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Why are people opposed to HS2? (And other HS2 discussion)

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The Ham

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In the grand scheme of things, the amount of ancient woodland being affected is actually pretty small; I think Phase 1 requires the removal of about one motorway service station's worth of woodland.

It's not the best, but it's a worthwhile sacrifice when compared to the alternative (which would involve a lot of interventions on the road network)

As a comparison HS2 had the same capacity as a 6 lane (in each direction) motorway assuming 1.7 people per car.

Just for the running lanes that's a width of 44m, plus the central reserve and hard shoulders and embankments.

Then of course there's the mess it would create in trying to get that many cars into the outskirts of cities, let alone anywhere near the centre.
 
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Chester1

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I still think that the Chiltern Line could have been given an upgrade of sorts. Like I said, I have mixed feelings about it, and I do agree with you to a point; I think the benefits for the North West outweigh the Birmingham / West Mids ones.

I didn't totally disagree with MP Spelman - I can see that a Victorian infrastructure can be difficult to work with. However, we have had a lot of WCML changes for the better (several electrification schemes, Norton Bridge, Chase Line) . So why not electrification of Chiltern, New Street - Nuneaton?

I agree about A452 at that point (only one right turn though- Diddington Lane, which may well be cut in half). I was simply suggesting that Balsall Common residents are not too happy at present, although I think they are getting used to what it will be.

There's a lot of road infrastructure taking place in that area too - Jn 6 M42, new Airport relief roads and junctions from A45, M6 smart motorway.

There are options to upgrade the Chiltern Mainline but it would cost billions to make it support sufficient fast London-Birmingham trains to become the primary line for end to end journeys, in order to free up paths on the WCML for alternative services. There are two issues with this: 1) value for money and 2) limited extra capacity. Annual growth since privatisation has been around 2.5-4%, which means a Chiltern upgrade would buy time but not much. At some point a new line or artificially capping passenger numbers will become necessary.
 

Geezertronic

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I agree about A452 at that point (only one right turn though- Diddington Lane, which may well be cut in half). I was simply suggesting that Balsall Common residents are not too happy at present, although I think they are getting used to what it will be.

The right turns I was referring to was on the A452 Dual Carriageway section between Balsall Common and Hampton/Meriden - specifically:

1. Right turn travelling from Balsall Common past the George then turning right into Park Lane which will be replaced with a roundabout
2. Right turn from Hampton/Meridan into the truck stop which will be replaced with a roundabout
 

swt_passenger

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My only concern with HS2 is that by the time it is delivered the world will have moved on a bit technology wise, we will have spent a hug amount for an outdated technology. Britain used to be a forward think nation leading the way. Why are we still investing so much in old railway technology and not looking a potential alternatives light Maglev/Hyperloop which would most likely be more future proof?

It is absolutely correct that we deliver better connectivity to areas outside London, we should also be reducing reliance on air travel.

I agree with the principals just not sure the chosen delivery method is best in the modern world. What is the fastest these trains will run?
Hyperloop is fantasy for the gullible and naive. It will never scale up into mass transit.
If Maglev was ever going to widely take over from rail, why hasn’t it happened in the 35 odd years since it was first put into use?
 

Dr Hoo

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Precisely - British Rail could have strategic vision in a way that the privatised railway doesn't, and could present its' case to Government more effectively than a fragmented railway system.
Apart from the sad fact that BR’s ‘scheme’ wasn’t accepted by the government (in the wake of a financial crisis) InterCity 250 hardly had the same breadth of vision as HS2. It wasn’t really about capacity in that it didn’t provide two new tracks all the way; it couldn’t have been expanded to include an eastern leg; it was for a lower top speed; it didn’t appear to envisage 400m trains and didn’t include strategic links via Old Oak Common, etc.
 
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Facing Back

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Hyperloop is fantasy for the gullible and naive. It will never scale up into mass transit.
If Maglev was ever going to widely take over from rail, why hasn’t it happened in the 35 odd years since it was first put into use?
I love to use hyper loop for HS20 - we'll have to link it to HS21, the new cross channel hypertunnel, to take advantage of the speed. Or perhaps HS22, the transatlantic hypertunnel?

