Financial Difficulty at Northern?

Personally, I've found Northern rail to have improved a lot since I moved to Manchester last year. It's actually almost usable and I can almost trust it to get me to my destination on time!

The more recent delays/cancellations I've suffered have mostly been to do with problems with the infrastructure rather than Northern themselves and although they are not favoured by many on the forum, the 319s on Bolton are a lot smoother and quieter. Things are gradually getting better, less shortforms and absolutely insane crush loads at rush hour but definitely have a long way to go to match comparable franchises...

Bantamzen said:

I know it's almost ingrained into popular culture to moan about Northern, and they are behind with some facets, but on your points:

- More ticket machines are starting to appear at many stations
- I'm not sure what you mean by pre-introduction hell, many units are out testing, some even at staff training stages
- Connect was never going to be a priority until the new stock rolled out enough to cover the proposed routes
- Seat reservations were never a thing with this particular franchise, and will only be rolled out with Connect
- WiFi - Really, there's plenty out there already, with the rest to come with refurbishment
- As for cheap everywhere, like it or not the DfT require Northern to drastically reduce subsidies whilst also increasing capacity & updating stock. So something has to give, unless of course you'd like to see even higher ticket prices so that they can spec-up the interiors (which by the way most people I see & hear think are OK, if not spectacular)

There's lots of things wrong with the current franchise, some Arriva's making, others not. But a lot of the delivery issues have been beyond their control, and replacing something close to half their fleet with brand new stock when so many other TOCs are also ordering new stock and/or refurbishing existing, its hardly a surprise that things get delayed. And if anyone disagrees & thinks they could figure out better, then I'd suggest an intimidate change of career!!

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So it's a bit like
getting a builder in to fit a new bathroom. And he delivers in late, and the bathroom suite is in the wrong colour. And the plumbing leaks.

But he says you have to pay up because anyone else would have also bodged it.

quantinghome said:

True to an extent. However, Arriva's plans basically relied on everything to go right, which doesn't happen in real life. There was no wriggle room for inevitable delays in new infrastructure, trains etc. They should have realised this. A more sensible approach would have been to get the refurbs done, introduce the new trains without changing the timetable and iron out any teething troubles. Then, once that was done, overhaul the timetable with a big marketing push for Northern Connect.

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We can't really say if Arriva did or didn't mitigate for slippage, maybe they didn't when they certainly should have. The problem is that the franchise owner, i.e. the DfT, were busy setting an awful lot of deadlines & expectations for an awful lot of the industry that may not have been really able to achieve. And as mentioned elsewhere, this is where the system falls down because would-be franchisees have to bid towards the expectations of DfT or not have a chance to win.

Djgr said:

So it's a bit like
getting a builder in to fit a new bathroom. And he delivers in late, and the bathroom suite is in the wrong colour. And the plumbing leaks.

But he says you have to pay up because anyone else would have also bodged it.

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Exactly nothing like that at all. That's like comparing apples & a large, opened bag of Revels!!

All that really matters is what the customer thinks of the product Northern have delivered. Clearly the answer is: not much. Few people have anything impressive say about holistic delivery, although there are occasionally good points (for example, the new ticket vending machine software is actually very good - not that it counts for much when placement is so poor, and so many busy stations are given only a single machine, a long walk away from some entrances). The statistics imply lost passengers, some of whom won't return. Even those who will say literally anything to defend the operation haven't got much they can go on. Most of us will take a view from both sides, and will see that there's still a chance. A reasonably good chance, I hope, but it needs work. The politics of the situation is fraught. Support for further investment in the railway is almost gone because of the poor delivery. Genuine enhancements that that will actually grow Northern's market have only just shown up, more than 3 years into the contract. They will take a long time to feed in. Fundamentally, we wouldn't be having this conversation if it weren't obvious there had been terminal problems.

People can argue that it is not really Arriva's fault, but that could apply to any franchise. Fundamentally if Arriva don't like it they can always open legal action against the government if they cannot agree with one another, that seems to be all the rage these days.

