Electric Cars - likely to reduce rail travel?

AndrewE · 19 Jul 2019

Bald Rick said:
Oh. I didn’t go into the detail.

Nevertheless, I agree it would be a good thing to do. Quite a money spinner too, for whoever bites the bullet. Particularly with the Tesla 3: 300 miles range, plenty of boot space, perfect lakes runabout.

Except that there is too much traffic in and around the lake district already. If you can hire a car when you get there, why can you not get a bus or use a taxi? or just walk?
Universal mobility is a curse (well, it is for the people who don't see it as their right, or who can't afford it, or who value what was there before honey-pots got utterly choked by people turning up on a whim, those drivers having invested no personal effort whatsoever in getting there.)

RailUK Forums

Bald Rick · 19 Jul 2019

AndrewE said:
Except that there is too much traffic in and around the lake district already. If you can hire a car when you get there, why can you not get a bus or use a taxi? or just walk?
Universal mobility is a curse (well, it is for the people who don't see it as their right, or who can't afford it, or who value what was there before honey-pots got utterly choked by people turning up on a whim, those drivers having invested no personal effort whatsoever in getting there.)

Last time I went, I used the bus from Windermere. But, some people have more kit, small children, or travelling to places the bus doesn’t (and can’t) serve. The car very definitely has a role. Taxis are a different issue. They tend to cause more traffic, as a decent proportion of their mileage is empty (save for the driver). I would always prefer to have a hire car than a taxi in somewhere like th Lakes.

AndrewE · 19 Jul 2019

Bald Rick said:
Last time I went, I used the bus from Windermere. But, some people have more kit, small children, or travelling to places the bus doesn’t (and can’t) serve. The car very definitely has a role. Taxis are a different issue. They tend to cause more traffic, as a decent proportion of their mileage is empty (save for the driver). I would always prefer to have a hire car than a taxi in somewhere like the Lakes.

I remember a journey with my elderly Grandma by train from Torquay to Kingswear/Dartmouth, then by bus to a rural cross-roads where my aunt had booked the local taxi man (Mr Bowles, I never heard his name before or since!) to meet us and take us to their farm in the South Hams.
Rural travel doesn't depend on having a private car available. Hopefully a structural change in transport provision and an understanding of the wider environmental costs will bring about a change in people's perception of what they are entitled to...
I don't to the Lake District much now though. It used to be a regular and frequent destination for us using buses from Windermere and Penrith, and often walking between bus routes. The bus fares and even the rover ticket felt really expensive the last time we bought them!

Bletchleyite · 20 Jul 2019

AndrewE said:
Except that there is too much traffic in and around the lake district already. If you can hire a car when you get there, why can you not get a bus or use a taxi? or just walk?

Because not every journey works by public transport. And a compact 4-seat electric car with 4 people in it is not to be discouraged, anyway, it's an environmentally friendly and road-space-efficient mode of transport.

And taxis are private transport, I never quite understood why they are not treated as such. No better than a car driven by one of the passengers.

Harpers Tate · 20 Jul 2019

Bletchleyite said:
Electric cars aren't great for "trunk" journeys on motorways...

Aren't they? I haven't ever hired an EV, because I own one; it's the only vehicle at this household. Based on real life and 16k miles in 18 months (yes, a little below average) I hold exactly the opposite opinion. I wouldn't go back to an ICE by choice.

Bletchleyite · 20 Jul 2019

Harpers Tate said:
Aren't they?

No. Range is a big issue[1] - whether that affects you is whether you're the type who just wants to get there or the type who will happily take a one hour break for charging every few hours.

They'll get there, but they're not there yet. At the moment, PHEVs (plug-in hybrids) are probably more practical - they can run on petrol on the motorway but electricity in cities.

[1] Less so on Teslas, but Teslas are not priced as an affordable family car so are out of the price range of the vast majority of people who are buying Vauxhall Astras and Citroen C3s, not Mercs and BMWs.