For HS2 and 3 steel rails may be more practical.
 

Dr Hoo

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I presume it has been proposed and rejected before, but would it not make strategic sense to build the line INITIALLY from Old Oak Common, via Birmingham Interchange, and the two forks towards Manchester and to the East Midlands station? This might be a similar cost to “Stage 1”, without the Curzon station, and Euston tunnels, and provide faster access from the North, silencing those Northern critics and others.
This could enable non-stop trains to join the Y-shape bypass from Liverpool, Manchester, Leeds, Sheffield etc, from the classic lines. I admit to being a non-rail layman, so the idea may be entirely impractical.
Welcome to the forum, with a fair question.
Noting how far the design and statutory powers are already ‘set’ it is worth noting that HS2 depends on its depot being in Washwood Heath, just outside Curzon Street.
Old Oak Common station is configured as a through station rather than a terminal. Although it will have Crossrail it will lack Underground links and any walkability to Central London destinations.
 

MarkyT

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...Old Oak Common station is configured as a through station rather than a terminal. Although it will have Crossrail it will lack Underground links and any walkability to Central London destinations.
And it'd be an expensive taxi ride from OOC into central London, and subject to traffic delays. The Euston section, although expensive, is not particularly destructive as it's mostly in tunnel and it significantly adds to London terminal platform capacity. Having two London stations, in a city as large as a small country, makes a lot of sense. It is similar to the Shinkansen lines in Tokyo which both make a peripheral hub stop en route into the city centre terminus for a much wider range of total connections, including airport links.
 

Bald Rick

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That being the privatisation that had Virgin Trains offer to build a new High Speed Line along the WCML corridor (and also ECML corridor too at a later point) that the Government said no to?

And, of course, there was nothing stopping the Government building the High Speed lines BR were planning before privatisation, especially once Railtrack was renationalised in 2001. The problem here wasn't so much privatisation per say, as the abolition of British Rail and Government not getting the need for new build lines.

Now my memory may be failing me, but I don’t recall Virgin offering to build a high speed line along the WCML corridor. I met them several times during the franchise bidding in 1996 and it certainly never came up. They did on the ECML (along with badly photoshopped pics of TGVs in Virgin livery at KX), but even then that was kite flying. Whilst Virgin might have out a badge on it, it would still have been Government money paying for it.

Similarly, the only high speed line BR was planning before privatisation was HS1. There was certianly no London to the north line planned in my time in that part of BR in the early 90s.
 

tasky

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Now my memory may be failing me, but I don’t recall Virgin offering to build a high speed line along the WCML corridor. I met them several times during the franchise bidding in 1996 and it certainly never came up. They did on the ECML (along with badly photoshopped pics of TGVs in Virgin livery at KX), but even then that was kite flying. Whilst Virgin might have out a badge on it, it would still have been Government money paying for it.

Similarly, the only high speed line BR was planning before privatisation was HS1. There was certianly no London to the north line planned in my time in that part of BR in the early 90s.

Original poster might be thinking of the proposals from First for a line to the south west from 2002 https://web.archive.org/web/2004102...stgreatwestern.co.uk/news/release.php?item=29
 

JamesT

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Similarly, the only high speed line BR was planning before privatisation was HS1. There was certianly no London to the north line planned in my time in that part of BR in the early 90s.

Although it was largely upgrades of the existing line, wouldn’t the InterCity 250 plan have provided a relatively high speed North-South route?
 

Ianno87

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Now my memory may be failing me, but I don’t recall Virgin offering to build a high speed line along the WCML corridor. I met them several times during the franchise bidding in 1996 and it certainly never came up. They did on the ECML (along with badly photoshopped pics of TGVs in Virgin livery at KX), but even then that was kite flying. Whilst Virgin might have out a badge on it, it would still have been Government money paying for it.

