It also has the backing of the Welsh Government.
In terms of financial backing or just lip service?
It also has the backing of the Welsh Government.
In terms of financial backing or just lip service?
It might be if it would clash with pathing for the proposed Grand Union services?Go-Op. It is not relevant to this though is??
If a train is bought by a rolling stock leasing company (a ROSCO) for use by a train operating company (TOC) then the leasing payments made by the TOC have to be competitive with other rolling stock - new or used - supplied by the same or a different ROSCO. The TOC and the ROSCO can them make their own choices as to whether the trains are to be maintained by the TOC, by a contract maintenance company (which may be another TOC if it operates compatible stock) or by the manufacturer. In any event there is an element of competition in the process which should ensure a suitable solution is found. For stock procured in this way the TOC carries the financial risk that the train may not be available for service - and it may chose to carry the extra costs of service disruption because the alternative, for example buying a bigger fleet or reducing maintenance intervals, are more expensive.So why did FirstGroup buy a vehicle that you thought was expensive with an open access service that requires low-cost operation? because it's actually not that expensive?
No direct connection, but a train service calling there would be going to Swindon or beyond, and may also call at Wootton Bassett.What does Corsham have to do with a London-Cardiff direct train?
As has been stated upthread this service probably won't happen just like Ian Yeowart's other 10 blue sky thinking bids for OA rail services that were submitted under at least four different names in recent years
In fair honesty, wasn't Euston to Blackpool conceived first before Virgin Trains started running their own sporadic service there? It was effectively Virgin retaliating quickly using spare resources, their money and power? They had the upper hand especially because it takes a lot of time for an OA service to start up, and Virgin could block any more growth of this OA service by snapping up spare paths they might have otherwise taken for the sake of it. Doesn't Virgin's Blackpool service operate on an Open Access basis (i.e not part of the service level agreement) anyways, but within the West Coast franchise?Whatever happened to open access services being "not primarily abstractive"? Grand Central and Hull Trains meet that criterion, as did the short-lived Wrexham & Shropshire operation. But Kings Cross - Edinburgh, Waterloo - Southampton and Paddington - Cardiff clearly do not, as they are 100% abstractive (OK apart from Severn Tunnel Junction). Nor does Euston - Blackpool now. Do we really want to fill up all the available slots with fast trains which offer nothing new, when on many parts of the network we need better local services (e.g. Newcastle - Berwick - Edinburgh) and more paths for freight? HS2 will free up paths, but not to Cardiff or Southampton, and not in the North-east. These Cardiff trains might be faster but how important is speed on a route with no airline competition?
Very interesting; thank you. Is it the case that this new charge actually makes it easier to pass the NPA test?The “not primarily abstractive” (NPA) test is still there for new applicants but it has never been a straight pass/fail if you do/don’t reach 0.3. The ORR takes in other considerations in making it’s judgement on who gets track access.
Right from the start of it’s operations Hull Trains has consistently said that it would pay a path charge for access and that others should as well. The ORR has historically viewed this as a barrier to entry and anyway NR could not get it’s route costing into such a shape to tell the ORR how much could legally (under the regs) be charged. Until now.
In this control period it has all changed. New OA applicants who want to operate “inter urban” services between stations classified as S1 and S1 or S2 (S1 and S2 = 15m and 10m punters a year respectively) and that are over 40 miles apart have to pay an Infrastructure Cost Charge (ICC) to NR which is set at £4 a train mile, at 2017/8 prices. The ICC is phased in over 5 years. Full details of all this are on the ORR website. There is a link into this in the track access section through the paper on charging, for those of you brave enough to delve into the detail.
The ICC has the effect of lowering the NPA threshold because the value of the ICC is taken off the abstraction value. Here is crude working example.
An operator wants to run 5 return trips a day for 300 days a year between an S1 station and an S2 station. They are 100 miles apart. So at £4 a train mile the ICC is £4K a day, £1.2m a year.
The proposed revenue from this service is £6m, of which £4.8m is abstracted from other operators. So without the ICC the NPA calculation is £1.2m/£4.8m = 0.25. But if you add the ICC into the equation it becomes £1.2m/(£4.8m-£1.2m ICC) = 0.33.
This is what Yeowart has realised.
Source: https://orr.gov.uk/__data/assets/pd...est-request-grand-union-trains-2019-03-27.pdf
Economic Equilibrium Test request from the Department for Transport in regard to the Great Western rail franchise
Thank you for your previous e-mail. I can now provide the information you require. Please treat this e-mail as a formal request for the application of the Economic Equilibrium Test.
