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Stagecoach to pull out of UK Franchising

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coppercapped

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Alongside there preliminary results released this morning, they that stated it’s the end of the line for there rail division.
Hyperbole! That is not what is written in the press release.

It clearly states
no plans to bid for new UK rail franchises on current risk profile
which is NOT the same thing as saying its the end of the line for its rail division.
The statement allows for Stagecoach to bid if the risk profile is changed.
 

edwin_m

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The Williams review is likely to come out before any further franchises are let, with the exception of SouthEastern and perhaps West Coast which are already in the bidding process. It remains to be seen what it will say, whether whoever is in government by then will accept it, and whether they will have the time and inclination to implement it. So it's unlikely that any company will definitively rule itself in or out of bidding for franchises or whatever replaces them.
 

talltim

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I suspect tho, if they have no current plans for bidding in the future, they will get rid of their bidding team. Although they could reconstitute it in the future, it’s another barrier to bidding again
 

StaffsWCML

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The franchising system as it is, is absolute rubbish. Grayling and the DfT are delivering nothing for passengers except turgid mediocracy at best in terms of the awful trains they procure and the awful providers they allow to run our network. It needs to stop.

The only people willing to take the risks are the companies run by incompetent idiots, who strangely are likely to be as useless at service delivery as they are! Who'd have thought it?!

I presume if they decide to go for some of the open access stuff with Virgin that they may exist in some form in years to come.
 

DarloRich

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which is NOT the same thing as saying its the end of the line for its rail division.
The statement allows for Stagecoach to bid if the risk profile is changed.

Indeed. They are clearly not happy with the risk profile at present, If that changes.............
 

diffident

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I presume if they decide to go for some of the open access stuff with Virgin that they may exist in some form in years to come.

That could turn out to be an interesting point. There is a very real possibility that Stagecoach are positioning themselves along with Virgin to operate UK Rail completely outside of the scope of franchising??

Certainly interesting food for thought there, and if it is the case, would present a serious challenge to the DfT and the privatised industry as a whole.

I would definitely result in some high profile, high stakes and high cost court cases, that's for sure.
 

E-Rail

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That could turn out to be an interesting point. There is a very real possibility that Stagecoach are positioning themselves along with Virgin to operate UK Rail completely outside of the scope of franchising??

Certainly interesting food for thought there, and if it is the case, would present a serious challenge to the DfT and the privatised industry as a whole.

I would definitely result in some high profile, high stakes and high cost court cases, that's for sure.


I would be dumbstruck if Stagecoach and Virgin didn't make a move on Grand Central once the sale of Arriva is complete, if they haven't already entered discussions with the bidders.

Not beyond the realms of possibility that they may table an offer for First's OA ops.

5 high profile IC routes suits their desired operation profile perfectly.
 
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StaffsWCML

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Would make sense. The system really needs to be challenged as it isn't offering the best for rail users.

We are now basically being giving a list of appalling loss making providers who are happy to risk their business to win a franchise, not really great for the consumer.
 

pdeaves

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It sounds very like FirstGroup's statement, effectively 'we might bid again if the conditions suit us'. Presumably the big groups trying, so some extent, to force government's hand.
 

WatcherZero

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I suspect tho, if they have no current plans for bidding in the future, they will get rid of their bidding team. Although they could reconstitute it in the future, it’s another barrier to bidding again

They already have, returned the capital from the rail division to shareholders only a couple of weeks after the Dft ban.
 

GrimShady

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Nationalisation 8-)

I'll be glad to see all the garbage private companies go.
 

Pumbaa

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They already have, returned the capital from the rail division to shareholders only a couple of weeks after the Dft ban.

Correct. Skeleton team left to wind down the remaining operations, probably all gone by the end of the year.
 

3141

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That could turn out to be an interesting point. There is a very real possibility that Stagecoach are positioning themselves along with Virgin to operate UK Rail completely outside of the scope of franchising??

Certainly interesting food for thought there, and if it is the case, would present a serious challenge to the DfT and the privatised industry as a whole.

I would definitely result in some high profile, high stakes and high cost court cases, that's for sure.