Harpers Tate · 20 Jul 2019

As I say - your opinion is not one I share.

Bald Rick · 20 Jul 2019

Bletchleyite said:
No. Range is a big issue[1] - whether that affects you is whether you're the type who just wants to get there or the type who will happily take a one hour break for charging every few hours.

They'll get there, but they're not there yet. At the moment, PHEVs (plug-in hybrids) are probably more practical - they can run on petrol on the motorway but electricity in cities.

[1] Less so on Teslas, but Teslas are not priced as an affordable family car so are out of the price range of the vast majority of people who are buying Vauxhall Astras and Citroen C3s, not Mercs and BMWs.

But the Tesla 3 is priced closer to that of a family car. Not quite there yet, but close.

And as I said before, there’s not that many people who regularly do 250miles+ in one hit.

Bletchleyite · 20 Jul 2019

Bald Rick said:
But the Tesla 3 is priced closer to that of a family car. Not quite there yet, but close.

And as I said before, there’s not that many people who regularly do 250miles+ in one hit.

And those people who do that once in a while may be best with a small EV and hiring for a long trip. But that's a big mindset shift.

Bald Rick · 20 Jul 2019

Bletchleyite said:
And those people who do that once in a while may be best with a small EV and hiring for a long trip. But that's a big mindset shift.

Agreed - now, and for the next couple of years. The new Tesla S long Range is nudging 400miles on one charge; and there’s going to be a whole host of new models in the next year or two with ranges in the 300 mile area. The Golf sized VW ID will be there or thereabouts, and is expected to be well under £30k.

My guess is that within 3-4 years a 300-400 mile range will be pretty normal, and then all this nonsense about range anxiety and motorway driving will be a thing of the past.

The Ham · 20 Jul 2019

underbank said:
Doesn't matter, we've none of that here either. Can't even get a decent/consistent 3g mobile signal either, so 4g and 5g are still just a pipe dream.

Back to what started my comments re broadband, yes, the lack of decent infrastructure does impact on house prices. My sister has been selling her house and she was surprised that most viewers asked about broadband speeds etc., so it's definitely becoming an issue. Like the other poster said, electricity supplies are also likely to have an impact too., as are drives and/or on street charging points. It could well polarise house prices, i.e. increase prices for houses with good power/connectivity and reduce those without.

Have you considered satellite internet with a fixed speed of 30mb/s.

It does have download limits (based on the price paid) and tends to be more expensive than broadband, but if speed is critical it does give an alternative option.

The Ham · 20 Jul 2019

underbank said:
Oh dear! Despite government encouragement/support, broadband is still pretty patchy in rural areas, in terms of whether there is any at all, and if there is, the typically pretty low speeds available. So, if that's anything to go by, not looking for for national grid infrastructure improvements in rural areas which is where you think there may be more use of electric vehicles.

Something like 15% of people live in rural areas, however under the government definition of rural includes any settlement with upto 10,000 people. This tends to make up a significant amount of this population.

Government support for broadband rollout is continuing, however there's ways it's doing this for fairly small amounts of money.

A good example of this is providing 100mb/s broadband to 100 schools (although they are looking for more as not all of the £3 million budget was spent). This means that the schools benefit but then so do the local community as there's then Fiber to their town/village which they can then use. For more details:
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/more-than-100-rural-schools-to-get-gigabit-speed-broadband

The Ham · 20 Jul 2019

AM9 said:
I wonder how many car owners actually make journeys of anywhere near 300 miles, and then how many of those who make such journeys are made per year.

You also need to ask how many do so without a break (at an average speed of 60mph that's 5 hours straight if driving, even at an average of 75mph that's 4 hours).

I know someone who drive their Tesla from the UK to Poland, they said that by the time they had stopped for a loo break and a quick coffee the car was ready to go again.

This is likely something that most people would want to do at least every 4 hours, especially if there's small children/older people who tend not to have the bladder control which the general population trends to have.