Starmill said:

All that really matters is what the customer thinks of the product Northern have delivered. Clearly the answer is: not much. Few people have anything impressive say about holistic delivery, although there are occasionally good points (for example, the new ticket vending machine software is actually very good - not that it counts for much when placement is so poor, and so many busy stations are given only a single machine, a long walk away from some entrances). The statistics imply lost passengers, some of whom won't return. Even those who will say literally anything to defend the operation haven't got much they can go on. Most of us will take a view from both sides, and will see that there's still a chance. A reasonably good chance, I hope, but it needs work. The politics of the situation is fraught. Support for further investment in the railway is almost gone because of the poor delivery. Genuine enhancements that that will actually grow Northern's market have only just shown up, more than 3 years into the contract. They will take a long time to feed in. Fundamentally, we wouldn't be having this conversation if it weren't obvious there had been terminal problems.

People can argue that it is not really Arriva's fault, but that could apply to any franchise. Fundamentally if Arriva don't like it they can always open legal action against the government if they cannot agree with one another, that seems to be all the rage these days.

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Having said all of this, the drop in an annual passenger journeys at Northern for 18-19 compared to 17-18 is only around 2 million. That's a smaller contraction than I had feared. Perhaps things won't be so bad after all. The contraction in numbers represents less than 2%

Starmill said:

Having said all of this, the drop in an annual passenger journeys at Northern for 18-19 compared to 17-18 is only around 2 million. That's a smaller contraction than I had feared. Perhaps things won't be so bad after all. The contraction in numbers represents less than 2%

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I suppose the question is, what level of passenger growth was the franchise predicated on, and therefore just how big of a problem is this? The 'good' news from Northern's perspective is that they will be compensated to some extent (though no doubt they'll be arguing not fully!) by the DfT for strike-related reductions. Of course, I also wonder whether the drop is down to the way that passenger numbers are measured, by ticket sale volumes. On strike Saturdays I imagine there will have been a not insubstantial number of people who travelled without a ticket, legitimately or otherwise.

Bantamzen said:

Over on the Northern refurbishment thread it was said a while back that accessibility and general refresh works were prioritised over things like USB ports which can be fitted retrospectively. So I wouldn't read too much into this.

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In many cases I would agreed with you, but these particular sockets are mounted in the side panels, so if they retro-fit them they will probably need to remove all the seats and side panels so they can get the wiring it, then touch up the paintwork once all the panels are screwed back. This seems rather unlikely.

Of course they could have put the wiring in behind the panels, but this also seems unlikely as normal practice would be to put blanking plates instead of the sockets, and there's no sign of anything like that - and even if they had, a lot of dismantling would still be necessary to get at the wiring given that there aren't blanking plates for them to be attached to for easy access.

At the risk of a flame war, they could learn a few lessons from us Yorkshire folk...

Well one lesson is not to try to run trains in Liverpool when you based nearly a hundred miles away.

Starmill said:

Having said all of this, the drop in an annual passenger journeys at Northern for 18-19 compared to 17-18 is only around 2 million. That's a smaller contraction than I had feared. Perhaps things won't be so bad after all. The contraction in numbers represents less than 2%

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I'm similarly surprised at how small the drop has been, given that there'd been very little ticketed travel for one seventh of the week for a long period (on top of lots of vocal complaints from people giving up train travel as a result of the disruption on lines like Bolton).

Given the margins that franchises operate under, and the assumed growth that Arriva will have forecast, it may be that this mild drop is still sufficient to sink their finances (especially as they've significantly increased costs, taken on more staff, taken on more DMUs, increased the number of services in operation), so I'm not suggesting that everything is tickety-boo but I was expecting much worse from the way that the franchise has been criticised by most people. That's not to excuse all of Arriva's decisions (or the decisions that the winning bidder would have been under, given the franchise specifications etc).

Bantamzen said:

It does seem like a tale of two Northerns at times doesn't it? There's no doubt improvement has taken place on the right side of the Pennines, we've had some genuine changes for the better, a lot more strengthened services running around, and we've probably had some of the best refurbishments with the 333s and 170s. Its just a shame that the North West doesn't seem quite so well run.

At the risk of a flame war, they could learn a few lessons from us Yorkshire folk...

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Well, around Leeds there have been improvements (an additional service per hour to Wakefield/ Knottingley, an additional per hour to Harrogate, an additional service per hour to York, direct Blackpool services back again, extended services to places like Chester).