I'm sure I remember reading about a supposed Euston-Crewe high speed line in a issue of RAIL at around that time, promoted by Virgin West Coast. Of course, that does not necessarily mean it was grounded in any form of reality as a proposal...
 

Bald Rick

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I'm sure I remember reading about a supposed Euston-Crewe high speed line in a issue of RAIL at around that time, promoted by Virgin West Coast. Of course, that does not necessarily mean it was grounded in any form of reality as a proposal...

Might have been the Stafford cut off? (Which, incidentally, has more than a passing resemblance to HS2 Ph2A. Funnily enough.)
 

Bald Rick

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I still don’t understand. Perhaps it’s me. If I set out what I think you’re trying to say, perhaps you can say if I get it wrong. Your proposal is:

1) to extend the Bakerloo, in tunnel, from Queens Park to Wembley Central, with deep level stations at each of the existing stations on the D.C. Line......

.....Is this right? If not where I have misunderstood you?

Well it’s been nearly 48 hours with no response. And I still don’t understand.
 

Bald Rick

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I suspect you may wait a long time for sensible, realistic & practical answers. I asked some questions too which remain unanswered.

Well if there’s no answer by tonight, then we can only assume that he/she doesn’t actually know the answers.
 

The Ham

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Well if there’s no answer by tonight, then we can only assume that he/she doesn’t actually know the answers.

It's the same when you rebind those who are opposed to HS2 about the early claim that HS2 would be miles out on passenger growth predictions.

In 2009 it was stated that growth by the opening of Phase 1 would be to be about 50%, which if you interpolate gets to about 25% for the year 2017/18 (the last year that there's data for).

The data shows that they were correct that the growth figures are out, and by a factor of nearly 3, yet they remain very quite on this because it's nearly 3 times higher than predicted at about 70% between London and the regions which benefit from HS2 phase 1.

View media item 3340
As there's more people using rail than predicted this then reduces the risk where there's cost overuns. It also means that it's far less likely to be a white elephant (note the 11 million people using rail to travel between London and the North West, who are likely to benefit from HS2), as there will be more people already using rail.

Yes in certain circles it would be popular to cancel HS2, however I feel that it would be a short lived "victory" as a) overcrowding will become more apparent b) those who expected more investment in local/northern services will be disappointed c) it's likely that phase 1 will be built anyway given the costs spent on it and it's likely to show that it's a good thing meaning that phase 2 will follow on anyway (maybe a bit delayed).

Even if the actual money spent on phase 1 isn't more than 50% now, chances are that to cancel the contracts which have been signed and the extra works required so that there's no big holes/half demolished buildings for people to point at would probably mean that it's already too late to cancel phase 1.

Especially given that nothings going to happen before parliament's summer break (as that's the timeline for a new leader to be in post). Even then it doesn't allow a lot of time to sort out what's required to bring the cancellation into law before Christmas.

That's basically another 6 months of costs and likely more contacts signed, meaning that it would like be well past the 50% point.

That's before you consider that there's likely to be amendments which call for the funding to be ring fenced to be spent on local rail/NHS/education/Northern Ireland/other (delete as appropriate, whatevers needed to get the vote through) which will lengthen the discussion process. Along with the small matter of Brexit taking up a lot of their focus and negotiation skills.

That's all assuming that there's not a general election, which there could always be if the new Conservative Leader doesn't deal with the DUP and alienates one or other wing of their own party.
 

EM2

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For those anti-HS2ers pinning their hopes on Hyperloop:
https://jalopnik.com/elon-musk-says-hyperloop-tunnel-is-now-just-a-normal-1835024474
Elon Musk Says ‘Hyperloop’ Tunnel Is Now Just a Normal Car Tunnel Because ‘This Is Simple and Just Works’

Back in 2017, Elon Musk had grand visions for the Hyperloop test track built by The Boring Company, his tunneling firm, in Los Angeles. It would have proprietary vehicles with varying capacities for private travel, public transport, or freight. They would travel along electrified skates for frictionless movement. It would be fast and efficient, but more importantly, it would be different, because he’s a genius.
...
Yes, for those keeping score, in a mere two years we’ve gone from a futuristic vision of electric skates zooming around a variety of vehicles in a network of underground tunnels to—and I cannot stress this enough—a very small, paved tunnel that can fit one (1) car.
 

