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Why are people opposed to HS2? (And other HS2 discussion)

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jayah

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Of course he is not being entirely accurate saying that the tracks run exactly parallel to the WCML at the southern end and suggesting that he is saying that is being deliberately obtuse.

They are parallel in the sense they carry the same long distance passenger flows.

To suggest there is space to add a pair of railway lines alongside the existing WCML is just ignorant in engineering terms at the very least and actually delivering route improvements along an active railway is incredibly difficult, not to mention that you still have to deal with existing junctions, stations cross overs etc...

The ground engineering to put a new railway line next to any victorian embankment at the same elevation would require so much disruption to the existing line that you would drive most people away from the existing railway.

Not to mention all the other issues working next to active lines gains.

Building a new alignment avoids these issues as you can generally have a better method of ground engineering and control when going across virgin (not the TOC) land making it easier to design and build and generally cheaper.

Not to mention that if you are widening it you have to have all the land acquisition on one side for significant mileages otherwise you slew all the lines to fit increasing cost.

There is no space for lines to be added. Accept it.
There are numerous precedents both for tunnelling options and adding tracks to existing alignments. You are in no position to deem anything impossible on the grounds that you would rather have HS2.

Neither would be cheap but needs to be compared to the very high and escalating costs of HS2.
 
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jayah

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Aside from France, there are few locations in the world that operate “20 car trains”. The UK rail network was a pioneer, but because it was the first, it lacks capacity for very long trains etc.

On a classic line once it gets to that stage it probably makes sense to either think going up to two decks or under by tunnelling and building a CrossRail 3 from Milton Keynes.

But the works at Euston and St Pancras ably demonstrate that just because it is a 5 car railway or 200m platforms today that is the maximum it has to stay forever.
 

yoyothehobo

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I never said it would be impossible and to suggest that I cannot have a view on why i think something would not be possible, because I prefer the alternative is quite frankly pathetic.

Considering I am a geotechnical engineer, and I know that it is considerably easier AND cheaper to make things from scratch rather than construct them to fit existing dated groundworks of unknown (but frequently sketchy) properties.

Also, you dont get any space to put anything in without demolishing a very large number of properties and businesses and stations until you get to Hemel Hempstead. It has been discussed a million times on this thread that there is NO scope for putting 2 extra tracks in at the southern end and if you are going to tunnel them why bother keeping them on the existing alignment? Put them on a new one and maybe make them go a bit faster, with some dedicated track and trains, keeping them separate from the local services.
 

Chester1

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To make a DC line conversion work it would probably need to result in a 2 slow + 2 medium speed lines and 2 segregated fast lines with ETCS. Probably then segregated 2+2 between Watford and Milton Keynes. Replacing the Northampton EMUs with new tilting stock would allow a recast with 13-14tph non stop between Euston and Watford Junction. A London-Watford-Milton Keynes commuter railway with 4 tracks and 2 track sections would be able to provide a massive capacity increase by running longer and more frequent services than the DC but it would require collosal work. It would be better value to build a high-speed line to MK and divert long distance WCML traffic onto it. It would resolve the most urgent bottleneck but doesn't help the rest of the network.
 

Polarbear

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Meanwhile, down the road at Euston they are managing the impossible by building 11 400m platforms.

Probably because a) the HS2 enabling work has started & b) most of the buildings on the west side of Euston were not of significant architectural merit or building such as the British Library.

Please explain where the 400 meter platforms could be built at St Pancras, Kings Cross and all of the other existing stations such as Birmingham New Street etc.
 

si404

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But as has been explained throughout this thread, building additional tracks parallel to the current WCML would be prohibitively expensive. It would also require much more acquisition of land, demolition of properties etc.
I'd suggest that doing London-Birmingham-Manchester/Wigan (ie what HS2 on that side of the country does) - even with leaving some sections without additional tracks, would cost as much as HS2, but without Leeds, Sheffield, East Midlands being served at all.

The previous WCML upgrade, which didn't have that much construction of new track, cost about the same as phase 1, for not much gains. Merely upgrading existing tracks/corridors doesn't solve the key problem on the West and East Coast Mainlines and is very expensive. Targeted pinch point schemes can eke out more, but we've done most of them already. Something like HS2 has to happen.
 

Clip

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HS2 are building 11 400m long platforms at Euston. Eurostar did similar at St Pancras.

Please stop pretending these are issues that cannot be overcome.

