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First Group: General Discussion

TheGrandWazoo

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We have had this discussion before, What do you sell?
1. - Good performing US operations, use proceeds to pay down debt and Pension deficits in UK, becoming a solely UK (& Ireland)based Co?
2. - Sell (some) UK operations, retain profitable US operations.
If option 2, what do you do with the loss makers/barely profitable operating units?

They could just split the US ops from U.K. and float it off (demerge) as an IPO. Even within that, they could (as Winston has argued) sell Greyhound off separately either with its properties or without.

Given the mess Grayling is in, could be the time to renegotiate or exit UK Rail too.
 
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winston270twm

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Aurora did the same thing.

Given Hauser and Gregory’s utterings, is be surprised if the status quo is maintained and perhaps that will be their argument. “You don’t need CC - we’re gonna cut out the rail and cleve U.K. from US?”

I'm sure the FGP's Chairman 'Wolfhart Hauser' will be the first one to clear his desk. I suspect, FGP will have to accept 1 or 2 of CC's proposed new board members.
The other thing cc could be wanting is what they suggested before - the hiving off of the undervalued US operations.

The only issue with hiving off the US ops, is that they are the most valuable & biggest generators of profit for group. Worst case scenario, I'd entertain ditching Greyhound & retain at least a majority stake in First Student & Transit. Whether that's possible, is another story…..
 

TheGrandWazoo

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I'm sure the FGP's Chairman 'Wolfhart Hauser' will be the first one to clear his desk. I suspect, FGP will have to accept 1 or 2 of CC's proposed new board members.


The only issue with hiving off the US ops, is that they are the most valuable & biggest generators of profit for group. Worst case scenario, I'd entertain ditching Greyhound & retain at least a majority stake in First Student & Transit. Whether that's possible, is another story…..

FGP has that issue but if you do split the US ops and obtain the cash for them, it will help pay down the debt though I can’t see the leaking bucket of TPE (and SWR to a lesser extent) being retained in that instance.

CC won’t care about profit generators. For them, it’s a quick asset strip and goodbye!
 

tbtc

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We have had this discussion before, What do you sell?
1. - Good performing US operations, use proceeds to pay down debt and Pension deficits in UK, becoming a solely UK (& Ireland)based Co?
2. - Sell (some) UK operations, retain profitable US operations.
If option 2, what do you do with the loss makers/barely profitable operating units?

This is the problem that we keep coming back to - people suggest a list of the badly performing bits of UK bus - people forget that you're not going to raise tens of millions of pounds for marginal/loss-making businesses - hence the effective giving away of some areas (Northampton etc) or "fire sale" prices for other areas (Manchester etc).

If they are serious about raising money from UK bus then I'd suggest that they have to look at surrendering one of the big three (Glasgow, Leeds, Bristol) but it takes two to tango and who is big/ rich/ interested enough for any of those? Notice nobody has been announced for the other two bits of Greater Manchester yet (despite the flurry of speculation a couple of months ago).

Stagecoach would have major competition issues in Glasgow, minor competition problems in Bristol, probably okay in Leeds. National Express always get talked about but seem happy with their long established West Midlands and coaching operations (with the token Dundee operation being the exception that tests the rule). Arriva seem to be cutting rather than growing. Beyond that there's probably only really Go Ahead... but then if there's only one or two interested parties, you're not going to get a competitive bid (as the DfT are learning from the rail franchises, now that fewer and fewer companies are interested in bidding).

Otherwise it's probably a case of letting some other "marginal" operations take the Manchester approach and hand them over to other companies for a fraction of the book value just for the sake of making the average remaining operations look more healthy (Potteries, South Yorkshire etc).
 

overthewater

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IF First sell the big guns bangs goes the good profits and doesn't help it in the long run. Nat express I suspect would jump at Glasgow and Aberdeen since it would fit in with its current model, No change and city work, plus links into Dundee. Same could be for Leicester and Bristol.

I think it's a big double handed for that CC are saying US stuff bar greyhound is under performing, is sounds like there got ideas to get what it wants and for first it isn't good.
 

winston270twm

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This is the problem that we keep coming back to - people suggest a list of the badly performing bits of UK bus - people forget that you're not going to raise tens of millions of pounds for marginal/loss-making businesses - hence the effective giving away of some areas (Northampton etc) or "fire sale" prices for other areas (Manchester etc).

