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HS2 and the next Prime Minister

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och aye

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I wasn't sure if this was appropriate to post in other HS2 threads, but mods please merge my post if these is a more appropriate existing thread that I missed. :)

Obviously its early days regarding who the next PM will be, but it got me wondering of the (so far announced) candidates, what their positions on HS2 are. i.e. "Full steam ahead" or "It's going to hit the buffers"

Given we know Boris' opinion on LHR Runway 3, one would assume it would get the bin if he wins.*

What are folks thoughts, is it possible HS2 could be canned by certain candidates?

*Of course we're talking about politicians here and they do have a tendency to "change their minds" :lol:
 
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JonathanH

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It has been touched on in other threads.

The point for discussion is how to get it across to the candidates that HS2 is necessary.

Many of them are likely to make cancelling HS2 part of their 'pitch', particularly those with constituencies on the route who don't see any benefit for their constituents.
 

Typhoon

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Given we know Boris' opinion on LHR Runway 3, one would assume it would get the bin if he wins.
They could offer to call it The Boris Line. It will get a thumbs up from him then!

Serious point - does it run through any of their constituencies? Sorry too many definites and maybes to check.
 

Mojo

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They could offer to call it The Boris Line. It will get a thumbs up from him then!

Serious point - does it run through any of their constituencies? Sorry too many definites and maybes to check.
It is already having a huge negative impact for those living in Ruislip; Boris Johnson is MP for Uxbridge & South Ruislip, and whilst in that constituency the route will be entirely within tunnels there is significant lorry traffic, road closures and ugly building sites in the areas just to the outside of that constituency but which are used by local residents.
 

td97

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Jeremy Hunt, Dominic Raab and Matt Hancock are (I think) the only pro-HS2 candidates in its current form.
  • Raab is the only of the above to be a leading 'Brexiteer'.
  • Hancock is unlikely, having only recently received a Secretarial post.
  • Hunt has a lot of upset doctors still to deal with.
A lot of the opposition is from the Tory shires, where they perceive no added connectivity, environmental concerns etc., but fail to see that they benefit in the bigger picture (WCML capacity). Including Johnson's, McVey's and Leadsom's constituencies. All of whom wish for rethinks/cancellations/postponements/de-scopement of the project.

It could be a case of be careful what you wish for in terms of the removal of Grayling, which is probable with a full cabinet reshuffle. Like or loathe him, his commitment to HS2 has been paramount to its continued development. Although one of the main reasons Grayling is still a prominent front-bencher is the fact he handled May's winning leadership campaign back in 2016.
 

Typhoon

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It is already having a huge negative impact for those living in Ruislip; Boris Johnson is MP for Uxbridge & South Ruislip, and whilst in that constituency the route will be entirely within tunnels there is significant lorry traffic, road closures and ugly building sites in the areas just to the outside of that constituency but which are used by local residents.
A thumbs down then! No offers of lying in front of bulldozers?

Rather more seriously, it doesn't seem to be the ideal constituency for a potential Prime Minister to have at have at this time. He can't afford to offend too many of his constituents with two controversial projects taking place. If he does get the top job, he is going to be very, very careful over his appointment of Transport Secretary.
 

LNW-GW Joint

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Too many of the candidates are from the leafy London home counties or other southern areas remote from HS2.
Sajid Javid is MP for Bromsgrove (pro), Angela Leadsom for South Northants (anti, despite her area benefitting from HS2).
Esther McVey is MP for Tatton (George Osborne's old constituency).
Despite being a northern MP she is hostile to HS2 (the route through Cheshire is unpopular, of course).
Matt Hancock and Dominic Raab seem neutral to positive, but their constituencies are well away from it so not a local problem for them.
Hunt, Gove, Mordaunt and Johnson seem against, but they are/were spending ministers hoping to gain from transport's loss.
Rory Stewart is MP for Penrith and a supporter.
Graham Brady is MP for Altrincham (next door to Tatton). I think he is a supporter in principle but hostile to the actual route through Cheshire.