Around Sheffield the only real improvement has been on the Worksop corridor (158s replacing Pacers, then introduction of a second service per hour from Sheffield to North Nottinghamshire/ Lincolnshire, albeit using the same Pacers that passengers had just got rid of!). Little improvement on the core services to Doncaster/Leeds though (170s on some Hull services is nice, mind). Doubled up services are a rarity - there was even a single 153 running around during the daytime yesterday (UID).

There's definitely some "jam" tomorrow (assuming current plans come to fruition), and we've not had the same problems that Lancashire has had, but I think that most of the benefits thus far under the new franchise are around Leeds or are in the "fringes" of the franchise (e.g. great for Gainsborough, Bishop Auckland, Chester).

Djgr said:

Well one lesson is not to try to run trains in Liverpool when you based nearly a hundred miles away.

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What a bizarre argument. How many franchises are there with the whole operation within 100 miles of HQ?

Shaw S Hunter said:

What a bizarre argument. How many franchises are there with the whole operation within 100 miles of HQ?

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Well one major advantage would be that it might have been easier to build a relationship with the Liverpool and Manchester Metro Mayors, who are two of the key players who want shut of Northern.

Bantamzen said:

And if anyone disagrees & thinks they could figure out better, then I'd suggest an intimidate change of career!!

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I'm no brain surgeon, but if the patient's had his brain scooped out I'm qualified to say that a bad job was done.

I didn't have high expectations for Arriva- just being no worse than Serco would have done. But to over-promise and under-deliver against those expectations is quire the achievement.

Arriva have really ruined the Northern franchise and the fact they are in so much financial trouble is mostly their own doing. I worked for FNW and the whole Serco/Abellio franchise and on the whole staff were reasonably happy, there was lots to improve but I believe it could have been achieved. Arriva turned up and in the year I worked for them they had utterly destroyed any good will between them and the staff. The level of incompetence I witnessed by managers of all levels throughout the business was staggering and the contempt shown towards the passengers was truly sad to see. I wouldn't know where to go with it to be honest, perhaps splitting it up to two companies may work but it needs a clear out from top to bottom to get rid of some real bad apples. Their financial woes like I say are primarily down to them, if I was a passenger I would have walked away long ago and never returned and I think a lot have.

Djgr said:

Well one major advantage would be that it might have been easier to build a relationship with the Liverpool and Manchester Metro Mayors, who are two of the key players who want shut of Northern.

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With due respect to Messrs Burnham and Rotheram most of their moans are just the same as everyone else's and they offer no realistic alternatives/solutions. As is often repeated here a change in franchise operator doesn't actually change very much; indeed the Williams Review has been commissioned due to the widespread dissatisfaction with the whole structure of the passenger railway. It seems that the possibilities which attract the most support are either an even greater freedom for the private sector within the industry or renationalisation: neither of those is likely to lead to a greater local say in strategic decision making.

Shaw S Hunter said:

As is often repeated here a change in franchise operator doesn't actually change very much;

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Just because something is often repeated doesn’t make it true. Dilbertphil’s post proves that, as does many people’s experience of Serco/Abellio run Northern and Arriva run Northern.

Bertie the bus said:

Just because something is often repeated doesn’t make it true. Dilbertphil’s post proves that, as does many people’s experience of Serco/Abellio run Northern and Arriva run Northern.

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The Northern franchise has been in decline since then-MD Heidi Mottram was head-hunted by Northumbrian Water back in 2010. The near-collapse in staff goodwill of recent times has as much to do with the DfT insistence on Arriva going to "IR war" over DOO as it is to do with Arriva themselves. But I remember the 1980s when the Treasury insisted that BR replaced its DMU fleet on a 2-for-3 basis: this cast the die for DfT attitudes to rail in the provinces. Coupled with the commercialisation that came with (quasi-)privatisation this puts the subsidy hungry TOCs under continual pressure from bean counters who are interested solely in the financials with no regard for the customer experience.

