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EU Elections 2019

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AlterEgo

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Perhaps a better explanation is that most people in this country really don't give a hoot about the EU or how it works, because they don't feel it's an institution relevant to them.
 
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anme

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Perhaps a better explanation is that most people in this country really don't give a hoot about the EU or how it works, because they don't feel it's an institution relevant to them.

So why do so many suddenly have a strong opinion about it now?
 

NoMorePacers

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It’s easy to blame the EU for things that are either the government’s, or capitalism’s fault. That’s why (some) people like to go on about it.
 

anme

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I guess the British are soon going to learn the benefits of being in the EU, whether they like it or not.
 

AlterEgo

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So why do so many suddenly have a strong opinion about it now?

Because the question of Brexit is a proxy war between ideological sides of localism/nativism, and post-industrialism/globalism. Deep down, it is a visceral question and we all know it.
 

Giugiaro

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Perhaps a better explanation is that most people in this country really don't give a hoot about the EU or how it works, because they don't feel it's an institution relevant to them.

I've noticed that regional elections suffer from the same "punish the government" kind of treatment, or at least that's what I think from how people analysed the previous elections.
But why really? Do regional politics depend so much on the national budget to work? Usually, in Portugal, the easiest kind of political performance one can assess is the Parish and Municipal powers, since their impact can be more easily felt on a daily basis. So much so that independent groups have thrived in regional elections where in general elections they are usually ignored (looking at you Change UK - The Independent Group!)
 

AlterEgo

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I've noticed that regional elections suffer from the same "punish the government" kind of treatment, or at least that's what I think from how people analysed the previous elections.

People don't tend to view the EU elections as a regional election. It barely registers on many people's radars; only about a third of eligible people vote in them. Most people do not know what an MEP does nor how their work affects them, so those that do vote may choose to send a message to central (Westminster) government by endorsing or rejecting candidates from certain parties.
 

anme

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Because the question of Brexit is a proxy war between ideological sides of localism/nativism, and post-industrialism/globalism. Deep down, it is a visceral question and we all know it.

I don't agree with that. It's actually a simple and concrete issue.
 

edwin_m

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Many people seem to think the EU is the source of many of Britain's problems, yet the low turnout at EU elections suggests people really know that it is Westminster government that has by far the most impact on their lives. Voters know that local authorities in Britain have been systematically starved of powers and funding since the Thatcher era, with a small reversal in recent years. Once local authorities have done the things they are legally required to do they have little money or energy left to do things that might actually make a difference.
 

Groningen

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You ask yourself how independent Nigel Farage can work in the UKIP and Brexit Party from Arron Banks. Who is really in charge?
 

Giugiaro

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Voters know that local authorities in Britain have been systematically starved of powers and funding since the Thatcher era, with a small reversal in recent years. Once local authorities have done the things they are legally required to do they have little money or energy left to do things that might actually make a difference.

Now it makes sense. No wonder the local election results were such a big deal.
 

Giugiaro

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Spaceu has launched the euandi2019 Voting Advice Application.
Not only does it help make the choice on the party for the EU Elections on a national basis, but it also helps compare your results with parties from other EU countries, as a curiosity feature.
https://euandi2019.eu/survey/default/EN

Don't forget to compare the statements of your matched party(ies) with that of its/their corresponding EU Parliamentary group and Commission Candidate (Spitzenkandidaten). Some details are on the first few posts of this thread.
 

DynamicSpirit

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EFA(Green + SNP + PC ) - Jean Lambert(G) ,Ian Hudghton(SNP) , Jill Evans(PC)

The SNP are part of the Green group in the EU Parliament? Seriously? Is this really the same SNP that keeps pushing for a massive road-building program? The same SNP that has been trying to get people to drive to hospital instead of taking public transport where possible - by providing free subsidised parking to motorists, but not providing any help to people who try to use more sustainable means of getting to hospital.?

On the other hand, I was also going to say, the same SNP that wants to encourage people to fly more (by abolishing air passenger duties) - but it seems that the SNP may have finally seen sense on that one.

SNP said:
Meeting the new climate targets will require difficult decisions and the Scottish Parliament needs to be prepared for that – and we have come to the conclusion that the economic benefits we sought through our Air Departure Tax policy are not compatible with our new emissions reductions targets.

This is an important step in meeting our tougher climate targets and rising to the climate emergency challenge, and the government has not taken this decision lightly.
 

radamfi

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The SNP has continued with bus deregulation despite having powers to end it.
 

Groningen

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So it seems in a poll quoted on Dutch radio 1 that the Conservative are at 7 and the Brexit Party at 37 %. No mention of Labour and other remaining parties.
 

DanDaDriver

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Spaceu has launched the euandi2019 Voting Advice Application.
Not only does it help make the choice on the party for the EU Elections on a national basis, but it also helps compare your results with parties from other EU countries, as a curiosity feature.
https://euandi2019.eu/survey/default/EN

Don't forget to compare the statements of your matched party(ies) with that of its/their corresponding EU Parliamentary group and Commission Candidate (Spitzenkandidaten). Some details are on the first few posts of this thread.