If they are serious about raising money from UK bus then I'd suggest that they have to look at surrendering one of the big three (Glasgow, Leeds, Bristol) but it takes two to tango and who is big/ rich/ interested enough for any of those? Notice nobody has been announced for the other two bits of Greater Manchester yet (despite the flurry of speculation a couple of months ago).

Stagecoach would have major competition issues in Glasgow, minor competition problems in Bristol, probably okay in Leeds. National Express always get talked about but seem happy with their long established West Midlands and coaching operations (with the token Dundee operation being the exception that tests the rule). Arriva seem to be cutting rather than growing. Beyond that there's probably only really Go Ahead... but then if there's only one or two interested parties, you're not going to get a competitive bid (as the DfT are learning from the rail franchises, now that fewer and fewer companies are interested in bidding).

Otherwise it's probably a case of letting some other "marginal" operations take the Manchester approach and hand them over to other companies for a fraction of the book value just for the sake of making the average remaining operations look more healthy (Potteries, South Yorkshire etc).

The reason the Manchester depots sales have stalled, is that they are not very attractive businesses, the depots need a lot of money throwing at them to turnaround their fortunes. They are also located in an area that could go down the quality contracts route.

Another potential scenario for First Group woes could be to look at a friendly merger with a rival (UK or European)
 

richw

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chief investment officer and founding partner James Rasteh claimed one-third of First Bus routes in the UK are unprofitable,

But many of these unprofitable routes are social lifelines for residents. It either needs LA subsidies or the bus companies need to subsidise the 1/3 unprofitable with the 2/3 profitable routes. Or raise fares?
 

Robertj21a

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But many of these unprofitable routes are social lifelines for residents. It either needs LA subsidies or the bus companies need to subsidise the 1/3 unprofitable with the 2/3 profitable routes. Or raise fares?

With First Group in such a poor financial state, and local authorities desperately short of cash, I doubt they have many options - and simply increasing fares above an 'acceptable' level will just drive away even more passengers.
 

Cesarcollie

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My personal local dream? Perhaps First's latest recruit can actually achieve the sale of their Chelmsford depot with VP for housing (and make the local council happy, for once). Might that enable them to let go of their hapless south/mid Essex ops? Everyone is waiting for something, more or less patiently. Even Arriva, with a partner in tow, might then complete the missing part of their home counties doughnut that has been outstanding for decades. And we can all focus on developing a sensible bus network for the benefit of passengers, rather than just feeding inflated egos. The Mets have their mayors to sort out the mess, but the rest of the country needs something . . . I'm not sure who needs First though (well barring their pensioners and Head Office, but do they need UKBus)?

May be I'm barking up the wrong tree, but I'd be looking at property disposals not necessarily a going concern.

It isn't just a game of real-life monopoly for overgrown children, fun though it is.

If you close Chelmsford that’s quite a lot of buses to find a home for - irrespective of what you think of First Essex!
 

Cesarcollie

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This is the problem that we keep coming back to - people suggest a list of the badly performing bits of UK bus - people forget that you're not going to raise tens of millions of pounds for marginal/loss-making businesses - hence the effective giving away of some areas (Northampton etc) or "fire sale" prices for other areas (Manchester etc).

If they are serious about raising money from UK bus then I'd suggest that they have to look at surrendering one of the big three (Glasgow, Leeds, Bristol) but it takes two to tango and who is big/ rich/ interested enough for any of those? Notice nobody has been announced for the other two bits of Greater Manchester yet (despite the flurry of speculation a couple of months ago).

Stagecoach would have major competition issues in Glasgow, minor competition problems in Bristol, probably okay in Leeds. National Express always get talked about but seem happy with their long established West Midlands and coaching operations (with the token Dundee operation being the exception that tests the rule). Arriva seem to be cutting rather than growing. Beyond that there's probably only really Go Ahead... but then if there's only one or two interested parties, you're not going to get a competitive bid (as the DfT are learning from the rail franchises, now that fewer and fewer companies are interested in bidding).