What's needed is a complete change in the political atmosphere around railways (and many other constructs of national importance). Not going to happen while Brexit overshadows everything but the very same issue may well lead to significant changes to the political landscape which might allow for a more enlightened attitude towards public financing of socially valuable services.

tbtc said:

Well, around Leeds there have been improvements (an additional service per hour to Wakefield/ Knottingley, an additional per hour to Harrogate, an additional service per hour to York, direct Blackpool services back again, extended services to places like Chester).

Around Sheffield the only real improvement has been on the Worksop corridor (158s replacing Pacers, then introduction of a second service per hour from Sheffield to North Nottinghamshire/ Lincolnshire, albeit using the same Pacers that passengers had just got rid of!). Little improvement on the core services to Doncaster/Leeds though (170s on some Hull services is nice, mind). Doubled up services are a rarity - there was even a single 153 running around during the daytime yesterday (UID).

There's definitely some "jam" tomorrow (assuming current plans come to fruition), and we've not had the same problems that Lancashire has had, but I think that most of the benefits thus far under the new franchise are around Leeds or are in the "fringes" of the franchise (e.g. great for Gainsborough, Bishop Auckland, Chester).

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There have been plenty of others in the Yorkshire region, but mindful of the mod's request not to get into timetabling I'll just mention that on my line we got hourly Sunday services very early on in the franchise. But in my neck of the woods we are seeing some other simple improvements like ticket machines (some may not think these are improvements as such, but for many just being able to get a ticket easily or collect TODs from their local station is seen as such), new shelters, improved CCTV, even just better ensuring that platforms are gritted in cold weather. These might not be headline-busting improvements, but they contribute towards an improving customer experience.

There of course is still an long way to go. But as a very regular user of Northern services in West Yorkshire at least, I can say with a good degree of confidence that things in this region are improving, capacity is (where it is currently possible) growing, and generally the experience has got a bit better.

Arctic Troll said:

I'm no brain surgeon, but if the patient's had his brain scooped out I'm qualified to say that a bad job was done.

I didn't have high expectations for Arriva- just being no worse than Serco would have done. But to over-promise and under-deliver against those expectations is quire the achievement.

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Another bizarre comparison!

I may have mentioned before that I am a member of a local rail user group, and I can tell you that generally speaking things are improving. I know there are far more serious issues over in the North West, and that there is serious disparity between the two managements either side of the Pennines that needs urgent attention, although judging by the recent strike action I can't help but wonder that any attempt to level that up would be met with serious resistance from the TU leaderships.

I've been told off before on here about saying positive things about Northern, but in the name of balance its important to point out that not everything they touch turns to manure. My point in all this is that if there are members out there who genuinely feel they could do better, I'm sure Arriva would love to receive their CV & application. Or failing that, and something I regularly say, join user engagement groups and take an active part in trying to make the job a bit better. But sadly most people on social media in general just wallow in the moaning rather than trying to effect change & improvement.

Shaw S Hunter said:

The Northern franchise has been in decline since then-MD Heidi Mottram was head-hunted by Northumbrian Water back in 2010. The near-collapse in staff goodwill of recent times has as much to do with the DfT insistence on Arriva going to "IR war" over DOO as it is to do with Arriva themselves. But I remember the 1980s when the Treasury insisted that BR replaced its DMU fleet on a 2-for-3 basis: this cast the die for DfT attitudes to rail in the provinces. Coupled with the commercialisation that came with (quasi-)privatisation this puts the subsidy hungry TOCs under continual pressure from bean counters who are interested solely in the financials with no regard for the customer experience.

What's needed is a complete change in the political atmosphere around railways (and many other constructs of national importance). Not going to happen while Brexit overshadows everything but the very same issue may well lead to significant changes to the political landscape which might allow for a more enlightened attitude towards public financing of socially valuable services.

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This is a very interesting post, and highlights an often ignored facet of the privatised network. We probably by now mostly agree that the franchise system is broken, and that the government is imposing it's own political aspirations on current and future franchises. In my opinion public transport is key to economic success, and should be subsided where needed. Sadly the fundamental changes needed are not with the operators, but at Whitehall & more importantly at Westminster.