Euston has the room to do such a thing - the others dont anymore( not that they probably did in the first place but lets not let that get in the way
 

Bletchleyite

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The trains from north of Watford are full with people from Watford who aren't travelling on the DC lines because the trains are too slow and low capacity.

The capacity has nothing to do with it. Unless you give a price advantage to the slower service (which there isn't[1]), everyone will just choose the faster one.

[1] There used to be - Oyster used to be valid on LO only. When it was made valid on LM as well, trains stopping at Harrow/Watford in the peak got noticeably busier.
 

Clip

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Poor connectivity in the north needs to be tackled by tearing down and engineering those lines to 21st century standards.

How much money and how much time would this take and what would you do to the users of the line whilst you do this? Buses into already congested city centres? because if you tear it down and start to scratch you may aswell just build a whole new line.. Oh wait...
 

Bald Rick

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We can build a new set of tracks along the WCML for most of it.
That would be more expensive than HS2, per mile, and considerably disruptive to the existing users of the line.


We can use the Watford DC line for commuter services.
It already is. 12tph north of Queens Park to Stonebridge Park, all calling all stations. Can you explain how you propose to:
a) fit additional commuter services into that timetable that could usefully serve any WCML station north of Watford
b) route trains on to the D.C. line from any station north of Watford
c) terminate the trains at the London end

Freights can be sped up or sent onto the Chiltern Line.
How? They already operate at maximum speed on the WCML. How would the freights access the Chiltern Line, where would they be routed from Leamington, and how would they fit into the timetable on the Chiltern Main Line, from Banbury to Leamington, and anywhere north of Leamington? What would happen to the electrically hauled freight?

Trains can be run at up to 20 coaches like elsewhere.
Like where elsewhere? Which stations do you propose to operate these 20 coach trains to, and what works are necessary at those stations to enable that? How much will it cost?

... giving people a better service but for less money.
A better service than what? And how do you know it will be less money?

I can tell you that all the above (except the D.C. Line idea, which is bonkers) and more, have been considered in the development of HS2, and shown to either cost more or have lower benefits, and usually both.

I’ll say here what I say many times. I simply can not understand the delusional capability of people who think that their ideas for alternatives that they may have dreamt up in an idle moment on the kitchen table are going to be better than a rail industry developed has been worked on for a decade by hundreds of professional engineers, transport planners, environmental experts, consents experts, economists, property experts etc.
 

Sceptre

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How much money and how much time would this take and what would you do to the users of the line whilst you do this? Buses into already congested city centres? because if you tear it down and start to scratch you may aswell just build a whole new line.. Oh wait...

Oh, it'll be fine, we can just blast a 200km/h+ line through urban sprawl (with no rail connectivity to speak of at the moment) and it'll be cheaper and more popular than routing it next to the M1. High Speed UK said so.
 

Chester1

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I’ll say here what I say many times. I simply can not understand the delusional capability of people who think that their ideas for alternatives that they may have dreamt up in an idle moment on the kitchen table are going to be better than a rail industry developed has been worked on for a decade by hundreds of professional engineers, transport planners, environmental experts, consents experts, economists, property experts etc.

Its fun to think up suggestions! It only becomes a problem when people are convinced they know better.
 

Bald Rick

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Its fun to think up suggestions! It only becomes a problem when people are convinced they know better.

Oh ideas are great. Not thinking them through properly is, at best, a little careless. But then refusing to accept that the pet idea might be wrong, when presented with facts and evidence contrary, is the bit I don’t get. And not believing that work would already have been done to prove that is beyond my comprehension.
 

Polarbear

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Oh ideas are great. Not thinking them through properly is, at best, a little careless. But then refusing to accept that the pet idea might be wrong, when presented with facts and evidence contrary, is the bit I don’t get. And not believing that work would already have been done to prove that is beyond my comprehension.

Agreed. Quite a few of the ideas being floated on this thread were looked into at the initial planning stages of HS2. They were rejected for good reason - namely cost & benefits derived.

HS2 was decided upon as being the most cost effective solution to the following issues;

  • Reliving the WCML between Rugby & Euston
  • Facilitating extra capacity on the clsssic network between Rugby & London, around Birmingham & Manchester.
  • Later phases relieving the MML & ECML southern sections.
 

Aictos

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The MML could greatly increase capacity on long distance services by not running half size trains. Relieving the MML with HS2 would be squandering any benefit from HS2.
Poor connectivity in the north needs to be tackled by tearing down and engineering those lines to 21st century standards. It is not solved by a grossly over engineered HS2 that only connects a few city pairs at phenomenal cost while detaching itself from the existing stations and public transport networks.

