So let's get real. I think a completed platform 15 and 16 project would be excellent, but...........
Say Platforms 15 and 16 are given the go ahead!
Since the project was first mooted passenger numbers have risen steeply with a consistent longer term upwards trend at all the most relevant stations.
Piccadilly in 1997/98 - 13.7 million, 2007/8 - 20.3 million, 2017/18 - 27.7 million
Oxford Road in 1997/98 - 0.4 million, 2006/7 - 4.3 million, 2017/18 - 8.5 million.
Victoria in 1997/98 - 0.4 million, 2006/07 - 5.0 million, 2017/18 - 8.2 million.
Deansgate in 1997/98 - 0.02 million, 2007/08 - 0.1 million, 2017/18 - 0.4 million
Manchester Airport in 1997/98 - 1.1 million, 2007/08 - 2.1 million, 2017/18 - 4.6 million.
After all the necessary updating work and project planning, construction with the best will in the world couldn't start before 2025. By which time passenger numbers are likely to have increased by at least 5-10% and maybe by 25% or more.
It's understood roughly half of Piccadilly's users are using 13 and 14, maybe something in the region of 12-15 million by 2025.
Platform congestion for both passengers and trains will be even worse by then than now.
Construction will take at least 3 years, probably more. By which time passenger growth might have reached 50% from now.
BUT during the construction period where do they all go?
I may be OK?
Sheffield - Manchester stoppers, no change.
Cleethorpes - Manchester Airport, no change.
By then truncated Nottingham - Liverpool can run in via Marple and Ashburys round to Victoria and beyond.
Not so fast. Where does everything else go during the construction period, especially the Manchester Airport routes? There are only so many tracks and platforms. Reversals are a pain. Freight?
OK, much of the work can be done with tracks open, but how much and for how long would major blockades be needed?
We already have pressure on all lines leading into Piccadilly through Stockport and TOCs have franchise commitments that are likely to add more.
Maybe it's getting easier to see how it's a lot simpler to sit on hands and leave the project for the next incumbent/generation.
Maybe my idea of a totally tunnelled new route dead straight between east side of Sheffield beneath Midland to west side of Manchester beneath Piccadilly taking 20-25 minutes might not seem so crazy in another 20 years when the 15 and 16 project has still not been confirmed. And another linked tunnel straight to Leeds, with a third to complete the triangle between Sheffield and Leeds. Maglev anyone?
But doomsayers, gloomsters and the like look up. With my magic wand it will happen with money falling from the sky. Northern Powerhouse Rail is almost here with a vengeance. I am dreaming, of course.