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EU Elections 2019

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anme

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True. When I looked at the list of candidates, I can't stand the one at the top of one major party's list so I voted for a party that might defeat him. On reflection, he's likely to get in any way, so I am really voting for number 2 or 3 on that parties list, whose views might be closer to my own.

Basically, I could do without 'List' systems.

Personally I'm in favour of "list" systems, otherwise you end up with the massive distortions of the Westminster system. Having to live with some candidates you don't really like seems like a price worth paying.
 
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DanDaDriver

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Whatever the result, even if by some major upset the Brexit party don’t get a single seat, the BBC and Theresa May will take it as:

“A sign the British people want to carry out Brexit.”
 

anme

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Whatever the result, even if by some major upset the Brexit party don’t get a single seat, the BBC and Theresa May will take it as:

“A sign the British people want to carry out Brexit.”

Haha yes! In the local elections, the Tories losing votes was because they were not tough enough on brexit. The Lib Dems gaining votes was because of local issues. Yeah, right...
 

hexagon789

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The pro-remain vote will be split 4 ways north of the border, with the SNP as the additional option. I'm not sure if the LibDems have been forgiven enough to gain enough votes. I wouldn't want to vote for the unknown quantity that is Change, leaving me with the choice of SNP or Green.

For Scotland my guess is:

SNP - 3
Lab - 1
Brexit - 1
Con - 1
 

Typhoon

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Personally I'm in favour of "list" systems, otherwise you end up with the massive distortions of the Westminster system. Having to live with some candidates you don't really like seems like a price worth paying.
I would prefer something like the single transferrable vote, with the option of a 'None of the above' candidate so if you end up with a donkey with a rosette in a safe seat you can vote against them with the confidence that you are not letting another party in. The election would then have to be rerun with none of the original candidates allowed to stand.

But I fear this is drifting off the point, so will desist.
 

GusB

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For Scotland my guess is:

SNP - 3
Lab - 1
Brexit - 1
Con - 1
An opinion poll I saw (and I cannot for the life of me remember where) had Brexit scoring higher than the Tories, so I wouldn't be surprised if they gained at least one, presumably picking up the former UKIP vote. I also wouldn't be shocked if the Greens gained a seat either.

Just to be sure, the results of the elections in the UK will only be made public on Sunday, is that right?
Some areas won't begin counting until Monday. Western Isles don't count on a Sunday, and I believe NI will begin the count on Monday as well.
 

hexagon789

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An opinion poll I saw (and I cannot for the life of me remember where) had Brexit scoring higher than the Tories, so I wouldn't be surprised if they gained at least one, presumably picking up the former UKIP vote. I also wouldn't be shocked if the Greens gained a seat either.

Yes, that's what I based my guess on. That and the general trend of previous polls.
 

hexagon789

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Makes sense, doesn't it? But countries can go & start counting once all their own polling stations are closed of course.
As long as they keep the secret. ;)

Exactly as happens in national elections normally. No results until all polling is closed.
 

edwin_m

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So not proportional voting but a modification of the block vote.
I'm not sure of the semantics, more interested in whether people think it would be a fair system that doesn't rely on party lists.

The other option I can think of would keep single-member constituencies but grouped into clusters that would also elect one or more extra members. Crucially these would be filled by the closest losers in the constituencies rather than from party lists.
 

Mag_seven

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The BBC say: The results will be announced once all EU nations have voted, with the voting process expected to be completed by 22:00 BST on Sunday.

I don't know why we can't vote on Sunday like the rest of Europe or would that cause Farage etc to foam at the mouth even more?
 

takno

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An opinion poll I saw (and I cannot for the life of me remember where) had Brexit scoring higher than the Tories, so I wouldn't be surprised if they gained at least one, presumably picking up the former UKIP vote. I also wouldn't be shocked if the Greens gained a seat either.
The most recent Scottish poll had the SNP getting three, Brexit party just edging two, and the greens getting the third. It was a toss up between green, Tory and Labour though, and all within a percent or two of taking the second seat off the Brexit party, and a fourth seat for the SNP not far behind. I would guess if anything that Labour and Tory will be down from that figure and green up a little. No idea on whether Brexit party get a second seat or not
 

JamesT

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I don't know why we can't vote on Sunday like the rest of Europe or would that cause Farage etc to foam at the mouth even more?

It’s mostly tradition that we vote on a Thursday. But I can see a few logistical issues with moving to Sunday where some of the current polling stations might not be available. (Thinking mostly of churches like where I voted this morning).
 

takno

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I've been trying to think of a better method which allows voting for a name rather than a party. This is particularly important in this era of Brexit where both "main" parties are putting forward candidates with widely diverging views, probably explaining why people having strong opinions on the issue are going for parties that are effectively campaigning on a single issue.