Otherwise it's probably a case of letting some other "marginal" operations take the Manchester approach and hand them over to other companies for a fraction of the book value just for the sake of making the average remaining operations look more healthy (Potteries, South Yorkshire etc).

Of course the other benefit of getting rid of poorly performing operations is that, though it won’t raise much, it will reduce the need for vehicle capex going forward.
 

cactustwirly

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This is the problem that we keep coming back to - people suggest a list of the badly performing bits of UK bus - people forget that you're not going to raise tens of millions of pounds for marginal/loss-making businesses - hence the effective giving away of some areas (Northampton etc) or "fire sale" prices for other areas (Manchester etc).

If they are serious about raising money from UK bus then I'd suggest that they have to look at surrendering one of the big three (Glasgow, Leeds, Bristol) but it takes two to tango and who is big/ rich/ interested enough for any of those? Notice nobody has been announced for the other two bits of Greater Manchester yet (despite the flurry of speculation a couple of months ago).

Stagecoach would have major competition issues in Glasgow, minor competition problems in Bristol, probably okay in Leeds. National Express always get talked about but seem happy with their long established West Midlands and coaching operations (with the token Dundee operation being the exception that tests the rule). Arriva seem to be cutting rather than growing. Beyond that there's probably only really Go Ahead... but then if there's only one or two interested parties, you're not going to get a competitive bid (as the DfT are learning from the rail franchises, now that fewer and fewer companies are interested in bidding).

Otherwise it's probably a case of letting some other "marginal" operations take the Manchester approach and hand them over to other companies for a fraction of the book value just for the sake of making the average remaining operations look more healthy (Potteries, South Yorkshire etc).

Which is a bad idea for First group, selling one of those wouldn't raise enough to clear the debt, so you'd be still paying it off.
But you'll have less cash flow, because of the reduced profitability of UK bus, making the problem worse rather than better.
 

winston270twm

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Breakup speculation is back on the cards, along with a stock upgrade and higher share price target from RBC Capital:
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.u...-5050-following-activist-pressure-220219.html

RBC puts chances of FirstGroup break-up at 50/50 following activist pressure
11:47 14 May 2019
However, the bank upgraded the stock to ‘outperform’ from ‘sector perform’, saying disposals could generate “considerable value” for the transport group
757z468_1557830884_First-Rail.jpg

Analysts also upped their target price for the South Western Railway operator to 160p from 95p


Recent pressure from activist investors has put the chance of a break up at FirstGroup PLC (LON:FGP) at around 50/50, according to analysts at RBC.

However, in a note on Tuesday the bank upgraded the stock to ‘outperform’ from ‘sector perform’, saying disposals at the FTSE 250 transport operator could generate “considerable value”.

READ: Everybody off: activist calls for FirstGroup board to step down
On Monday, US-based hedge fund Coast Capital Management (CCM), which last week upped the stake held by its Hermes-Golden vehicle to 9.77%, proposed ousting six of the company’s eleven board members including current chief executive Matthew Gregory and chairman Wolfhart Hauser.

James Rasteh, a partner at the New York-based hedge fund, told The Sunday Times that the current directors ranged from “shades of super destructive to extraordinarily under-qualified”. He wants shareholders to replace the board with seven of Coast’s nominees, including former Tory transport minister Steve Norris as chairman.

CCM’s stance, alongside an increasing amount of the company’s shares being controlled by institutional investors (63.1%), was also increasing the chance of a change occurring, RBC said.

Analysts also upped their target price to 160p from 95p, adding that if the pressure from activist investors continued they saw scope for the shares to rise to 245p.

However, if no change occurred RBC said the shares could fall back to below 80p if the group “overbids for another loss-making rail contract” in addition to its South Western Railway and TransPennine Express franchises, or if CCM decided to offload its now sizeable stake in the business.