It's hard to escape the view that life for HS2 is about to get more difficult, not less.
The PM's views are only one of the whole cabinet's, so it depends what the makeup of that is.
The new Transport SoS will have a major say, and remember it is a bi-partisan project with Labour support (they invented it, after all).
The cabinet also has to live with the budget set by Philip Hammond, and consider the investment to date and any write-off.
We're probably looking at a major review of the project at least, to fit in with the new spending review, with ensuing delay in procurement.
I forgot the Treasury - always the most important force to reckon with.
Philip Hammond (HS2 supporter and former Transport SoS) is unlikely to survive as Chancellor in a Brexit cabinet.
Liz Truss (Chief Sec) is evidently anti and in a very powerful position just now.
We'll have to wait for their "manifestos".
 

Mojo

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Rather more seriously, it doesn't seem to be the ideal constituency for a potential Prime Minister to have at have at this time. He can't afford to offend too many of his constituents with two controversial projects taking place. If he does get the top job, he is going to be very, very careful over his appointment of Transport Secretary.
I’d say more to the point is that it probably isn’t an ideal constituency for a PM because even in its current format it isn’t a very safe seat, and if those Boundary commission proposals were enacted its successor seat of Uxbridge & Northolt would be even less of a safe seat.
 

Polarbear

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I’d say more to the point is that it probably isn’t an ideal constituency for a PM because even in its current format it isn’t a very safe seat, and if those Boundary commission proposals were enacted its successor seat of Uxbridge & Northolt would be even less of a safe seat.

I think Boris Johnson’s majority is only around 5000, which could be overturned.

I suspect after recent events, a certain T May might well end up in the lords, which would leave the very safe Maidenhead seat up for grabs.
 

Mojo

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I suspect after recent events, a certain T May might well end up in the lords, which would leave the very safe Maidenhead seat up for grabs.
Plus also Buckingham which is currently held by the Speaker who allegedly is going to stand down in the summer, or if not, before the next election.
 

squizzler

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I expect a lot of political pressure to accelerate the roll out, commit to HS3/NPR as well as pledge HSR extension to Scotland to buy off an Independence Referendum.

There will continue to be threads on RailUK forums claiming prophesies and visions of despair and ruin for the HSR programme.

I suspect it will just carry on as normal.
 

700007

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I think Boris Johnson’s majority is only around 5000, which could be overturned.

I suspect after recent events, a certain T May might well end up in the lords, which would leave the very safe Maidenhead seat up for grabs.
Boris's seat is only his because South Ruislip put him there but Uxbridge can't wait to get rid of him and put the likes of John McDonnell there who is only a U4 bus away from the constituency. :)
 

td97

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Bevan Price

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I think that any new PM will be too busy trying to secure new trade agreements with EU and elsewhere to devote a lot of thought to HS2.
The pro-Brexit crowd tried to convince us that it would be easy to get new trade agreements. Well, if we want a trade agreement with EU, then EU is likely to specify a lot of conditions, many of which are liable to resemble the withdrawal conditions agreed by Mrs May........
Sort that out, Boris et al....
 

Busaholic

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What chance of any of the candidates who didn't proclaim their support for Brexit pre-Referendum becoming P.M.? Theresa May's premiership almost guarantees that an ex-Remainer has no chance now under any circumstances. The irony that the one who could have gone either way until the last minute could become P.M. through the mass delusion of both Conservative MPs and, more particularly, the members of this moribund party. with no recourse to the country, is not lost on me. Johnson, if made P.M., will change his position on Heathrow expansion just as his London mayoral successor Sadiq Khan did, the difference being that Khan's journey was in the opposite direction!

HS2 is dead, in the sense that if any part of it ever opens it will only be London to Birmingham, with a saving of how many minutes exactly?! I don't believe there is anyone who honestly THINKS, as opposed to opines, that any other part of it will open in the lifetime of anyone on this forum, no matter how young.
 

Glenn1969

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I think abandoning Phase 2 will be a vote loser in the Midlands and the North so they won't do it because they need those seats

I also think Boris is more likely to cancel the 3rd runway than HS2 in any case
 

HSTEd

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Wouldn't it take primary legislation to stop it at the present time?

Given the tiny majority the Tories have I think stopping it is functionally impossible.
 