The problem with multi-member constituencies is that generally people get as many votes as there are seats available in that constituency. So most parties will just put forward that number of candidates and people will vote for a straight party list. The best answer I've come up with so far would be for people to have, say, three votes in a constituency with five seats. Then parties would only put up three candidates for fear of splitting their own vote (unless they were confident of overwhelming support) and this would leave some space for minority views to get a look-in. I guess the risk is that some candidates might get elected on very small vote shares.
This is pretty much exactly how the vote-til-you-boak system used for local elections in northern Ireland and Scotland works. You vote for named candidates in order of preference and the normal AV rules apply to progressively redistribute the votes of the last placed candidate and excess votes from heavily winning candidates. It works fairly well, with parties getting candidates roughly in line with their vote share, but unpopular individual candidates not making it through. The main issue is that you need to randomise the order of the candidates on the ballot paper, otherwise there is a risk of all of a party's first pref votes going to one of the candidates, and the other candidates being eliminated. This has led to parties running unduly short slates and missing out on seats they should really have won
 

takno

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It’s mostly tradition that we vote on a Thursday. But I can see a few logistical issues with moving to Sunday where some of the current polling stations might not be available. (Thinking mostly of churches like where I voted this morning).
They mostly seem to have moved to using churches in order to avoid closing so many schools. You might be able to just switch back.
 

GusB

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The most recent Scottish poll had the SNP getting three, Brexit party just edging two, and the greens getting the third. It was a toss up between green, Tory and Labour though, and all within a percent or two of taking the second seat off the Brexit party, and a fourth seat for the SNP not far behind. I would guess if anything that Labour and Tory will be down from that figure and green up a little. No idea on whether Brexit party get a second seat or not
In all honesty, I eventually decided to cast my vote for my preferred party (Green), rather than the SNP. I don't know if there would have been anything to gain from a tactical vote in this election.

I don't know why we can't vote on Sunday like the rest of Europe or would that cause Farage etc to foam at the mouth even more?
There are still parts of the country where doing anything other than breathing on a Sunday will bring Hell, Fire and Damnation (search YouTube for the Reverend W.E. Free...)

Our village hall is now used as a polling station when historically it had been the local primary school. When I was a kid, both buildings were under local authority administration, so I can't understand the logic behind closing the school for a day when an alternative venue was available. You don't question having an extra day off school, though :D
 

Groningen

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We have vote on Thursday as it was the closest to the other countries. Normally elections are only on Wednesday.

Exit polls NL:
PvdA 5 (left)
CDA 4 (christian)
VVD 4 (right)
Groenlinks 3 (more than left)
FvD 3 (extreme right; identical Brexit Party)
D66 2 (left)
CU - SGP 2 (extreme christian)
PVV 1 (anti immigration; identical Brexit Party)
SP 1 (extreme left)
When the UK leaves we get 3 extra seats.
 

ashkeba

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There are still parts of the country where doing anything other than breathing on a Sunday will bring Hell, Fire and Damnation
I thought it was really because politicians fear too many Brits are still drunk from Saturday night and will either not bother vote or vote for the loony party. Thursday is traditional payday and polling stations didn't open before factories so the proles vote on the way home just after getting their little brown wage packet (remember those?)
 

hexagon789

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I'm not sure of the semantics, more interested in whether people think it would be a fair system that doesn't rely on party lists.

The other option I can think of would keep single-member constituencies but grouped into clusters that would also elect one or more extra members. Crucially these would be filled by the closest losers in the constituencies rather than from party lists.

The system you suggest where you get less votes than there are seats to fill and with the highest number of votes being the elected candidates sounds very like the system Gibraltar uses.

I think STV might be better as NI uses.
 

Giugiaro

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In all honesty, I eventually decided to cast my vote for my preferred party (Green), rather than the SNP. I don't know if there would have been anything to gain from a tactical vote in this election.

You still voted for the European Greens, and on Bas Eickhout in extension. Now it depends on each party manifesto. The Greens are mostly against the introduction of security back doors and internet surveillance in Europe, the main reason why I'm deciding to ditch the Socialist (Labour) Party in Portugal in favour of PAN - People, Animals and Nature.

Sorry Timmermans, but my vote this time goes to the Greens.
 
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I am part of Wolverhampton’s counting team for tomorrow’s count - of which will see results be made known once 10pm has hit.

In the West Midlands, my prediction is:

Brexit Party: 3 (+3)
Labour: 2 (NC)
Lib Dems/Greens: 1 (+1)
Conservative: 1 (-1)
UKIP: 0 (-3)

This changes are based on 2014.

Change UK will see there vote squeezed more than enough to deny ex Health Secretary Under Major Steven Dorrell a Seat

Too tight of a race between the Lib Dems and Greens IMO for the last seat; unless the Tory and Labour vote has collapsed enough to give them a seat each.

And The Brexit Party could easily win 4, leaving Labour’s Sion Simon very much on the ropes.
 
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