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WCML InterCity Franchise

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EE Andy b1

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How do you achieve the objective of the WCP franchise competition (DfT announcement when the competition started):


by taking the franchise in-house?

The WCML is one thing, but HS2 is not in NR ownership and is not part of the Williams review.
The government intended to sell the commercial rights to run trains on HS2 to the private sector, like it has done on HS1.

Probably the wrong emoji after "in house". :lol:

I don't think the WCP is much of a competition anymore, if ever it was, as the government wanted new money brought into our railways (HS2) and other projects, and China seem to be the ones with money to spend.
I believe China also wanted to build there own trains for HS2 without going out to tender!

HS2 may not be part of the Williams review like the West Coast is like you say but for the initial 5-7 years or so they will be run together by the same operator. Apart from releasing paths on the WCML in the future, which is greatly needed for slower passenger trains, with more stopping patterns and for freight and maybe the change of lease of certain types of rollingstock to other TOCs, i can't see much else happening on the West Coast South of Lichfield. Yes a new Intercity WC operator but that's years away when the WCP is eventually split.

I was just thinking back to the East Coast franchise before Stagecoach/Virgin had it for a while, how well it seemed to be run under direct control.

There is plenty to happen but not until a decision is made by the Dft, obviously and nobody knows for sure when that will be now!!:rolleyes:
 
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Glenn1969

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I think the 20th as a possibility for an announcement like this went as soon as May resigned because at the moment she is a lame duck PM until the end of the leadership contest

Maybe July or will it have to wait until September?
 

pt_mad

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Would the bids have included financial calculations, premiums, subsidies and committments relating directly to the first years of HS2 operation? If so how can it even be remotely possible to award a franchise (IF) any of the sums rely on HS2 actually going ahead when the future PM candidates have not indicated for sure HS2 will continue to go ahead? We had Dominic Raab saying it would have to be looked at again, granted he's eliminated but the principal remains, without an ultra certain committment to HS2 how can a franchise bid based on it going ahead for certain be awarded?
 

Japan0913

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Wouldn't it be better to separate the HS2 from the franchise and operate it as a project directly controlled by the government?
 

LNW-GW Joint

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Would the bids have included financial calculations, premiums, subsidies and committments relating directly to the first years of HS2 operation? If so how can it even be remotely possible to award a franchise (IF) any of the sums rely on HS2 actually going ahead when the future PM candidates have not indicated for sure HS2 will continue to go ahead? We had Dominic Raab saying it would have to be looked at again, granted he's eliminated but the principal remains, without an ultra certain committment to HS2 how can a franchise bid based on it going ahead for certain be awarded?

The HS2 elements of the bid were not going to be binding.
Only the phase which involves the classic WCML (up to 2026) were going to be in the contracted financials.
The rest was visionary really, and would be reviewed when HS2 came into existence.
But it did give the WCP franchisee negotiating rights with HS2 Ltd and Network Rail post 2026.
The aim of the HS2 element was to plan service introduction of high speed services and integration with the classic services.
 

hwl

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Graylings Departure is probably very likely but not certain. A cabinet reshuffle will happen after the next PM is announced and takes office. Though I think the WC Franchise should be delayed until after the Williams Review

Grayling is with Team Boris
The government has a working majority of 2 so Boris may struggle to win a confidence vote and become PM as May can only resign when the house has confidence in her successor.
Hence Grayling could be arround for a while...
 

3141

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The government has a working majority of 2 so Boris may struggle to win a confidence vote and become PM as May can only resign when the house has confidence in her successor.
Hence Grayling could be arround for a while...

I suppose that in practice May can resign whenever she chooses, and it would be difficult to remain Prime Minster once the Conservative Party has chosen a new leader. It's then up to the new leader to form a government. The Labour Party might propose a motion of no confidence, either then or soon after 31 October. But as you say, these things could mean that Grayling and some other ministers remain in post for a while longer.
 

krus_aragon

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The government has a working majority of 2 so Boris may struggle to win a confidence vote and become PM as May can only resign when the house has confidence in her successor.
Are you sure that's the case? While there's a duty on a Prime Minister "to ensure that the Monarch is not without an advisor, and therefore to remain in office until the identity of his successor is clear" (ref.) the successor would clearly be the new leader of the Conservative party.

I don't think there's a way for Parliament to indicate it has no confidence in a potential successor as Prime Minister, it can only approve or disapprove of the Prime Minister and Government in front of it. So I think it'd be a case of May resigning, advising to the Queen that Johnson/Hunt should be their successor, and if Parliament then passes a vote of no confidence, then Johnson/Hunt is left hovering in No. 10 until a new Government is formed, or a General Election called. (That's the role that Brown played in 2010 after the election.)

Grayling and other ministers could still be in place for a while while that all happened, though.
 

hwl

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Are you sure that's the case? While there's a duty on a Prime Minister "to ensure that the Monarch is not without an advisor, and therefore to remain in office until the identity of his successor is clear" (ref.) the successor would clearly be the new leader of the Conservative party.