The requesting entity is the Department for Transport, in its capacity as franchising authority (competent authority in respect of the terms of the guidance). The Department for Transport’s address is: 33 Horseferry Road London SW1P 4DR
I can confirm that I will be the person responsible for queries. My contact details are as follows: [Redacted]
As per my earlier e-mail, while the information available at this point is clearly only very high-level, it is our strong view that the proposed service would have a significant impact upon the economic equilibrium of one or more of Government’s rail franchises – chiefly upon the Great Western rail franchise. Our grounds for this are set out below, albeit only at a high level for the present time, reflecting the limited detail available on the specifics of the application.
1) The proposed service would only serve stations which are already served by the Great Western franchise. Of the proposed stations, only Severn Tunnel Junction does not, at present, have a direct service to London Paddington. We therefore consider it highly likely that the service will abstract considerable revenue from franchised services on key intercity flows, particularly London-Bristol and London-Cardiff.
2) The proposed service could give rise to significant performance issues on the line, arising not just from capacity constraints, but also from the use of Class 91 locomotives and 9 car sets with relatively poor acceleration characteristics compared to the wider proposed fleet-mix on the line. We consider that any decline in performance on the line as a result of the proposed service could have consequent implications for the revenue and economic stability of franchised services.
We have also, on the basis of the limited information available at present, identified a number of further potential concerns relating to the proposed service. However, we recognise that the current question of whether the Economic Equilibrium Test should be applied to the application represents only the first step in a wider consideration and decision-making process around the application. We believe that the grounds set out above represent sufficient evidence on this particular question and would welcome further engagement with you on this application in due course.
As stated above, our request is made in relation to the Great Western franchise. It is possible there may be further implications for other franchises, but on the basis of the information currently available regarding the proposed service, this is more difficult to identify at present. A copy of the public register copy of the Great Western franchise agreement is attached. Supporting documents relating to service level commitments are available online at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/first-great-western
Department for Transport, 25 April 2019
Source: https://orr.gov.uk/__data/assets/pd...est-request-grand-union-trains-2019-03-27.pdf
Keolis Amey Operations / Gweithrediadau Keolis Amey Limited, in regard to its Grant Agreement with the Welsh Government
This is KA’s response to ORR’s email of 27 March notifying parties of a proposed open access service, Grand Union, that may be subject to the Economic Equilibrium Test (“EET”).
KA requests that ORR carries out the EET on this proposal as we believe that the economic equilibrium of our Public Service Contract with Welsh Government (the Grant Agreement) risks being compromised. There will be operational impacts that have the potential to affect the cost base in accordance with the Grant Agreement. We have set out these concerns in this paper. We can provide the Grant Agreement on request.
Contact details
Keolis Amey Operations / Gweithrediadau Keolis Amey Limited (“KA”). Company number 11389531. [Redacted]
Potential operational impacts
Performance
GWR’s London to Paddington services caused us 891 delay minutes, and 2 cancellations, East of Cardiff last year. Extrapolating from this we can expect an additional 450 Network Rail delay minutes for each additional train per hour, as a
minimum.
We could also see additional performance impacts due to:
• Performance being worse than IET sets
• Additional stop at Severn Tunnel Jn
• Turnaround cleaning at Cardiff Central
• Shunting moves (cannot walk through a Cl.91 or a 10 car IET so need to come into Pt 1,2 or shunt via brickyard)
• Crowding on local services west of Cardiff should heavily discounted tickets encourage passengers to split their journey rather than take GWR service to Swansea
• Interaction with more trains in future timetables which could worsen performance on proposed additional services (see under Timetable below)
• Customer service and operational issues if Journey Planners encourage more passengers to change trains at Severn Tunnel Junction station, which has minimal facilities.
Timetable
A new hourly service will create potential conflicts depending on the exact paths that Grand Union bids for. The key changes to the timetable on the South Wales Main Line (including both committed proposals and aspirations) are listed below.
• Dec 2020
o GWR’s higher frequency London-South Wales service starts in Dec 19 (a 3rd hourly train in the peaks).
• Future
o Ebbw half-hourly (May 2021, to/from Newport)
o Cardiff-Liverpool new service
o New stations between Cardiff and Severn Tunnel Junction (Cardiff East Parkway, Llanwern, Magor etc)
Cardiff Central station working
There will be one additional passenger arrival and one additional passenger departure per hour, with an unknown platform occupation time. This could put platform capacity at risk. It could require additional station staff to dispatch trains.
There may also be additional shunts to/from the Brickyard (as the only electrified turnback facility).
A review of station staffing and overall capacity of Cardiff Central would need to be carried out to identify and mitigate Safety and Performance risks.
Contingency planning
Additional services will require more difficult decisions to be made when Network Rail negotiates contingency arrangements between operators, and also amended timetables in the event of planned disruption. KA could be disadvantaged.
Recovery options for coupling to a Class 91 locomotive might be limited and so could
import risk.