Bantamzen said:

There have been plenty of others in the Yorkshire region, but mindful of the mod's request not to get into timetabling I'll just mention that on my line we got hourly Sunday services very early on in the franchise. But in my neck of the woods we are seeing some other simple improvements like ticket machines (some may not think these are improvements as such, but for many just being able to get a ticket easily or collect TODs from their local station is seen as such), new shelters, improved CCTV, even just better ensuring that platforms are gritted in cold weather. These might not be headline-busting improvements, but they contribute towards an improving customer experience.

There of course is still an long way to go. But as a very regular user of Northern services in West Yorkshire at least, I can say with a good degree of confidence that things in this region are improving, capacity is (where it is currently possible) growing, and generally the experience has got a bit better.



Another bizarre comparison!

I may have mentioned before that I am a member of a local rail user group, and I can tell you that generally speaking things are improving. I know there are far more serious issues over in the North West, and that there is serious disparity between the two managements either side of the Pennines that needs urgent attention, although judging by the recent strike action I can't help but wonder that any attempt to level that up would be met with serious resistance from the TU leaderships.

I've been told off before on here about saying positive things about Northern, but in the name of balance its important to point out that not everything they touch turns to manure. My point in all this is that if there are members out there who genuinely feel they could do better, I'm sure Arriva would love to receive their CV & application. Or failing that, and something I regularly say, join user engagement groups and take an active part in trying to make the job a bit better. But sadly most people on social media in general just wallow in the moaning rather than trying to effect change & improvement.



This is a very interesting post, and highlights an often ignored facet of the privatised network. We probably by now mostly agree that the franchise system is broken, and that the government is imposing it's own political aspirations on current and future franchises. In my opinion public transport is key to economic success, and should be subsided where needed. Sadly the fundamental changes needed are not with the operators, but at Whitehall & more importantly at Westminster.

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Beginning with far greater devolution.

dilbertphil said:

Arriva have really ruined the Northern franchise and the fact they are in so much financial trouble is mostly their own doing. I worked for FNW and the whole Serco/Abellio franchise and on the whole staff were reasonably happy, there was lots to improve but I believe it could have been achieved. Arriva turned up and in the year I worked for them they had utterly destroyed any good will between them and the staff. The level of incompetence I witnessed by managers of all levels throughout the business was staggering and the contempt shown towards the passengers was truly sad to see. I wouldn't know where to go with it to be honest, perhaps splitting it up to two companies may work but it needs a clear out from top to bottom to get rid of some real bad apples. Their financial woes like I say are primarily down to them, if I was a passenger I would have walked away long ago and never returned and I think a lot have.

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Ah, the disgruntled ex-employee.

If managers at all levels were incompetent then it isn’t solely an Arriva issue. Franchises do not generally change all the levels of management - the vast majority will be the same people doing the same roles as in the previous franchise.

Not strictly true. Some managers were present in the last Northern franchise yes. However a few were drafted in by Arriva themselves. Area North MD joined the company in 2016. Left earlier this year. Was a long time serving Royal Navy employee with no railway experience whatsoever.

43096 said:

Ah, the disgruntled ex-employee

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No not really, I have no axe to grind with Northern. Unlike yourself though I have seen what went on first hand so unlike you am qualified to discuss it on this forum.

dilbertphil said:

No not really, I have no axe to grind with Northern. Unlike yourself though I have seen what went on first hand so unlike you am qualified to discuss it on this forum.

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Of course you don’t have an axe to grind. Ex-employees always say that, funnily enough. I note you didn’t bother with the rest of my comment about management.

Shaw S Hunter said:

With due respect to Messrs Burnham and Rotheram most of their moans are just the same as everyone else's and they offer no realistic alternatives/solutions. As is often repeated here a change in franchise operator doesn't actually change very much; indeed the Williams Review has been commissioned due to the widespread dissatisfaction with the whole structure of the passenger railway. It seems that the possibilities which attract the most support are either an even greater freedom for the private sector within the industry or renationalisation: neither of those is likely to lead to a greater local say in strategic decision making.

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Is TfL not nationalised?
T&W Metro, even when it was contracted out?
Metrolink?

The combined authorities, & their subsidiary Transport for Xs, are in a position of some power, against a government, & future government, that is in a weakened state.

I could easily see Northern being broken up, with many of the services being devolved to regional transport bodies, & the remainder going to TPE.

