grumpyoldman01
Member
Some interesting ideas!
However, we must remember that when Abellio submitted its winning bid, its train service proposals would have required Network Rail underwriting, and they would also have to had shown that the rolling stock plan was achieveable; therefore, if they have proposed to take 171s presently used by Southern and change them to 170s, they would have had to show what could replace them.
We should remember that Southern is a management contract rather than conventional TOC, and therefore Abellio might have been able to "con" the DfT into going for replacing 171s with dual-voltage high-speed bi-modes; only track alterations at Ashford would then be needed to operate through trains between Hastings and London via HS1, and third-rail could be used elsewhere.
This might sound a bit far-fetched, but remember that - with our 5-year parliamentary cycles - 2022 is general election year as well as the one in which Abellio gets its regional fleet "sorted", and the introduction of new, eco-friendly bi-mode trains (something like 395s in concept) would go well with the Conservative voters served by Southern's 171s. Moreover, Amber Rudd is the Hastings MP, and she would probably support such a change as she had a very small majority in the 2017 election.
This would be "easier" than swopping 158s with ScotRail for its 170s; although this might seem sensible, we have to remember that the Scottish government would have to be involved as well as the DfT. And proposals to transfer the ex-Anglia 170s from Wales to the East Midlands would also require the consent of the Welsh Assembly government; therefore, I believe that this is also very unlikely.
I believe, therefore, that - of the suggestions put forward so far - Turbostars which become surplus when new Civitys are delivered to the West Midlands seem to be the only realistic option if EMR is to have complete fleet replacement with existing trains which meet the description comprised in the DfT information published thus far, the only fear being that there will be insufficient to meet the train service plans and frequencies declared to press and public.
However, we must remember that when Abellio submitted its winning bid, its train service proposals would have required Network Rail underwriting, and they would also have to had shown that the rolling stock plan was achieveable; therefore, if they have proposed to take 171s presently used by Southern and change them to 170s, they would have had to show what could replace them.
We should remember that Southern is a management contract rather than conventional TOC, and therefore Abellio might have been able to "con" the DfT into going for replacing 171s with dual-voltage high-speed bi-modes; only track alterations at Ashford would then be needed to operate through trains between Hastings and London via HS1, and third-rail could be used elsewhere.
This might sound a bit far-fetched, but remember that - with our 5-year parliamentary cycles - 2022 is general election year as well as the one in which Abellio gets its regional fleet "sorted", and the introduction of new, eco-friendly bi-mode trains (something like 395s in concept) would go well with the Conservative voters served by Southern's 171s. Moreover, Amber Rudd is the Hastings MP, and she would probably support such a change as she had a very small majority in the 2017 election.
This would be "easier" than swopping 158s with ScotRail for its 170s; although this might seem sensible, we have to remember that the Scottish government would have to be involved as well as the DfT. And proposals to transfer the ex-Anglia 170s from Wales to the East Midlands would also require the consent of the Welsh Assembly government; therefore, I believe that this is also very unlikely.
I believe, therefore, that - of the suggestions put forward so far - Turbostars which become surplus when new Civitys are delivered to the West Midlands seem to be the only realistic option if EMR is to have complete fleet replacement with existing trains which meet the description comprised in the DfT information published thus far, the only fear being that there will be insufficient to meet the train service plans and frequencies declared to press and public.