After GNER lost a court case relating to Grand Central, in about 2006, the then Rail Regulator, Tom Winsor, wrote an article which claimed that it was not necessary to hold a franchise in order to run an passenger rail service. Theoretically, that's true, but there are not many routes on which it is likely to be profitable to run an Open Access service, and you have to satisfy the ORR that your proposals are not primarily abstractive of existing franchised operators' revenue, which further limits the opportunities. Finding available paths is another difficulty. So I don't suppose Stagecoach or Virgin or anybody else is going to find enough openings to make much of an impact on the franchised system.

However, if the Williams review proposes major changes to the franchise system, there possibly may be new opportunities for Virgin and others to get back in to passenger services.
 

route:oxford

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After GNER lost a court case relating to Grand Central, in about 2006, the then Rail Regulator, Tom Winsor, wrote an article which claimed that it was not necessary to hold a franchise in order to run an passenger rail service. Theoretically, that's true, but there are not many routes on which it is likely to be profitable to run an Open Access service, and you have to satisfy the ORR that your proposals are not primarily abstractive of existing franchised operators' revenue, which further limits the opportunities. Finding available paths is another difficulty.

It's not just theoretically true, it's factually true.

Stagecoach were the first Open Access operator when they hooked a couple of their own carriages to the overnight sleeper and sold tickets for those carriages themselves. No extra paths required, no separate locomotive required, no franchise.

There is absolutely no technical reason why they couldn't, for example, refurbish a half a dozen Mk3 coaches and pay Scotrail to add one to 6 7-City sets and haul them around as "Scottish Megatrain" coaches.

Likewise. If Stagecoach were to lease a 5-car IEP unit and run it from Perth via Stirling to Edinburgh at 7am, then hook it up to the back of a 5-car LNER service on the way to London. It's only one path leaving Edinburgh and one driver.

Obviously it takes "two to tango", but at the back of my mind I'm wondering if ancient legislation compels a rail operator to interline goods wagons and passenger vehicles...
 

GrimShady

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LNER have been quietly axing ICEC services since they've taken over from VTEC. Food for thought.

Maybe so, probably because they can't make the line pay. Let's not forget it's still the same Virgin tainted people left running it. East Coast were doing fine.
 

hwl

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Maybe so, probably because they can't make the line pay. Let's not forget it's still the same Virgin tainted people left running it. East Coast were doing fine.
I though it was because the stock reliability wasn't as good as VTEC assumed when planning?
 

whhistle

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It sounds very like FirstGroup's statement, effectively 'we might bid again if the conditions suit us'. Presumably the big groups trying, so some extent, to force government's hand.
Didn't Arriva say this too?

That's three big players, but I wonder if it's a "who blinks first" situation.
The Government could will probably ignore half of the Williams report, so if nothing massive changes, perhaps First / Arriva / Stagecoach will back down on their views.

I suspect nationalisation will come before then.
 

ainsworth74

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LNER have been quietly axing ICEC services since they've taken over from VTEC. Food for thought.

LNER of course removed these services to ensure that they could deliver the timetable reliably as it transpired that flogging a thirty+ year old fleet harder than it ever had been before was extremely detrimental to reliability. Plus the Stirling service that was removed is now back in the timetable and I believe all the Leeds services that were removed are due for reintroduction from September this year.

Maybe so, probably because they can't make the line pay. Let's not forget it's still the same Virgin tainted people left running it. East Coast were doing fine.

Let's be clear. The ICEC franchise is and always has been profitible. It was profitable when NXEC were running it and it was also profitable when VTEC were running it. What keeps going wrong is that the level of profit required in order to make the expected premium payments that the DfT sign off on with the operator is in excess of what the franchise can generate. But before you take off the premium payment the ICEC franchise makes money.
 

tbtc

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Let's be clear. The ICEC franchise is and always has been profitible. It was profitable when NXEC were running it and it was also profitable when VTEC were running it. What keeps going wrong is that the level of profit required in order to make the expected premium payments that the DfT sign off on with the operator is in excess of what the franchise can generate. But before you take off the premium payment the ICEC franchise makes money.

This really needs repeating.

The amount of people who defined NXEC/ VTEC as "failing" whilst lionising EC because "they made a profit" (which ignores the fact that NXEC/ VTEC had premium commitments to make, whilst EC were just plodding on without the same targets - anyone could run the ECML "profitably"; the question is *how* profitably.