Jorge Da Silva

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I think abandoning Phase 2 will be a vote loser in the Midlands and the North so they won't do it because they need those seats

I also think Boris is more likely to cancel the 3rd runway than HS2 in any case

Boris may review Phase 2 (not Phase 1 as it is too far in advance) and might even change the route to something different. He is in favour of NPR so I’d expect NPR to get approved in his leadership. Heathrow will get scrapped in his leadership as he has been anti-Heathrow for a very long time. Maybe we will see Boris Island reborn.
 

woodhouse122

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I think abandoning Phase 2 will be a vote loser in the Midlands and the North so they won't do it because they need those seats
there are lots of voters up in the north that want HS2 scrapped so it deffinetly wont be a vote loser
 

hwl

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As Stanley Johnson is directly affected by construction (adjacent but not demolition) by the Euston end of things the Johnson family can't get involved hence Jo when one of the Transport Ministers could have anything to do with HS2 (similarly MPs as Minsiter /SoS effectively can't have anything directly to do with their constuincies in the case of legal hence Nus Ghani the MP for "Uckfield" has had to stay away from BML2 /Lewis /Uckfield) which made ministerial responsibilities in DfT rather tricky for about a year!
 

Typhoon

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I’d say more to the point is that it probably isn’t an ideal constituency for a PM because even in its current format it isn’t a very safe seat, and if those Boundary commission proposals were enacted its successor seat of Uxbridge & Northolt would be even less of a safe seat.
I could have been a lot clearer, my point was that in a seat with a fairly small majority, one group of protesting residents is one too many, two could make life extremely difficult. The then problem is that if you move, you are then accused of running away. Following your statement, I've had a look at a map of the proposed new constituencies (https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/openseatmap.html?seats=2018) which suggests that on 2017 figures Uxbridge & Northolt might elect a Labour MP. There doesn't even seem to be any respite in claiming affiliation to the only ward which is moving to a neighbouring constituency.
I suspect after recent events, a certain T May might well end up in the lords, which would leave the very safe Maidenhead seat up for grabs.
Whether they would be happy to see the very person who has been undermining their MP from the word 'go' take her place might be a moot point. She's been their MP for over 20 years.
 

Wivenswold

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HS2 was Cameron's baby (though not one he left the pub without). I think May would have scaled the project back if her premiership had been a success. Falling passenger numbers, commuters especially were already ringing alarm bells in the treasury.
 

The Ham

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What chance of any of the candidates who didn't proclaim their support for Brexit pre-Referendum becoming P.M.? Theresa May's premiership almost guarantees that an ex-Remainer has no chance now under any circumstances. The irony that the one who could have gone either way until the last minute could become P.M. through the mass delusion of both Conservative MPs and, more particularly, the members of this moribund party. with no recourse to the country, is not lost on me. Johnson, if made P.M., will change his position on Heathrow expansion just as his London mayoral successor Sadiq Khan did, the difference being that Khan's journey was in the opposite direction!

HS2 is dead, in the sense that if any part of it ever opens it will only be London to Birmingham, with a saving of how many minutes exactly?! I don't believe there is anyone who honestly THINKS, as opposed to opines, that any other part of it will open in the lifetime of anyone on this forum, no matter how young.

London to Birmingham is a time saving of ~30 minutes.

However I'll highlight what I've highlighted before and it all goes very quiet from those opposed to HS2 which is since 2009 rail growth between London and the regions which benefit from HS2 phase 1 was justified on growth of circa 50%, which would mean by about now growth should be at about 25% to be on track.

Rail growth had actually already reached 70% (so nearly x3 higher than predicted). At the very least this would imply something is needed and fairly soon. If it's not too be HS2 then we need something else fairly quickly.

View media item 3340
If you look at the passenger loadings for Euston, the average over the day is 60% whilst in the evening peak (16:00 to 18:59) it's over 85%. Which again implies something needs to be done soon.

If it is cancelled then I'd expect that any such victory is likely to be short lived as pressure will mount for something to happen, especially given that we are supposed to be driving and flying less.

Unless we manage to halt the predicted ~10% growth in pollution in the next 15 years to keep congestion at broadly similar levels we may have to reduce how much we all drive by an average of 700 miles a year. If rail isn't possible due to capacity constraints then what other options are there? Flying?

