Grand Union Trains Plans to run from London to Cardiff - Now rejected by ORR

tiptoptaff · 20 Jul 2019

stj said:
The latest from the BBC sounds like it is a done deal from 2021, every 2 hrs to start with.WAG will be
keen to get it off the ground as it will "tick a box" in the alternatives to the cancelled M4 round Newport.
Maybe they will be contributing for new 800s.

The TfW franchise letting showed the WAG do not understand the way franchising works, let alone open access. Neither does the local press it seems. It's far from a done deal. It's still obviously primarily abstractive, and that's before you consider the current inability to use 91s as the Severn Tunnel electrification solution currently seems to be IETs on diesel

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route:oxford · 20 Jul 2019

tiptoptaff said:
The TfW franchise letting showed the WAG do not understand the way franchising works, let alone open access. Neither does the local press it seems. It's far from a done deal. It's still obviously primarily abstractive, and that's before you consider the current inability to use 91s as the Severn Tunnel electrification solution currently seems to be IETs on diesel

Why should TfW have any concerns whatsoever about so-called revenue abstraction in England?

Haven't Network Rail committed to electrifiying the Severn Tunnel?

pt_mad · 20 Jul 2019

tiptoptaff said:
It's far from a done deal. It's still obviously primarily abstractive,

Certainly seems like it would be doesn't it? Unless it's allowed to build an open access case based on the numbers and footfalls when the full 2023 service is in place, calling at the extra stations, with the initial pattern viewed only as a temporary measure to get them going?

pt_mad · 20 Jul 2019

route:oxford said:
Haven't Network Rail committed to electrifiying the Severn Tunnel?

Indeed. Surely it's teething problems and will be rectified sometime during the short term future.

swt_passenger · 20 Jul 2019

hexagon789 said:
Are they planning on purchasing new bi-modes for the extensions to Llanelli, and then withdrawing the IC225s?

That’s exactly what the revised application to ORR says. (Post #121)

tiptoptaff · 20 Jul 2019

route:oxford said:
Why should TfW have any concerns whatsoever about so-called revenue abstraction in England?

Haven't Network Rail committed to electrifiying the Severn Tunnel?

It's nothing to do with TfW which if you'd read my post correctly, you'd have understood.

Why should the WAG worry about revenue abstraction? Because it's not them who'll authorise this service, or the paths required to run it.

LNW-GW Joint · 20 Jul 2019

The initial service in 2021 doesn't seem to offer anything new, it's just a revenue raid on GWR.
Based obviously on the completion of electrification to Cardiff and the availability of IC225 sets from LNER.
I can't see ORR approving access before the end of the current GWR franchise, because of abstraction (if there are paths, that is).
What the franchising/access situation will be after the Williams review and fallout is anybody's guess.
Not a done deal at all.
Has there been any sort of Network Rail response to the application?

swt_passenger · 20 Jul 2019

LNW-GW Joint said:
The initial service in 2021 doesn't seem to offer anything new, it's just a revenue raid on GWR.
Based obviously on the completion of electrification to Cardiff and the availability of IC225 sets from LNER.
I can't see ORR approving access before the end of the current GWR franchise, because of abstraction (if there are paths, that is).
What the franchising/access situation will be after the Williams review and fallout is anybody's guess.
Not a done deal at all.
Has there been any sort of Network Rail response to the application?

DfT and Amey/Keolis responded negatively. It’s linked in an earlier post, #104
Remember though it isn’t a full track access application, but a 2 page notification for interested parties to request an “economic equilibrium test”.

I firmly expect it’ll be a long time before the normal ORR “Form P” is ever seen...

route:oxford · 20 Jul 2019

tiptoptaff said:
It's nothing to do with TfW which if you'd read my post correctly, you'd have understood.

Why should the WAG worry about revenue abstraction? Because it's not them who'll authorise this service, or the paths required to run it.

You still haven't given a valid reason for anyone in Wales being concerned about so-called revenue abstraction in England.

Isn't rail in Wales either devolved or close to being devolved?

hexagon789 · 20 Jul 2019

swt_passenger said:
That’s exactly what the revised application to ORR says. (Post #121)

Cheers, I'll take a look back. Still doesn't solve the present issue of Severn Tunnel in the mean time though.

ainsworth74 · 20 Jul 2019

route:oxford said:
You still haven't given a valid reason for anyone in Wales being concerned about so-called revenue abstraction in England.