Similarly, no public/private sector franchise will be able to run a basket case franchise like Northern or Wales & Borders "profitably" - the question is who can do it for the least subsidy.
 

pt_mad

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Who is it who forms Virgin's Open Access application for Liverpool WCML services then? Are Stagecoach not involved in that?
 

HH

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Maybe so, probably because they can't make the line pay. Let's not forget it's still the same Virgin tainted people left running it. East Coast were doing fine.
Or it's still the same East Coast tainted people running it. Virgin just overbid.
 

Edders23

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Indeed. They are clearly not happy with the risk profile at present, If that changes.............


yeah that'll change in the current climate :rolleyes::lol:


seriously though I think many of these companies are finding profit margins are wafer thin on rail franchises and are being encouraged by their shareholders to withdraw from the markets until UK gov decides to up the subsidy/decrease franchise payments the same as they are doing with bus routes

In other words either UK gov has to pump a few more billions of tax payers money into public transport or accept that these companies won't provide public transport
 
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krus_aragon

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Similarly, no public/private sector franchise will be able to run a basket case franchise like Northern or Wales & Borders "profitably" - the question is who can do it for the least subsidy.
Or, alternatively, who can give most social benefit for a limited pot of money (which, I believe was part of the strategy with the TfW tender).
 

ainsworth74

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Who is it who forms Virgin's Open Access application for Liverpool WCML services then? Are Stagecoach not involved in that?
Stagecoach are involved. It's Stagecoach, Virgin, Alstom and SNCF in the open access operation. Note that this announcement discussed in this thread relates to franchised operations and open access by definition isn't part of franchising ;)
 

coppercapped

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This really needs repeating.

The amount of people who defined NXEC/ VTEC as "failing" whilst lionising EC because "they made a profit" (which ignores the fact that NXEC/ VTEC had premium commitments to make, whilst EC were just plodding on without the same targets - anyone could run the ECML "profitably"; the question is *how* profitably.

Similarly, no public/private sector franchise will be able to run a basket case franchise like Northern or Wales & Borders "profitably" - the question is who can do it for the least subsidy.
I agree with your summary - it needs repeating endlessly so that it is very well understood.

Where to next? The issue is now that the DfT has painted itself into a corner - it was using the premium payments as part of its income and has now killed the goose that laid the golden eggs. The Williams review offers an obvious fig leaf for a change of course, but I can't see any company wanting to run a franchise until the framework within which a TOC has to function are clarified. As I see it the major issues are, in no particular order:
  • how is the pensions deficit to be dealt with? There is a very poignant letter in this months Modern Railways (July) which made me furious at the writer's treatment
  • the DfT (or whatever body takes over the franchising award and supervision role) has to cease making detailed requirements for train services up to seven or more years away. Things change - and if they do great quantities of time are spent in renegotiating contract terms. Such negotiations are pointless and entirely unnecessary; they only exist because of the poisonous legacy of Richard Bowker's time at the Strategic Rail Authority
  • Laying down an expected, but fixed, premium (or subsidy) profile going out for seven or more years is a nonsense. No privately run company - whether it is Acme Painters from down the road or Siemens - would commit to a defined dividend payout for the next seven years. That way lies bankruptcy. A flexible alternative could be to require a premium as a percentage of some figure of merit: profit before tax or percentage of turnover or whatever
  • The DfT should do what Ministries are best at - setting the overall legal, financial, social and environmental framework within which the industry has to operate
  • One has to expect that train services can be thinned out if necessary - as used to happen every time there was a recession under BR.
  • The lead time for infrastructure changes has to be reduced so TOCs can quickly adapt to changes in passenger and freight flows. (In fairness the recent changes in NR may well make this possible)
  • The DfT should not ever again get involved in the specification and/or purchase of rolling stock.
  • If TOCs have had their day, what will replace them?
I think that's enough to be getting on with!
 

WatcherZero

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Virgin-Stagecoach partnership have apparently just got back from a visit to Spain and are seriously considering bidding for the launch of high speed franchised rail services in the country in 2020. The liberalisation of the Spanish Market may be why Renfe applied to become a UK franchise bidder in 2018.
 
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