I see you’ve deliberately ignored why the Midland Mainline IC services operate in the formations that it does which was explained by @EM2 below simply because you don’t like facts.

The thing is, where do you put all these full-length trains?
Take Meridians for example. If they're all ten-car, you can fit one on a platform at St. P, which can only serve one destination. With five-cars, you fit two, with two destinations.
Same on the WCML. Three four-cars on one platform at Euston to three different destinations.
So, do you want longer trains serving fewer destinations less frequently, or shorter trains serving more destinations more frequently?

Meanwhile, down the road at Euston they are managing the impossible by building 11 400m platforms.

Yes for HS2, doesn’t mean they can be built everywhere tho :rolleyes:
 

jayah

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I never said it would be impossible and to suggest that I cannot have a view on why i think something would not be possible, because I prefer the alternative is quite frankly pathetic.

Considering I am a geotechnical engineer, and I know that it is considerably easier AND cheaper to make things from scratch rather than construct them to fit existing dated groundworks of unknown (but frequently sketchy) properties.

Also, you dont get any space to put anything in without demolishing a very large number of properties and businesses and stations until you get to Hemel Hempstead. It has been discussed a million times on this thread that there is NO scope for putting 2 extra tracks in at the southern end and if you are going to tunnel them why bother keeping them on the existing alignment? Put them on a new one and maybe make them go a bit faster, with some dedicated track and trains, keeping them separate from the local services.

I am pleased to see you are getting warmer.

Just HS1 managed to get through Ashford, it is perfectly possible to get more tracks north of Watford. These don't need to be a 250mph alignment and they don't need to go anything like as far as Leeds or Birmingham.
 

jayah

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Agreed. Quite a few of the ideas being floated on this thread were looked into at the initial planning stages of HS2. They were rejected for good reason - namely cost & benefits derived.

HS2 was decided upon as being the most cost effective solution to the following issues;

  • Reliving the WCML between Rugby & Euston
  • Facilitating extra capacity on the clsssic network between Rugby & London, around Birmingham & Manchester.
  • Later phases relieving the MML & ECML southern sections.

The cost benefit for HS2 is nonsense. The primary benefit of the line is the time saved by those using it. If such benefits exist, they could charge them to the users.

Recent experience with CrossRail has shown the cost calculations are already hopelessly out of date.

I am not aware of any business case for the interventions being suggested being rejected? One HLOS actually calculated a positive financial case for purchasing more rolling stock on London Midland - a rare thing indeed for an investment scheme on a UK railway.
 

jayah

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To make a DC line conversion work it would probably need to result in a 2 slow + 2 medium speed lines and 2 segregated fast lines with ETCS. Probably then segregated 2+2 between Watford and Milton Keynes. Replacing the Northampton EMUs with new tilting stock would allow a recast with 13-14tph non stop between Euston and Watford Junction. A London-Watford-Milton Keynes commuter railway with 4 tracks and 2 track sections would be able to provide a massive capacity increase by running longer and more frequent services than the DC but it would require collosal work. It would be better value to build a high-speed line to MK and divert long distance WCML traffic onto it. It would resolve the most urgent bottleneck but doesn't help the rest of the network.
The rest of the network doesn't have a capacity problem. The hubs around Leeds and Manchester are choked with trains little more capacious than a couple of buses.

The difficulty with not making better use of the DC lines is you have to force another two tracks into Zone 1 which basically results in HS2 ending in Milton Keynes or nearby.
 

jayah

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That would be more expensive than HS2, per mile, and considerably disruptive to the existing users of the line.



It already is. 12tph north of Queens Park to Stonebridge Park, all calling all stations. Can you explain how you propose to:
a) fit additional commuter services into that timetable that could usefully serve any WCML station north of Watford
b) route trains on to the D.C. line from any station north of Watford
c) terminate the trains at the London end


How? They already operate at maximum speed on the WCML. How would the freights access the Chiltern Line, where would they be routed from Leamington, and how would they fit into the timetable on the Chiltern Main Line, from Banbury to Leamington, and anywhere north of Leamington? What would happen to the electrically hauled freight?


Like where elsewhere? Which stations do you propose to operate these 20 coach trains to, and what works are necessary at those stations to enable that? How much will it cost?


A better service than what? And how do you know it will be less money?

I can tell you that all the above (except the D.C. Line idea, which is bonkers) and more, have been considered in the development of HS2, and shown to either cost more or have lower benefits, and usually both.