Canton depot
It should be noted that Grand Union would not be able to make use of Canton unless/until Canton is electrified.
Keolis Amey Operations / Gweithrediadau Keolis Amey Limited, 26 April 2019
It also has the backing of the Welsh Government.
Also Keolis Amey Operations have cited their concerns.
In fair honesty, wasn't Euston to Blackpool conceived first before Virgin Trains started running their own sporadic service there? It was effectively Virgin retaliating quickly using spare resources, their money and power? They had the upper hand especially because it takes a lot of time for an OA service to start up, and Virgin could block any more growth of this OA service by snapping up spare paths they might have otherwise taken for the sake of it. Doesn't Virgin's Blackpool service operate on an Open Access basis (i.e not part of the service level agreement) anyways, but within the West Coast franchise?
Alliance's Blackpool service was approved 3 years ago and was supposed to have launched by now. There is still no sign of it happening yet Mr Yeowart has moved onto his next target already- Cardiff under another different name Grand Union
I would suggest that the support from the Welsh Government minster is merely political showboating while Keolis Amey are merely trying to protect their business model and is closer to the business reality of running a train service. After all, what has the minster got to lose by publicly supporting a small plucky small business promising of cheap peak-time seats for everyone vs. the big greedy corporate GWR who charge a less well-off people a fortune merely so they can make millions of pounds everyday to all go their their nasty rich shareholders.So the train operator operating services on behalf of the Welsh Government has concerns about potential new services that have the support of the Welsh Government!
GWR's proposed December timetable leads you to that conclusion does it? Bare bones?The reason GWR don't want the competition is because they would be forced to up their game instead of what is becoming endemic in the UK rail system - corporate groups providing a bare-bones, as basic as is legally possible service in order to maximise their returns.
GWR's proposed December timetable leads you to that conclusion does it? Bare bones?
I fear you've taken my comments in a sense of the rail timetable, in which I wasn't commenting. My view here is of the corporate modus operandi in which GWR are and have been cutting out any costs they can in order to maximise returns, often to the detriment of the services they operate. An example of this on GWR is the RMT's long-standing campaign to "Bring Back the Buffet".
So, Bare Bones, yes. In relation to areas of customer service that is exactly what is happening.
Ah, I see. Could other examples perhaps be cited, as I don't find this one, on its own, very convincing.I fear you've taken my comments in a sense of the rail timetable, in which I wasn't commenting. My view here is of the corporate modus operandi in which GWR are and have been cutting out any costs they can in order to maximise returns, often to the detriment of the services they operate. An example of this on GWR is the RMT's long-standing campaign to "Bring Back the Buffet".
So, Bare Bones, yes. In relation to areas of customer service that is exactly what is happening.
Another thing I’ve just noticed again, is that the GU application (in post #1) is not actually a fully detailed track access application, it’s more of a “heads up” on this new “form OA” with only 2 pages, rather than the more typical “form P” with which track access applications are normally made...
So perhaps this sort of application is less worthy of the usual headlines anyway...
And the removal of the buffet was a DfT decision, was it not?
GWR currently has 34 direct trains Cardiff to London, with a journey time around 2hr6mins.
Thank you very much for this clear description of the current position. Out of personal interest I had been following developments in the past but rather lost track of the details two or three years ago.The “not primarily abstractive” (NPA) test is still there for new applicants but it has never been a straight pass/fail if you do/don’t reach 0.3. The ORR takes in other considerations in making it’s judgement on who gets track access.
Right from the start of it’s operations Hull Trains has consistently said that it would pay a path charge for access and that others should as well. The ORR has historically viewed this as a barrier to entry and anyway NR could not get it’s route costing into such a shape to tell the ORR how much could legally (under the regs) be charged. Until now.
In this control period it has all changed. New OA applicants who want to operate “inter urban” services between stations classified as S1 and S1 or S2 (S1 and S2 = 15m and 10m punters a year respectively) and that are over 40 miles apart have to pay an Infrastructure Cost Charge (ICC) to NR which is set at £4 a train mile, at 2017/8 prices. The ICC is phased in over 5 years. Full details of all this are on the ORR website. There is a link into this in the track access section through the paper on charging, for those of you brave enough to delve into the detail.
The ICC has the effect of lowering the NPA threshold because the value of the ICC is taken off the abstraction value. Here is crude working example.
An operator wants to run 5 return trips a day for 300 days a year between an S1 station and an S2 station. They are 100 miles apart. So at £4 a train mile the ICC is £4K a day, £1.2m a year.
The proposed revenue from this service is £6m, of which £4.8m is abstracted from other operators. So without the ICC the NPA calculation is £1.2m/£4.8m = 0.25. But if you add the ICC into the equation it becomes £1.2m/(£4.8m-£1.2m ICC) = 0.33.
This is what Yeowart has realised.