Because decisions on Open Access are taken by the ORR. So even if the Welsh Government are deeply in love with the proposal and don't care about any abstraction effecting England only it won't matter if the ORR decide it's to abstractive and refuse permission.

LNW-GW Joint · 21 Jul 2019

route:oxford said:
You still haven't given a valid reason for anyone in Wales being concerned about so-called revenue abstraction in England.
Isn't rail in Wales either devolved or close to being devolved?

Cross-border services are not devolved, hence ICGW, ICWC and XC franchises operating into Wales stay with the DfT.
TfW call in England to a spec and funding agreed with DfT.
GWR is a cross-border franchise let by the DfT and the impact on its finances by an open access operator is a DfT/ORR matter.
Would WG care if GWR stopped running through the Severn Tunnel as a result?
I think they would.

In an NR context, Wales Route operates some lines in England (in the Marches and west of Patchway), and LNW Route operates some lines in Wales (around Chester).

Mollman · 22 Jul 2019

The WaG might be interested in linking it with the new West Wales Parkway:

The West Wales Parkway scheme - estimated to cost about £20m - would be built on a line mainly used for freight and it is hoped it will cut the number of cars on the M4.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-49061910

WelshBluebird · 22 Jul 2019

I wonder if the Welsh Government are playing a bit of a game here. Backing, and making noises about this, knowing that it is likely never to happen because of the existing franchise and open access rules, in order to then make a fuss when it is turned down about Westminster denying Wales a better overall rail service.

800002 · 22 Jul 2019

WelshBluebird said:
I wonder if the Welsh Government are playing a bit of a game here. Backing, and making noises about this, knowing that it is likely never to happen because of the existing franchise and open access rules, in order to then make a fuss when it is turned down about Westminster denying Wales a better overall rail service.

You cynic you!

That would require high level thought processes to be be thinking ahead. (since when were governments able to do that?)

krus_aragon · 22 Jul 2019

I think they could also be doing it to cajole interest in serving West Wales and the Swansea District line with London trains: "Well if you won't, perhaps operator X will?"

Clip · 22 Jul 2019

route:oxford said:
You still haven't given a valid reason for anyone in Wales being concerned about so-called revenue abstraction in England.

Because a very large part of the journey just so happens to be in England and it won't be them who make the final decision on it.

Wilts Wanderer · 22 Jul 2019

It will never happen. Anyone in the WG who thinks Yeowart can somehow magically obtain better faster paths than GWR have achieved (with higher performance rolling stock than his proposal!) are seriously deluding themselves.

tiptoptaff · 22 Jul 2019

Wilts Wanderer said:
It will never happen. Anyone in the WG who thinks Yeowart can somehow magically obtain better faster paths than GWR have achieved (with higher performance rolling stock than his proposal!) are seriously deluding themselves.

Conversations I've had with some TfW uppers lead me to fully believe the WAG ARE deluded.
Yeowart has presented this idea and said "look how amazing it would be" and the WAG have gone "oh wow yes that would be amazing!" And have got themselves all giddy about it. Rest of the industry knows better, of course

Wilts Wanderer · 22 Jul 2019

tiptoptaff said:
Conversations I've had with some TfW uppers lead me to fully believe the WAG ARE deluded.
Yeowart has presented this idea and said "look how amazing it would be" and the WAG have gone "oh wow yes that would be amazing!" And have got themselves all giddy about it. Rest of the industry knows better, of course

Perhaps Yeowart has his own personal pair of railway lines between South Wales and London no one else knows about. The ‘Up & Down Yeowart’...

800002 · 22 Jul 2019

Wilts Wanderer said:
Perhaps Yeowart has his own personal pair of railway lines between South Wales and London no one else knows about. The ‘Up & Down Yeowart’...

Surely, on an houly timetable, he would only require an Up / Down Yeowart single line with passing loops?

yorkie · 22 Jul 2019

Please use this thread to discuss the actual proposals.

Please use Suggestions for services along the Swansea district line to discuss suggestions for service provision along the Swansea District route and whether or not Grand Union might operate on this line

Please use Could Grand Union use HSTs for their proposed service to Cardiff to discuss whether they should consider using HSTs.

And please create a new thread for any other ideas/suggestions.

Thanks!

Tomos y Tanc · 22 Jul 2019

WelshBluebird said:
I wonder if the Welsh Government are playing a bit of a game here. Backing, and making noises about this, knowing that it is likely never to happen because of the existing franchise and open access rules, in order to then make a fuss when it is turned down about Westminster denying Wales a better overall rail service.