I don't think there's a way for Parliament to indicate it has no confidence in a potential successor as Prime Minister, it can only approve or disapprove of the Prime Minister and Government in front of it. So I think it'd be a case of May resigning, advising to the Queen that Johnson/Hunt should be their successor, and if Parliament then passes a vote of no confidence, then Johnson/Hunt is left hovering in No. 10 until a new Government is formed, or a General Election called. (That's the role that Brown played in 2010 after the election.)

Grayling and other ministers could still be in place for a while while that all happened, though.
The new PM has to be capable of forming a new government, the original DUP deal was for 2 years so the new leader will have to cut deal (£££ and conditions galore!) there immediately as even DUP abstention would be game over. Labour SNP LD TIG and Greens will go for confidence vote before the summer recess. Even with 2 disaffected Tories it could be game over even with the DUP being helpful. The outgoing PM has to be honest with HM.

Hence I can see Grayling being around for while longer till a new government can be formed.
 

pt_mad

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The HS2 elements of the bid were not going to be binding.
Only the phase which involves the classic WCML (up to 2026) were going to be in the contracted financials.
The rest was visionary really, and would be reviewed when HS2 came into existence.
But it did give the WCP franchisee negotiating rights with HS2 Ltd and Network Rail post 2026.
The aim of the HS2 element was to plan service introduction of high speed services and integration with the classic services.
Great information thanks for that. Do you personally think the lack of certain and firm commitment to HS2 from the potential leaders will be a reason for the delay in awarding the West Coast franchise? Or maybe for another reason or reasons?
 

LNW-GW Joint

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Great information thanks for that. Do you personally think the lack of certain and firm commitment to HS2 from the potential leaders will be a reason for the delay in awarding the West Coast franchise? Or maybe for another reason or reasons?

Like everything else, it's been caught up in the Brexit malaise in parliament.
The government won't want another rail controversy on its hands until there's a new cabinet in place and some clarity on HS2's future.
They can't really detach the WCML from the WCP bid because the high-speed bidders will have spent a lot of money on the HS2 elements.
There's also the separate rolling stock procurement in progress which will also be in trouble if HS2 has a wobble.
It's looking like October before a coherent government can take meaningful decisions of any scale.
I think we can be fairly sure life will be different under Boris, with potentially a new Chancellor and maybe a new Transport SoS.
Also by then, the Williams Review will be close to publication, whatever that means for major projects.
Plenty of reasons for delay, and no real issues if VT carry on for another spell.
The easy solution, if Virgin/Stagecoach/SNCF had won, and so give a smooth transition to WCP, is out of the window with their disqualification, and their legal action is yet another reason for caution and delay until it is resolved.
 

Japan0913

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FirstGroup set to win West Coast main line franchise - if it can avert boardroom coup

22 JUNE 2019 Telegraph Media
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/busines...win-west-coast-main-line-franchise-can-avert/

Multiple industry sources have told The Telegraph that FirstGroup’s bid, made in conjunction with Italian transport giant Trenitalia, will be awarded the London to Glasgow line.
Firstgroup is poised to win Britain’s most profitable train franchise if a boardroom coup by its largest investor can be averted this week.

Transport Secretary Chris Grayling will wait until the results of a key vote on Tuesday are known before handing the keys to the West Coast main line to the troubled rail and bus group.

The London to Glasgow line has netted a joint venture between Sir Richard Branson’s Virgin Trains and Stagecoach tens of millions of pounds since they won the franchise in 1997.

Wall Street hedge fund Coast Capital Management last month launched a campaign to oust half FirstGroup’s board, carve the business in two and jettison rail operations. The overhaul will be put to the...

(Here are the paid articles:)
FirstGroup rail bosses in line to hit buffers as largest shareholder denounces 'sheer folly' of executives
James Rasteh at Coast Capital complained of the 'arrogance' of the chairman
He said the board's management of the business has been 'shocking'
Property tycoon Robert Tchenguiz is also backing a shake-up of the firm.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money.../FirstGroup-rail-bosses-line-hit-buffers.html


Hedge fund raider Coast Capital threatens to sue FirstGroup.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/...capital-threatens-to-sue-firstgroup-njjzl2h8t


Such an article is flooded, will it be announced officially on the 25th or 26th?
 
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FirstGroup set to win West Coast main line franchise - if it can avert boardroom coup

22 JUNE 2019 Telegraph Media
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/busines...win-west-coast-main-line-franchise-can-avert/

Multiple industry sources have told The Telegraph that FirstGroup’s bid, made in conjunction with Italian transport giant Trenitalia, will be awarded the London to Glasgow line.

FirstGroup rail bosses in line to hit buffers as largest shareholder denounces 'sheer folly' of executives
James Rasteh at Coast Capital complained of the 'arrogance' of the chairman
He said the board's management of the business has been 'shocking'
Property tycoon Robert Tchenguiz is also backing a shake-up of the firm.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money.../FirstGroup-rail-bosses-line-hit-buffers.html


Hedge fund raider Coast Capital threatens to sue FirstGroup.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/...capital-threatens-to-sue-firstgroup-njjzl2h8t


Such an article is flooded, will it be announced officially on the 25th or 26th?