Like walking, cycling or using public transport; everyone had an excuse at to why they shouldn't get an EV. It just boils down to how valid that excuse actually is.

It's not uncommon for people to justify owning a large car because they do one journey a year which requires it. In reality it would probably be cheaper to have a smaller car and hire the correct one for that trip.

underbank · 21 Jul 2019

The Ham said:
It's not uncommon for people to justify owning a large car because they do one journey a year which requires it. In reality it would probably be cheaper to have a smaller car and hire the correct one for that trip.

Yes, reminds me of all these house TV programs where there's only 2 of them but they need 4 bedrooms for when the family comes at Christmas! Just make them stay in a nearby hotel instead!

Bletchleyite · 21 Jul 2019

underbank said:
Yes, reminds me of all these house TV programs where there's only 2 of them but they need 4 bedrooms for when the family comes at Christmas! Just make them stay in a nearby hotel instead!

Like many things it's not that simple. Car hire firms are often shysters who like to palm off pre-existing damage on you by billing your credit card, and it's a faff. There are also niche cases like tall people who can drive some cars but not others (which isn't always predicated on the size of the car - I've got more chance with a Fiat Punto than I have with a Vauxhall Astra Estate - it's often the shape of the dash) - you can never specify exactly what you want to hire for some reason I've never quite understood, not even for an extra fee. Then what if my long journey is to go camping or climbing (as it often is) - they'll fuss about the mud. Whereas my car can get as filthy and dinged as I like and I can just not care about it.

That's the thing that will pose a big challenge for any move away from owning your own car.

With hotels, what if it's fully booked? Closed for Christmas? Expensive? There's no great issue with people sitting on larger houses anyway (privately owned, not Council) - the shortage is in smaller homes. If you've got the money property isn't a terrible place for it, really. It's never going to be worth £0 barring a major war or something.

radamfi · 21 Jul 2019

Bletchleyite said:
There's no great issue with people sitting on larger houses anyway (privately owned, not Council) - the shortage is in smaller homes.

So convert the underutilised larger houses into flats, or knock them down altogether and rebuild as purpose built flats and small houses.

Bletchleyite · 21 Jul 2019

radamfi said:
So convert the underutilised larger houses into flats

A lot of Victorian properties already have been. Newer houses aren't always worth doing if the layout doesn't well suit it - Victorian terraces are very suited to this because the staircase and entrance hall tends to be separate from the rest of the house.

or knock them down altogether and rebuild as purpose built flats and small houses.

There's plenty of land (both green and brownfield - tons of the latter in cities) - build afresh on that.

HSTEd · 21 Jul 2019

radamfi said:
So convert the underutilised larger houses into flats, or knock them down altogether and rebuild as purpose built flats and small houses.

Unfortunately bedrooms are not fungible.

You can try to turn a four bedroom house into four one bedroom houses, but it is likely you will get two or possibly three bad one bedroom houses instead.

Just have to build more homes.
There seems to be little point in knocking down extant housing stock to build replacements rather than just building the replacements somewhere else!

Also roof gardens are a good idea given that half the average modern housing plot is covered by the house. But they would have to be proper ones, not just a patio.

The Ham · 21 Jul 2019

Bletchleyite said:
Like many things it's not that simple. Car hire firms are often shysters who like to palm off pre-existing damage on you by billing your credit card, and it's a faff. There are also niche cases like tall people who can drive some cars but not others (which isn't always predicated on the size of the car - I've got more chance with a Fiat Punto than I have with a Vauxhall Astra Estate - it's often the shape of the dash) - you can never specify exactly what you want to hire for some reason I've never quite understood, not even for an extra fee. Then what if my long journey is to go camping or climbing (as it often is) - they'll fuss about the mud. Whereas my car can get as filthy and dinged as I like and I can just not care about it.

That's the thing that will pose a big challenge for any move away from owning your own car.