Shaw S Hunter said:

The Northern franchise has been in decline since then-MD Heidi Mottram was head-hunted by Northumbrian Water back in 2010. The near-collapse in staff goodwill of recent times has as much to do with the DfT insistence on Arriva going to "IR war" over DOO as it is to do with Arriva themselves. But I remember the 1980s when the Treasury insisted that BR replaced its DMU fleet on a 2-for-3 basis: this cast the die for DfT attitudes to rail in the provinces. Coupled with the commercialisation that came with (quasi-)privatisation this puts the subsidy hungry TOCs under continual pressure from bean counters who are interested solely in the financials with no regard for the customer experience.

What's needed is a complete change in the political atmosphere around railways (and many other constructs of national importance). Not going to happen while Brexit overshadows everything but the very same issue may well lead to significant changes to the political landscape which might allow for a more enlightened attitude towards public financing of socially valuable services.

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ie. the DfT, which are a proxy for the Treasury

Which is another reason to break up Northern & devolve the appropriate parts to the combined authorities.
Look at what Merseytravel are doing, they've bought brand new rolling stock on the basis that it will be cheaper than leasing it.


Im not suggesting that the TfXs operate the services themselves, as the services taken on would be much larger than anything they currently operate, but they could be the ones deciding on timetabling, service levels, investment etc.

43096 said:

Ah, the disgruntled ex-employee.

If managers at all levels were incompetent then it isn’t solely an Arriva issue. Franchises do not generally change all the levels of management - the vast majority will be the same people doing the same roles as in the previous franchise.

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Arriva are renowned for mismanagement. Ask TfW or merseyrail employees, they are a happier lot since the penny pinching ways of arriva have been ditched.

Arriva turn up, run a costing exercise and then squeeze more than is barely minimum. Hence why maintenance and cleaning staff are generally the first to go, then maintence schedules are ran to the limit - meaning more trains off the road = more crowded services but less fuel used and lower track charges.

Arriva really don't care about what passengers think or experience, or its staff for that matter - the company and its values are rotten.

Serco knew it's limitations. But employed people who understood the business in key areas.

Arriva is a bus company who after many years and failed franchises still doesn't understand rail. The management (of rail staff) generally doesn't change. But they have zero influence on the factors that cause arrivas problems. The corporate management changes regularly - and that is the sign of a company that hasn't a clue what it is doing.

option said:

Is TfL not nationalised?
T&W Metro, even when it was contracted out?
Metrolink?

The combined authorities, & their subsidiary Transport for Xs, are in a position of some power, against a government, & future government, that is in a weakened state.

I could easily see Northern being broken up, with many of the services being devolved to regional transport bodies, & the remainder going to TPE.






ie. the DfT, which are a proxy for the Treasury

Which is another reason to break up Northern & devolve the appropriate parts to the combined authorities.
Look at what Merseytravel are doing, they've bought brand new rolling stock on the basis that it will be cheaper than leasing it.


Im not suggesting that the TfXs operate the services themselves, as the services taken on would be much larger than anything they currently operate, but they could be the ones deciding on timetabling, service levels, investment etc.

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Firstly there is a difference between local public ownership/control and centrally controlled nationalisation.

Secondly while I totally agree with the principle of devolved decision making it's almost pointless without an appropriate financial arrangement. Unless you allow for more local taxation any form of devolved government is absolutely dependent on central government funding which brings us back to the Treasury bean counters. It has been a long standing policy in this country for central government to continually reduce local government budgets to the extent that some LAs have approached bankruptcy.

I have suggested that the fall-out from Brexit may change the political landscape. It's ironic that the Treaty of Maastricht made much of the principle of subsidiarity which is quasi-devolution in layman's terms; this country's governments have perhaps been the least enthusiastic of all when it comes to adopting this principle.

If they are having problems it doesn't seem to be affecting the Deliveries of New Stock as I witnessed this Morning on the M5 Northbound near Grubbs causeway Bristol

This morning M5 Bristol

Haarlem999 said:

This morning M5 Bristol

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Good photos but maybe don't worry about them if your driving...

43096 said:

Ah, the disgruntled ex-employee.

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So do you have better first- (or even second-) hand information?

Haarlem999 said:

This morning M5 Bristol

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Those doors aren't very closed...