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First Group: General Discussion

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lincman

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47550 said:
Been a while since I have been to Ashton but I presume the routes First are surrendering don’t need deckers. Maybe the deckers are for a 409 takeover ? Pure speculation of course but you would have thought that Stagecoach would be interested in taking it on if it is as profitable as has been quoted and First are phasing a closure of Oldham if they cannot find a buyer ?
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Could it be that Oldham will not be sold until Vantage has been sorted out. The vehicles have to be maintained somewhere and Oldham is the only First depot left.
 
KendalKing

KendalKing

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Jordan Adam said:
Add to that...

15 Wright Streetdeck FCEV (Fuel-Cell Electric Vehicle) for First Aberdeen Route 19 (Council owned). The fleet numbers could possibly be in the 399xx series?
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Won't be 399xx series, as most numbers have already been used. More then likely will be 35901-35915.
 
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Volvodart

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TheGrandWazoo said:
I may well be wrong (wouldn’t be the first time) but they’re revalued every three years and First announced a worstening of the position last year.

As for any sale, I seen people do a couple of things. Either retain the liability or provide a dowry to ensure the scheme is adequately funded for the future (but gives you a clean break). The latter is what Philip Green did with BHS but got hauled back as it was deemed insufficient especially in light of the collapse.
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The pension fund actuarial valuation is due 5 April 2019, so has not been reflected in the Firstgroup accounts yet. (I assume they happen every 3 years.) The equalisation adjustment (which was the result of the recent court case and cost them £23 million this year) is only an estimate. I wonder a clean break is possible, with the actual amount currently being unknown.
 
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Mwanesh

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Rumour has it they may be more sales to Go Ahead and Stagecoach. They will be an announcement in due course.
 
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Volvodart

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I would have thought the major investors would have wanted a respected new chairman to be involved in the disposals.
 
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winston270twm

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Volvodart said:
I would have thought the major investors would have wanted a respected new chairman to be involved in the disposals.
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FGP's AGM statement from yesterday morning stated 'The Group is focused on delivering the strategy announced on 30 May at pace' It suggests as though they are not going to wait around to appoint a new Chairman before cracking on with sales.

FIRSTGROUP PLC
2019 AGM STATEMENT

FirstGroup plc ('FirstGroup', the 'Group'), a leading provider of transport
services in North America and the UK, will be holding its Annual General
Meeting ('AGM') at 2.30pm today.

Ahead of the meeting, FirstGroup notes that overall trading performance in the
first quarter has been in line and there is no change to our expectations for
the current financial year.

The Group is focused on delivering the strategy announced on 30 May at pace. By
executing the announced portfolio rationalisation plans our future emphasis
will be on the Group's core contracting businesses in North America, where we
see significant potential to generate long term, sustainable value. In parallel
with these plans, we continue to drive forward the clear strategies set for
each of our divisions. By doing so the Group will achieve further progress and
growth for shareholders, while delivering on our promises to our customers,
passengers and other stakeholders.

As previously announced, Wolfhart Hauser will step down from the Board and as
Chairman at the end of the AGM today, and Senior Independent Director David
Robbie will become interim Chairman of the Board at that time. A formal and
rigorous process to select a new Chairman in accordance with UK Corporate
Governance Code principles is well underway, overseen by David Robbie. The
Board is clear that the priority is to complete this process without delay,
while selecting a candidate with the necessary skills and experience to serve
effectively in the interests of all shareholders. The Group has consulted with
major shareholders to hear their views and suggestions, and looks forward to
updating the market of a satisfactory outcome at the earliest opportunity.

The Group is scheduled to announce interim results for the six months to the
end of September on Thursday 14 November 2019.
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overthewater

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Mwanesh said:
Rumour has it they may be more sales to Go Ahead and Stagecoach. They will be an announcement in due course.
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I would be rather surprised if National express dont end up buying something, However two points:

A: You have to think where could either buy parts of First without getting the goverment involved?
B: As we all know A land grab for land grabbing sense is an awful idea.
 
Jordan Adam

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overthewater said:
I would be rather surprised if National express dont end up buying something, However two points:

A: You have to think where could either buy parts of First without getting the goverment involved?
B: As we all know A land grab for land grabbing sense is an awful idea.
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I think with most of Scotland Stagecoach are likely out the question.

Aberdeen would give them too much of a monopoly (the only non-Stagecoach service would be the schools 52 & peak time 305 both operated by Bain's). The Torry - Northfield, Queens Road, King Street, & Bucksburn corridors would all be at high risk of CMA intervention. FSE is harder to call but again i'd suspect they'd likely have issues with the CMA, same goes for Glasgow seeing as it'll most likely be sold as one.

Although that's just my take on things. My money would still be on NX.
 
TheGrandWazoo

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winston270twm said:
FGP's AGM statement from yesterday morning stated 'The Group is focused on delivering the strategy announced on 30 May at pace' It suggests as though they are going to wait around to appoint a new Chairman before cracking on with sales.
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I don't know if I agree with that. They are looking to move "at pace" AND as Hauser has now fallen on his sword, they have to meet the requirements of corporate governance. Don't think the two things are linked.
 
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lastbus

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Jordan Adam said:
I think with most of Scotland Stagecoach are likely out the question.