I’ll say here what I say many times. I simply can not understand the delusional capability of people who think that their ideas for alternatives that they may have dreamt up in an idle moment on the kitchen table are going to be better than a rail industry developed has been worked on for a decade by hundreds of professional engineers, transport planners, environmental experts, consents experts, economists, property experts etc.
More tracks on the WCML will not be more expensive per mile than HS2 tunnelling from Ruislip to London.

The Bakerloo line needs to lift the traffic south of Wembley and be removed from the DC lines.

Most freight on the southern WCML does not need to be there as alternative routes exist from Felixstowe to the North. What freight there is does not need to run in the peaks.

The DC line detours around Watford and Willesden need to be removed. Diverting the Met or Chiltern from Moor Park to Watford High Street and removing the existing Watford Met line is an option worth considering.
 

liam456

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More tracks on the WCML will not be more expensive per mile than HS2 tunnelling from Ruislip to London.

The Bakerloo line needs to lift the traffic south of Wembley and be removed from the DC lines.

Most freight on the southern WCML does not need to be there as alternative routes exist from Felixstowe to the North. What freight there is does not need to run in the peaks.

The DC line detours around Watford and Willesden need to be removed. Diverting the Met or Chiltern from Moor Park to Watford High Street and removing the existing Watford Met line is an option worth considering.

Woah he said it assertively, it must be true!
 

Polarbear

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The cost benefit for HS2 is nonsense. The primary benefit of the line is the time saved by those using it. If such benefits exist, they could charge them to the users.

Recent experience with CrossRail has shown the cost calculations are already hopelessly out of date.

I am not aware of any business case for the interventions being suggested being rejected? One HLOS actually calculated a positive financial case for purchasing more rolling stock on London Midland - a rare thing indeed for an investment scheme on a UK railway.

If you are so confident of your assertions, I suggest you set out your detailed, costed proposals to the board of HS2 & Chris Grayling.
 

AM9

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That's what I'm trying to say.
That's correct. To relieve the southern WCML will cost about £27bn including trains and contingency. That headline will of course go down perfectly with everybody north of Birmingham - "Phase 2 of HS2 dropped whilst new high-speed line is just benefitting Londoners." The poor travellers from Preston (and other Northern towns) would have apoplexy. :)
 

jayah

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That would be more expensive than HS2, per mile, and considerably disruptive to the existing users of the line.



It already is. 12tph north of Queens Park to Stonebridge Park, all calling all stations. Can you explain how you propose to:
a) fit additional commuter services into that timetable that could usefully serve any WCML station north of Watford
b) route trains on to the D.C. line from any station north of Watford
c) terminate the trains at the London end


How? They already operate at maximum speed on the WCML. How would the freights access the Chiltern Line, where would they be routed from Leamington, and how would they fit into the timetable on the Chiltern Main Line, from Banbury to Leamington, and anywhere north of Leamington? What would happen to the electrically hauled freight?


Like where elsewhere? Which stations do you propose to operate these 20 coach trains to, and what works are necessary at those stations to enable that? How much will it cost?


A better service than what? And how do you know it will be less money?

I can tell you that all the above (except the D.C. Line idea, which is bonkers) and more, have been considered in the development of HS2, and shown to either cost more or have lower benefits, and usually both.

I’ll say here what I say many times. I simply can not understand the delusional capability of people who think that their ideas for alternatives that they may have dreamt up in an idle moment on the kitchen table are going to be better than a rail industry developed has been worked on for a decade by hundreds of professional engineers, transport planners, environmental experts, consents experts, economists, property experts etc.
Most of the big decisions are actually made by politicians which ought to make you concerned.

There have been many and radical changes to the concept. First it would go to Scotland, then link to HS1. Heathrow or not. They only recently decided to serve Sheffield instead of going around to and Meadowhall a huge piece of work is needed to convince anyone that Toton is a gateway for the East Midlands.

The premise has changed equally radically - it began as clearing the skies between Scotland and London, modal shift from cars and removing the need for a new runway at Heathrow.

Later versions focus on capacity and regional economic benefits although the business case is still very much made on this controversial concept of time saved by users and completely new journeys.
 

jayah

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If you are so confident of your assertions, I suggest you set out your detailed, costed proposals to the board of HS2 & Chris Grayling.

I think even Chris Grayling knows the cost will be vastly more than the current budget.

Hence there is no business case and we are left watching the government waste more of our money each day until someone finally puts this poor dog down.
 