That sounds plausible. Creating a fuss about one thing in order to get something else entirely is Politics 101.

The Welsh Government played DFT very well during the devolution of the franchise negotiations, pretending they wanted all sorts of XC routes included in the Welsh franchise. What they really wanted, and what they got, was to extend the TfW network to Liverpool. The anticipated direct services to both north and south Wales will, of course, benefit Liverpool based passengers as well as Welsh based ones.

Recently there's been a lot of media noise about how poor the services linking south Wales and Bristol are. Quite right too. I wonder if that's what the Welsh Government are really interested in.

RealTrains07 · 13 Sep 2019

Most up to date thread i could find about this

Latest issue of RAIL magazine has done an article on the Grand Union 802s for the Paddington to Llanelli service starting in 2021

The artist impression of the new trains show Transport for Wales livery on the trains?

The plan is for 8 trains made up of either 7 or 9 coaches and will start running in may 2023 (2 years after inital service start of may 2021). As said previously class 91 and mark 4 coaches will be used until then.

Not sure whether this has been mentioned before but Llanelli has been chosen as the service start and end point as it avoids longer layovers at Swansea

Grand union 802s layout will be slightly different to provide more cycle storage
With the kitchen put in between first and standard instead of being behind the cab as with other 80x trains

Sorry if some of this has been said before but just thought since nobody has posted an update on this yet i would in case

https://www.railmagazine.com/news/network/grand-union-class-802s-to-serve-llanelli-from-2023

swt_passenger · 13 Sep 2019

The latest “Rail” doesn’t seem to provide any significant new information, I think the stuff about interior layout maybe?

Using 802s for an extension to Llanelli was applied for with ORR in mid July, and discussed at that time, around post#121.

RealTrains07 · 13 Sep 2019

swt_passenger said:
The latest “Rail” doesn’t seem to provide any significant new information, I think the stuff about interior layout maybe?

Using 802s for an extension to Llanelli was applied for with ORR in mid July, and discussed at that time, around post#121.

I see. Well i guess any little update helps
I found the artists impression of the grand union unit interesting so if anything at least we have a more definite confirmation and idea of whats to come

swt_passenger · 13 Sep 2019

RealTrains07 said:
I see. Well i guess any little update helps
I found the artists impression of the grand union unit interesting so if anything at least we have a more definite confirmation and idea of whats to come

I’m very wary of Rail, doesn’t it read as though the whole story is some sort of exclusive, whereas all the key matters are about 2 months old?

RealTrains07 · 13 Sep 2019

swt_passenger said:
I’m very wary of Rail, doesn’t it read as though the whole story is some sort of exclusive, whereas all the key matters are about 2 months old?

That what i realised when i read the thread before posting

Then again RAILs article on the azumas was written as if LNER operated services out of paddington and in the west coast as well as Kings Cross :lol:

anamyd · 13 Sep 2019

RealTrains07 said:
Most up to date thread i could find about this

Latest issue of RAIL magazine has done an article on the Grand Union 802s for the Paddington to Llanelli service starting in 2021

The artist impression of the new trains show Transport for Wales livery on the trains?

The plan is for 8 trains made up of either 7 or 9 coaches and will start running in may 2023 (2 years after inital service start of may 2021). As said previously class 91 and mark 4 coaches will be used until then.

Not sure whether this has been mentioned before but Llanelli has been chosen as the service start and end point as it avoids longer layovers at Swansea

Grand union 802s layout will be slightly different to provide more cycle storage
With the kitchen put in between first and standard instead of being behind the cab as with other 80x trains

Sorry if some of this has been said before but just thought since nobody has posted an update on this yet i would in case

https://www.railmagazine.com/news/network/grand-union-class-802s-to-serve-llanelli-from-2023

I read that now-linked article on the 10th of September and laughed out loud! Already in discussions with Hitachi about an 802 order, so all they're waiting for is service approval and Hitachi will get straight to work on the 802s...?

RealTrains07 · 13 Sep 2019

anamyd said:
I read that now-linked article on the 10th of September and laughed out loud! Already in discussions with Hitachi about an 802 order, so all they're waiting for is service approval and Hitachi will get straight to work on the 802s...?

They might no even get ‘good quality’ marks 4s and class 91s if they don’t get a decision soon! :lol:

Dont think passengers will complain much

Grand Union Trains Plans to run from London to Cardiff - Now rejected by ORR

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