The bullish stance helped push the shares 1.9% higher to 117.4p in late-morning.
 

ivanhoe

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I think Grand Wazoo made the valid point that UK bus generates a lot of cash BUT is capital intensive(spends a lot of cash). Just selling off portions, or indeed one of the big (profitable)areas does nothing to solve its problems. Selling off say Bristol, would probably mean off loading some of its newer capital intensive buses. Less well performing areas could be left with even older stock as the cascade of buses becomes less prevalent.
I see the splitting of the businesses North America and UK as the only possible way of getting some shareholder value. However, it would be the new North American Company that will benefit more. You can’t dump all of the excess share premium, which was generated by the original sale to First , into the American Company. Unless of course, the whole point of the exercise is to confine FG to history, as it is sold off in large clumps.
We are all guilty sometimes of underestimating how well First is performing in areas such as Bristol,Leeds and Leicester. There is a school of thought that suggests, get out of Manchester ASAP, and concentrate in those areas which generate good revenues and provide the necessary cash to feed the Capital Programme and give shareholders some Raison d’etre for holding stock. There is no future Government out there that has specifically said that buses will be nationalised!
 

tbtc

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IF First sell the big guns bangs goes the good profits and doesn't help it in the long run. Nat express I suspect would jump at Glasgow and Aberdeen since it would fit in with its current model, No change and city work, plus links into Dundee. Same could be for Leicester and Bristol

I don't think that the fact an operation currently has "hoppers" for exact fare is going to be much of a consideration in a multi million pound purchase of a bus company - with the move to contactless in the last couple of years (and general increases in single fares to encourage people to buy day/weekly tickets), the amount of money being paid in cash will be a shrinking percentage in future regardless.

The reason the Manchester depots sales have stalled, is that they are not very attractive businesses, the depots need a lot of money throwing at them to turnaround their fortunes. They are also located in an area that could go down the quality contracts route

With the exception of the "quality contracts", the same could be said of many of First's operations, which has put First in a tricky situation.

Of course the other benefit of getting rid of poorly performing operations is that, though it won’t raise much, it will reduce the need for vehicle capex going forward.

True, but then getting rid of the "dumping ground" operations has an affect upon where else you can lumber with fifteen year old buses - the current business model seems to rely on giving Glasgow/ Leeds/ Bristol some fairly shiny new toys on a regular basis with the older stuff cascaded away to East Anglia/ Doncaster/ Swansea. Sell off the poorly performing areas and what happens to that business model?

Which is a bad idea for First group, selling one of those wouldn't raise enough to clear the debt, so you'd be still paying it off.
But you'll have less cash flow, because of the reduced profitability of UK bus, making the problem worse rather than better.

This is the problem - I'm just not sure that the individual bits of First are worth more (than the collective value of the company). What can they sell off that they will be able to pay off a chunk of their debts, that will be attractive enough for other people to pay good money for and won't affect First's future profits too much? I'm not sure that there is really anything. It's either sell off "crown jewels" (which mean less future income) or dump the unwanted areas (and they aren't going to raise a lot of money for operations like Doncaster).

Breaking up UK bus operations seems to make little sense to me, as things currently stand. Maybe the answer is to see if the American stuff will be worth more as a stand alone venture, but the UK rail franchises don't look in amazing health!

We are all guilty sometimes of underestimating how well First is performing in areas such as Bristol,Leeds and Leicester. There is a school of thought that suggests, get out of Manchester ASAP, and concentrate in those areas which generate good revenues and provide the necessary cash to feed the Capital Programme and give shareholders some Raison d’etre for holding stock

True, but First don't seem to be replicating that elsewhere - because the "Leeds" model is unsustainable or because they can't find the resources to try to transform things in Sheffield/ Southampton/ Stoke?
 

DragonEast

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I'm just not sure that a "black and white" analysis in terms of good and poor areas, whilst it makes for easy comments, gives the whole picture.

Even Glasgow and West of England (as well as Leeds) have their operational problems, perhaps as much as some "poor areas". On the other hand perhaps there are poor areas (Berkshire comes to mind) which have more or less successfully cut their suit to fit their cloth.