It seems like 2012 all over again with the DfT clearly blinded by the numbers, but with the same company in one hell of a hole! A disaster awaits.
 
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Virgin have operated the line for 22 years and that has literally flown by. I'll stick my neck out and suggest at least for the last 10 there hasn't been anything particularly Virgin about it. The set up just does its job day to day so I doubt much will change though I bet some passengers will still refer to it as Virgin for years to come !
 

Agent_Squash

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Virgin have operated the line for 22 years and that has literally flown by. I'll stick my neck out and suggest at least for the last 10 there hasn't been anything particularly Virgin about it. The set up just does its job day to day so I doubt much will change though I bet some passengers will still refer to it as Virgin for years to come !

And there you’ve just described the problem with continuous franchise extensions.
 
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Here's the full article, making it very likely First will hold off Coast Capital's advances and will thus win.

Firstgroup is poised to win Britain’s most profitable train franchise if a boardroom coup by its largest investor can be averted this week.

Transport Secretary Chris Grayling will wait until the results of a key vote on Tuesday are known before handing the keys to the West Coast main line to the troubled rail and bus group.

The London to Glasgow line has netted a joint venture between Sir Richard Branson’s Virgin Trains and Stagecoach tens of millions of pounds since they won the franchise in 1997.

Wall Street hedge fund Coast Capital Management last month launched a campaign to oust half FirstGroup’s board, carve the business in two and jettison rail operations. The overhaul will be put to the ballot on Tuesday, with indications this weekend that it will go down to the wire.

Senior insiders said that votes filed in advance of the meeting suggested roughly two-thirds of shareholders are backing FirstGroup and rejecting Coast’s appointees. But such votes only represent 60pc of the ballot.

Separate sources said that a number of FirstGroup’s biggest shareholders have yet to finalise voting decisions. Due to the concentration of voting power among small number of investors, the vote could easily swing in Coast’s favour.

The battle to win the prized West Coast rail line, parts of which are scheduled to carry HS2 trains, is one of a string of legal spats between Mr Grayling and rail operators. A bid by Virgin, Stagecoach and France’s state operator SNCF was thrown out by the officials after being deemed “non-compliant”.

Multiple industry sources have told The Telegraph that FirstGroup’s bid, made in conjunction with Italian transport giant Trenitalia, will be awarded the London to Glasgow line. It is battling with a consortium led by Hong Kong underground operator MTR and Chinese state company Guangshen Railway Company, the only other remaining bidder.

Civil servants have advised Mr Grayling that FirstGroup is their “preferred option”, one senior insider said and FirstGroup is the only party to have been brought into the final round talks to iron out finer franchise details. A separate source said that FirstGroup had already engaged headhunters to fill top director positions to run the franchise.

But Whitehall officials have been spooked by the prospect of FirstGroup losing the shareholder vote, which would likely result in the company reneging on its bid and handing the train network into the hands of the Chinese. Industry sources said this could force Mr Grayling into an embarrassing U-turn to restart the bid from scratch.

Such a scenario would represent a new low for the under-fire minister.He is facing four separate legal challenges over the Government’s decision to kick bidders out. Parties are seeking tens of millions of pounds in damages from the taxpayer in compensation for lost bidding costs.

Earlier this year, the Department for Transport paid £33m to settle a case brought by Eurotunnel after it handed a contract to run ferries in the event of a no-deal Brexit. P&O has launched its own action and is seeking a similar amount in compensation.

 

Jorge Da Silva

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Here's the full article, making it very likely First will hold off Coast Capital's advances and will thus win.

This part sounds familiar :lol::

But Whitehall officials have been spooked by the prospect of FirstGroup losing the shareholder vote, which would likely result in the company reneging on its bid and handing the train network into the hands of the Chinese. Industry sources said this could force Mr Grayling into an embarrassing U-turn to restart the bid from scratch.
 

Glenn1969

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Given that Boris is muttering about December being a good time to review HS2 I think the last thing we need is a restarted competition that might take the award beyond then and leave that element open to cancellation
 

Jorge Da Silva

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EE Andy b1

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No I told.you it will be....

LMNWWS

London Midland North West Wales & Scottish :lol::lol::lol:
 

The Planner

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Given that Boris is muttering about December being a good time to review HS2 I think the last thing we need is a restarted competition that might take the award beyond then and leave that element open to cancellation
He needs to make a decision earlier than that as notice to proceed is December, he needs to make it by November really. Noticed that Jeremy Hunt would push on with it whilst Boris said he would review it.
 

Bletchleyite

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He needs to make a decision earlier than that as notice to proceed is December, he needs to make it by November really. Noticed that Jeremy Hunt would push on with it whilst Boris said he would review it.

With recent controversies Hunt is becoming more popular - perhaps he has a decent chance. Reading policies he certainly seems to have (as you might expect) the most sensible, moderate approach of the two.
 

pt_mad

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I don't think you've taken that to its logical conclusion.

I put forward the London Midland Northampton Oxenholme Preston Quintinshill Railway System instead. :D
LMSWWBIBHS2O surely? (London Midland Scottish Wales Welsh Borders Irish Boattrains and High Speed 2 Operations).
 
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