MarkyT

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I never thought I'd say this, but to be fair to Musk he never said this system was anything to do with 'Hyperloop'. It was always a rubber-tyred shuttle in a tunnel. The conference centre shuttle in LA sounds a pretty good idea to me, but I doubt it will be going 150mph for a short system with people standing up in small pods. Don't know what he's got about putting things in tubes and tunnels. Hyperloop is, in my mind likely to come up with an alternative maglev package of technology that could give German and Asian companies a run for their money if they'd just accept that train-sized is the way to go, not tiny pods, and drop the absurd vacuum pipe. He could adapt both the tyred low speed and maglev high speed designs for surface and tunnel routes and he might have a solid business in the far future, but non of this is remotely ready as a replacement for high speed railways and urban mass transit.
 

DynamicSpirit

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I've started a new thread suggesting a pro-HS2 campaigning group, which I imagine would be of interest to people here.

DynamicSpirit said:
Would anyone be interested in setting up a group to campaign publicly for HS2?

It seems to me that there are a lot of well informed people on railforums, who have spent a lot of time putting forward good, rational, arguments for HS2 - particularly in this 'Why are people opposed to HS2?' thread. But having followed that thread for some time, I'd say many of us are basically wasting our time there, debating with other people who (mostly) already understand the arguments behind HS2. And while we're doing that, all the ill-informed anti-HS2 groups are active online much more publicly, on Twitter, in the media, etc. - spreading what many of us on railforums would recognise as misinformation.

To make it worse... we now have all the leadership machinations in the Tory Party, in which it looks like several Tory leadership contenders might try to axe HS2 in order to make themselves more popular inside the Tory Party. And the Brexit party is looming large... Nigel Farage has never as far as I can see been a fan of either HS2 or of factual accuracy.

I'm therefore thinking a more productive use of some of time would be to campaign away from railforums UK (hard concept I know ;) ) for HS2 (and perhaps for sensible rail improvements generally) on the basis of communicating accurate information about what HS2 is likely to achieve. Ideally, I'm thinking of a campaigning group that would have its own website, and which could respond quickly online to the various bits of idiocy that hit the media (such as the recent Taxpayers Alliance proposal to divert funds from HS2). And perhaps even starting to do things like leaflet commuters on rail lines that stand to benefit from HS2. Although those are only rough ideas - I'm open to other ideas.

Anyone interested? If so, I'd say, either discuss here, or (better) PM me.

Cross-posting here as I think that's most relevant to people following this thread - but for any discussion about the merits or otherwise of my suggestion, it's probably best to reply in the new thread to avoid thread-discussion-creep here :)
 

The Ham

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I still don’t understand. Perhaps it’s me. If I set out what I think you’re trying to say, perhaps you can say if I get it wrong. Your proposal is:

1) to extend the Bakerloo, in tunnel, from Queens Park to Wembley Central, with deep level stations at each of the existing stations on the D.C. Line.

2) reconstruct the D.C. lines from Watford Junction to Camden Junction as a 90mph railway, involving a new elevated route alongside the WCML from Watford Jn to Bushey (2km), a new route from Wembley Central to Kensal Green (5-6km, route uncertain), upgrading the track and signalling throughout, and providing sufficient extra power in the D.C. electrification system for the higher speeds.

3) retain the current contracted level of service on the D.C. line from Watford to Euston of 4tph, omitting all calls between Stonebridge Park to Willesden Jn inclusive; but retaining all calls Watford to Wembley Central, and Kensal Green to Euston.

4) operate additional services from Watford Jn to Euston on the upgraded D.C. lines, calling intermediately only at Bushey and Harrow & Wealdstone.

5) operate all existing slow line services south of Watford Jn as fast between there and Euston.