Two things perhaps stand out for me, regarding First Bus:
1. I wonder if local management have to spend so much time meeting the demands of Head Office, that it simply leaves them insufficient time for local management, and it shows. All the big bus operators have the same problem, more or less; but with First it seems worse. Of course we could argue that with more poorly performing areas, that's why. But may be it doesn't help. One size doesn't fit all, which seems to be an article of faith for every Head Office.
2. I mentioned Berkshire above, as an area that has cut its suit to fit its cloth, even though that has meant leaving town services to competitors and concentrating on their Airport operations. That seems to be a recurring theme to me around the local shires (at least in the South of England although I have little recent experience of elsewhere), for all the "big boys". They all have examples. In any commercial operation, change is the key to unlock profitability. There are two ways to deal with a public service: the most obvious is to maintain (or build on) what you have, and which causes the least problems with your customers and the all-important politicians; the alternative is to concentrate on what you think you're best at and leave the rest to others (very unpopular). The size (or income) of the operation is less important, it's the approach that matters. Locally, not just with First, but I could point to Stagecoach and Arriva examples too, we seem to be lumbered with the dinosaurs. (Yes they have reduced the networks, at the periphery; not the source of the major problem). As usual the climate is to blame: in the (southern) Shires the biggest problem is the lack of investment in the highway network, and the bigger your bus network, the harder (or impossible) you make the job for yourself. Even with an ocean of investment waiting to be spent, you couldn't manage it.
 

Surreyman

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I'm just not sure that a "black and white" analysis in terms of good and poor areas, whilst it makes for easy comments, gives the whole picture.

Even Glasgow and West of England (as well as Leeds) have their operational problems, perhaps as much as some "poor areas". On the other hand perhaps there are poor areas (Berkshire comes to mind) which have more or less successfully cut their suit to fit their cloth.

Two things perhaps stand out for me, regarding First Bus:
1. I wonder if local management have to spend so much time meeting the demands of Head Office, that it simply leaves them insufficient time for local management, and it shows. All the big bus operators have the same problem, more or less; but with First it seems worse. Of course we could argue that with more poorly performing areas, that's why. But may be it doesn't help. One size doesn't fit all, which seems to be an article of faith for every Head Office.
2. I mentioned Berkshire above, as an area that has cut its suit to fit its cloth, even though that has meant leaving town services to competitors and concentrating on their Airport operations. That seems to be a recurring theme to me around the local shires (at least in the South of England although I have little recent experience of elsewhere), for all the "big boys". They all have examples. In any commercial operation, change is the key to unlock profitability. There are two ways to deal with a public service: the most obvious is to maintain (or build on) what you have, and which causes the least problems with your customers and the all-important politicians; the alternative is to concentrate on what you think you're best at and leave the rest to others (very unpopular). The size (or income) of the operation is less important, it's the approach that matters. Locally, not just with First, but I could point to Stagecoach and Arriva examples too, we seem to be lumbered with the dinosaurs. (Yes they have reduced the networks, at the periphery; not the source of the major problem). As usual the climate is to blame: in the (southern) Shires the biggest problem is the lack of investment in the highway network, and the bigger your bus network, the harder (or impossible) you make the job for yourself. Even with an ocean of investment waiting to be spent, you couldn't manage it.
Berkshire is an interesting one, as you say, cut backs in recent years (probably long overdue)but posting a recent half decent operating profit, I have always believed that the real money spinner must be the Reading - Heathrow Coach service, (Based at Reading Buses depot) of course there is no way of knowing, as the company doesn't divulge exactly how & where they make money.
The other factor must be staffing and rates of pay - the employment honeypot of Heathrow and surrounds is literally 20 mins drive from the centre of Slough.
 

Jordan Adam

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IF First sell the big guns bangs goes the good profits and doesn't help it in the long run. Nat express I suspect would jump at Glasgow and Aberdeen since it would fit in with its current model, No change and city work, plus links into Dundee. Same could be for Leicester and Bristol.

I think it's a big double handed for that CC are saying US stuff bar greyhound is under performing, is sounds like there got ideas to get what it wants and for first it isn't good.

The acquisition of Aberdeen would also put Nat Ex in quite a good position to take on Stagecoach's services between the two cities, Nax Ex entering Angus has been rumoured for quite a while now.
 

overthewater

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The acquisition of Aberdeen would also put Nat Ex in quite a good position to take on Stagecoach's services between the two cities, Nax Ex entering Angus has been rumoured for quite a while now.

If Nat Express started a route to Forfar or Arbroath, then I can see Stagecoach starting a new city route.
 

Jordan Adam

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If Nat Express started a route to Forfar or Arbroath, then I can see Stagecoach starting a new city route.