Before someone suggested HSUK you may wish to look at the maps for how they get out of London, in that they use the MML. Which is hardly likely to provide many spare paths what with Thameslink services using it too.
 

The Ham

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Whether they would be happy to see the very person who has been undermining their MP from the word 'go' take her place might be a moot point. She's been their MP for over 20 years.

Has May even confirmed that she's no longer going to be a MP? If not her seat won't be up for anyone else to use unless the local party try and force her out (if that's possible? I don't know so is a genuine question).
 

158756

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Has May even confirmed that she's no longer going to be a MP? If not her seat won't be up for anyone else to use unless the local party try and force her out (if that's possible? I don't know so is a genuine question).

No PM since Callaghan has stood in another election afterwards. Only Blair resigned immediately though. Either way, it would be foolish for the new PM to attempt to switch seats - what message does it send about the party's chances of winning the election if the PM doesn't think he can hold his own seat?
 

Sceptre

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As Stanley Johnson is directly affected by construction (adjacent but not demolition) by the Euston end of things the Johnson family can't get involved hence Jo when one of the Transport Ministers could have anything to do with HS2 (similarly MPs as Minsiter /SoS effectively can't have anything directly to do with their constuincies in the case of legal hence Nus Ghani the MP for "Uckfield" has had to stay away from BML2 /Lewis /Uckfield) which made ministerial responsibilities in DfT rather tricky for about a year!

Of course, such considerations regarding judicial review haven't stopped Chris Grayling from bigging up Crossrail 2.

Speaking of Chris, I've heard he's thrown his ring into a hat and has declared his intention to stand for party leader. Lib Dem sources said the nomination was surprising and expressed doubt that he could gain the support of 10% of the Parliamentary Party to get on the ballot.
 

Robertj21a

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London to Birmingham is a time saving of ~30 minutes.

However I'll highlight what I've highlighted before and it all goes very quiet from those opposed to HS2 which is since 2009 rail growth between London and the regions which benefit from HS2 phase 1 was justified on growth of circa 50%, which would mean by about now growth should be at about 25% to be on track.

Rail growth had actually already reached 70% (so nearly x3 higher than predicted). At the very least this would imply something is needed and fairly soon. If it's not too be HS2 then we need something else fairly quickly.

View media item 3340
If you look at the passenger loadings for Euston, the average over the day is 60% whilst in the evening peak (16:00 to 18:59) it's over 85%. Which again implies something needs to be done soon.

If it is cancelled then I'd expect that any such victory is likely to be short lived as pressure will mount for something to happen, especially given that we are supposed to be driving and flying less.

Unless we manage to halt the predicted ~10% growth in pollution in the next 15 years to keep congestion at broadly similar levels we may have to reduce how much we all drive by an average of 700 miles a year. If rail isn't possible due to capacity constraints then what other options are there? Flying?

Before someone suggested HSUK you may wish to look at the maps for how they get out of London, in that they use the MML. Which is hardly likely to provide many spare paths what with Thameslink services using it too.

Perhaps it would be more sensible to analyse quite WHY so many people need to travel to/from London. With phone conferencing etc now readily available, it might seem more logical to also encourage some employers to relocate out into the provinces.
 

js1000

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I can see HS2 Phase 2 being scrapped due to spiralling costs. £55 billion is such a low estimate it's worrying. If Network Rail's recent electrification cost guesses are anything to go by I'd suggest the full cost will be more like £100 billion. Once the true cost becomes apparent when construction on Phase 1 is in full swing then scrapping Phase 2 becomes more and more likely.

HS2 Phase 2 can be canned quite easily and the money put into more tangible schemes that directly appeal to everyday commuters and voters in the north. For instance, give Leeds money for a tram network, resolve Manchester's capacity problem through Castlefield and upgrade the two trans-Pennine between Manchester and Leeds/Sheffield. All of the above would cost about ~£10 billion - a fraction of the cost that Phase 2 is going to cost at £40 billion I'd estimate for a high speed line the general public aren't really interested in and do not perceive any tangible benefit.
 
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