I'll post this in three sections. It does not go into unit length details, but I suspect that won't really matter.
Section 1: Background Info:
It's reported that Scotrail are planning on getting rid of
only 5 of their 170s.
Abellio have said EMR will end up with THREE types of train by 2022(ish!) - 360s, new bi-mode, (heavily presumed, but not absolutely confirmed (?)) 170s.
This means getting the 769s, 171s, 185s - not going to happen.
Difficult to understand as Wikipedia isn't entirely clear but:
- A Class 158 has up to 207 seats per train.
A Class 170 has up to 200 per train.
This means a 158 has more seats than a 170.
- Abellio have said 153 operation will end within 6 months of August.
- The DfT has said the Norwich - Liverpool could split, but they have not said when or how it will happen. At the moment, Abellio will be running the route as normal.
Section 2: Units that operators have, that will have no home soon:
East Midlands have 62 sprinter units that need replacing.
Stock replacement plans mean that:
- West Midlands will provide 23 Class 170s spare units.
- Scotrail will provide 5 Class 170s spare units.
- Greater Anglia will provide 9 Class 156 spare units.
Section 3: A Credible Plan:
Total Number of 170s from WMT + Scotrail: 28.
Total Number of 170s now required for EMR: 34.
Taking the (21x)153s out of the equation means EMR has 41 sprinters.
Add the Anglia 156s (which could help cover the quick 153 replacement) gives a total of 50 sprinter units at EMR.
- Send ALL those sprinters to Scotrail to swap with the 34 Class 170s.
This is an exact number match for what EMR needs.
- Scotrail gets 16 extra sprinter units
Can be used to strengthen/lengthen services.
- This involves Abellio companies only
May make things easier / quicker.
- However, it means a potential downgrade of the Norwich - Liverpool service
If that is formed of 4 coaches (less seats), but could be mitigated by keeping the 158s on that service for as long as possible.
Cross Country aren't going to give their 170s up without a replacement that can run to Stansted.
Someone suggested Class 175s but I can't see XC taking on a fleet of questionable reliablity units that don't offer much of an upgrade to their current trains.
Transport for Wales have already put dibbs on the Greater Anglia 170s.
Northern aren't going to give their 170s up, although perhaps they should, eventually after ordering more 195s.
Not sure where the idea of getting 171s has come from?
Can anyone point me to where Southern have said they're looking to get rid of them?
The gaping hole is obviously the 21 x 153 units EMR currently has and how they plan to replace all those. But I wonder if EMR would be keen to split the Norwich route but keep all the stock it currently has for it. Half a route but all the stock means they'd have extra to cover for binning off the 153s.
Unless someone else can think of a way of getting enough 170s to EMR without including options that aren't likely, this is the strongest option that I can see so far.