MarkyT

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I am pleased to see you are getting warmer.

Just HS1 managed to get through Ashford, it is perfectly possible to get more tracks north of Watford. These don't need to be a 250mph alignment and they don't need to go anything like as far as Leeds or Birmingham.
HS1 exploited some brownfield land around Ashford that happened to exist to take a route near the station. The land included old railway yards and depots, some low value industrial properties and a vast old MOD depot to the west of the town that had recently been abandoned but had yet to be built upon. The route chosen probably caused less disruption than alternatives although did include some residential property acquisition. It was actually quite a late change, with the original planned alignment tracing a route following the M20 around the north of the town. Few major railway stations and junctions today have so much land available nearby, especially in the south. In the specific case of Ashford, routing the line near the station made creating junctions between HS and classic routes at both ends more straightforward.
 

EM2

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Hence there is no business case and we are left watching the government waste more of our money each day until someone finally puts this poor dog down.
Just so we know, what are your qualifications and experience in the area of planning major transport infrastructure projects?
 

MarkyT

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...First it would go to Scotland, then link to HS1. Heathrow or not. They only recently decided to serve Sheffield instead of going around to and Meadowhall a huge piece of work is needed to convince anyone that Toton is a gateway for the East Midlands.

The premise has changed equally radically - it began as clearing the skies between Scotland and London, modal shift from cars and removing the need for a new runway at Heathrow.

Later versions focus on capacity and regional economic benefits although the business case is still very much made on this controversial concept of time saved by users and completely new journeys.
You seem to imply that change through the development process is a bad thing. Trains using the line south of Wigan WILL still go to Scotland and make significant journey time savings that will inevitably cause some mode shift if not 'empty the skies'. Further segments of new alignment will of course be possible in the future to improve this. Heathrow trains were abandoned because they were very poor use of paths, and airport passengers are better served by changing at OOC. This decision also avoided the costs of the dedicated spur and airport station. Opinions still differ about Sheffield, but the decision was driven by an overwhelming desire in the city to have a central station, coupled with very real engineering difficulties encountered by designers attempting to route via Meadowhall. While it would be lovely to be able to serve Nottingham and Derby city centres directly, it is not realistically possible to serve both on the same alignment. Toton has the potential to become a large intermodal interchange like Crewe, while also being at the centre of the local road network. It is also not at all rural, being very close to the centre of Long Eaton, closer in fact than the current local station that serves that town! It is likely have very comprehensive local travel options so will not be purely some French-style beat-field parkway and I think it is undoubtedly the best compromise.
 

jayah

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You seem to imply that change through the development process is a bad thing. Trains using the line south of Wigan WILL still go to Scotland and make significant journey time savings that will inevitably cause some mode shift if not 'empty the skies'. Further segments of new alignment will of course be possible in the future to improve this. Heathrow trains were abandoned because they were very poor use of paths, and airport passengers are better served by changing at OOC. This decision also avoided the costs of the dedicated spur and airport station. Opinions still differ about Sheffield, but the decision was driven by an overwhelming desire in the city to have a central station, coupled with very real engineering difficulties encountered by designers attempting to route via Meadowhall. While it would be lovely to be able to serve Nottingham and Derby city centres directly, it is not realistically possible to serve both on the same alignment. Toton has the potential to become a large intermodal interchange like Crewe, while also being at the centre of the local road network. It is also not at all rural, being very close to the centre of Long Eaton, closer in fact than the current local station that serves that town! It is likely have very comprehensive local travel options so will not be purely some French-style beat-field parkway and I think it is undoubtedly the best compromise.
£60-100bn but at least Long Eaton is actually served.

HS2 is a tragic model of disintegrated transport with the massive brownfield hubs ringed by trunk roads and thousands of car parking spaces.

If they encountered challenges in design just getting to Meadowhall, wait until they get a spade in the ground.
 

jayah

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Just so we know, what are your qualifications and experience in the area of planning major transport infrastructure projects?

Anyone with experience in major UK rail transport infrastructure projects in the past 20 years has probably ruled themselves out of having a valid opinion either.

It does make me laugh all these people saying you can't get two tracks out of Watford or extend the platforms at St Pancras domestic only to see HS2 phase 2B with a 200mph tunnel into Central Manchester the same distance as Paddington to Stratford.

And apparently this will all cost £56bn at 2015 prices? Can you just confirm given my total ignorance - is this Phase 2B or the whole line?
 
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