Aberdeen would give them too much of a monopoly (the only non-Stagecoach service would be the schools 52 & peak time 305 both operated by Bain's). The Torry - Northfield, Queens Road, King Street, & Bucksburn corridors would all be at high risk of CMA intervention. FSE is harder to call but again i'd suspect they'd likely have issues with the CMA, same goes for Glasgow seeing as it'll most likely be sold as one.

Although that's just my take on things. My money would still be on NX.
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There are not many routes in Glasgow that first and stagecoach compete on. It would maybe be allowed.
 
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overthewater

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I don;t think Scotland is in the frame for Go Ahead and stagecoach I think its parts of England. Touch wood.
 
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winston270twm

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TheGrandWazoo said:
I don't know if I agree with that. They are looking to move "at pace" AND as Hauser has now fallen on his sword, they have to meet the requirements of corporate governance. Don't think the two things are linked.
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I don't even agree with that, I missed the 'not' going to wait......:rolleyes::oops:
 
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winston270twm

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lastbus said:
There are not many routes in Glasgow that first and stagecoach compete on. It would maybe be allowed.
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It's not about how many routes they compete on, it about percentage of the Scottish bus market Stagecoach currently controls & what it would like control if a deal was allowed
 
TheGrandWazoo

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winston270twm said:
It's not about how many routes they compete on, it about percentage of the Scottish bus market Stagecoach currently controls & what it would like control if a deal was allowed
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Absolutely. It would give Stagecoach so much of the market. Also, have people forgotten that they did own 20% of SB Holdings and were forced to divest because of monopoly concerns?

Stan Drews said:
It would be interesting to see what Stagecoach would make of First’s Essex operations?
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I imagine that they would do a very good job given how they have managed similar seemingly unpromising territory.
 
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Sandy Drew

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Some of the guessing and assumptions above are quite understandable - when, over the years the CMA, OFT, MMC, CC (did I miss any?!! ‍♂️) have applied the law inconsistently.

Indeed, some of the early decisions that went against Stagecoach were made by individuals (secretaries of state) contrary to the final decisions of said bodies. And some may say rather emotionally applied with disregard to fact.

With the CMA in recent years, it has been slightly more consistent with reviewing flows, but who is to say %%market share as indicated above will be a much more important future measure (especially for Stagecoach).

The monolithic Tesco is permitted to retain 28% of the grocery market without investigation or forced divestment. Yet, the recent Sainsbury/Asda merger plan was skewered early on.

We may yet be surprised by how this all plays out - keep up the guesswork guys
 
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overthewater

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Sandy Drew said:
We may yet be surprised by how this all plays out - keep up the guesswork guys
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If I was allowed a gusse for fun: Slough, York, Leicester, Essex, Worcester and Portsmouth is where I would think is possible for GO Ahead or Stagecoach to pick up, far away enough to not cause problem but not so far away depots can't be clamped on to existing operations. Sainsbury/Asda merger should have went ahead, the way the big 4 supermarkets were going I don't doubt Tesco and the new company would dip below 50% pretty fast.
 
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winston270twm

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Sandy Drew said:
Some of the guessing and assumptions above are quite understandable - when, over the years the CMA, OFT, MMC, CC (did I miss any?!! ‍♂️) have applied the law inconsistently.

Indeed, some of the early decisions that went against Stagecoach were made by individuals (secretaries of state) contrary to the final decisions of said bodies. And some may say rather emotionally applied with disregard to fact.

With the CMA in recent years, it has been slightly more consistent with reviewing flows, but who is to say %%market share as indicated above will be a much more important future measure (especially for Stagecoach).

The monolithic Tesco is permitted to retain 28% of the grocery market without investigation or forced divestment. Yet, the recent Sainsbury/Asda merger plan was skewered early on.

We may yet be surprised by how this all plays out - keep up the guesswork guys
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But Stagecoach already operate 8500 buses in the UK, giving them an existing market share of 26.6%, they are already on a par with Tesco's market share without any further acquisitions.

See Q&A below from Stagecoach's own site:

Q: How big is the UK bus industry?
A:
The UK bus industry supports around 250,000 jobs, as well as and thousands of others in bus manufacturing and support services. In total, there are around 32,000 buses in service in the UK.

Stagecoach is one of the biggest UK bus operators, running 8,500 buses and employing around 25,000 people across the country. Around 3 million people travel on our buses every day. Other major operators include Arriva, National Express, GoAhead and First. There are also many independent operators, as well as non-UK international transport groups.
 
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Scott mac

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The only way stagecoach will get Glasgow if 1 or 2 depots goes to a other company but stagecoach would want the biggest one
 
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PaulMc7

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Scott mac said:
The only way stagecoach will get Glasgow if 1 or 2 depots goes to a other company but stagecoach would want the biggest one
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Would be interesting to see how that would work as all of the depots outside of Glasgow have buses that run into Glasgow. Would definitely mean a lot of changes and would make it interesting for how they'd manage the routes because not having Overtown, Blantyre or Dumbarton would cause a lot of dead mileage if they still wanted to provide services to areas outside Glasgow. Don't think there's a depot currently that isn't very important to the network operating effectively
 
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