Possibly, however i think Nat Ex could do more damage in Angus than Stagecoach could in Dundee. It's the same when it comes to Aberdeen, Stagecoach have been hopeless when it comes to trying to compete with First in the city, whereas if First started a service to one of the towns/villages just outside Aberdeen it would probably pick up. Albeit First wouldn't even bother to try....
 

TheGrandWazoo

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But isn’t that clear with the variations amongst how opcos are run, with certain opcos seemingly having more free reign than others?
This is the old cliche about having to do what ever comes from Aberdeen...

The fact is that among all of the OpCos, you will have a number of variables. You have the relative economic health and vibrancy - head to the Potteries and you see towns like Burslem or Rotherham that are frankly on their arses! Then you have the local issues that affect particular OpCos - in Greater Manchester, it's clear that you have some really depressed towns (like Oldham and Rochdale) compounded by the affect of the extended Metrolink.

Local issues extend elsewhere such as the local political scene. That varies from threats on franchising (doubtless soaking up management time) through to the relative enthusiasm of the local council. The difference in local authorities to actively supporting buses range from supporting non commercial services, decent bus priority (and enforcement) and actively promoting bus use.

Above all of that, you have to concede the ability of the local management teams, both senior management but also even the front line managers. You will have some superb managers (at all levels) but also some who are less skilled. And then you have the local competition - some of whom have been very cannily competed without even seeming to do so, or that the local First team seem paralysed.

I could go on but it shows in the differences in approach, service delivery, and investment across the First empire.
 

WatcherZero

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Nothing like a good bus war to sort out improvements. Does anyone have the full piece https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/05/14/market-reportfirstgroup-high-amid-break-up-talk/amp/ ?

Problem is usual result of a bus war is that after a brief period the service is worse than it was before the war started as the commercial return and therefore justification for additional investment have been eroded by price reductions or consecutive years of losses.
 

Volvodart

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Property tycoon Robert Tchenguiz backing shake-up at First Group that is being pushed by activist US hedge fund

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money...oon-Robert-Tchenguiz-backing-shake-Group.html

Property tycoon Robert Tchenguiz backing shake-up at First Group that is being pushed by activist US hedge fund
By FRANCESCA WASHTELL FOR THE DAILY MAIL

PUBLISHED: 21:50, 17 May 2019 | UPDATED: 21:50, 17 May 2019

Property tycoon Robert Tchenguiz is backing a shake-up at First Group that is being pushed by an activist US hedge fund.

Speaking exclusively to the Mail, Tchenguiz said he 'very recently' bought roughly 0.5 per cent of First Group's shares and fully supports the rail and bus company's biggest investor, Coast Capital, which wants to oust most of its board.

Coast, led by chief investment officer James Rasteh, owns almost 10 per cent of First Group's stock and claims that its management 'lack the operational and turnaround experience necessary to address challenges in underperforming divisions'.

Flamboyant property mogul Tchenguiz, whose empire with his brother Vincent was once collectively estimated at £4.5 billion, said: 'Coast is not trying to take control of this company, all they're trying to do is highlight that management has not done a very good job and proposed a new management team.'

The 58-year-old said: 'The ideal outcome is either for the company to have a strategic review or allow the new proposed management to come in and create more value for all stakeholders – because this management has proven they can't do it.'

Coast is due to unveil more of its turnaround plans for First Group on a website – called SaveFirstgroup.co.uk – next week.

A First Group spokesman said: 'The board is focused on delivering shareholder value and is confident that the company has the right team and the right experience and plans in place to do so.'

https://www.savefirstgroup.co.uk/
 

winston270twm

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The acquisition of Aberdeen would also put Nat Ex in quite a good position to take on Stagecoach's services between the two cities, Nax Ex entering Angus has been rumoured for quite a while now.

NX have operated in Angus previously via Wishaws of Friockhiem but was sold off a couple of years back.
 

winston270twm

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Indeed, however there's more recently been talk of them taking on core Stagecoach services.

Does Dock St have capacity to expand the fleet size much? I'm understand a fair chunk of the depot has been sold off.

There's already this new Edinburgh Airport coach service with 4 x Levante's from June. NX seem to be looking to grow existing UK bus ops of late, so anything's possible.
 

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