonomous road vehicles/ everyone working from home/ doing everything online/ never having to leave the house” arguments are only used against HS2 – presumably these advances in technology won’t affect (say) the Woodhead line any of the other Usual Suspects that people want us to re-open?

(ignoring the fact that most people having been online for twenty years or more and rail use has roughly doubled in that time, so the idea that doing most things on the internet will mean we don’t need trains seems… thin)

Haven't we figured out that what I'm saying is that people won't buy 2x more expensive tickets as essential time-pressured travel goes down, not travel in general?
 

Peter Kelford

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(and the idea that eighteen 400m long trains per hour will only be used by the wealthiest 1% of society and no "ordinary" people?)

Of course they will be used by many, but the 'working class man' won't benefit. It's the 40% ratepayers who will benefit but not the families or less wealthy end of the middle class.
 

Peter Kelford

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So your solution for the WCML would be

  • 110mph HSTs (they can’t tilt so would be restricted to this top speed)
  • 125mph 221s
  • 140mph 390s

…can you see how poor a use of paths that would be? Lines with uniform speeds can achieve many more trains per hour - the killer is when you try to mix 75mph/ 100mph trains with 125mph trains (or faster) - which is why the Victorian lines are struggling at the moment.

Great selective quotation. I did mention CML upgrades to augment capacity. The 110mph HSTs can be run on an uprgraded CML at 200km/h. The 221s could be sent down both routes.
 

6Gman

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Haven't we figured out that what I'm saying is that people won't buy 2x more expensive tickets as essential time-pressured travel goes down, not travel in general?

You're begging the question (in the correct sense of the expression).

Your case is predicated on tickets being twice as expensive; do you have evidence of that being the case?
 

6Gman

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Of course they will be used by many, but the 'working class man' won't benefit. It's the 40% ratepayers who will benefit but not the families or less wealthy end of the middle class.

And your evidence for this assertion is ... ?
 

Peter Kelford

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You're begging the question (in the correct sense of the expression).

Your case is predicated on tickets being twice as expensive; do you have evidence of that being the case?

What else will they be? In the absence of any more information, I will have to assume that they will cost a fortune.
 

EM2

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Haven't we figured out that what I'm saying is that people won't buy 2x more expensive tickets as essential time-pressured travel goes down, not travel in general?
Why do you believe that tickets will be twice as expensive?
Of course they will be used by many, but the 'working class man' won't benefit. It's the 40% ratepayers who will benefit but not the families or less wealthy end of the middle class.
Again, I point to the existing case of HS1, which has plenty of families and 'working class men' using it.
 

Ianno87

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Of course they will be used by many, but the 'working class man' won't benefit. It's the 40% ratepayers who will benefit but not the families or less wealthy end of the middle class.

That's funny... the biggest beneficiaries of HS2 are likely to be the London commuters of Watford, MK, Northampton and Rugby. Who, for the most part, are not 40% tax payers.
 
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