Thanks, that’s a really useful tool!
 

Typhoon

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According to YouGov, only 5% of the electorate can name a single one of their MEPs.
I'm not surprised, you don't put a cross against an individual name. You might vote for a particular party, but who that elects is not at all obvious.

I could tell you over half of those who were elected on the night in my constituency (mainly because several of them are 'names') but I think some of those have since been replaced. By whom? When? No idea. The reason why the voting system is, in my opinion, flawed.
 

edwin_m

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I've been trying to think of a better method which allows voting for a name rather than a party. This is particularly important in this era of Brexit where both "main" parties are putting forward candidates with widely diverging views, probably explaining why people having strong opinions on the issue are going for parties that are effectively campaigning on a single issue.

The problem with multi-member constituencies is that generally people get as many votes as there are seats available in that constituency. So most parties will just put forward that number of candidates and people will vote for a straight party list. The best answer I've come up with so far would be for people to have, say, three votes in a constituency with five seats. Then parties would only put up three candidates for fear of splitting their own vote (unless they were confident of overwhelming support) and this would leave some space for minority views to get a look-in. I guess the risk is that some candidates might get elected on very small vote shares.
 

DarloRich

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Spaceu has launched the euandi2019 Voting Advice Application.
Not only does it help make the choice on the party for the EU Elections on a national basis, but it also helps compare your results with parties from other EU countries, as a curiosity feature.
https://euandi2019.eu/survey/default/EN

Don't forget to compare the statements of your matched party(ies) with that of its/their corresponding EU Parliamentary group and Commission Candidate (Spitzenkandidaten). Some details are on the first few posts of this thread.

that is very interesting.

According to YouGov, only 5% of the electorate can name a single one of their MEPs.

I could not name my MEP and I consider myself well informed politically! I wonder if that is because MEP's are not given any respect in or time with the media.
 

hexagon789

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The problem with multi-member constituencies is that generally people get as many votes as there are seats available in that constituency. So most parties will just put forward that number of candidates and people will vote for a straight party list. The best answer I've come up with so far would be for people to have, say, three votes in a constituency with five seats. Then parties would only put up three candidates for fear of splitting their own vote (unless they were confident of overwhelming support) and this would leave some space for minority views to get a look-in. I guess the risk is that some candidates might get elected on very small vote shares.

How would you allocate seats under that?
 

DarloRich

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I'd say between 24 and 28

I agree. There are 2 issues to explain this:

The spread on the polls is very large but with an average of around 32% they should pick up a large number of seats.
The pro remain vote is split 3 ways between Lib Dems, Green and Change rather than coalescing around one point as voters can on the pro Brexit side.

The Conservatives and Labour are in for a bad night. The Tories have lost lots of their supporters to Brexit while Labour have lost supporters both ways! The Lib Dems may well come second on about 15%

No idea who I will vote for. It wont be Tory, Farage, UKIP or Labour.
 

GusB

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The pro-remain vote will be split 4 ways north of the border, with the SNP as the additional option. I'm not sure if the LibDems have been forgiven enough to gain enough votes. I wouldn't want to vote for the unknown quantity that is Change, leaving me with the choice of SNP or Green.
 

hexagon789

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I agree. There are 2 issues to explain this:

The spread on the polls is very large but with an average of around 32% they should pick up a large number of seats.
The pro remain vote is split 3 ways between Lib Dems, Green and Change rather than coalescing around one point as voters can on the pro Brexit side.

The Conservatives and Labour are in for a bad night. The Tories have lost lots of their supporters to Brexit while Labour have lost supporters both ways! The Lib Dems may well come second on about 15%

No idea who I will vote for. It wont be Tory, Farage, UKIP or Labour.

It's a very uncertain election, all that's likely is that the Brexit party come first, LDs second is possible but I think it'll be Lab; LDs third, Cons 4th, Greens 5th, UKIP 6th.

If I was pressed on seats I'd say:

Brexit Party: 24-28
Labour: 12-14
Liberal Democrats: 10-12
Conservatives: 6-8
Greens: 3-4
SNP: 2
Plaid Cymru: 1
Scottish Greens: 0
Sinn Fein: 1
Democratic Unionist: 1
Social Democratic & Labour: 1
Ulster Unionist: 0
 

Typhoon

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This is particularly important in this era of Brexit where both "main" parties are putting forward candidates with widely diverging views, probably explaining why people having strong opinions on the issue are going for parties that are effectively campaigning on a single issue
True. When I looked at the list of candidates, I can't stand the one at the top of one major party's list so I voted for a party that might defeat him. On reflection, he's likely to get in any way, so I am really voting for number 2 or 3 on that parties list, whose views might be closer to my own.

Basically, I could do without 'List' systems.
 
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