I think just over half of 158's are completed, about 8 or 9 150's and none of the 153's (first one is currently in for refurb now I believe). 158's and 153's should be ok, 150's might be tight for completion by December.
From what I hear (rumour) 769's should be on by Sept, 170's and 230's on line by October.
According to Wiki, the second hand trains due - 9x 769's (4 cars), 12x 170's (4x 2 car, 8x 3 car) and 5x 230's. Are all of these expected to be delivered and in service by the end of 2019?
The 230's will free up 4x 150's (Wrexham-Bidston - 2 units, Blaenau - 1 unit, Crewe-Chester - 1 unit and one spare 230 unit).
The 9 769's effectively equivalent of 18 pacers
The 12 170's meaning the total equivalent of 34 units, replacing 30 pacers (Not accounting for spare 769 & 170's being parked up). Any delays to the delivery of any of these though could put TfW in an awkward position as they won't have Pacers to fall back on.
Welcome, love your name
I have a list on
https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/transport-for-wales-livery.172016/page-9 (post #268)
PRM-TSI compliant TfW units are, as of 9/6/19:
158-818/819/822/823/824/825/826/829/830/831/835/836/839/840/841 (15 of 24 modified)
150-217/242/253/254/257/284/285 (7 of 36 modified)
175-001 to 011, 175-101 to 116 - all 27 built to be RVAR compliant, accepted as PRM-TSI compliant
(No 153s - 0 of 13 modified)
So of TfW's 100 (total) units that are members of classes 150/153/158/175, 49 (49%) are compliant.
As for the 170s, 230s and 769s that should all be in service with TfW by the end of 2019:
170-270 to 273, 170-201 to 208 - all 12 built to be RVAR compliant, accepted as PRM-TSI compliant
230-(006) to (010) - all 5 are being fitted out to PRM-TSI compliance as part of rebuild
769-002/003/006/007/008, 769-426/4xx/4xx/4xx - all 9 modified (previous TOC or conversion...?)
So of the 26 units that will officially be joining the TfW fleet by 2020, all 26 are / will be compliant.
If we combine the 150s/153s/158s/175s (as of 9/6/19) with the 170s/230s/769s (on delivery), that's 75 out of 126 units (~59.5%) being PRM-TSI compliant. That means that there's 29 weeks to get 51 units (29 150s, 13 153s and 9 158s) modified.
That's a mostly consistent two units per week. By comparison, it's taken roughly 52 weeks to get just 22 units (15 158s and 7 150s) modified. Half as many 150s have been modified as 158s, but in half the time as they started 6 months later.
So if that rate of progress continues, by 2020 let's say we'll see the remaining 9 158s and another 9 150s modified, which would mean still only 93 of TfW's 126 units (~74%) being PRM-TSI compliant. I understand that the hired Mark 2 sets and possibly "temporary extra units" displaced from other TOCs would allow TfW's 150s to be modified quicker and their 153s to undergo the modifications.
As it is though, a 33-unit "gap" would need to be filled at the beginning of 2020 - I can imagine some desperate measure like all 9 of GA's PRM modified (think they are) 156s temporarily going to TfW (which would be dependent on 21 755s being in service by then, as it's their 12 170s that are going to TfW), and fines being paid for up to 24 (total) unmodified 150s/153s to remain in service until they're modified. 1/1/20 is certainly going to be "interesting"...
As for the introduction of 170s, 230s and 769s, I believe that all 12 170s go off-lease from GA on 1/10/19, the 230s were all in build at some stage in late March and will be delivered from later summer to the end of 2019, and 769-002 and 008 have been delivered to Cardiff Canton depot (last I heard was 002 had been moving around the depot under its own power, and 008 was still in the sidings). Now that the exhaust pipe and bogie issues on the 769s have been worked out, I reckon those units might start coming in quicker before long.
The plan with the Pacer replacement as I understand it, is that 9 of the 30 will be directly replaced by the 9 769s, and the introduction of the 12 170s and 5 230s on the wider network will facilitate an "internal" cascade of 17 150s to "Valley Lines" (pretend it's still a seperate TOC) which will mean that "their" allocation will go from
15 142s / 15 143s / 6 150s, to
23 150s / 9 769s. So 4 fewer units, but a horizontal carriage space increase on that network/sub-network of 500 metres from 1140m to 1640m.
Per unit, Pacers have 2 15m carriages, 150s have 2 20m carriages and 769s have 4 20m carriages. And the Pacers have to be doubled up to achieve still only 75% of the length of a single 769, so the 4 fewer units won't be an issue. 9 769s are of equivalent capacity to 18 150s, not 18 Pacers. 9 769s are of equivalent capacity to 24 Pacers, due to Pacer carriages being only 15m in length rather than 20m.
TfW CEO James Price made this mistake at the 9/1/19 Senedd econ/infra/skills committee meeting, claiming (in response to a tweet stating that an 0702 Bargoed service was crowded) that while that duty should be booked 4-car as soon as possible, it was not short-formed as per the timetable inherited from ATW, because it was booked 2-car and was running 2-car, and that the "different type of rolling stock" that was substituted (a Pacer covering for a 150) had "similar capacity" but was "more difficult to board".
In fact this was nonsense - the simple fact of the matter is that that duty of that service
was short-formed, because the Pacer was 30m in length and was covering for a 150 that would've been 40m in length. So, the rolling stock being used on that run was in fact only capable of providing 75% of the booked capacity, not "100% of it with so-called boarding difficulties, whatever they may have been".
What units are you implying that "12 170s" (8 3-car 170s and 4 2-car 170s) are of equivalent capacity to...? 170 carriages are of a different length again (23m, same as 153/158 carriages), and the 12 170s that are transferring from GA to TfW are formed from a total of 32 23m carriages which is a total of 736m of horizontal carriage space. This is equivalent to inbetween 24 (720m) and 25 (750m) of TfW's Pacers, inbetween 18 (720m) and 19 (760m) of their 150s, or 16 (736m) of their 158s.
Again, welcome
PRM-TSI - Persons with Reduced Mobility - Technical Specifications for Interoperability
TfW - Transport for Wales
RVAR - Rail Vehicle Accessibility Regulations
TOCs - Train Operating Companies
GA - Greater Anglia
ATW - Arriva Trains Wales