With hotels, what if it's fully booked? Closed for Christmas? Expensive? There's no great issue with people sitting on larger houses anyway (privately owned, not Council) - the shortage is in smaller homes. If you've got the money property isn't a terrible place for it, really. It's never going to be worth £0 barring a major war or something.

There's always going to be some exceptions, however the number of very tall people is fairly limited. There's always going to say "my case xxxxx means that it'll not work for everyone" however that isn't the case for a significant number of people.

Most (good) car hire companies now have a policy of any damage under the size of a 10p (it's something like that) doesn't count.

Lucan · 22 Jul 2019

Bletchleyite said:
And those people who [do a long journey] once in a while may be best with a small EV and hiring for a long trip. But that's a big mindset shift.

It will take a lot of mindset shifting in my case.

For work I have often travelled by train to the nearest main station and hired a car from there. The flaff, foul-ups and delays are incredible. This is despite my company having standing contracts with national (and international) up-market car hire companies. They have included long delays in the car turning up, complete failures to provide a car, my inability to leave the car anywhere near the station on return (their "reserved" parking bays have been occupied) and having to walk a mile with a suitcase to the car hire depot because they did not have a spare driver to bring the car to the station.

I have also hired vans occasionally for myself and then the beaucracy is even worse. The form-filling seems endless and apparently modelled on the practices of the Stasi.

J-Rod · 26 Jul 2019

Been doing ALOT of research on this lately. So much so that I'm getting shot of my new(ish) Passat on Monday because by the time I come to trade it in for something in a couple of years time, it'll be worthless (keeping my older Golf until the current price of EVs drops a touch). ICE cars have 3-4 years left and Tesla is SO far ahead of the competition it's actually untrue (and now with the base Model 3 on sale for the same price as the equivalent BMW 3 Series, just watch them fall).

This video is totally worth a watch:

And to anyone that says "Ooh, but I like driving for 10 hours at a time so EVs are AWFUL," - good for you. Try asking the millions of people who drive long distances with kids the same question.

Bald Rick · 26 Jul 2019

J-Rod said:
Been doing ALOT of research on this lately. So much so that I'm getting shot of my new(ish) Passat on Monday because by the time I come to trade it in for something in a couple of years time, it'll be worthless (keeping my older Golf until the current price of EVs drops a touch). ICE cars have 3-4 years left and Tesla is SO far ahead of the competition it's actually untrue (and now with the base Model 3 on sale for the same price as the equivalent BMW 3 Series, just watch them fall).

This video is totally worth a watch:

And to anyone that says "Ooh, but I like driving for 10 hours at a time so EVs are AWFUL," - good for you. Try asking the millions of people who drive long distances with kids the same question.

Yep, I’ve been doing a lot of research too. My car is more than a decade old so residual value is not so much of an issue. However maintenance bills are, so it’s new(er)car time. I’m hanging on till next year, when there will be much more choice, with the launch of the electric Mini, VW ID and others in the £25k bracket. This will make the market more competitive (I wouldn’t be surprised to see Tesla drop the price of their 3 by a couple of Gs), but importantly it will play into the fleet buyers market. The Tesla 3 and VW ID will both have a range that should meet most fleet requirements, and if fleet buyers (eg hire companies) start buying these in sizeable numbers there will then be a reasonable ‘nearly new’ market. And that will be that.

J-Rod · 26 Jul 2019

Bald Rick said:
Yep, I’ve been doing a lot of research too. My car is more than a decade old so residual value is not so much of an issue. However maintenance bills are, so it’s new(er)car time. I’m hanging on till next year, when there will be much more choice, with the launch of the electric Mini, VW ID and others in the £25k bracket. This will make the market more competitive (I wouldn’t be surprised to see Tesla drop the price of their 3 by a couple of Gs), but importantly it will play into the fleet buyers market. The Tesla 3 and VW ID will both have a range that should meet most fleet requirements, and if fleet buyers (eg hire companies) start buying these in sizeable numbers there will then be a reasonable ‘nearly new’ market. And that will be that.