Is this right? If not where I have misunderstood you?

It's now been a week, have you had a PM explaining it to you or are you still waiting?
 

The Ham

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I presume it has been proposed and rejected before, but would it not make strategic sense to build the line INITIALLY from Old Oak Common, via Birmingham Interchange, and the two forks towards Manchester and to the East Midlands station? This might be a similar cost to “Stage 1”, without the Curzon station, and Euston tunnels, and provide faster access from the North, silencing those Northern critics and others.
This could enable non-stop trains to join the Y-shape bypass from Liverpool, Manchester, Leeds, Sheffield etc, from the classic lines. I admit to being a non-rail layman, so the idea may be entirely impractical.

If you stopped at OOC at the Southern end you'd need to increase the number of platforms there. Given that they are underground that's going to at significant costs, especially if you plan to extend to Euston at a later date.

By skipping Birmingham Curzon Street out you would loose the ability to run services from their northwards, meaning that all services would have to start in London. Rather than the 1/3 which start from Birmingham.

It's worth asking the question, but I do think that not serving Birmingham would be a bad move and wouldn't help with the moving of over 13 million people a year who travel between London and the West Midlands.

In terms of numbers, between London and the regions it's:
West Midlands : 13.5 million
North West : 11 million
East Midlands : 9.5 million
Yorkshire and Humber : 7.5 million

On that basis it makes sense to do the current phase 1 & 2a as they help with the big flows first.

I wouldn't be surprised if we saw 2b pushing towards Toton and Manchester for opening circa 2030 with the rest following.
 

The Ham

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Still waiting. Feeling a little bit unloved.

Awww. I hope it's not too much longer.

Although I also find it a bit disappointing when there's no comeback on passenger growth which is showing far above the predictions and there's nothing that they can say about it, especially given the early complaints were the growth forecasts would be wrong. Well they are, but they are a lot higher than predicted.
 

AM9

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The upshot of the growth of passenger numbers is that we need HS2 even sooner than was anticipated.

It baffles me why the capacity argument is so misunderstood as are many basics about the project.
Because many of those know that acknowledging the capacity issue, undermines their objections to the project. Their approach to debate on the matter is to keep playing the broken record of "Westminster's vanity project that gets rich Londoners to Birmingham 5 minutes quicker". There's the routine inflation of the projected cost, - I've seen figures as high as £140bn citing other projects that have cost overruns as 'proof', and how this money could be spent on hospitals, education, and dozens of other rail projects that they would personally benefit from. It's as big a delusion as the £350m on the side of the big red bus.
In truth, they have no response to the official justification for the project.
 

The Ham

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Because many of those know that acknowledging the capacity issue, undermines their objections to the project. Their approach to debate on the matter is to keep playing the broken record of "Westminster's vanity project that gets rich Londoners to Birmingham 5 minutes quicker". There's the routine inflation of the projected cost, - I've seen figures as high as £140bn citing other projects that have cost overruns as 'proof', and how this money could be spent on hospitals, education, and dozens of other rail projects that they would personally benefit from. It's as big a delusion as the £350m on the side of the big red bus.
In truth, they have no response to the official justification for the project.

Indeed, if you ask Joe or any others opposed to HS2 about rail growth they ignore you and/or block you on Twitter, or state that in 2016/17 growth was falling (although there's 2017/18 data which shows most of those falls, other than London to London travel which is still seeing small falls) have been reversed. One person suggests that the base year should begin the 2010/11 year as that shows ~40% growth, which is impressive of HS2 to use data 2 years after it was announced!

Feel free to highlight this table:View media item 3340
Which shows that growth between London and the regions which benefit from HS2 phase 1 has been ~70% which is nearly three times higher than the ~25% it should have been at this point in time and higher than the ~50% at the opening of Phase 1.
 

Glenn1969

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Passenger numbers may well have fallen in 2018 because of the strikes and the timetable chaos. I don't think the decline will be maintained now things are heading back to normality on those fronts.
 
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