Now, if Tesla did a scrappage scheme...!!

You're right about the nearly new market and hire companies. That, indeed, will be that. ha

For anyone reading this and sitting on the fence currently, go watch a few YouTube channels ("Our Ludicrous Future" & "Fully Charged", for example). Personally, I'm finding this future amazingly exciting as things are developing so rapidly right now it's insane.

Bald Rick · 26 Jul 2019

One thing often missed in all the analysis on EVs is maintence costs. Never again will you need an oil change / oil or air filters changed, gearbox oil, a new exhaust, etc etc. Of course some things will still require maintenance / replacement (tyres, wipers, suspension), but the batteries and motor(s) will not. Brakes will need replacement much less often (I write having recently had new pads and a cou0e of new calliper for a couple of hundred quid).

All this adds up over the life of the car, on top of the savings in fuel, congestion / emissions charges etc.

Lucan · 27 Jul 2019

Bald Rick said:
One thing often missed in all the analysis on EVs is maintence costs.

I thought you were going to say that people missed the fact that EVs will still have maintenance costs. On the contrary, your claim that EVs will gave lower costs is something that we keep hearing about over and over again. We've got the message.

I can't help feeling though that the costs will level themselves similar to existing IC costs because that is what the market has been shown to stand. I can imagine : "Yes sir, this regenerative braking is very high tech [... blah blah technobabble blah blah technobabble ...] and I'm afraid its control module needs replacing. But the good news is that I can source one for only £1500, that's £500 less than the list price you know."

It is like how computerised diagnostics of cars, which were supposed to cut repair costs by pinpointing where faults lie, have raised them. There was a time when an experienced foreman would suck his teeth and conclude that you needed a new timing chain. Now they will charge the wrong side of £50 just to plug your car into their computer and look at the screen, and it is still not guaranteed to get it right.

Bald Rick · 27 Jul 2019

Lucan said:
I thought you were going to say that people missed the fact that EVs will still have maintenance costs. On the contrary, your claim that EVs will gave lower costs is something that we keep hearing about over and over again. We've got the message.

I can't help feeling though that the costs will level themselves similar to existing IC costs because that is what the market has been shown to stand. I can imagine : "Yes sir, this regenerative braking is very high tech [... blah blah technobabble blah blah technobabble ...] and I'm afraid its control module needs replacing. But the good news is that I can source one for only £1500, that's £500 less than the list price you know."

It is like how computerised diagnostics of cars, which were supposed to cut repair costs by pinpointing where faults lie, have raised them. There was a time when an experienced foreman would suck his teeth and conclude that you needed a new timing chain. Now they will charge the wrong side of £50 just to plug your car into their computer and look at the screen, and it is still not guaranteed to get it right.

Funnily enough I had a new cam belt on my car last month. £400!

I agree that there will be different types of parts to replace etc, but I do think that service intervals will be longer, and the service itself should be quicker, and with fewer consumables (no cam belts!). As you say, it may well all be possible by connecting a laptop (by WiFi, of course). Indeed I’d go a step further and suggest that the car will be able to identify issues itself and present them to you on the in car screen, having already emailed it to the garage. I’m sure some cars do this now? Some Trains do certainly!

In the long run, I expect that the average cost of driving will be broadly the same, simply because of the tax take for government.

Bletchleyite · 27 Jul 2019

J-Rod said:
ICE cars have 3-4 years left

I strongly disagree. I would say 10-15 years based on the general flow of the used market (including that we don't know if batteries will hold up as well as petrol engines). The only way it will be shorter than that is legislation, but the outcome of that (for good or bad) will be that car ownership will become something for the rich only.

and Tesla is SO far ahead of the competition it's actually untrue (and now with the base Model 3 on sale for the same price as the equivalent BMW 3 Series, just watch them fall).

A new BMW 3 Series is not accessible to the vast majority of drivers. When a family equivalent of say the Citroen C3 Picasso or Vauxhall Astra or other cars in that market comes along, then the process of the death of the ICE will start apace. Until then, it's solely the preserve of the well-off.

jon0844 · 27 Jul 2019

Lucan said:
EVs are useless for me. It depends on your lifestyle. A town centre (unless it is a tourist town) is the last place you should put chargers because most visitors have come a relatively short distance for the shopping, and they should have charged at home before they left. Can't charge at home? - an EV is not for you.

I'd probably not need a huge range very often, but unless I want to own more than one car (or hire one) then I'd want a car capable of relatively short drives (10-20 mile commute sort of thing) and that road trip, where you need to charge on the way.

Personally, I'd prefer to have a small petrol/diesel generator in the car to allow me to continue - even if needing to refill a small fuel tank at regular internals - than hope to have a fast charging space in a town or service station (which I would normally not want to spend money at, so waiting an hour to charge would likely mean getting ripped off for food and drink).

Lucan said:
As for hotels, we are already hearing many "charger rage" stories about some EV owners hogging the charging bays all night, not bothering to move their EV out the way when it's done. I don't want to get involved, for the present at least.

It happens in my town, with people getting a free parking space for work (it's 3 hours max for other spaces) so the car is on charge from 0830 until 1700-1730. It has also been said that in some cases the car isn't even plugged in, but I have no idea if they're ticketed.

If electric cars take off then my town having TWO spaces isn't really going to cut it. How are these spaces funded? As in, if the car industry sell tens of thousands of electric cars - how does the industry ensure the network of charging points is increased accordingly?

Bald Rick · 27 Jul 2019

Bletchleyite said:
I strongly disagree. I would say 10-15 years based on the general flow of the used market (including that we don't know if batteries will hold up as well as petrol engines). The only way it will be shorter than that is legislation, but the outcome of that (for good or bad) will be that car ownership will become something for the rich only.

A new BMW 3 Series is not accessible to the vast majority of drivers. When a family equivalent of say the Citroen C3 Picasso or Vauxhall Astra or other cars in that market comes along, then the process of the death of the ICE will start apace. Until then, it's solely the preserve of the well-off.

I agree with the 10 year horizon, but that really does depend on the level of incentives (positive and negative*) that governments / transport authorities set for purchase / leasing and running such vehicles.

Whilst a new 3 series isn’t accessible to a majority of drivers, there are still a lot around. What are accessible to a lot of drivers are the VW Golf, Nissan Qashqai, and Ford Focus. These represent the current* top 3 ‘family’ size cars by new sales in the U.K., and 3 of the top 5 overall. Landing right in this segment in the next 6-12 months are the VW ID and the DS3 Crossback E-tense (amongst others), and most other manufacturers aren’t far behind. Ford’s version is due in 2021 AIUI. All will be more expensive up front, but on HP / PCP deals etc it will be perhaps an extra £50-100/month. Which you can easily save in fuel and potentially* other charges*.

Interestingly, the marketing blurb for the new LEVC London taxis majors on the all in monthly cost rather than the up front cost, and I suspect that mainstream manufacturers will do the same. All told I the suspect that the resistance* to using electric will fall away rapidly.

* puns intended.

HSTEd · 27 Jul 2019

Also mass adoption of electric cars will put electricity demand through the roof.
And the Government is still in denial of that fact and pretending their beloved free market will handle it for them.

Electric Cars - likely to reduce rail travel?

Established Member

RailUK Forums

Veteran Member

Established Member

Veteran Member

Established Member

Veteran Member

Established Member

Veteran Member

Veteran Member

Veteran Member

Established Member

Established Member

Established Member

Established Member

Veteran Member

Established Member

Veteran Member

Veteran Member

Established Member

Established Member

Member

Veteran Member

Member

Veteran Member

Established Member

Veteran Member

Veteran Member

Veteran Member

Veteran Member

Veteran Member